Associations Between Alcohol Use, Antiretroviral Therapy Use, and Viral Load Suppression Among People Living with HIV in Rural Central Uganda.

Alcohol use among people living with HIV (PWH) is common and may negatively affect engagement in HIV care. We evaluated the relationships between alcohol use, ART use, and viral suppression among PWH in Uganda. PATH/Ekkubo was a trial evaluating a linkage to HIV care intervention in four Ugandan districts, Nov 2015-Sept 2021. Our analytical sample included: (1) baseline data from individuals not enrolled in the intervention trial (previously diagnosed HIV+); and 12-month follow-up data from the control group (newly diagnosed or previously diagnosed, but not in care). Level of alcohol use was categorized using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C): none (AUDIT-C = 0), low (women = 1-2, men = 1-3), medium (women = 3-5, men = 4-5), high/very high (6-12). Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated associations between alcohol use, ART use and viral suppression (a viral load of < 20); we also stratified by gender. Among 931 PWH, medium (OR: 0.43 [95% CI 0.25-0.72]) and high/very high (OR: 0.22 [95% CI 0.11-0.42]) levels of alcohol use were associated with lower odds of being on ART. In a sub-sample of 664, medium use (OR: 0.63 [95% CI 0.41-0.97]) was associated with lower odds of viral suppression. However, this association was not statistically significant when restricting to those on ART, suggesting the relationship between alcohol use and viral suppression is explained by ART use. Among men, high/very high, and among women, medium alcohol use levels were associated with lower odds of being on ART and being virally suppressed. Interventions for PWH who use higher levels of alcohol may be needed to optimize the benefits of Uganda's Universal Test and Treat strategy.

Relative Cost and Infectious Days Averted Associated With Rapid Gonorrhea and Chlamydia Testing Among Men Who Have Sex With Men.

BACKGROUND: Standard-of-care nucleic acid amplification tests (routine NAATs) for Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) can take several days to result and therefore delay treatment. Rapid point-of-care GC/CT NAAT (rapid NAAT) could reduce the time to treatment and therefore onward transmission. This study evaluated the incremental cost per infectious day averted and overall cost of implementation associated with rapid compared with routine NAAT. METHODS: Prospective sexually transmitted infection (STI) treatment data from men who have sex with men and transgender women in San Diego who received rapid NAAT between November 2018 and February 2021 were evaluated. Historical time from testing to treatment for routine NAAT was abstracted from the literature. Costs per test for rapid and routine NAAT were calculated using a micro-costing approach. The incremental cost per infectious day averted comparing rapid to routine NAAT and the costs of rapid GC/CT NAAT implementation in San Diego Public Health STI clinics were calculated. RESULTS: Overall, 2333 individuals underwent rapid NAAT with a median time from sample collection to treatment of 2 days compared with 7 to 14 days for routine NAAT equating to a reduction of 5 to 12 days. The cost of rapid and routine GC/CT NAAT was $57.86 and $18.38 per test, respectively, with a cost-effectiveness of between $2.43 and $5.82 per infectious day averted. The incremental cost of rapid NAAT improved when at least 2000 tests were performed annually. CONCLUSIONS: Although rapid GC/CT NAAT is more expensive than routine testing, the reduction of infectious days between testing and treatment may reduce transmission and provide improved STI treatment services to patients.

The health equity implications of the Health Resources and Services Administration's Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program.

OBJECTIVE: Investigate the role of the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program (RWHAP) - which funds services for vulnerable and historically disadvantaged populations with HIV - in reducing health inequities among people with HIV over a 10-year horizon. DESIGN: We use an agent-based microsimulation model to incorporate the complexity of the program and long-time horizon. METHODS: We use a composite measure (the Theil index) to evaluate the health equity implications of the RWHAP for each of four subgroups (based on race and ethnicity, age, gender, and HIV transmission category) and two outcomes (probability of being in care and treatment and probability of being virally suppressed). We compare results with the RWHAP fully funded versus a counterfactual scenario, in which the medical and support services funded by the RWHAP are not available. RESULTS: The model indicates the RWHAP will improve health equity across all demographic subgroups and outcomes over a 10-year horizon. In Year 10, the Theil index for race and ethnicity is 99% lower for both outcomes under the RWHAP compared to the non-RWHAP scenario; 71-93% lower across HIV transmission categories; 31-44% lower for age; and 73-75% lower for gender. CONCLUSION: Given the large number of people served by the RWHAP and our findings on its impact on equity, the RWHAP represents an important vehicle for achieving the health equity goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy (2022-2025) and the Ending the HIV Epidemic Initiative goal of reducing new infections by 90% by 2030.

