Financing Comprehensive Immunization Services in Lao PDR: A Fiscal Space Analysis From a Public Policy Perspective.

INTRODUCTION: A comprehensive package of immunization services is an internal component of the Essential Health Service Package (ESP) implemented by Government of Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). Thus, the cost of delivering the immunization program and its feasibility given the fiscal space emerges as an important policy question. The present analysis was undertaken to estimate the total cost of implementing the immunization program under ESP, determinants of total cost and the program's fiscal implications from the government's perspective. METHODOLOGY: We employed a normative costing approach for costing of immunization services under ESP. Standard treatment guidelines (STGs) from both within and outside Lao PDR were considered to identify the resource use for each vaccine delivery. Subsequently, cost per dose administered and fully immunized beneficiary were computed. We assessed the fiscal space for financing immunization services in Lao PDR by adapting the decomposition method given by Tandon et al. RESULTS: In 2019, the estimated total cost of financing immunization in Lao PDR was US$12 million, which will increase in 2025 by 1.75 times, to US$21 million. The per capita budget for immunization needs to increase from about US$2 to US$7. Introduction of newer vaccines in the immunization schedule accounts for the major share (60%) of the increased cost for financing immunization. In view of current fiscal space, the government immunization expenditure (GIE) allocations will be adequate only in a scenario where no new vaccine is introduced under ESP in future years. CONCLUSION: The current fiscal space would fall short of meeting the aspirational goals of ESP-Immunization for the introduction of newer vaccines in Lao PDR. The present analysis of the fiscal space provides important evidence to support a greater role for the Global Alliance for Vaccine Initiative (GAVI) to continue to finance immunization in Lao PDR. A publicly financed immunization model in Lao PDR would require significant strategic amendments with low short-term viability.

Assessment of cognitive function among adults aged ≥ 60 years using the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale: cross-sectional study, Lao People's Democratic Republic.

BACKGROUND: Rapid population ageing remains an important concern for health, social and economics systems; thus, a broader assessment of cognitive decline among adults aged ≥ 60 years is essential. It is important to regularly collect reliable data through validated and affordable methods from people living in different areas and in different circumstances to better understand the significance of this health problem. This study aimed to identify the prevalence of cognitive impairment and the related risk factors by reassessing the scoring of the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale among older adults in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional investigation was conducted in rural and urban settings in six districts of three provinces in the country from January to July 2020. In total, 2206 individuals aged 60-98 years (1110 men and 1096 women) were interviewed in person using a pretested Lao version of the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale and the WHO STEPwise approach to noncommunicable disease (NCD) risk factor surveillance (the STEPS survey tool). The adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated using a logistic model. RESULTS: The study found that 49.3% (1088/2206) of respondents (39.7% [441/1110] of men and 59.0% [647/1096] of women) had scores associated with some level of cognitive impairment. In addition to age, the following factors were significantly associated with cognitive impairment: having no formal education (AOR = 9.5; 95% CI: 5.4 to 16.8, relative to those with a university education), living in the northern region of the country (AOR = 1.4; 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.9, relative to living in the central region), living in a rural area (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2 to 1.8), needing assistance with self-care (AOR = 1.8; 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.7) and being underweight (AOR = 1.5; 95% CI: 1.1 to 2.2). Factors associated with no cognitive impairment among older adults include engaging in moderate-intensity physical activity lasting for 10 minutes and up to 1 hour (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.5 to 0.8) and for > 1 hour (AOR = 0.6; 95% CI: 0.4 to 0.8). CONCLUSIONS: Using the Lao version of the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale, this study found that more than half of adults aged ≥ 60 years had cognitive impairment, and this impairment was associated with several risk factors. The limitations of this study may include possible overdetection due to the cutoff point for the assessment of cognitive decline used in the Revised Hasegawa Dementia Scale, given that the participants were not familiar with the instrument. However, the study results can be used to help inform health policy in the Lao People's Democratic Republic regarding the urgent need for a routine data collection system and for providing an environment that addresses and reduces the identified risk factors for cognitive decline to mitigate their impact.

Costing of Essential Health Service Packages: A Systematic Review of Methods From Developing Economies.

OBJECTIVES: Although an increasing number of countries are adopting essential health service packages (EHSPs) and undertaking their cost assessment, standardization of the costing methods and their reporting are imperative to instill confidence in the use of findings of EHSPs as evidence for decision making and resource allocation. This review was conducted to synthesize the EHSP costing reports, focusing on the key costing methods and their reporting standards. METHODS: A systematic review of English language literature (peer-reviewed as well as gray) was conducted. PubMed, Embase, Scopus, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Google Scholar, and websites of key institutions were reviewed (2000-2020). Publication characteristics, costing methods, valuation sources, quality, transparency, and reporting standards were assessed and synthesized. RESULTS: A total of 29 studies from 19 countries were included. Most studies were government reports (69%) and reported the use of "bottom-up" approach (76%), OneHealth tool (38%), had international funding (79%), and reported both normative and empirical cost estimates (41%). Six studies (21%) scored "excellent" in conduct and reporting. Stand-alone costing of EHSP had higher mean quality score (80). The projected increase in government budget to implement EHSP ranged from 17% to 117%. Limited availability of reliable data on resources, prices, and coverage of interventions were identified as major limitations for costing of EHSPs. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial differences in the costing methods and reporting standards of EHSPs made comparisons across countries difficult. Existing costing guidelines and checklists should be adapted for EHSPs with more specific methodological guidance to allow harmonization of methods and reporting.

