Effectiveness of elbasvir/grazoprevir plus ribavirin for hepatitis C virus genotype 1a infection and baseline NS5A resistance.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: In clinical trials, patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype (GT)1a infection and baseline resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) at amino acid positions 28, 30, 31, or 93 receiving elbasvir/grazoprevir for 12 weeks achieved lower rates of sustained virologic response (SVR) than those without baseline RASs. SVR rates in patients with RASs were improved when elbasvir/grazoprevir treatment duration was extended from 12 to 16 weeks and administered concomitantly with ribavirin. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective, observational analysis using electronic health record abstraction. Patients with HCV GT1a infection and RASs at positions 28, 30, 31, or 93 who were prescribed 16 weeks of elbasvir/grazoprevir and ≥ 1 prescription for ribavirin were included. SVR was defined as HCV RNA below the lower limit of quantification ≥ 70 days after end of treatment. RESULTS: The primary analysis included patients with baseline RASs at positions 30, 31, or 93 (n = 76); a secondary analysis included patients with RASs at positions 28, 30, 31, or 93 (n = 93). SVR was achieved by 77.6% (59/76) of patients in the primary analysis and 80.6% (75/93) of those in the secondary analysis. Of the 18 (19.4%) patients in the secondary cohort who failed to achieve SVR, 8 relapsed (4 with treatment-emergent NS5A substitutions) and 10 did not have viral sequencing to distinguish relapse from reinfection. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis highlights the opportunities in leveraging real-world data to further understand treatment outcomes in smaller, discrete subgroups of patients with HCV infection who cannot be thoroughly evaluated in clinical trials.

Changes in body mass index and clinical outcomes after initiation of contemporary antiretroviral regimens.

BACKGROUND: Weight gain is becoming increasingly prevalent amongst people with HIV (PWH) receiving contemporary antiretroviral treatment. We investigated BMI changes and clinical impact in a large prospective observational study. METHODS: PWH aged ≥18 years were included who started a new antiretroviral (baseline) during 2010-2019 with baseline and ≥1 follow-up BMI assessment available. Rates of clinical outcomes (cardiovascular disease [CVD], malignancies, diabetes mellitus [DM] and all-cause mortality) were analysed using Poisson regression to assess effect of time-updated BMI changes (>1 kg/m 2 decrease, ±1 kg/m 2 stable, >1 kg/m 2 increase), lagged by 1-year to reduce reverse causality. Analyses were adjusted for baseline BMI plus key confounders including antiretroviral exposure. RESULTS: 6721 PWH were included; 72.3% were male, median age 48 years (interquartile range [IQR] 40-55). At baseline, 8.4% were antiretroviral-naive, and 5.0% were underweight, 59.7% healthy weight, 27.5% overweight, and 7.8% were living with obesity. There was an 8.2% increase in proportion of overweight and 4.8% in obesity over the study period (median follow-up 4.4 years [IQR 2.6-6.7]).100 CVDs, 149 malignancies, 144 DMs, and 257 deaths were observed with incidence rates 4.4, 6.8, 6.6, 10.6 per 1000 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Compared to stable BMI, >1 kg/m 2 increase was associated with increased risk of DM (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR]: 1.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36-2.80) and >1 kg/m 2 decrease with increased risk of death (adjusted IRR: 2.33, 95% CI: 1.73-3.13). No significant associations were observed between BMI changes and CVD or malignancies. CONCLUSIONS: A BMI increase was associated with DM and a decrease associated with death.

Incidence of Intussusception in Bamako, Mali, Before and After the Introduction of Rotavirus Vaccine.

Pentavalent rotavirus vaccine has been associated with a small increase in intussusception, but pre- and post-introduction data are lacking in many low-resource settings. Using chart review and prospective surveillance data, intussusception incidence was estimated in Bamako, Mali. The mean annual intussusception incidence post-introduction was not significantly different from that of pre-introduction.

Assessing Vaccine Coverage and Timeliness in Bamako, Mali after the Introduction of Rotavirus Vaccine: A Modified Immunization Cluster Survey.

