Linking Ecological Specialization to Its Macroevolutionary Consequences: An Example with Passerine Nest Type.

A long-standing hypothesis in evolutionary biology is that the evolution of resource specialization can lead to an evolutionary dead end, where specialists have low diversification rates and limited ability to evolve into generalists. In recent years, advances in comparative methods investigating trait-based differences associated with diversification have enabled more robust tests of this idea and have found mixed support. We test the evolutionary dead end hypothesis by estimating net diversification rate differences associated with nest-type specialization among 3224 species of passerine birds. In particular, we test whether the adoption of hole-nesting, a nest-type specialization that decreases predation, results in reduced diversification rates relative to nesting outside of holes. Further, we examine whether evolutionary transitions to the specialist hole-nesting state have been more frequent than transitions out of hole-nesting. Using diversification models that accounted for background rate heterogeneity and different extinction rate scenarios, we found that hole-nesting specialization was not associated with diversification rate differences. Furthermore, contrary to the assumption that specialists rarely evolve into generalists, we found that transitions out of hole-nesting occur more frequently than transitions into hole-nesting. These results suggest that interspecific competition may limit adoption of hole-nesting, but that such competition does not result in limited diversification of hole-nesters. In conjunction with other recent studies using robust comparative methods, our results add to growing evidence that evolutionary dead ends are not a typical outcome of resource specialization. [Cavity nesting; diversification; hidden-state models; passerines; resource specialization.].

Punctuated evolution in the learned songs of African sunbirds.

Learned traits are thought to be subject to different evolutionary dynamics than other phenotypes, but their evolutionary tempo and mode has received little attention. Learned bird song has been thought to be subject to rapid and constant evolution. However, we know little about the evolutionary modes of learned song divergence over long timescales. Here, we provide evidence that aspects of the territorial songs of Eastern Afromontane sky island sunbirds Cinnyris evolve in a punctuated fashion, with periods of stasis of the order of hundreds of thousands of years or more, broken up by evolutionary pulses. Stasis in learned songs is inconsistent with learned traits being subject to constant or frequent change, as would be expected if selection does not constrain song phenotypes over evolutionary timescales. Learned song may instead follow a process resembling peak shifts on adaptive landscapes. While much research has focused on the potential for rapid evolution in bird song, our results suggest that selection can tightly constrain the evolution of learned songs over long timescales. More broadly, these results demonstrate that some aspects of highly variable, plastic traits can exhibit punctuated evolution, with stasis over long time periods.

Dispersal Predicts Hybrid Zone Widths across Animal Diversity: Implications for Species Borders under Incomplete Reproductive Isolation.

Hybrid zones occur as range boundaries for many animal taxa. One model for how hybrid zones form and stabilize is the tension zone model, a version of which predicts that hybrid zone widths are determined by a balance between random dispersal into hybrid zones and selection against hybrids. Here, we examine whether random dispersal and proxies for selection against hybrids (genetic distances between hybridizing pairs) can explain variation in hybrid zone widths across 131 hybridizing pairs of animals. We show that these factors alone can explain ∼40% of the variation in zone width among animal hybrid zones, with dispersal explaining far more of the variation than genetic distances. Patterns within clades were idiosyncratic. Genetic distances predicted hybrid zone widths particularly well for reptiles, while this relationship was opposite tension zone predictions in birds. Last, the data suggest that dispersal and molecular divergence set lower bounds on hybrid zone widths in animals, indicating that there are geographic restrictions on hybrid zone formation. Overall, our analyses reinforce the fundamental importance of dispersal in hybrid zone formation and more generally in the ecology of range boundaries.

Tempo and timing of ecological trait divergence in bird speciation.

Organismal traits may evolve either gradually or in rapid pulses, but the relative importance of these modes in the generation of species differences is unclear. Additionally, while pulsed evolution is frequently assumed to be associated with speciation events, few studies have explicitly examined how the tempo of trait divergence varies with respect to different geographical phases of speciation, starting with geographic isolation and ending, in many cases, with spatial overlap (sympatry). Here we address these issues by combining divergence time estimates, trait measurements and geographic range data for 952 avian sister species pairs worldwide to examine the tempo and timing of trait divergence in recent speciation events. We show that patterns of divergence in key ecological traits are not gradual, but instead seem to follow a pattern of relative stasis interspersed with evolutionary pulses of varying magnitude. We also find evidence that evolutionary pulses generally precede sympatry, and that greater trait disparity is associated with sympatry. These findings suggest that early pulses of trait divergence promote subsequent transitions to sympatry, rather than occurring after sympatry has been established. Incorporating models with evolutionary pulses of varying magnitude into speciation theory may explain why some species pairs achieve rapid sympatry whereas others undergo prolonged geographical exclusion.