Financial protection and equity of access to health services with the free maternal and child health initiative in Lao PDR.

Though Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has made considerable progress in improving maternal and child health (MCH), significant disparities exist nationwide, with the poor and geographically isolated ethnic groups having limited access to services. In its pursuit of universal health coverage, the government introduced a Free MCH initiative in 2011, which has recently been subsumed within the new National Health Insurance (NHI) programme. Although this was a major national health financing reform, there have been few evaluations of the extent to which it improved equitable access to MCH services. We analyse surveys that provide information on demand-side and supply-side factors influencing access and utilization of free MCH services, especially for vulnerable groups. This includes two rounds of household surveys (2010 and 2013) in southern Lao PDR involving, respectively 2766 and 2911 women who delivered within 24 months prior to each survey. These data have been analysed according to the socio-economic status, geographic location and ethnicity of women using the MCH services as well as any associated out-of-pocket expenses and structural quality of these services. Two other surveys analysed here focused on human resources for health and structural quality of health facilities. Together, these data point to persistent large inequities in access and financial protection that need to be addressed. Significant differences were found in the utilization of health services by both economic status and ethnicity. Relatively large costs for institutional births were incurred by the poor and did not decline between 2010 and 2013 whereby there was no significant impact on financial protection. The overall benefit incidence of the universal programme was not pro-poor. The inequity was accentuated by issues related to distribution and nature of human resources, supply-side readiness and thus quality of care provided across different geographical areas.

How should HIV resources be allocated? Lessons learnt from applying Optima HIV in 23 countries.

INTRODUCTION: With limited funds available, meeting global health targets requires countries to both mobilize and prioritize their health spending. Within this context, countries have recognized the importance of allocating funds for HIV as efficiently as possible to maximize impact. Over the past six years, the governments of 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America have used the Optima HIV tool to estimate the optimal allocation of HIV resources. METHODS: Each study commenced with a request by the national government for technical assistance in conducting an HIV allocative efficiency study using Optima HIV. Each study team validated the required data, calibrated the Optima HIV epidemic model to produce HIV epidemic projections, agreed on cost functions for interventions, and used the model to calculate the optimal allocation of available funds to best address national strategic plan targets. From a review and analysis of these 23 country studies, we extract common themes around the optimal allocation of HIV funding in different epidemiological contexts. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The optimal distribution of HIV resources depends on the amount of funding available and the characteristics of each country's epidemic, response and targets. Universally, the modelling results indicated that scaling up treatment coverage is an efficient use of resources. There is scope for efficiency gains by targeting the HIV response towards the populations and geographical regions where HIV incidence is highest. Across a range of countries, the model results indicate that a more efficient allocation of HIV resources could reduce cumulative new HIV infections by an average of 18% over the years to 2020 and 25% over the years to 2030, along with an approximately 25% reduction in deaths for both timelines. However, in most countries this would still not be sufficient to meet the targets of the national strategic plan, with modelling results indicating that budget increases of up to 185% would be required. CONCLUSIONS: Greater epidemiological impact would be possible through better targeting of existing resources, but additional resources would still be required to meet targets. Allocative efficiency models have proven valuable in improving the HIV planning and budgeting process.

Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious HIV targets despite expected donor withdrawal by combining improved ART procurement mechanisms with allocative and implementation efficiencies.

BACKGROUND: Despite a non-decreasing HIV epidemic, international donors are soon expected to withdraw funding from Kazakhstan. Here we analyze how allocative, implementation, and technical efficiencies could strengthen the national HIV response under assumptions of future budget levels. METHODOLOGY: We used the Optima model to project future scenarios of the HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan that varied in future antiretroviral treatment unit costs and management expenditure-two areas identified for potential cost-reductions. We determined optimal allocations across HIV programs to satisfy either national targets or ambitious targets. For each scenario, we considered two cases of future HIV financing: the 2014 national budget maintained into the future and the 2014 budget without current international investment. FINDINGS: Kazakhstan can achieve its national HIV targets with the current budget by (1) optimally re-allocating resources across programs and (2) either securing a 35% [30%-39%] reduction in antiretroviral treatment drug costs or reducing management costs by 44% [36%-58%] of 2014 levels. Alternatively, a combination of antiretroviral treatment and management cost-reductions could be sufficient. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious targets of halving new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2020 compared to 2014 levels by attaining a 67% reduction in antiretroviral treatment costs, a 19% [14%-27%] reduction in management costs, and allocating resources optimally. SIGNIFICANCE: With Kazakhstan facing impending donor withdrawal, it is important for the HIV response to achieve more with available resources. This analysis can help to guide HIV response planners in directing available funding to achieve the greatest yield from investments. The key changes recommended were considered realistic by Kazakhstan country representatives.

