Risk stratification integrating genetic data for factor VIII inhibitor development in patients with severe hemophilia A.

Replacement therapy in severe hemophilia A leads to factor VIII (FVIII) inhibitors in 30% of patients. Factor VIII gene (F8) mutation type, a family history of inhibitors, ethnicity and intensity of treatment are established risk factors, and were included in two published prediction tools based on regression models. Recently investigated immune regulatory genes could also play a part in immunogenicity. Our objective is to identify bio-clinical and genetic markers for FVIII inhibitor development, taking into account potential genetic high order interactions. The study population consisted of 593 and 79 patients with hemophilia A from centers in Bonn and Frankfurt respectively. Data was collected in the European ABIRISK tranSMART database. A subset of 125 severely affected patients from Bonn with reliable information on first treatment was selected as eligible for risk stratification using a hybrid tree-based regression model (GPLTR). In the eligible subset, 58 (46%) patients developed FVIII inhibitors. Among them, 49 (84%) were "high risk" F8 mutation type. 19 (33%) had a family history of inhibitors. The GPLTR model, taking into account F8 mutation risk, family history of inhibitors and product type, distinguishes two groups of patients: a high-risk group for immunogenicity, including patients with positive HLA-DRB1*15 and genotype G/A and A/A for IL-10 rs1800896, and a low-risk group of patients with negative HLA-DRB1*15 / HLA-DQB1*02 and T/T or G/T for CD86 rs2681401. We show associations between genetic factors and the occurrence of FVIII inhibitor development in severe hemophilia A patients taking into account for high-order interactions using a generalized partially linear tree-based approach.

Incidence and risk factors for adalimumab and infliximab anti-drug antibodies in rheumatoid arthritis: A European retrospective multicohort analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the incidence of anti-drug antibody (ADA) occurrences and ADA-related risk factors under adalimumab and infliximab treatment in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. METHODS: The study combined retrospective cohorts from the ABIRISK project totaling 366 RA patients treated with adalimumab (n = 240) or infliximab (n = 126), 92.4% of them anti-TNF naive (n = 328/355) and 96.6% of them co-treated with methotrexate (n = 341/353) with up to 18 months follow-up. ADA positivity was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The cumulative incidence of ADA was estimated, and potential bio-clinical factors were investigated using a Cox regression model on interval-censored data. RESULTS: ADAs were detected within 18 months in 19.2% (n = 46) of the adalimumab-treated patients and 29.4% (n = 37) of the infliximab-treated patients. The cumulative incidence of ADA increased over time. In the adalimumab and infliximab groups, respectively, the incidence was 15.4% (5.2-20.2) and 0% (0-5.9) at 3 months, 17.6% (11.4-26.4) and 0% (0-25.9) at 6 months, 17.7% (12.6-37.5) and 34.1% (11.4-46.3) at 12 months, 50.0% (25.9-87.5) and 37.5% (25.9-77.4) at 15 months and 50.0% (25.9-87.5) and 66.7% (37.7-100) at 18 months. Factors associated with a higher risk of ADA development were: longer disease duration (1-3 vs. < 1 year; adalimumab: HR 3.0, 95% CI 1.0-8.7; infliximab: HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.1-6.8), moderate disease activity (DAS28 3.2-5.1 vs. < 3.2; adalimumab: HR 6.6, 95% CI 1.3-33.7) and lifetime smoking (infliximab: HR 2.7, 95% CI 1.2-6.3). CONCLUSIONS: The current study focusing on patients co-treated with methotrexate for more than 95% of them found a late occurrence of ADAs not previously observed, whereby the risk continued to increase over 18 months. Disease duration, DAS28 and lifetime smoking are clinical predictors of ADA development.

Monocyte NOTCH2 expression predicts IFN-ß immunogenicity in multiple sclerosis patients.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease characterized by CNS inflammation leading to demyelination and axonal damage. IFN-ß is an established treatment for MS; however, up to 30% of IFN-ß-treated MS patients develop neutralizing antidrug antibodies (nADA), leading to reduced drug bioactivity and efficacy. Mechanisms driving antidrug immunogenicity remain uncertain, and reliable biomarkers to predict immunogenicity development are lacking. Using high-throughput flow cytometry, NOTCH2 expression on CD14+ monocytes and increased frequency of proinflammatory monocyte subsets were identified as baseline predictors of nADA development in MS patients treated with IFN-ß. The association of this monocyte profile with nADA development was validated in 2 independent cross-sectional MS patient cohorts and a prospective cohort followed before and after IFN-ß administration. Reduced monocyte NOTCH2 expression in nADA+ MS patients was associated with NOTCH2 activation measured by increased expression of Notch-responsive genes, polarization of monocytes toward a nonclassical phenotype, and increased proinflammatory IL-6 production. NOTCH2 activation was T cell dependent and was only triggered in the presence of serum from nADA+ patients. Thus, nADA development was driven by a proinflammatory environment that triggered activation of the NOTCH2 signaling pathway prior to first IFN-ß administration.