Scale-up of Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment in Prisons Is Both Cost-effective and Key to Hepatitis C Virus Elimination.

Background: The Surveillance and Treatment of Prisoners With Hepatitis C (SToP-C) study demonstrated that scaling up of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment reduced hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of scaling up HCV treatment in statewide prison services incorporating long-term outcomes across custodial and community settings. Methods: A dynamic model of incarceration and HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) in New South Wales, Australia, was extended to include former PWID and those with long-term HCV progression. Using Australian costing data, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of scaling up HCV treatment in prisons by 44% (as achieved by the SToP-C study) for 10 years (2021-2030) before reducing to baseline levels, compared to a status quo scenario. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated by comparing the differences in costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between the scale-up and status quo scenarios over 40 years (2021-2060) discounted at 5% per annum. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Scaling up HCV treatment in the statewide prison service is projected to be cost-effective with a mean ICER of A$12 968/QALY gained. The base-case scenario gains 275 QALYs over 40 years at a net incremental cost of A$3.6 million. Excluding DAA pharmaceutical costs, the mean ICER is reduced to A$6 054/QALY. At the willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50 000/QALY, 100% of simulations are cost-effective at various discount rates, time horizons, and changes of treatment levels in prison and community. Conclusions: Scaling up HCV testing and treatment in prisons is highly cost-effective and should be considered a priority in the national elimination strategy. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT02064049.

Cost-effectiveness of a police education program on HIV and overdose among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

Background: Incarceration is associated with drug-related harms among people who inject drugs (PWID). We trained >1800 police officers in Tijuana, Mexico on occupational safety and HIV/HCV, harm reduction, and decriminalization reforms (Proyecto Escudo). We evaluated its effect on incarceration, population impact and cost-effectiveness on HIV and fatal overdose among PWID. Methods: We assessed self-reported recent incarceration in a longitudinal cohort of PWID before and after Escudo. Segmented regression was used to compare linear trends in log risk of incarceration among PWID pre-Escudo (2012-2015) and post-Escudo (2016-2018). We estimated population impact using a dynamic model of HIV transmission and fatal overdose among PWID, with incarceration associated with syringe sharing and fatal overdose. The model was calibrated to HIV and incarceration patterns in Tijuana. We compared a scenario with Escudo (observed incarceration declines for 2 years post-Escudo among PWID from the segmented regression) compared to a counterfactual of no Escudo (continuation of stable pre-Escudo trends), assessing cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective. Using a 2-year intervention effect and 50-year time horizon, we determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, in 2022 USD per disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] averted). Findings: Compared to stable incarceration pre-Escudo, for every three-month interval in the post-Escudo period, recent incarceration among PWID declined by 21% (adjusted relative risk = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.68-0.91). Based on these declines, we estimated 1.7% [95% interval: 0.7%-3.5%] of new HIV cases and 12.2% [4.5%-26.6%] of fatal overdoses among PWID were averted in the 2 years post-Escudo, compared to a counterfactual without Escudo. Escudo was cost-effective (ICER USD 3746/DALY averted compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of $4842-$13,557). Interpretation: Escudo is a cost-effective structural intervention that aligned policing practices and human-rights-based public health practices, which could serve as a model for other settings where policing constitutes structural HIV and overdose risk among PWID. Funding: National Institute on Drug Abuse, UC MEXUS CONACyT, and the San Diego Center for AIDS Research (SD CFAR).