In the interests of time: improving HIV allocative efficiency modelling via optimal time-varying allocations.

INTRODUCTION: International investment in the response to HIV and AIDS has plateaued and its future level is uncertain. With many countries committed to ending the epidemic, it is essential to allocate available resources efficiently over different response periods to maximize impact. The objective of this study is to propose a technique to determine the optimal allocation of funds over time across a set of HIV programmes to achieve desirable health outcomes. METHODS: We developed a technique to determine the optimal time-varying allocation of funds (1) when the future annual HIV budget is pre-defined and (2) when the total budget over a period is pre-defined, but the year-on-year budget is to be optimally determined. We use this methodology with Optima, an HIV transmission model that uses non-linear relationships between programme spending and associated programmatic outcomes to quantify the expected epidemiological impact of spending. We apply these methods to data collected from Zambia to determine the optimal distribution of resources to fund the right programmes, for the right people, at the right time. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Considering realistic implementation and ethical constraints, we estimate that the optimal time-varying redistribution of the 2014 Zambian HIV budget between 2015 and 2025 will lead to a 7.6% (7.3% to 7.8%) decrease in cumulative new HIV infections compared with a baseline scenario where programme allocations remain at 2014 levels. This compares to a 5.1% (4.6% to 5.6%) reduction in new infections using an optimal allocation with constant programme spending that recommends unrealistic programmatic changes. Contrasting priorities for programme funding arise when assessing outcomes for a five-year funding period over 5-, 10- and 20-year time horizons. CONCLUSIONS: Countries increasingly face the need to do more with the resources available. The methodology presented here can aid decision-makers in planning as to when to expand or contract programmes and to which coverage levels to maximize impact.

Reorienting the HIV response in Niger toward sex work interventions: from better evidence to targeted and expanded practice.

BACKGROUND: Niger's low-burden, sex-work-driven HIV epidemic is situated in a context of high economic and demographic growth. Resource availability of HIV/AIDS has been decreasing recently. In 2007-2012, only 1% of HIV expenditure was for sex work interventions, but an estimated 37% of HIV incidence was directly linked to sex work in 2012. The Government of Niger requested assistance to determine an efficient allocation of its HIV resources and to strengthen HIV programming for sex workers. METHODS: Optima, an integrated epidemiologic and optimization tool, was applied using local HIV epidemic, demographic, programmatic, expenditure, and cost data. A mathematical optimization algorithm was used to determine the best resource allocation for minimizing HIV incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 10 years. RESULTS: Efficient allocation of the available HIV resources, to minimize incidence and DALYs, would increase expenditure for sex work interventions from 1% to 4%-5%, almost double expenditure for antiretroviral treatment and for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and reduce expenditure for HIV programs focusing on the general population. Such an investment could prevent an additional 12% of new infections despite a budget of less than half of the 2012 reference year. Most averted infections would arise from increased funding for sex work interventions. CONCLUSIONS: This allocative efficiency analysis makes the case for increased investment in sex work interventions to minimize future HIV incidence and DALYs. Optimal HIV resource allocation combined with improved program implementation could have even greater HIV impact. Technical assistance is being provided to make the money invested in sex work programs work better and help Niger to achieve a cost-effective and sustainable HIV response.

The economics of effective AIDS treatment in Thailand.

INTRODUCTION: The speed with which Thailand has scaled up public provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been unprecedented, with more than 80 000 individuals on treatment at the end of 2006 through Thailand's National Access to Antiretroviral Program for People Living with HIV/AIDS (NAPHA). This paper projects the cost effectiveness, the affordability and the future fiscal burden of NAPHA to the government of Thailand under several different policy scenarios until the year 2025. METHODS: An economic/epidemiological model of access to ART was constructed, and this composite model was calibrated to economic and epidemiological data from Thailand and other countries. The economic model adopts the conditional logit specification of demand allocation across multiple treatment modes, and the epidemiological model is a deterministic difference-equation model fitted to the cumulated data on HIV incidence in each risk group. RESULTS: The paper estimates that under 2005 prices NAPHA will save life-years at approximately US$736 per life-year saved with first-line drugs alone and for approximately US$2145 per life-year if second-line drugs are included. Enhancing NAPHA with policies to recruit patients soon after they are first eligible for ART or to enhance their adherence would raise the cost per life-year saved, but the cost would be small per additional life-year saved, and is therefore justifiable. The fiscal burden of a policy including second as well as first-line drugs would be substantial, rising to 23% of the total health budget by 2014, but the authors judge this cost to be affordable given Thailand's strong overall economic performance. The paper estimates that a 90% reduction in the future cost of second-line therapy by the exercise of Thailand's World Trade Organization authority to issue compulsory licences would save the government approximately US$3.2 billion to 2025 and reduce the cost of NAPHA per life-year saved from US$2145 to approximately US$940.