Vaccine coverage and timeliness are critical metrics for evaluating the performance of immunization programs. Following the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Bamako, Mali, we conducted two cluster surveys spaced approximately 1 year apart to evaluate these metrics among children 9 to 20 months of age. Using the child's immunization card or the medical record at the center of administration, each selected child's immunization status was determined at 9 and 12 months of age. Deviations from the WHO-recommended immunization schedule were described by the median delay and fraction of children receiving doses outside of recommended age ranges. Overall, 1,002 children were enrolled in the two surveys combined; 80.1% of children born 7 to 12 months after introduction (survey 1) received three doses of pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (ROTA3) by 9 months of age, which increased to 86.1% among children born 17 to 26 months after introduction (survey 2). Concomitantly, coverage with the third dose of diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus-containing vaccine (DPT3) by age 9 months was 86.5% (survey 1) and 88.9% (survey 2); by age 12 months, 61.3% and 72.4% of children, respectively, had received all scheduled immunizations. The median delay in ROTA3 and DPT3 administration were similar at about 3.4 weeks. Within 3 years of introduction, coverage of rotavirus vaccine among Bamako infants achieved coverage similar to DPT3 and is approaching the Global Vaccine Action Plan goal of 90% coverage by 2020. However, timeliness of coverage remains a concern.

Planning for monitoring the introduction and effectiveness of new vaccines using real-word data and geospatial visualization: An example using rotavirus vaccines with potential application to SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Infectious diseases continue to cause significant impact on human health. Vaccines are instrumental in preventing infectious diseases and mitigating pandemics and epidemics. SARS-CoV-2 is the most recent example of an urgent pandemic that requires the development of vaccines. This study combined real-world data and geospatial visualization techniques to demonstrate methods to monitor and communicate the uptake and impact of existing and new vaccines. METHODS: Observational data of existing pediatric rotavirus vaccines were used as an example. A large US national insurance claims database was accessed to build an analytic dataset for a 20-year period (1996-2017). For each week and multiple geographic scales, animated spatial and non-spatial visualization techniques were applied to demonstrate changes in seasonal rotavirus epidemic curves and population-based disease rates before, during, and after vaccine introduction in 2006. The geographic scales included national, state, county and zip code tabulation areas. An online web-based digital atlas was built to display either continuous or snapshot visualizations of disease patterns, vaccine uptake, and improved health outcomes after vaccination (http://www.mapvaccines.com). RESULTS: Over 17 million zip code-weeks of data were available for analysis. The animations show geospatial patterns of rotavirus-related medical encounter rates peaking every year from November - February prior to vaccine availability in 2006. Visualizations showed increasing vaccination coverage rates at all geographic scales over time. Declines in medical encounter rates accelerated as vaccination coverage rapidly increased after 2010. The data maps also identified geographic hotspots with low vaccination rates and persistent disease rates. CONCLUSION: This project developed novel web-based methods to communicate location and time-based vaccine uptake and the related reduction in medical visits due to viral infection. Future applications of the visualization could be used by health agencies to monitor known or novel disease patterns over time in conjunction with close assessment of current and future vaccine utilization.

CMV viral load kinetics as surrogate endpoints after allogeneic transplantation.

BACKGROUNDViral load (VL) surrogate endpoints transformed development of HIV and hepatitis C therapeutics. Surrogate endpoints for CMV-related morbidity and mortality could advance development of antiviral treatments. Although observational data support using CMV VL as a trial endpoint, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) demonstrating direct associations between virological markers and clinical endpoints are lacking.METHODSWe performed CMV DNA PCR on frozen serum samples from the only placebo-controlled RCT of ganciclovir for early treatment of CMV after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We used established criteria to assess VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease or death by weeks 8, 24, and 48 after randomization and quantified antiviral effects captured by each marker. We used ensemble-based machine learning to assess the predictive ability of VL kinetics and performed this analysis on a ganciclovir prophylaxis RCT for validation.RESULTSVL suppression with ganciclovir reduced cumulative incidence of CMV disease and death for 20 years after HCT. Mean VL, peak VL, and change in VL during the first 5 weeks of treatment fulfilled the Prentice definition for surrogacy, capturing more than 95% of ganciclovir's effect, and yielded highly sensitive and specific predictions by week 48. In the prophylaxis trial, the viral shedding rate satisfied the Prentice definition for CMV disease by week 24.CONCLUSIONSOur results support using CMV VL kinetics as surrogates for CMV disease, provide a framework for developing CMV preventative and therapeutic agents, and support reductions in VL as the mechanism through which antivirals reduce CMV disease.FUNDINGMerck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.