A test for comparing current status survival data with crossing hazard functions and its application to immunogenicity of biotherapeutics.

Several tests have been recently implemented in the nonparametric comparison of current status survival data. However, they are not suited for the situation of crossing hazards. In this setting, we propose a new test specifically designed for crossing hazards alternatives. The proposed test is compared to classical implemented tests through simulations mimicking crossing hazards situations with various schemes of censoring. The results show that the proposed test has a correct type I error and generally outperforms the existing methods. The application of the proposed test on a real dataset on immunogenicity of interferon-ß among multiple sclerosis patients highlights the interest of the proposed test.

A score test for comparing cross-sectional survival data with a fraction of non-susceptible patients and its application in clinical immunology.

OBJECTIVES: In cross-sectional studies of time-to-event data collected by patient examinations at a single random point in time, a fraction of them will not experience the event regardless of the length of the follow-up time. This is the case in clinical immunology studies that include a mixed population, with both immune-reactive and immune-tolerant (or non-susceptible) patients. In these cases, classical tests of current status data may perform poorly. New methods for testing these data are needed. METHODS: In the two-sample comparison setting, we propose a score test for testing the null hypothesis that survival does not differ in either the non-susceptible fraction or the time-to-event distribution among the susceptible fraction. RESULTS: In a wide range of scenarios, simulation results show interesting improvements in power for the proposed score test compared to the logrank-type test in most of the configurations we investigated. In a cross-sectional study of drug immunogenicity among treated multiple sclerosis patients, the proposed score test reveals that gender is associated with the immunogenicity of interferon.

Clinical practice of analysis of anti-drug antibodies against interferon beta and natalizumab in multiple sclerosis patients in Europe: A descriptive study of test results.

Antibodies against biopharmaceuticals (anti-drug antibodies, ADA) have been a well-integrated part of the clinical care of multiple sclerosis (MS) in several European countries. ADA data generated in Europe during the more than 10 years of ADA monitoring in MS patients treated with interferon beta (IFNß) and natalizumab have been pooled and characterized through collaboration within a European consortium. The aim of this study was to report on the clinical practice of ADA testing in Europe, considering the number of ADA tests performed and type of ADA assays used, and to determine the frequency of ADA testing against the different drug preparations in different countries. A common database platform (tranSMART) for querying, analyzing and storing retrospective data of MS cohorts was set up to harmonize the data and compare results of ADA tests between different countries. Retrospective data from six countries (Sweden, Austria, Spain, Switzerland, Germany and Denmark) on 20,695 patients and on 42,555 samples were loaded into tranSMART including data points of age, gender, treatment, samples, and ADA results. The previously observed immunogenic difference among the four IFNß preparations was confirmed in this large dataset. Decreased usage of the more immunogenic preparations IFNß-1a subcutaneous (s.c.) and IFNß-1b s.c. in favor of the least immunogenic preparation IFNß-1a intramuscular (i.m.) was observed. The median time from treatment start to first ADA test correlated with time to first positive test. Shorter times were observed for IFNß-1b-Extavia s.c. (0.99 and 0.94 years) and natalizumab (0.25 and 0.23 years), which were introduced on the market when ADA testing was already available, as compared to IFNß-1a i.m. (1.41 and 2.27 years), IFNß-1b-Betaferon s.c. (2.51 and 1.96 years) and IFNß-1a s.c. (2.11 and 2.09 years) which were available years before routine testing began. A higher rate of anti-IFNß ADA was observed in test samples taken from older patients. Testing for ADA varies between different European countries and is highly dependent on the policy within each country. For drugs where routine monitoring of ADA is not in place, there is a risk that some patients remain on treatment for several years despite ADA positivity. For drugs where a strategy of ADA testing is introduced with the release of the drug, there is a reduced risk of having ADA positive patients and thus of less efficient treatment. This indicates that potential savings in health cost might be achieved by routine analysis of ADA.

Occurrence of Anti-Drug Antibodies against Interferon-Beta and Natalizumab in Multiple Sclerosis: A Collaborative Cohort Analysis.

