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PurposeEnhanced understanding of the dynamic changes in the dysregulated inflammatory response in COVID-19 may help improve patient selection and timing for immunomodulatory therapies. MethodsWe enrolled 323 COVID-19 inpatients on different levels of baseline respiratory support: i) Low Flow Oxygen (37%), ii) Non-Invasive Ventilation or High Flow Oxygen (NIV_HFO, 29%), iii) Invasive Mechanical Ventilation (IMV, 27%), and iv) Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO, 7%). We collected plasma samples upon enrollment and days 5 and 10 to measure host-response biomarkers. We classified subjects into inflammatory subphenotypes using two validated predictive models. We examined clinical, biomarker and subphenotype trajectories and outcomes during hospitalization. ResultsIL-6, procalcitonin, and Angiopoietin-2 were persistently elevated in patients at higher levels of respiratory support, whereas sRAGE displayed the inverse pattern. Patients on NIV_HFO at baseline had the most dynamic clinical trajectory, with 26% eventually requiring intubation and exhibiting worse 60-day mortality than IMV patients at baseline (67% vs. 35%, p<0.0001). sRAGE levels predicted NIV failure and worse 60-day mortality for NIV_HFO patients, whereas IL-6 levels were predictive in IMV or ECMO patients. Hyper-inflammatory subjects at baseline (<10% by both models) had worse 60-day survival (p<0.0001) and 50% of them remained classified as hyper-inflammatory on follow-up sampling at 5 days post-enrollment. Receipt of combined immunomodulatory therapies (steroids and anti-IL6 agents) was associated with markedly increased IL-6 and lower Angiopoietin-2 levels (p<0.05). ConclusionsLongitudinal study of systemic host responses in COVID-19 revealed substantial and predictive inter-individual variability, influenced by baseline levels of respiratory support and concurrent immunomodulatory therapies.
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INTRODUCTIONChest imaging is necessary for diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia, but current risk stratification tools do not consider radiographic severity. We quantified radiographic heterogeneity among inpatients with COVID-19 with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score on Chest X-rays (CXRs). METHODSWe performed independent RALE scoring by [≥]2 reviewers on baseline CXRs from 425 inpatients with COVID-19 (discovery dataset), we recorded clinical variables and outcomes, and measured plasma host-response biomarkers and SARS-CoV-2 RNA load from subjects with available biospecimens. RESULTSWe found excellent inter-rater agreement for RALE scores (intraclass correlation co-efficient=0.93). The required level of respiratory support at the time of baseline CXRs (supplemental oxygen or non-invasive ventilation [n=178]; invasive-mechanical ventilation [n=234], extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [n=13]) was significantly associated with RALE scores (median [interquartile range]: 20.0[14.1-26.7], 26.0[20.5-34.0] and 44.5[34.5-48.0], respectively, p<0.0001). Among invasively-ventilated patients, RALE scores were significantly associated with worse respiratory mechanics (plateau and driving pressure) and gas exchange metrics (PaO2/FiO2 and ventilatory ratio), as well as higher plasma levels of IL-6, sRAGE and TNFR1 levels (p<0.05). RALE scores were independently associated with 90-day survival in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (adjusted hazard ratio 1.04[1.02-1.07], p=0.002). We validated significant associations of RALE scores with baseline severity and mortality in an independent dataset of 415 COVID-19 inpatients. CONCLUSIONReproducible assessment of radiographic severity revealed significant associations with clinical and physiologic severity, host-response biomarkers and clinical outcome in COVID-19 pneumonia. Incorporation of radiographic severity assessments may provide prognostic and treatment allocation guidance in patients hospitalized with COVID-19.
