Relationships between ecosystem properties and sea-level rise vulnerability of tidal wetlands of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.

Tidal wetlands in the Mid-Atlantic, USA, are experiencing high rates of relative sea level rise, and it is unclear whether they will be resilient in the face of future flooding increases. In a previous study, we found 80% of our study areas in tidal freshwater and salt marshes in the Delaware Estuary and Barnegat Bay had elevation change rates lower than the 19-year increase in mean sea level. Here, we examine relationships between marsh elevation dynamics and abiotic and biotic parameters in order to assess their utility as indicators of vulnerability to relative sea level rise. We further apply a range of marsh vulnerability indicators including elevation change rates to evaluate their ability to corroborate marsh habitat change over the last 30 years. Of the field measurements, soil bulk density and belowground plant biomass were among the strongest predictors of elevation change and accretion dynamics across all marsh types and settings. Both tidal freshwater and salt marshes tended to have higher rates of elevation increase and surface accretion in areas where soil bulk density and live belowground biomass were higher. Nine of the ten marshes experienced a net loss of area from the 1970s to 2015 ranging from 0.05 to 14%. Although tidal freshwater marshes were low in elevation and experienced variable elevation change rates, marsh area loss was low. Conversely, salt marshes closest to the coast and perched high in the tidal frame with a higher degree of human modification tended to experience the greatest marsh loss, which incorporated anthropogenic impacts and edge erosion. Thus, our regional assessment points to the need for a comprehensive understanding of factors that influence marsh resilience including human modifications and geomorphic settings.

Tidal Flushing Rather Than Non-Point Source Nitrogen Pollution Drives Nutrient Dynamics in A Putatively Eutrophic Estuary.

The effects of nonpoint source nutrients on estuaries can be difficult to pinpoint, with researchers often using indicator species, monitoring, and models to detect influence and change. Here, we made stable isotope measurements of nitrogen and carbon in sediment, water column particulates, primary producers, and consumers at 35 stations in the reportedly eutrophic Barnegat Bay (New Jersey) to assess N sources and processing pathways. Combined with water quality and hydrological data, our C and N isoscapes revealed four distinct geographic zones with diverging isotopic baselines, indicating variable nutrient sources and processing pathways. Overall, the carbon stable isotopes δ13C) reflected the terrestrial-marine gradient with the most depleted values in the urban and poorly flushed north of the estuary to the most enriched values in the salt marsh-dominated south. In contrast, the nitrogen stable isotope values δ15N) were most enriched near the oceanic inlets and were consistent with offshore δ15N values in particulate organic matter. Several biogeochemical processes likely alter δ15N, but the relatively lower δ15N values associated with the most urbanized area indicate that anthropogenic runoff is not a dominant N source to this area. Our findings stand in contrast to previous studies of similar estuaries, as δ15N signatures of biota in this system are inversely correlated to population density and nutrient concentrations. Further, our analyses of archival plant (Spartina sp., Phragmites australis) and shell (Geukensia demissa, Ilyanassa obsoleta) samples collected between 1880 and 2020 indicated that δ15N values have decreased over time, particularly in the consumers. Overall, we find that water quality issues appear to be most acute in the poorly flushed parts of Barnegat Bay and emphasize the important role that oceanic exchange plays in water quality and associated estuarine food webs in the lagoon.