Changes in incidence of hepatitis C virus reinfection and access to direct-acting antiviral therapies in people with HIV from six countries, 2010-19: an analysis of data from a consortium of prospective cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Reinfection after successful treatment with direct-acting antivirals is hypothesised to undermine efforts to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people with HIV. We aimed to assess changes in incidence of HCV reinfection among people with HIV following the introduction of direct-acting antivirals, and the proportion of all incident cases attributable to reinfection. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data on HCV reinfection in people with HIV after spontaneous or treatment-induced clearance of HCV from six cohorts contributing data to the International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC) in Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019. Participants were eligible if they had evidence of an HCV infection (HCV antibody or RNA positive test) followed by spontaneous clearance or treatment-induced clearance, with at least one HCV RNA test after clearance enabling measurement of reinfection. We assessed differences in first reinfection incidence between direct-acting antiviral access periods (pre-direct-acting antiviral, limited access [access restricted to people with moderate or severe liver disease and other priority groups], and broad access [access for all patients with chronic HCV]) using Poisson regression. We estimated changes in combined HCV incidence (primary and reinfection) and the relative contribution of infection type by calendar year. FINDINGS: Overall, 6144 people with HIV who were at risk of HCV reinfection (median age 49 years [IQR 42-54]; 4989 [81%] male; 2836 [46%] men who have sex with men; 2360 [38%] people who inject drugs) were followed up for 17 303 person-years and were included in this analysis. The incidence of first HCV reinfection was stable during the period before the introduction of direct-acting antivirals (pre-introduction period; 4·1 cases per 100 person-years, 95% CI 2·8-6·0). Compared with the pre-introduction period, the average incidence of reinfection was 4% lower during the period of limited access (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0·96, 95% CI 0·78-1·19), and 28% lower during the period of broad access (0·72, 0·60-0·86). Between 2015 and 2019, the proportion of incident HCV infections due to reinfection increased, but combined incidence declined by 34%, from 1·02 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·96-1·07) in 2015 to 0·67 cases per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·59-0·75) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: HCV reinfection incidence and combined incidence declined in people with HIV following direct-acting antiviral introduction, suggesting reinfection has not affected elimination efforts among people with HIV in InCHEHC countries. The proportion of incident HCV cases due to reinfection was highest during periods of broad access to direct-acting antivirals, highlighting the importance of reducing ongoing risks and continuing testing in people at risk. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Determining Herd Immunity Thresholds for Hepatitis A Virus Transmission to Inform Vaccination Strategies Among People Who Inject Drugs in 16†US States.

BACKGROUND: Widespread outbreaks of person-to-person transmitted hepatitis A virus (HAV), particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), continue across the United States and globally. However, the herd immunity threshold and vaccination coverage required to prevent outbreaks are unknown. We used surveillance data and dynamic modeling to estimate herd immunity thresholds among PWID in 16 US states. METHODS: We used a previously published dynamic model of HAV transmission calibrated to surveillance data from outbreaks involving PWID in 16 states. Using state-level calibrated models, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R0) and herd immunity threshold for PWID in each state. We performed a meta-analysis of herd immunity thresholds to determine the critical vaccination coverage required to prevent most HAV outbreaks among PWID. RESULTS: Estimates of R0 for HAV infection ranged from 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9-2.5) for North Carolina to 5.0 (95% CI, 4.5-5.6) for West Virginia. Corresponding herd immunity thresholds ranged from 55% (95% CI, 47%-61%) for North Carolina to 80% (95% CI, 78%-82%) for West Virginia. Based on the meta-analysis, we estimated a pooled herd immunity threshold of 64% (95% CI, 61%-68%; 90% prediction interval, 52%-76%) among PWID. Using the prediction interval upper bound (76%) and assuming 95% vaccine efficacy, we estimated that vaccination coverage of 80% could prevent most HAV outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatitis A vaccination programs in the United States may need to achieve vaccination coverage of at least 80% among PWID in order to prevent most HAV outbreaks among this population.

Annual N95 respirator fit-testing: an unnecessary burden on healthcare.

US regulations mandate annual N95 mask fit testing for healthcare workers, but the optimal testing interval is unknown. In our study using data from 12,565 healthcare workers, the probability of survival free from fit-test failure after 3 years was 99.4%, suggesting that less frequent fit testing every 3 years would be safe.

Incidence of hepatitis C virus infection in the prison setting: The SToP-C study.

