Growth patterns reflect response to antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive infants: potential utility in resource-poor settings.

Laboratory monitoring of HIV-infected children is the current standard of care in the United States to guide the appropriate use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Although ART is becoming a reality in some developing countries, laboratory monitoring of ART is costly, necessitating creative approaches to monitoring. As an initial step to guide monitoring of HIV progression in low resource settings, we assessed the utility of the physical examination to predict clinical progression of HIV. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of HIV-infected children using data from Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group Protocol 300. We developed a clinical predictive model, and compared the utility of the clinical model to the change in HIV RNA viral load as diagnostic tests of ART failure. The clinical model incorporated treatment regimen, age, and height velocity: a three-level clinical predictive model provided likelihood ratios of 0.3, 3.9, and 14. For decline in RNA the likelihood ratios were 0.2 (> 1 log decline), 1.4, and 3.5 (> log increase). We developed a simple clinical predictive model that was able to predict clinical progression of HIV after initiation of new ART. The clinical model performed similarly to using changes in HIV RNA viral load. These data should be validated internationally and prospectively, because the test subjects were from a resource rich environment and growth patterns in undernourished children may be impacted differently by HIV and its treatment. The model was most pertinent to children 36 months of age or younger, and was conducted in children receiving monotherapy and dual therapy.

Immune reconstitution in human immunodeficiency virus-infected children receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has brought about rapid declines in HIV-1 RNA concentrations and an increase in CD4+ counts in HIV-1-infected children. These changes are often accompanied by clinical improvement; however, the extent to which immune reconstitution occurs is not known. DESIGN: We compared two cohorts (n = 35) of HIV-1-infected children to evaluate the effects of HAART on immune recovery. Cohort 1 (C1) included clinically well children receiving HAART with a CD4 >22% at study initiation. Before HAART all children had moderately to severely suppressed immune function by CDC criteria (CD4 <25%) or CDC Category B or C disease. Cohort 2 (C2) included children with no current or past evidence of immunosuppression based on CDC criteria (CD4 >25%) and no evidence of clinical disease. Children in C2 were receiving a non-HAART regimen. METHODS: Immunophenotyping was performed to characterize CD4+ and CD8+ subsets with regard to maturation and activation. T cell rearrangement excision circles (TRECs) were measured to quantify recent thymic emigrants. RESULTS: No difference was found in percent CD4+ or percent CD8+ T cells or maturation markers between C1 and C2. There was significantly less expression of activation markers in both CD4+ and CD8+ cells in C1. There was no difference in TREC production between C1 and C2. CONCLUSION: Moderately to severely suppressed HIV-1-infected children receiving HAART are able to reconstitute their immune systems to a degree that is indistinguishable from that of stable, CDC Class A1 HIV-1-infected children with regard to CD4+ and CD8+ T cell subsets, expression of cellular maturation markers and TREC production.

Successful prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in HIV-infected children using smaller than recommended dosages of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole.

Prophylaxis against Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) is an essential part of the management of children with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS). No dose-ranging studies were ever performed; therefore, the amount of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) needed to suppress PCP in children with HIV/AIDS is not known. The dose recommended by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has been thought to be just above the threshold needed for prevention, based on anecdotal breakthrough PCP in cancer patients who were improperly dosed. We have been giving prophylaxis based on body weight rather than surface area, and this, combined with growth of our children, has led to a large experience with dosages lower than the currently recommended 150 mg/m2. The medical records of children with HIV who met CDC guidelines for institution of PCP prophylaxis were reviewed. To ascertain the per square meter (m2) dosage each child was receiving, body surface area was calculated from height and weight measurements. Dosages were recalculated every 6 months and at each dosage change. Data regarding PCP infection, bacterial infections, and side effects of TMP-SMX were extracted. Data were compiled from 1,719.5 child-months of TMP-SMX prophylaxis, including 1,532.5 child-months below the currently recommended dose. Sixty-seven percent of our child-months were at or below two-thirds the CDC recommended dose. There were no cases of proven or suspected PCP. Incidence of other serious bacterial infections was low. Bacteremia and sepsis with Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common proven bacterial infection, at a rate of 5.5 episodes per 100 child-years. The incidence of bacterial infection did not vary by the dose of TMP-SMX. TMP-SMX prophylaxis was well tolerated; most reactions were mild and self-limited and did not recur with re-institution of the drug. Only 6.1% of this cohort had TMP-SMX prophylaxis discontinued due to perceived toxicity. These data show that the currently recommended dose of TMP-SMX (150 mg/m2) may not be required to prevent PCP in children with HIV/AIDS. The drug is well tolerated at all dosage levels. The incidence of serious bacterial infection in this cohort of patients did not depend upon the amount of TMP-SMX prescribed. A prospective, controlled clinical trial of low-dose TMP-SMX for children with HIV infection is warranted.