The systematics and biogeography of African tailorbirds (Cisticolidae: Artisornis) with comment on the choice of Bayesian branch-length prior when analyzing heterogeneous data.

The Long-billed Tailorbird (Artisornis moreaui), one of Africa's rarest birds, has a strikingly disjunct distribution, the origin of which has long puzzled biogeographers. One small population (subspecies moreaui) occurs in sub-montane forest in the East Usambara Mountains, a sky island near the coast of northern Tanzania, and another (subspecies sousae) on Serra Jeci in northwestern Mozambique, 950km away. The African Tailorbird, the putative sister-species of Long-billed Tailorbird, also occurs in the East Usambara Mountains and on Serra Jeci, but in addition occupies all the Eastern Arc Mountain forests between these disjunct sites. Stuart (1981) hypothesized that the two tailorbird distributions could be explained by strong ecological competition, with African Tailorbird populations having eliminated Long-billed Tailorbird populations via competitive exclusion in montane forests between the East Usambara and Serra Jeci. If such competitive exclusion explains these geographic distributions, the co-occurrence of the two species in the East Usambara and at Serra Jeci may be ephemeral, with the status of Long-billed Tailorbird especially in doubt. We sought to (1) determine whether the two species of African tailorbirds are indeed sister-species, and (2) test predictions from Stuart's (1981) competitive exclusion hypothesis using genetic data. Phylogenetic analyses of our seven gene dataset (3 mtDNA, 4 introns; 4784bp) indeed place these two species together in the genus Artisornis. Instead of finding shallow divergence among African Tailorbird populations and deep divergence between Long-billed Tailorbird populations as expected from Stuart's hypothesis, we recover deep genetic divergence and geographic structure among populations of both tailorbird species. This result is consistent with long-term co-existence of the two species at East Usambara and Serra Jeci. Observational data from both the East Usambara and Serra Jeci suggest that the two species have diverged in use of forest canopy strata. From a conservation standpoint, our results suggest that extinction of the Long-billed Tailorbird as a function of competition with African Tailorbird is highly unlikely, and should not be viewed as imminent. Threats to its survival are instead anthropogenic, and conservation measures should take this into account. Finally, our empirical results suggest that mis-specification of the branch-length prior in Bayesian analyses of mitochondrial DNA data can have a profound effect on the overall tree-length (sum of branch-lengths), whereas the topology and support values tend to remain more stable. In contrast, mis-specification of the branch-length prior had a lesser impact on all aspects of the nuclear-only DNA analyses. This problem may be exacerbated when mitochondrial and nuclear DNA analyses are combined in a total evidence approach.

Drift Barriers to Quality Control When Genes Are Expressed at Different Levels.

Gene expression is imperfect, sometimes leading to toxic products. Solutions take two forms: globally reducing error rates, or ensuring that the consequences of erroneous expression are relatively harmless. The latter is optimal, but because it must evolve independently at so many loci, it is subject to a stringent "drift barrier"-a limit to how weak the effects of a deleterious mutation s can be, while still being effectively purged by selection, expressed in terms of the population size N of an idealized population such that purging requires s < -1/N In previous work, only large populations evolved the optimal local solution, small populations instead evolved globally low error rates, and intermediate populations were bistable, with either solution possible. Here, we take into consideration the fact that the effectiveness of purging varies among loci, because of variation in gene expression level, and variation in the intrinsic vulnerabilities of different gene products to error. The previously found dichotomy between the two kinds of solution breaks down, replaced by a gradual transition as a function of population size. In the extreme case of a small enough population, selection fails to maintain even the global solution against deleterious mutations, explaining the nonmonotonic relationship between effective population size and transcriptional error rate that was recently observed in experiments on Escherichia coli, Caenorhabditis elegans, and Buchnera aphidicola.

Genetic surfing, not allopatric divergence, explains spatial sorting of mitochondrial haplotypes in venomous coralsnakes.