Evaluation of Neural Tube Defects (NTDs) After Exposure to Raltegravir During Pregnancy.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of neural tube defects (NTDs) after exposure to raltegravir during pregnancy. METHODS: Exposures to raltegravir during pregnancy reported cumulatively through May 31, 2018, to the company safety database were reviewed to identify cases of NTDs. This database includes all reports of pregnancy from Merck-sponsored clinical trials, spontaneous postmarketing reports, and non-interventional data sources, including the Antiretroviral Pregnancy Registry (APR). Reports were classified as prospective (before knowledge of pregnancy outcome) or retrospective (after knowledge of pregnancy outcome). We also reviewed data from 2 ongoing pregnancy cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 2426 pregnancies with reported outcomes were identified among women exposed to raltegravir: 1238 from the Merck database and 1188 from United Kingdom/Ireland and French pregnancy cohorts. Among all 2426 reports, 1991 were prospective. No cases of NTDs were identified among the prospective pregnancy reports, of which 767 were first trimester, including 456 in the periconception period (at or within 28 days after conception). Among the 435 retrospective reports, 3 NTD cases per APR criteria were identified (anencephaly, and 2 meningomyelocele), of which only one (meningomyelocele) was among exposures in the periconception period. Given the inherent limitations and bias of retrospective reports, it is not appropriate to calculate an incidence rate. CONCLUSIONS: Prospectively collected pregnancy outcome data do not suggest an association between raltegravir exposure in the periconception period and NTDs. The current data support the updated DHHS and EACS treatment guidelines for use of raltegravir as a preferred integrase inhibitor in all stages of pregnancy.

Prediction of Recurrent Clostridium Difficile Infection Using Comprehensive Electronic Medical Records in an Integrated Healthcare Delivery System.

BACKGROUND Predicting recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (rCDI) remains difficult. METHODS: We employed a retrospective cohort design. Granular electronic medical record (EMR) data had been collected from patients hospitalized at 21 Kaiser Permanente Northern California hospitals. The derivation dataset (2007-2013) included data from 9,386 patients who experienced incident CDI (iCDI) and 1,311 who experienced their first CDI recurrences (rCDI). The validation dataset (2014) included data from 1,865 patients who experienced incident CDI and 144 who experienced rCDI. Using multiple techniques, including machine learning, we evaluated more than 150 potential predictors. Our final analyses evaluated 3 models with varying degrees of complexity and 1 previously published model. RESULTS Despite having a large multicenter cohort and access to granular EMR data (eg, vital signs, and laboratory test results), none of the models discriminated well (c statistics, 0.591-0.605), had good calibration, or had good explanatory power. CONCLUSIONS Our ability to predict rCDI remains limited. Given currently available EMR technology, improvements in prediction will require incorporating new variables because currently available data elements lack adequate explanatory power. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2017;38:1196-1203.

Heterogeneity of Rotavirus Vaccine Efficacy Among Infants in Developing Countries.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhea worldwide in young children. Although rotavirus vaccine efficacy is high in developed countries, efficacy is lower in developing countries. Here, we investigated heterogeneity of rotavirus vaccine efficacy by infant characteristics in developing countries. METHODS: An exploratory, post hoc analysis was conducted using randomized controlled trial data of the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) conducted in Africa and Asia (NCT00362648). Infants received either 3 doses of vaccine/placebo and were followed for up to 2 years. Within subgroups, vaccine efficacies and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) against rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) were estimated using Poisson regression. We assessed heterogeneity of efficacy by age at first dose, gender, breastfeeding status and nutrition status. RESULTS: African children receiving the first dose at <8 weeks had lower efficacy (23.7%; 95% CI: -8.2%-46.3%) than those vaccinated at ≥8 weeks (59.1%; 95% CI: 34.0%-74.6%). Marginally statistically significant differences were observed by age at first dose, gender and underweight status in Ghana and gender in Asian countries. CONCLUSIONS: Heterogeneity of efficacy was observed for age at first dose in African countries. This was an exploratory analysis; additional studies are needed to validate these results.