Rational testing of the HIV-exposed infant.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were 1) to evaluate testing regimens of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-exposed infants and 2) to determine optimal methods of follow-up by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) testing. METHODS: We reviewed the results from 742 HIV-exposed infants in the state of North Carolina; 2474 samples were tested for HIV by DNA polymerase chain reaction (PCR) at the University of North Carolina Retrovirology Core Laboratory. We then reviewed the utility and costs of ELISA testing of all HIV-exposed infants who were seen at the Duke University Pediatric Infectious Disease Clinic between January 1, 1993, and May 5, 1998. We used likelihood ratios to model probability of HIV infection given 3 negative DNA (PCR) tests and to provide recommendations on the use of ELISA follow-up. RESULTS: The overall sensitivity of the DNA PCR was 87.1%, and its specificity was 99.9%. We evaluated 224 HIV-exposed infants who were seen at Duke University and who had at least 3 negative diagnostic tests using either DNA PCR tests or HIV blood cultures. All 178 infants who subsequently underwent ELISA testing ultimately demonstrated seroreversion. The Duke University Pediatric Infectious Disease Clinic transferred the care of 65 patients to primary care physicians before ELISA testing and retained the care of the remaining 159 patients. Children who remained in Duke's care were more likely to have documentation of seroreversion (158 of 159 vs 20 of 65). We reviewed costs of travel, physician appointment, and HIV antibody testing in a tertiary care setting. Given 3 negative PCR tests, the expected cost per case of HIV detected by a positive ELISA assay is $23.8 million. CONCLUSIONS: Documentation of seroreversion in this cohort was nearly complete in the multidisciplinary subspecialty clinic but not when such responsibility was left to the primary care physician. Given the low probability of disease in patients who have had 3 negative PCR tests, documentation of a negative ELISA may not be an appropriate use of medical resources.

Bacteremia, central catheters, and neonates: when to pull the line.

OBJECTIVES: Physicians who treat neonates who become bacteremic while dependent on central venous catheters face a serious and common dilemma. We sought 1) to evaluate the relationship between central venous catheter removal and outcome in bacteremic neonates, 2) to determine species of bacteria that are associated with an increased risk of infectious complications if the central catheter is not removed promptly, and 3) to provide evidence-based recommendations for central catheter management. METHOD: A retrospective cohort study of all neonates who had central venous access and developed bacteremia between July 1, 1995, and July 31, 1999, was conducted in the Duke University neonatal intensive care unit. RESULTS: The outcome for patients in whom the central catheter was not removed within 24 hours of organism identification was significantly worse (odds ratio = 9.8) than it was for those whose catheters were removed promptly. For patients who were infected with Staphylococcus aureus or with nonenteric Gram-negative rods, delayed removal of the central catheter was associated with complicated bacteremia. Catheter sterilization was attempted in 27 neonates who were infected with enteric Gram-negative rods; only 10 of these infants retained their catheters without infection-related complications. Infants who had 4 consecutive blood cultures that were positive for coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CoNS) were at significantly increased risk for end-organ damage and death, compared with infants who had 3 or fewer positive blood culture for CoNS (odds ratio = 29.58). CONCLUSIONS: Bacteremic infants experienced fewer infection-related complications when the central catheter was removed promptly. One positive blood culture for S aureus or a Gram-negative rod warrants central line removal in a neonate. Clinicians who are faced with a neonate who has 1 positive culture for CoNS may attempt medical management without central catheter removal, but documentation of subsequent negative blood cultures is crucial. Once a neonate has 3 positive blood cultures for CoNS, the central catheter should be removed.central line, neonate, bacteremia, bacteria, umbilical catheter, Broviac, percutaneous.

Functionally inert HIV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes do not play a major role in chronically infected adults and children.

The highly sensitive quantitation of virus-specific CD8(+) T cells using major histocompatibility complex-peptide tetramer assays has revealed higher levels of cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) in acute and chronic virus infections than were recognized previously. However, studies in lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection have shown that tetramer assays may include measurement of a substantial number of tetramer-binding cells that are functionally inert. Such phenotypically silent CTLs, which lack cytolytic function and do not produce interferon (IFN)-gamma, have been hypothesized to explain the persistence of virus in the face of a quantitatively large immune response, particularly when CD4 help is impaired. In this study, we examined the role of functionally inert CTLs in chronic HIV infection. Subjects studied included children and adults (n = 42) whose viral loads ranged from <50 to >100,000 RNA copies/ml plasma. Tetramer assays were compared with three functional assays: enzyme-linked immunospot (Elispot), intracellular cytokine staining, and precursor frequency (limiting dilution assay [LDA]) cytotoxicity assays. Strong positive associations were observed between cell numbers derived by the Elispot and the tetramer assay (r = 0.90). An even stronger association between tetramer-derived numbers and intracellular cytokine staining for IFN-gamma was present (r = 0.97). The majority (median 76%) of tetramer-binding cells were consistently detectable via intracellular IFN-gamma cytokine staining. Furthermore, modifications to the LDA, using a low input cell number into each well, enabled LDAs to reach equivalence with the other methods of CTL enumeration. These data together show that functionally inert CTLs do not play a significant role in chronic pediatric or adult HIV infection.