People in prison are at high risk of HCV given high injecting drug use prevalence. This study evaluated HCV incidence and associated injecting drug use characteristics in prison. The SToP-C study enrolled people incarcerated in four Australian prisons. Participants were tested for HCV at enrolment and then every 3-6 months (October-2014 to November-2019). Participants eligible for this analysis included those at-risk of HCV primary infection (anti-HCV negative) or re-infection (anti-HCV positive, HCV RNA negative) with follow-up assessment. A total of 1643 eligible participants were included in analyses (82% male; median age 33 years; 30% injected drugs in prison; 1818 person-years of follow-up). Overall HCV incidence was 6.11/100 person-years (95%CI: 5.07-7.35), with higher rate of re-infection (9.34/100 person-years; 95%CI: 7.15-12.19) than primary infection (4.60/100 person-years; 95%CI: 3.56-5.96). In total population (n = 1643), HCV risk was significantly higher among participants injecting drugs in prison [vs. no injecting; adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 10.55, 95%CI: 5.88-18.92), and those who were released and re-incarcerated during follow-up (vs. remained incarcerated; aHR: 1.60, 95%CI: 1.03-2.49). Among participants who injected recently (during past month, n = 321), HCV risk was reduced among those receiving high-dosage opioid agonist therapy (OAT), i.e. methadone ≥60 mg/day or buprenorphine ≥16 mg/day, (vs. no OAT, aHR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.02-0.80) and increased among those sharing needles/syringes without consistent use of disinfectant to clean injecting equipment (vs. no sharing, HR: 4.60, 95%CI: 1.35-15.66). This study demonstrated high HCV transmission risk in prison, particularly among people injecting drugs. High-dosage OAT was protective, but improved OAT coverage and needle/syringe programmes to reduce sharing injecting equipment are required.

Modeling as Visioning: Exploring the Impact of Criminal Justice Reform on Health of Populations with Substance Use Disorders.

In the context of historic reckoning with the role of the criminal-legal system as a structural driver of health harms, there is mounting evidence that punitive drug policies have failed to prevent problematic drug use while fueling societal harms. In this explainer article, we discuss how simulation modeling provides a methodological framework to explore the potential outcomes (beneficial and harmful) of various drug policy alternatives, from incremental to radical. We discuss potential simulation modeling opportunities while calling for a more active role of simulation modeling in visioning and operationalizing transformative change. Highlights: This article discusses opportunities for simulation modeling in projecting health and economic impacts (beneficial and harmful) of drug-related criminal justice reforms.We call on modelers to explore radical interventions to reduce drug-related harm and model grand alternative futures in addition to more probable scenarios, with a goal of opening up policy discourse to these options.

Unit costs of needle and syringe program provision: a global systematic review and cost extrapolation.

BACKGROUND: Needle and syringe programs (NSPs) are effective at preventing HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID), yet global coverage is low, partly because governments lack data on the cost and cost-effectiveness of NSP in their countries to plan and fund their responses. We conducted a global systematic review of unit costs of NSP provision to inform estimation of cost drivers and extrapolated costs to other countries. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to extract data on the cost per syringe distributed and its cost drivers. We estimated the impact of country-level and program-level variables on the cost per syringe distributed using linear mixed-effects models. These models were used to predict unit costs of NSP provision, with the best performing model used to extrapolate the cost per syringe distributed for 137 countries. The total cost for a comprehensive NSP (200 syringes per PWID/year) was also estimated for 68 countries with PWID population size estimates. RESULTS: We identified 55 estimates of the unit cost per syringe distributed from 14 countries. Unit costs were extrapolated for 137 countries, ranging from $0.08 to $20.77 (2020 USD) per syringe distributed. The total estimated spend for a high-coverage, comprehensive NSP across 68 countries with PWID size estimates is $5 035 902 000 for 10 887 500 PWID, 2.1-times higher than current spend. CONCLUSION: Our review identified cost estimates from high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income countries. Regression models may be useful for estimating NSP costs in countries without data to inform HIV/HCV prevention programming and policy.

Health-related quality of life among people who inject drugs in Australia.

PURPOSE: There is limited research on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among people who inject drugs (PWID). We aimed to evaluate factors associated with HRQoL among a cohort of PWID in Australia. METHODS: Participants were enrolled in an observational cohort study (the LiveRLife Study) between 2014 and 2018 at 15 sites in Australia. They provided fingerstick whole-blood samples for point-of-care HCV RNA testing and underwent transient elastography to assess liver disease. Participants completed the EQ-5D-3L survey at enrolment. Regression models were used to assess the impact of clinical and socioeconomic characteristics on the EQ-5D-3L scores. RESULTS: Among 751 participants (median age, 43 years; 67% male), 63% reported injection drug use in the past month, 43% had current HCV infection, and 68% had no/mild liver fibrosis (F0/F1). The mean EQ-5D-3L and EQ-VAS scores were 0.67 and 62, respectively, for the overall study population. There was no significant difference in the EQ-5D-3L scores among people with and without recent injecting drug use (mean: 0.66 vs. 0.68, median: 0.73 vs. 0.78, P = 0.405), and among people receiving and not receiving opioid agonist therapy (mean: 0.66 vs. 0.68, median: 0.73 vs. 0.76, P = 0.215). Participants who were employed were found to have the highest mean EQ-5D-3L (0.83) and EQ-VAS scores (77). The presence of current HCV infection, liver fibrosis stage, and high-risk alcohol consumption had little impact on HRQoL. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings provide important HRQoL data for economic evaluations, useful for guiding the allocation of resources for HCV elimination strategies and interventions among PWID.