Antibodies to Toxin B Are Protective Against Clostridium difficile Infection Recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Although newer studies have evaluated risk factors for recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), the vast majority did not measure important biomarkers such as endogenous anti-toxin A and anti-toxin B antibody levels. METHODS: Data from the placebo group of a phase 2 trial testing monoclonal antibodies to C. difficile toxins A and B for preventing CDI recurrence (rCDI) were analyzed to assess risk factors associated with rCDI. Patients with symptomatic CDI taking metronidazole or vancomycin were enrolled. The primary outcome was rCDI within 84 days of treatment start. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to examine associations between potential risk factors and rCDI. At baseline, demographic and clinical characteristics were recorded; endogenous antibody levels were assessed using 2 enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays. RESULTS: A predictor of recurrence was age ≥65 years, and an antibody-mediated immune response to toxin B appears to be protective against rCDI. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the importance of clinical as well as immunological risk factors in rCDI and provide more robust evidence for the protective effects of antibody to toxin B in the prevention of rCDI. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT00350298.

Epidemiological and economic burden of Clostridium difficile in the United States: estimates from a modeling approach.

BACKGROUND: Despite a large increase in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) severity, morbidity and mortality in the US since the early 2000s, CDI burden estimates have had limited generalizability and comparability due to widely varying clinical settings, populations, or study designs. METHODS: A decision-analytic model incorporating key input parameters important in CDI epidemiology was developed to estimate the annual number of initial and recurrent CDI cases, attributable and all-cause deaths, economic burden in the general population, and specific number of high-risk patients in different healthcare settings and the community in the US. Economic burden was calculated adopting a societal perspective using a bottom-up approach that identified healthcare resources consumed in the management of CDI. RESULTS: Annually, a total of 606,058 (439,237 initial and 166,821 recurrent) episodes of CDI were predicted in 2014: 34.3 % arose from community exposure. Over 44,500 CDI-attributable deaths in 2014 were estimated to occur. High-risk susceptible individuals representing 5 % of the total hospital population accounted for 23 % of hospitalized CDI patients. The economic cost of CDI was $5.4 billion ($4.7 billion (86.7 %) in healthcare settings; $725 million (13.3 %) in the community), mostly due to hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: A modeling framework provides more comprehensive and detailed national-level estimates of CDI cases, recurrences, deaths and cost in different patient groups than currently available from separate individual studies. As new treatments for CDI are developed, this model can provide reliable estimates to better focus healthcare resources to those specific age-groups, risk-groups, and care settings in the US where they are most needed. (Trial Identifier ClinicaTrials.gov: NCT01241552).

Cytomegalovirus viral load and mortality after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation in the era of pre-emptive therapy: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Although cytomegalovirus viral load is commonly used to guide pre-emptive therapy in the post-transplantation setting, few data are available correlating viraemia with clinical endpoints. We therefore investigated the association between cytomegalovirus viral load and mortality in the first year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we included patients from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, WA, USA, who received an allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation between Jan 1, 2007, and Feb 28, 2013, were cytomegalovirus seropositive or had a seropositive donor, and underwent weekly plasma cytomegalovirus monitoring by PCR through to day 100 post-transplantation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association of cytomegalovirus viral load at different thresholds with overall mortality by 1 year post-transplantation, adjusting for the use of pre-emptive therapy and other factors such as neutropenia, and graft-versus-host disease. FINDINGS: Of the 1037 patients initially selected for inclusion in this cohort, 87 (8%) patients were excluded because of missing cytomegalovirus testing and 24 (2%) were excluded because of their participation in cytomegalovirus prophylaxis trials. In the remaining 926 patients included in this study, the cumulative overall mortality was 30·0% (95% CI 26·9-33·0) 1 year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. 95 patients developed cytomegalovirus disease; death was directly attributable to cytomegalovirus disease in three (1%) of 263 patients who died in the first year after transplantation. A cytomegalovirus viral load of 250 IU/mL or greater was associated with increased risk of early (day 0-60 post-transplantation) death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 19·8, 95% CI 9·6-41·1). The risk was attenuated after day 60 (adjusted HR 1·8, 95% CI 1·3-2·3). Similar associations were noted for higher cytomegalovirus viral load thresholds. INTERPRETATION: Cytomegalovirus viraemia is associated with an increased risk of overall mortality in the first year after haemopoietic stem cell transplantation, independent of the use of pre-emptive therapy, and with evidence of a positive dose-response relationship. These data indicate the suitability of viral load as a surrogate clinical endpoint for clinical trials for cytomegalovirus vaccines, biologics, and drugs. FUNDING: Merck and Co, National Institutes of Health.

Accuracy of administrative claims data to identify dose specific rotavirus vaccination information: Implications for studies of vaccine safety.