Strong spatial sorting of genetic variation in contiguous populations is often explained by local adaptation or secondary contact following allopatric divergence. A third explanation, spatial sorting by stochastic effects of range expansion, has been considered less often though theoretical models suggest it should be widespread, if ephemeral. In a study designed to delimit species within a clade of venomous coralsnakes, we identified an unusual pattern within the Texas coral snake (Micrurus tener): strong spatial sorting of divergent mitochondrial (mtDNA) lineages over a portion of its range, but weak sorting of these lineages elsewhere. We tested three alternative hypotheses to explain this pattern-local adaptation, secondary contact following allopatric divergence, and range expansion. Collectively, near panmixia of nuclear DNA, the signal of range expansion associated sampling drift, expansion origins in the Gulf Coast of Mexico, and species distribution modeling suggest that the spatial sorting of divergent mtDNA lineages within M. tener has resulted from genetic surfing of standing mtDNA variation-not local adaptation or allopatric divergence. Our findings highlight the potential for the stochastic effects of recent range expansion to mislead estimations of population divergence made from mtDNA, which may be exacerbated in systems with low vagility, ancestral mtDNA polymorphism, and male-biased dispersal.

Social selection parapatry in Afrotropical sunbirds.

The extent of range overlap of incipient and recent species depends on the type and magnitude of phenotypic divergence that separates them, and the consequences of phenotypic divergence on their interactions. Signal divergence by social selection likely initiates many speciation events, but may yield niche-conserved lineages predisposed to limit each others' ranges via ecological competition. Here, we examine this neglected aspect of social selection speciation theory in relation to the discovery of a nonecotonal species border between sunbirds. We find that Nectarinia moreaui and Nectarinia fuelleborni meet in a ∼6 km wide contact zone, as estimated by molecular cline analysis. These species exploit similar bioclimatic niches, but sing highly divergent learned songs, consistent with divergence by social selection. Cline analyses suggest that within-species stabilizing social selection on song-learning predispositions maintains species differences in song despite both hybridization and cultural transmission. We conclude that ecological competition between moreaui and fuelleborni contributes to the stabilization of the species border, but that ecological competition acts in conjunction with reproductive interference. The evolutionary maintenance of learned song differences in a hybrid zone recommend this study system for future studies on the mechanisms of learned song divergence and its role in speciation.

Is the climate right for pleistocene rewilding? Using species distribution models to extrapolate climatic suitability for mammals across continents.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used for extrapolation, or predicting suitable regions for species under new geographic or temporal scenarios. However, SDM predictions may be prone to errors if species are not at equilibrium with climatic conditions in the current range and if training samples are not representative. Here the controversial "Pleistocene rewilding" proposal was used as a novel example to address some of the challenges of extrapolating modeled species-climate relationships outside of current ranges. Climatic suitability for three proposed proxy species (Asian elephant, African cheetah and African lion) was extrapolated to the American southwest and Great Plains using Maxent, a machine-learning species distribution model. Similar models were fit for Oryx gazella, a species native to Africa that has naturalized in North America, to test model predictions. To overcome biases introduced by contracted modern ranges and limited occurrence data, random pseudo-presence points generated from modern and historical ranges were used for model training. For all species except the oryx, models of climatic suitability fit to training data from historical ranges produced larger areas of predicted suitability in North America than models fit to training data from modern ranges. Four naturalized oryx populations in the American southwest were correctly predicted with a generous model threshold, but none of these locations were predicted with a more stringent threshold. In general, the northern Great Plains had low climatic suitability for all focal species and scenarios considered, while portions of the southern Great Plains and American southwest had low to intermediate suitability for some species in some scenarios. The results suggest that the use of historical, in addition to modern, range information and randomly sampled pseudo-presence points may improve model accuracy. This has implications for modeling range shifts of organisms in response to climate change.

Disperser limitation and recruitment of an endemic African tree in a fragmented landscape.

Forest fragmentation may have positive or negative effects on tropical tree populations. Our earlier study of an endemic African tree, Leptonychia usambarensis (Sterculiaceae), in the East Usambara Mountains of Tanzania, found poorer recruitment of seedlings and juveniles in small fragments compared to continuous forest, and concomitant reduction of seed-dispersal agents and seed dispersal. However, the possibility that other biotic or abiotic consequences of the fragmentation process contribute to diminished recruitment in fragments was left open. Here we test whether excessive seed predation, diminished fecundity, low seed quality, or adverse abiotic effects acted independently or in concert with reduced seed dispersal to limit seedling and juvenile recruitment in fragments. Extended observations of disperser activity, a seed placement experiment, seed predator censuses, and reciprocal seedling transplants from forest and fragment sources failed to support the alternative hypotheses for poorer seedling and juvenile recruitment in fragments, leaving reduced seed dispersal as the most plausible mechanism. Poorer recruitment of this species in forest fragments, where high edge-to-area ratios admit more light than in continuous forest, is particularly striking because the tree is an early successional species that might be expected to thrive in disturbed microhabitats.