Hepatitis C Virus Micro-elimination Among People With HIV in San Diego: Are We on Track?

Background: Rising incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people with HIV (PWH) in San Diego County (SDC) was reported. In 2018, the University of California San Diego (UCSD) launched a micro-elimination initiative among PWH, and in 2020 SDC launched an initiative to reduce HCV incidence by 80% across 2015-2030. We model the impact of observed treatment scale-up on HCV micro-elimination among PWH in SDC. Methods: A model of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) was calibrated to SDC. The model was additionally stratified by age, gender, and HIV status. The model was calibrated to HCV viremia prevalence among PWH in 2010, 2018, and 2021 (42.1%, 18.5%, and 8.5%, respectively), and HCV seroprevalence among PWID aged 18-39 years, MSM, and MSM with HIV in 2015. We simulate treatment among PWH, weighted by UCSD Owen Clinic (reaching 26% of HCV-infected PWH) and non-UCSD treatment, calibrated to achieve the observed HCV viremia prevalence. We simulated HCV incidence with observed and further treatment scale-up (+/- risk reductions) among PWH. Results: Observed treatment scale-up from 2018 to 2021 will reduce HCV incidence among PWH in SDC from a mean of 429 infections/year in 2015 to 159 infections/year in 2030. County-wide scale-up to the maximum treatment rate achieved at UCSD Owen Clinic (in 2021) will reduce incidence by 69%, missing the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 unless accompanied by behavioral risk reductions. Conclusions: As SDC progresses toward HCV micro-elimination among PWH, a comprehensive treatment and risk reduction approach is necessary to reach 2030 targets.

Estimating the impact of a police education program on hepatitis C virus transmission and disease burden among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico: A dynamic modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Criminalization of drug use and punitive policing are key structural drivers of hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk among people who inject drugs (PWID). A police education program (Proyecto Escudo) delivering training on occupational safety together with drug law content was implemented between 2015 and 2016 in Tijuana, Mexico, to underpin drug law reform implementation. We used data from a longitudinal cohort of PWID in Tijuana to inform epidemic modeling and assess the long-term impact of Escudo on HCV transmission and burden among PWID in Tijuana. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, compartmental model of HCV transmission and incarceration among PWID and tracked liver disease progression among current and former PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence. We used segmented regression analysis to estimate impact of Escudo on recent incarceration among an observational cohort of PWID. By simulating the observed incarceration trends, we estimated the potential impact of the implemented (2-year reduction in incarceration) and an extended (10-year reduction in incarceration) police education program over a 50-year follow-up (2016-2066) on HCV outcomes (incidence, cirrhosis, HCV-related deaths and disability adjusted life-years averted) compared with no intervention. RESULTS: Over the 2-year follow-up, Proyecto Escudo reduced HCV incidence among PWID from 21.5 per 100 person years (/100py) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 15.3-29.7/100py) in 2016 to 21.1/100py (UI = 15.0-29.1/100py) in 2018. If continued for 10 years, Escudo could reduce HCV incidence to 20.0/100py (14.0-27.8/100py) by 2026 and avert 186 (32-389) new infections, 76 (UI = 12-160) cases of cirrhosis and 32 (5-73) deaths per 10 000 PWID compared with no intervention over a 50-year time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: In Tijuana, Mexico, implementation of a police education program delivering training on occupational safety and drug law content appears to have reduced hepatitis C virus incidence among people who inject drugs.

Safer at school early alert: an observational study of wastewater and surface monitoring to detect COVID-19 in elementary schools.