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of vaccine administration information recorded in administrative claims databases is uncertain. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the HealthCore Integrated Research Database(SM) among infants who received at least 1 RotaTeq (RV5) dose during the first year of life between February 1, 2006 and November 30, 2012 and were enrolled in the health plan at birth. We reviewed medical records for a sample of infants to validate vaccine administration information. RESULTS: We identified 169,560 infants who received at least 1 RV5 dose. Medical records were obtained for 85 infants, of which 74 (PPV1 87.1%; 95% CI 78.0-93.4%) had a corresponding first RV5 vaccination in the medical record with the same or similar administration date. CONCLUSIONS: Administrative claims contained inaccuracies in dose number or administration date for 13% of RV5 first doses identified.

Evidence of herd immunity and sustained impact of rotavirus vaccination on the reduction of rotavirus-related medical encounters among infants from 2006 through 2011 in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus (RV) is the leading cause of severe acute gastroenteritis among young children. Since the US licensure of the pentavalent RV vaccine (RV5) and the monovalent RV vaccine (RV1), a decline of RV activity has been observed. OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of RV-related health care utilization among infants receiving RV vaccines (RVVs). METHODS: A large national health insurance claims database was used to identify infants born from January 2002 through July 2011. From this cohort, infants were divided into three groups: (1) those who received a RVV, (2) those receiving a diphtheria, tetanus, and acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccine before the introduction of RVV (February 2006), and (3) those receiving DTaP without a concurrent RVV during the period of RVV availability. Study outcomes were rotavirus gastroenteritis (RGE) and acute gastroenteritis. Longitudinal, seasonal RGE incidence patterns among the RVV cohort (n = 140,952) were compared with the referent DTaP-vaccine cohort (n = 131,529). RESULTS: More than 91% of administered RVV were RV5. Mean peak incidence of RV medical encounters in RV-vaccinated infants was 95-96% lower than among DTaP-vaccinated infants who did not receive RVV. RGE incidence among the non-RV-vaccinated DTaP recipients in the RVV-available period (110 per 100,000 infants) was lower than among DTaP recipients in the pre-RVV period (151 per 100,000 infants). The highest RGE incidence in the 2007-2011 period was among older non-RV-vaccinated infants. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of a national medical claims database indicates a sustained and substantial decrease in the seasonal RV medical claims pattern after the introduction of RVV. This analysis also reveals evidence of herd immunity, although unvaccinated infants continue to be at risk and contribute to smaller seasonal peaks in RV disease activity.

Assessing bias in administrative database studies of RotaTeq vaccine completion due to exclusion of subjects with incomplete follow-up.

BACKGROUND: RotaTeq® pentavalent human rotavirus vaccine (RV5) is effective against rotavirus illness and rotavirus-related hospitalizations and death. Effectiveness depends on adherence to the dosing schedule, which includes 3 doses at ages 2, 4 and 6 months. Two studies have used automated claims databases to estimate the proportion of vaccinated infants who complete the dosing schedule, but excluded from analysis vaccinated infants who were not enrolled in the database for a sufficient period to observe all 3 doses. Restricting study populations based on duration of follow-up can introduce bias if a large number of subjects are excluded due to insufficient follow-up, and if their outcomes differ from subjects who are included. To address the possibility that exclusions may have been extensive and led to biased estimates of completion rates, we conducted a claims database analysis in the HealthCore Integrated Research Database(SM) to evaluate the proportion of rotavirus vaccinated infants who completed the 3 dose series of RV5. We evaluated potential error introduced by restricting analyses to infants with complete follow-up by estimating completion rates among infants with complete follow-up, and using Kaplan-Meier analyses to estimate completion rates including infants with incomplete follow-up. RESULTS: The inclusion criterion requiring continuous enrollment for the first year of life resulted in only 108,533 (40%) of 233,143 vaccinated infants from 2006-2012 being included in the analysis. After relaxing inclusion criteria, we were able to include 86% of vaccinated infants. The estimated completion rate among infants with continuous enrollment from birth through the first year of life was 78.1% (95% confidence limits [CLs] 77.8%, 78.3%), and among the expanded population the estimated completion rate was 77.4% (95% CLs 77.2%, 77.6%). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that most infants were not followed in the database through the first year of life, but the impact of excluding infants with incomplete follow-up was negligible when assessing RV5 completion rates for this commercially insured population. Nonetheless, to increase the size of study populations and reduce the potential for bias, it is preferable to include subjects with incomplete follow-up in automated database analyses, and adopt more robust approaches to defining and analyzing study populations that account for missing data.

