Climate determines transmission hotspots of Polycystic Echinococcosis, a life-threatening zoonotic disease, across Pan-Amazonia.

Polycystic Echinococcosis (PE), a neglected life-threatening zoonotic disease caused by the cestode Echinococcus vogeli, is endemic in the Amazon. Despite being treatable, PE reaches a case fatality rate of around 29% due to late or missed diagnosis. PE is sustained in Pan-Amazonia by a complex sylvatic cycle. The hunting of its infected intermediate hosts (especially the lowland paca Cuniculus paca) enables the disease to further transmit to humans, when their viscera are improperly handled. In this study, we compiled a unique dataset of host occurrences (~86000 records) and disease infections (~400 cases) covering the entire Pan-Amazonia and employed different modeling and statistical tools to unveil the spatial distribution of PE's key animal hosts. Subsequently, we derived a set of ecological, environmental, climatic, and hunting covariates that potentially act as transmission risk factors and used them as predictors of two independent Maximum Entropy models, one for animal infections and one for human infections. Our findings indicate that temperature stability promotes the sylvatic circulation of the disease. Additionally, we show how El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) extreme events disrupt hunting patterns throughout Pan-Amazonia, ultimately affecting the probability of spillover. In a scenario where climate extremes are projected to intensify, climate change at regional level appears to be indirectly driving the spillover of E. vogeli. These results hold substantial implications for a wide range of zoonoses acquired at the wildlife-human interface for which transmission is related to the manipulation and consumption of wild meat, underscoring the pressing need for enhanced awareness and intervention strategies.

The role of environmental temperature on movement patterns of giant anteaters.

Mammals can show conspicuous behavioral responses to thermal variation, including changes in movement patterns. We used an integrative approach to understand how environmental temperature can drive the movement behavior of a mammal with low capacity for physiological thermoregulation, the giant anteater (Myrmecophaga tridactyla). We tracked 52 giant anteaters in 7 areas throughout the Brazilian savannah. We estimated the distance moved, area used, use of forest areas, and mean environmental temperature for each monitoring day of each individual. We modeled these data with Mixed Structural Equations - considering the possible interactions between our variables and controlling for sex and body mass. Giant anteaters reduced displacement and increased forest use with decreasing environmental temperature, probably because of their low body heat production. It is possible that they reduce distance moved and area used by reducing the duration of activity. With decreasing temperature, forest habitats become warmer than open ones, besides buffer rain and chilly winds. Reducing displacement and using forests are important strategies to reduce body heat loss and the energetic costs of thermoregulation. However, decreasing movement can limit food access and, consequently, fitness. Therefore, we highlight the importance of forests as thermal shelters. With increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, we showed the need to preserve forest patches to offer suitable conditions for tropical mammals' behavioral thermoregulation. In this context, policies favoring deforestation on Brazilian territory are especially worrisome. Finally, we emphasize the need of integrative approaches to understand the complex interactions between organisms and the environment.