Impacts of COVID-19-related service disruptions on TB incidence and deaths in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru: Implications for national TB responses.

Initial global-level estimates reported in June 2020 by the World Health Organization suggested that levels of disruption to TB service delivery could be as high as 25%-50% and result in an additional 6·3 million cases of tuberculosis (TB) and an additional 1·4 million TB-related deaths attributable to COVID-19 between 2020 and 2025. Quarterly epidemiological estimates and programmatic TB data capturing disruption levels to each TB service were collected by National TB Programmes in Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Malawi, Mozambique, and Peru. Data from 2019, for a pre-COVID-19 baseline, and throughout 2020, together with the NTP's COVID-19 response plans, were used within Optima TB models to project TB incidence and deaths over five years because of COVID-19-related disruptions, and the extent to which those impacts may be mitigated through proposed catch-up strategies in each country. Countries reported disruptions of up to 64% to demand-driven TB diagnosis. However, TB service availability disruptions were shorter and less severe, with TB treatment experiencing levels of disruption of up to 21%. We predicted that under the worse-case scenario cumulative new latent TB infections, new active TB infections, and TB-related deaths could increase by up to 23%, 11%, and 20%, respectively, by 2024. However, three of the five countries were on track to mitigate these increases to 3% or less by maintaining TB services in 2021 and 2022 and by implementing proposed catch-up strategies. Indonesia was already experiencing the worse-case scenario, which could lead to 270,000 additional active TB infections and 36,000 additional TB-related deaths by the end of 2024. The COVID-19 pandemic is projected to negatively affect progress towards 2035 End TB targets, especially in countries already off-track. Findings highlight both successful TB service delivery adaptions in 2020 and the need to proactively maintain TB service availability despite potential future waves of more transmissible COVID-19 variants.

Delivery of long-term-injectable agents for TB by lay carers: pragmatic randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: People with recurrent or drug-resistant TB require long courses of intramuscular injections. We evaluate a novel system in which patient-nominated lay carers were trained to deliver intramuscular injections to patients in their own homes. METHODS: A pragmatic, individually randomised non-inferiority trial was conducted at two hospitals in Malawi. Adults starting TB retreatment were recruited. Patients randomised to the intervention received home-based care from patient-nominated lay people trained to deliver intramuscular streptomycin. Patients receiving standard care were admitted to hospital for 2 months of streptomycin. The primary outcome was successful treatment (alive and on treatment) at the end of the intervention. RESULTS: Of 456 patients screened, 204 participants were randomised. The trial was terminated early due to futility. At the end of the intervention, 97/101 (96.0%) in the hospital arm were still alive and on treatment compared with 96/103 (93.2%) in the home-based arm (risk difference -0.03 (95% CI -0.09 to 0.03); p value 0.538). There were no differences in the proportion completing 8 months of anti-TB treatment; or the proportion experiencing 2-month sputum culture conversion. The mean cost of hospital-based management was US$1546.3 per person, compared to US$729.2 for home-based management. Home-based care reduced risk of catastrophic household costs by 84%. CONCLUSIONS: Although this trial failed to meet target recruitment, the available data demonstrate that training patient-nominated lay people has potential to provide a feasible solution to the operational challenges associated with delivering long-term-injectable drugs to people with recurrent or drug-resistant TB in resource-limited settings, and substantially reduce costs. Further data under operational conditions are required. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN05815615.

Diagnostic value of the urine lipoarabinomannan assay in HIV-positive, ambulatory patients with CD4 below 200 cells/µl in 2 low-resource settings: A prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend the use of the lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan assay (LAM) in HIV-positive, ambulatory patients with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis (TB) only if they are seriously ill or have CD4 count ≤ 100 cells/µl. We assessed the diagnostic yield of including LAM in TB diagnostic algorithms in HIV-positive, ambulatory patients with CD4 < 200 cells/µl, as well as the risk of mortality in LAM-positive patients who were not diagnosed using other diagnostic tools and not treated for TB. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a prospective observational study including HIV-positive adult patients with signs and symptoms of TB and CD4 < 200 cells/µl attending 6 health facilities in Malawi and Mozambique. Patients were included consecutively from 18 September 2015 to 27 October 2016 in Malawi and from 3 December 2014 to 22 August 2016 in Mozambique. All patients had a clinical exam and LAM, chest X-ray, sputum microscopy, and Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) requested. Culture in sputum was done for a subset of patients. The diagnostic yield was defined as the proportion of patients with a positive assay result among those with laboratory-confirmed TB. For the 456 patients included in the study, the median age was 36 years (IQR 31-43) and the median CD4 count was 50 cells/µl (IQR 21-108). Forty-five percent (205/456) of the patients had laboratory-confirmed TB. The diagnostic yields of LAM, microscopy, and Xpert were 82.4% (169/205), 33.7% (69/205), and 40.0% (84/205), respectively. In total, 50.2% (103/205) of the patients with laboratory-confirmed TB were diagnosed only through LAM. Overall, the use of LAM in diagnostic algorithms increased the yield of algorithms with microscopy and with Xpert by 38.0% (78/205) and 34.6% (71/205), respectively, and, specifically among patients with CD4 100-199 cells/µl, by 27.5% (14/51) and 29.4% (15/51), respectively. LAM-positive patients not diagnosed through other tools and not treated for TB had a significantly higher risk of mortality than LAM-positive patients who received treatment (adjusted risk ratio 2.57, 95% CI 1.27-5.19, p = 0.009). Although the TB diagnostic conditions in the study sites were similar to those in other resource-limited settings, the added value of LAM may depend on the availability of microscopy or Xpert results. CONCLUSIONS: LAM has diagnostic value for identifying TB in HIV-positive patients with signs and symptoms of TB and advanced immunodeficiency, including those with a CD4 count of 100-199 cells/µl. In this study, the use of LAM enabled the diagnosis of TB in half of the patients with confirmed TB disease; without LAM, these patients would have been missed. The rapid identification and treatment of TB enabled by LAM may decrease overall mortality risk for these patients.