Background: Schools are high-risk settings for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but necessary for children's educational and social-emotional wellbeing. Previous research suggests that wastewater monitoring can detect SARS-CoV-2 infections in controlled residential settings with high levels of accuracy. However, its effective accuracy, cost, and feasibility in non-residential community settings is unknown. Methods: The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness and accuracy of community-based passive wastewater and surface (environmental) surveillance to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection in neighborhood schools compared to weekly diagnostic (PCR) testing. We implemented an environmental surveillance system in nine elementary schools with 1700 regularly present staff and students in southern California. The system was validated from November 2020 to March 2021. Findings: In 447 data collection days across the nine sites 89 individuals tested positive for COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 374 surface samples and 133 wastewater samples. Ninety-three percent of identified cases were associated with an environmental sample (95% CI: 88%-98%); 67% were associated with a positive wastewater sample (95% CI: 57%-77%), and 40% were associated with a positive surface sample (95% CI: 29%-52%). The techniques we utilized allowed for near-complete genomic sequencing of wastewater and surface samples. Interpretation: Passive environmental surveillance can detect the presence of COVID-19 cases in non-residential community school settings with a high degree of accuracy. Funding: County of San Diego, Health and Human Services Agency, National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Centers for Disease Control.

Prison-based interventions are key to achieving HCV elimination among people who inject drugs in New South Wales, Australia: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: People who inject drugs (PWID) experience high incarceration rates which are associated with increased hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk. We assess the importance of prison-based interventions for achieving HCV elimination among PWID in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. METHODS: A model of incarceration and HCV transmission among PWID was calibrated in a Bayesian framework to epidemiological and incarceration data from NSW, incorporating elevated HCV acquisition risk among recently released PWID. We projected the contribution of differences in transmission risk during/following incarceration to HCV transmission over 2020-2029. We estimated the past and potential future impact of prison-based opioid agonist therapy (OAT; ~33% coverage) and HCV treatment (1500 treatments in 2019 with 32.9%-83.3% among PWID) on HCV transmission. We estimated the time until HCV incidence reduces by 80% (WHO elimination target) compared to 2016 levels with or without prison-based interventions. RESULTS: Over 2020-2029, incarceration will contribute 23.0% (17.9-30.5) of new HCV infections. If prison-based interventions had not been implemented since 2010, HCV incidence in 2020 would have been 29.7% (95% credibility interval: 22.4-36.1) higher. If current prison and community HCV treatment rates continue, there is an 98.8% probability that elimination targets will be achieved by 2030, with this decreasing to 10.1% without current prison-based interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Existing prison-based interventions in NSW are critical components of strategies to reduce HCV incidence among PWID. Prison-based interventions are likely to be pivotal for achieving HCV elimination targets among PWID by 2030.

Wastewater and surface monitoring to detect COVID-19 in elementary school settings: The Safer at School Early Alert project.

Background: Schools are high-risk settings for SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but necessary for children's educational and social-emotional wellbeing. Previous research suggests that wastewater monitoring can detect SARS-CoV-2 infections in controlled residential settings with high levels of accuracy. However, its effective accuracy, cost, and feasibility in non-residential community settings is unknown. Methods: The objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness and accuracy of community-based passive wastewater and surface (environmental) surveillance to detect SARS-CoV-2 infection in neighborhood schools compared to weekly diagnostic (PCR) testing. We implemented an environmental surveillance system in nine elementary schools with 1700 regularly present staff and students in southern California. The system was validated from November 2020 - March 2021. Findings: In 447 data collection days across the nine sites 89 individuals tested positive for COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 was detected in 374 surface samples and 133 wastewater samples. Ninety-three percent of identified cases were associated with an environmental sample (95% CI: 88% - 98%); 67% were associated with a positive wastewater sample (95% CI: 57% - 77%), and 40% were associated with a positive surface sample (95% CI: 29% - 52%). The techniques we utilized allowed for near-complete genomic sequencing of wastewater and surface samples. Interpretation: Passive environmental surveillance can detect the presence of COVID-19 cases in non-residential community school settings with a high degree of accuracy. Funding: County of San Diego, Health and Human Services Agency, National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Centers for Disease Control.