When to suspect fungal infection in neonates: A clinical comparison of Candida albicans and Candida parapsilosis fungemia with coagulase-negative staphylococcal bacteremia.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the epidemiology of candidemia in our neonatal intensive care unit; to compare risk factors, clinical presentation, and outcomes for neonates infected with Candida albicans, Candida parapsilosis, and coagulase-negative staphylococcus (CoNS); and to suggest a rational approach to empiric antifungal therapy of neonates at risk for nosocomial infection. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review of all neonatal intensive care unit patients with systemic candidiasis or CoNS infection between January 1, 1995 and July 31, 1998 at Duke University Medical Center. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients were reviewed. Nine of 19 patients infected with C parapsilosis and 5 of 15 patients infected with C albicans died of fungemia. Seventeen neonates had >2 positive cultures for CoNS obtained within 96 hours and 1 died. There was no statistically significant difference in birth weight, gestational age, or age at diagnosis between patient groups; however, candidemic patients had a sevenfold higher mortality rate. Before diagnosis, candidemic patients had greater exposure to systemic steroids, antibiotics, and catecholamine infusions. Of the 51 patients, 32 received third-generation cephalosporins in the 2 weeks before diagnosis and 19 did not. Twenty-nine of the 32 who were treated with third-generation cephalosporins subsequently developed candidemia, while candidemia occurred in only 5 of 19 patients who were not treated with cephalosporins. At the time of diagnosis, candidemic patients were more likely to have required mechanical ventilation and were less likely to be tolerating enteral feeding. Multivariate clustered logistic regression analysis revealed that candidemic patients had more exposure to third-generation cephalosporins. Once the clinician was notified of a positive blood culture for Candida, patients infected with C parapsilosis retained their central catheters longer than patients infected with C albicans. CONCLUSIONS: In this retrospective review, we were able to identify aspects of the clinical presentation and medication history that may be helpful in differentiating between candidemia and CoNS bacteremia. Those key features may be used by clinicians to initiate empiric amphotericin B therapy in premature neonates at risk for nosocomial infections. Prolonged use of third-generation cephalosporins was strongly associated with candidemia. There was no statistically significant difference in the morbidity and mortality between patients infected with C parapsilosis and those infected with C albicans. Observed delays in removal of the central venous catheter may have contributed to finding a mortality rate from C parapsilosis that was higher than was previously reported.

Treatment-mediated changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 RNA and CD4 cell counts as predictors of weight growth failure, cognitive decline, and survival in HIV-infected children.

This meta-analysis of 5 large studies of the Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group was undertaken to evaluate the predictive value of antiretroviral treatment-mediated changes in 3 markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 disease progression-HIV-1 RNA level, CD4 cell count, and CD4 percentage-for weight growth failure, cognitive decline, and survival in HIV-infected children. Proportional hazards models were used to assess the prognostic value of the markers at baseline and after 24 weeks of treatment, with data from 1089 children. Among children receiving nucleoside with or without nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors, higher immunologic and lower virologic markers at baseline and after 24 weeks were significant independent predictors of survival, whereas virologic markers were significant predictors of weight growth and cognitive failure in children >1 year old. The finding of differential age effects on pediatric-specific clinical outcomes emphasizes the need for continued investigation of treatment effects in children.

Candidal mycetoma in the neonatal kidney.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the natural history of renal mycetoma (fungal balls) in the neonate. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review of all neonatal intensive care unit patients with systemic candidiasis and sonographic evidence of renal mycetoma admitted to the Duke University Medical Center between January 1, 1993, and July 1, 1998. RESULTS: Fourteen patients were reviewed. Three died from fungemia, and 3 died from other causes months after completing treatment. Ten patients had urine cultures obtained within 1 week of diagnosis; each had a positive routine or fungal urine culture for candida. The rate of improvement of renal mycetoma by ultrasound was variable, ranging from 10 days to 4 months and was not predictive of survival or long-term renal function. All patients who were discharged from the hospital had creatinine

Pharmacokinetics of didanosine in antepartum and postpartum human immunodeficiency virus--infected pregnant women and their neonates: an AIDS clinical trials group study.