Hospital-based surveillance and analysis of genotype variation in Nicaragua after the introduction of the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine.

BACKGROUND: A live, attenuated, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (RV5) was introduced in Nicaragua in 2006 through a 3-year partnership between Merck & Co, Inc., and the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health. Nicaragua was the first developing nation to include rotavirus vaccine in its national childhood vaccine program. To monitor the possibility of changing circulating rotavirus strains after the introduction of RV5, we determined the genotypes responsible for rotavirus gastroenteritis-related hospitalization during the first 3 postvaccine years. METHODS: Stool samples were collected from children with acute gastroenteritis who presented to any of 6 participating hospitals within 7-14 days of symptom onset. Samples positive for rotavirus antigen were analyzed for P and G genotypes using a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction method. RESULTS: Overall, the predominant strains were G2P[4] (41.5%), G1P[8] (40.6%), G4P[8] (5.1%) and G3P[8] (4.7%). Strain predominance varied by season. During the 2007 season, G4P[8] (53.2%) and G2P[4] (40.5%) predominated. In the 2008 season, G2P[4] (77.9%) and G1P[8] (12.6%) were predominant, while in the 2009 season, G1P[8] (79.3%) and G3P[8] (7.8%) were predominant. CONCLUSION: No new or unexpected strains were predominant in the years immediately following the introduction of RV5 into Nicaragua. RV5 does not appear to have substantially altered the historical pattern of seasonal fluctuation in rotavirus genotypes.

Medical records-based postmarketing safety evaluation of rare events with uncertain status.

We develop a simple statistic for comparing rates of rare adverse events between treatment groups in postmarketing safety studies where the events have uncertain status. In this setting, the statistic is asymptotically equivalent to the logrank statistic, but the limiting distribution has Poisson and binomial components instead of being Gaussian. We develop two new procedures for computing critical values: a Gaussian approximation and a parametric bootstrap. Both numerical and asymptotic properties of the procedures are studied. The test procedures are demonstrated on a postmarketing safety study of the RotaTeq vaccine. This vaccine was developed to reduce the incidence of severe diarrhea in infants.

Effectiveness of vaccination with the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in Nicaragua as determined using the screening method.

The screening method is a surveillance tool to evaluate vaccine effectiveness (VE) using coverage data on cases and available administrative estimates of vaccine coverage in the population. The aim of this analysis was to evaluate the utility and limitations of using the screening methodology to estimate VE, particularly in a developing world country with a high coverage rate, and to compare it with the VE estimates from 2 case-control studies. Using data from 2008, the screening method employed in this study estimated that VE for 3 doses of RV5 among children<12 mo of age to prevent wild-type severe disease, resulting in hospitalization or emergency department visits, was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 78-100%). Additional sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the point estimates of VE against severe disease ranged from 72% (95% CI: 62-83%) to 92% (95% CI: 78-100%); this range of VE estimates, although wide, is relatively consistent with results reported from 2 case-control studies in Nicaragua for the same time period. When the infrastructure is in place to collect reasonably robust case data, the use of the screening method to estimate VE is possible in the developing world setting. Cases of severe wild-type rotavirus gastroenteritis were obtained through an observational, hospital-based, prospective, surveillance program to assess rotavirus acute gastroenteritis. The proportion of cases vaccinated was estimated using the child's vaccination card or health record. The proportion of the population vaccinated was estimated using administrative population-based vaccination coverage estimates provided by the Nicaraguan Ministry of Health.

Medical records-based postmarketing safety evaluation of rare events with uncertain status.

We develop a simple statistic for comparing rates of rare adverse events between treatment groups in postmarketing safety studies where the events have uncertain status. In this setting, the statistic is asymptotically equivalent to the logrank statistic, but the limiting distribution has Poisson and binomial components instead of being Gaussian. We develop two new procedures for computing critical values, a Gaussian approximation and a parametric bootstrap. Both numerical and asymptotic properties of the procedures are studied. The test procedures are demonstrated on a postmarketing safety study of the RotaTeq vaccine. This vaccine was developed to reduce the incidence of severe diarrhea in infants.