A stakeholder-driven framework for measuring potential change in the health risks of people who inject drugs (PWID) during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: People who inject drugs (PWID) have likely borne disproportionate health consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. PWID experienced both interruptions and changes to drug supply and delivery modes of harm reduction, treatment, and other medical services, leading to potentially increased risks for HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), and overdose. Given surveillance and research disruptions, proximal, indirect indicators of infectious diseases and overdose should be developed for timely measurement of health effects of the pandemic on PWID. METHODS: We used group concept mapping and a systems thinking approach to produce an expert stakeholder-generated, multi-level framework for monitoring changes in PWID health outcomes potentially attributable to COVID-19 in the U.S. This socio-ecological measurement framework elucidates proximal and distal contributors to infectious disease and overdose outcomes, many of which can be measured using existing data sources. RESULTS: The framework includes multi-level components including policy considerations, drug supply/distribution systems, the service delivery landscape, network factors, and individual characteristics such as mental and general health status and service utilization. These components are generally mediated by substance use and sexual behavioral factors to cause changes in incidence of HIV, HCV, sexually transmitted infections, wound/skin infections, and overdose. CONCLUSION: This measurement framework is intended to increase the quality and timeliness of research on the impacts of COVID-19 in the context of the current pandemic and future crises. Next steps include a ranking process to narrow the drivers of change in health risks to a concise set of indicators that adequately represent framework components, can be written as measurable indicators, and are quantifiable using existing data sources, as well as a publicly available web-based platform for summary data contributions.

Changes in supervised consumption site use and emergency interventions in Montréal, Canada in the first twelve months of the COVID-19 pandemic: An interrupted time series study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted supervised consumption site (SCS) operations in Montréal, Canada, potentially including changes in SCS visits, on-site emergency interventions, injection of specific drugs, and distribution of harm reduction materials. METHOD: We used administrative data from all four Montréal SCS from 1 March 2018 - 28 February 2021 to conduct an interrupted time series study with 13 March 2020 as the intervention point. We employed segmented regression using generalised least squares fit by maximum likelihood. We analysed monthly SCS visits and materials distributed as counts, and emergency interventions and drugs injected as proportions of visits. RESULTS: SCS visits (level change = -1,286; 95% CI [-1,642, -931]) and the proportion of visits requiring emergency intervention (level = -0.27% [-0.47%, -0.06%]) decreased immediately in March 2020, followed by an increasing trend in emergency interventions (slope change = 0.12% [0.10%, 0.14%]) over the ensuing 12 months. Over the same period, the proportion of injections involving opioids increased (slope = 0.05% [0.03%, 0.07%]), driven by increasing pharmaceutical opioid and novel synthetic opioid injections. Novel synthetic opioids were the drugs most often injected prior to overdose. The proportion of injections involving unregulated amphetamines increased immediately (level = 7.83% [2.93%, 12.73%]), then decreased over the next 12 months (slope = -1.86% [-2.51%, -1.21%]). There was an immediate increase in needle/syringe distribution (level = 16,552.81 [2,373, 30,732]), followed by a decreasing trend (slope = -2,398 [-4,218, -578]). There were no changes in pre-existing increasing trends in naloxone or fentanyl test strip distribution. CONCLUSION: Reduced SCS use and increasing emergency interventions at SCS are cause for serious concern. Findings suggest increased availability of novel synthetic opioids in Montréal, heightening overdose risk.

Modelling the contribution of incarceration and public health oriented drug law reform to HCV transmission and elimination among PWID in Tijuana, Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Incarceration is associated with increased risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID). Mexico's previous attempt in implementing a public health-oriented drug law reform resulted in minimal impact on incarceration among PWID. However, implementation of reforms alongside Mexico's HCV elimination program has the potential to reshape the HCV epidemic among PWID in the next decade. We use data from a cohort of PWID in Tijuana, Mexico, to inform epidemic modeling to assess the contribution of incarceration and fully implemented drug reform on HCV transmission and elimination among PWID. METHODS: We developed a dynamic, deterministic model of incarceration, HCV transmission and disease progression among PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence among 10,000 PWID. We estimated the 10-year population attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV incidence among PWID and simulated, from 2022, the potential impact of the following scenarios: 1) decriminalization (80% reduction in incarceration rates); 2) fully implemented drug law reform (decriminalization and diversion to opiate agonist therapy [OAT]); 3) fully implemented drug law reform with HCV treatment (direct-acting antivirals [DAA]). We also assessed the number DAA needed to reach the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 under these scenarios. RESULTS: Projections suggest a PAF of incarceration to HCV incidence of 5.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]:0.6-11.9%) among PWID in Tijuana between 2022-2032. Fully implemented drug reforms could reduce HCV incidence rate by 10.6% (95%UI:3.1-19.2%) across 10 years and reduce the number of DAA required to achieve Mexico's HCV incidence reduction goal by 14.3% (95%UI:5.3-17.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Among PWID in Tijuana, Mexico, incarceration remains an important contributor to HCV transmission. Full implementation of public health-oriented drug law reform could play an important role in reducing HCV incidence and improve the feasibility of reaching the HCV incidence elimination target by 2030.