Immunogenicity of biopharmaceutical products in multiple sclerosis is a frequent side effect which has a multifactorial etiology. Here we study associations between anti-drug antibody (ADA) occurrence and demographic and clinical factors. Retrospective data from routine ADA test laboratories in Sweden, Denmark, Austria and Germany (Dusseldorf group) and from one research study in Germany (Munich group) were gathered to build a collaborative multi-cohort dataset within the framework of the ABIRISK project. A subset of 5638 interferon-beta (IFNß)-treated and 3440 natalizumab-treated patients having data on at least the first two years of treatment were eligible for interval-censored time-to-event analysis. In multivariate Cox regression, IFNß-1a subcutaneous and IFNß-1b subcutaneous treated patients were at higher risk of ADA occurrence compared to IFNß-1a intramuscular-treated patients (pooled HR = 6.4, 95% CI 4.9-8.4 and pooled HR = 8.7, 95% CI 6.6-11.4 respectively). Patients older than 50 years at start of IFNß therapy developed ADA more frequently than adult patients younger than 30 (pooled HR = 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.3). Men developed ADA more frequently than women (pooled HR = 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Interestingly we observed that in Sweden and Germany, patients who started IFNß in April were at higher risk of developing ADA (HR = 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.4 and HR = 2.4, 95% CI 1.5-3.9 respectively). This result is not confirmed in the other cohorts and warrants further investigations. Concerning natalizumab, patients older than 45 years had a higher ADA rate (pooled HR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-1.8) and women developed ADA more frequently than men (pooled HR = 1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0). We confirmed previously reported differences in immunogenicity of the different types of IFNß. Differences in ADA occurrence by sex and age are reported here for the first time. These findings should be further investigated taking into account other exposures and biomarkers.

Bagging survival tree procedure for variable selection and prediction in the presence of nonsusceptible patients.

BACKGROUND: For clinical genomic studies with high-dimensional datasets, tree-based ensemble methods offer a powerful solution for variable selection and prediction taking into account the complex interrelationships between explanatory variables. One of the key component of the tree-building process is the splitting criterion. For survival data, the classical splitting criterion is the Logrank statistic. However, the presence of a fraction of nonsusceptible patients in the studied population advocates for considering a criterion tailored to this peculiar situation. RESULTS: We propose a bagging survival tree procedure for variable selection and prediction where the survival tree-building process relies on a splitting criterion that explicitly focuses on time-to-event survival distribution among susceptible patients. A simulation study shows that our method achieves good performance for the variable selection and prediction. Different criteria for evaluating the importance of the explanatory variables and the prediction performance are reported. Our procedure is illustrated on a genomic dataset with gene expression measurements from early breast cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: In the presence of nonsusceptible patients among the studied population, our procedure represents an efficient way to select event-related explanatory covariates with potential higher-order interaction and identify homogeneous groups of susceptible patients.

A Bagged, Partially Linear, Tree-Based Regression Procedure for Prediction and Variable Selection.

OBJECTIVES: In genomics, variable selection and prediction accounting for the complex interrelationships between explanatory variables represent major challenges. Tree-based methods are powerful alternatives to classical regression models. We have recently proposed the generalized, partially linear, tree-based regression (GPLTR) procedure that integrates the advantages of generalized linear regression (allowing the incorporation of confounding variables) and of tree-based models. In this work, we use bagging to address a classical concern of tree-based methods: their instability. METHODS: We present a bagged GPLTR procedure and three scores for variable importance. The prediction accuracy and the performance of the scores are assessed by simulation. The use of this procedure is exemplified by the analysis of a lung cancer data set. The aim is to predict the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation based on gene expression measurements, taking into account the ethnicity (confounder variable) and perform variable selection. RESULTS: The procedure performs well in terms of prediction accuracy. The scores differentiate predictive variables from noise variables. Based on a lung adenocarcinoma data set, the procedure achieves good predictive performance for EGFR mutation and selects relevant genes. CONCLUSION: The proposed bagged GPLTR procedure performs well for prediction and variable selection.

A novel tree-based procedure for deciphering the genomic spectrum of clinical disease entities.

BACKGROUND: Dissecting the genomic spectrum of clinical disease entities is a challenging task. Recursive partitioning (or classification trees) methods provide powerful tools for exploring complex interplay among genomic factors, with respect to a main factor, that can reveal hidden genomic patterns. To take confounding variables into account, the partially linear tree-based regression (PLTR) model has been recently published. It combines regression models and tree-based methodology. It is however computationally burdensome and not well suited for situations for which a large number of exploratory variables is expected. METHODS: We developed a novel procedure that represents an alternative to the original PLTR procedure, and considered different selection criteria. A simulation study with different scenarios has been performed to compare the performances of the proposed procedure to the original PLTR strategy. RESULTS: The proposed procedure with a Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) achieved good performances to detect the hidden structure as compared to the original procedure. The novel procedure was used for analyzing patterns of copy-number alterations in lung adenocarcinomas, with respect to Kirsten Rat Sarcoma Viral Oncogene Homolog gene (KRAS) mutation status, while controlling for a cohort effect. Results highlight two subgroups of pure or nearly pure wild-type KRAS tumors with particular copy-number alteration patterns. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed procedure with a BIC criterion represents a powerful and practical alternative to the original procedure. Our procedure performs well in a general framework and is simple to implement.