Didanosine (ddI) pharmacokinetics in antepartum and postpartum human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected women and their neonates were studied. HIV-infected pregnant women received an intravenous (iv) ddI infusion (1.6 mg/kg/h) or an oral dose (200 mg bid or 125 mg bid) at 31 weeks antepartum and 6 weeks postpartum. Blood samples were obtained regularly up to 6 or 8 h after drug administration. The same oral dose of ddI (bid) was administered until labor began. Then, ddI was infused iv until delivery. An oral pharmacokinetic study (60 mg/m2) was conducted in infants at day 1 and at week 6 after birth. Plasma concentrations of ddI were measured by radioimmunoassay. After iv ddI administration, only the maternal plasma clearance was found to be significantly increased antepartum (1028+/-231 mL/min) versus postpartum (707+/-213 mL/min). No pharmacokinetic parameters after oral administration were significantly affected by pregnancy. The pharmacokinetics of ddI in the neonates were highly variable. We conclude that the oral ddI dose need not be adjusted during pregnancy.

Neurologic, neurocognitive, and brain growth outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus-infected children receiving different nucleoside antiretroviral regimens. Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 152 Study Team.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the impact of three different nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor regimens, zidovudine (ZDV) monotherapy, didanosine (ddI) monotherapy, and ZDV plus ddI combination therapy, on central nervous system (CNS) outcomes in symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children. METHODS: Serial neurologic examinations, neurocognitive tests, and brain growth assessments (head circumference measurements and head computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging studies) were performed in 831 infants and children who participated in a randomized double-blind clinical trial of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors. The Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group study 152 conducted between 1991 and 1995 enrolled antiretroviral therapy-naive children. Subjects were stratified by age (3 to <30 months of age or 30 months to 18 years of age) and randomized in equal proportions to the three treatment groups. RESULTS: Combination ZDV and ddI therapy was superior to either ZDV or ddI monotherapy for most of the CNS outcomes evaluated. Treatment differences were observed within both age strata. ZDV monotherapy showed a modest statistically significant improvement in cognitive performance compared with ddI monotherapy during the initial 24 weeks, but for subsequent protection against CNS deterioration no clear difference was observed between the two monotherapy arms. CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy with ZDV and ddI was more effective than either of the two monotherapies against CNS manifestations of human immunodeficiency virus disease. The results of this study did not indicate a long-term beneficial effect for ZDV monotherapy compared with ddI monotherapy.

Combination therapy with stavudine (d4T) plus didanosine (ddI) in children with human immunodeficiency virus infection. The Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 327 Team.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the safety, tolerance, and antiviral activity of combination therapy with stavudine (d4T) plus didanosine (ddI) in symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children. METHODS: The study enrolled HIV-infected children who successfully completed Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group (PACTG) protocol 240 (d4T versus zidovudine [ZDV] monotherapy) without disease progression or who had received ZDV monotherapy by prescription for at least the preceding 6 months. Children who had received d4T monotherapy in PACTG 240 were assigned to treatment with d4T plus ddI (arm 1). Children who had received ZDV monotherapy in PACTG 240 or by prescription were randomized in a double-blind manner to treatment with either d4T alone (arm 2) or d4T plus ddI (arm 3). Patients were followed for 48 weeks each. RESULTS: A total of 108 children were enrolled. The mean age was 5.0 years (range, 1. 6 to 11.5 years), with mean baseline plasma HIV RNA concentration and CD4(+) lymphocyte count of 4.6 log10 copies/mL (range, 2.6 to 5. 9 log10 copies/mL) and 819 cells/microL (range, 8 to 3431 cells/microL), respectively. Both d4T monotherapy and d4T plus ddI combination therapy were well-tolerated, with 96 (89%) patients completing 48 weeks of study treatment. Plasma HIV RNA concentrations showed larger average declines in arm 3 compared with arm 2 at study week 12 (0.49 vs 0.18 log10 copies/mL, respectively); these average declines were maintained through week 48 (0.51 vs 0.17 log10 copies/mL, respectively). Fewer than 8% of the patients in any of the treatment arms had plasma HIV RNA concentrations below the limit of quantification (200 copies/mL) at any time point. CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy with d4T plus ddI is safe and well-tolerated in HIV-infected children, producing durable, but incomplete, suppression of virus replication. This combination of nucleoside antiretroviral agents may provide a valuable backbone to protease inhibitor-containing treatment regimens for HIV-infected children.

A phase I study of abacavir (1592U89) alone and in combination with other antiretroviral agents in infants and children with human immunodeficiency virus infection. AIDS Clinical Trials Group 330 Team.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the pharmacokinetic features, safety, and tolerance of abacavir, given alone and in combination with other nucleoside antiretroviral agents, in symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected children. METHODS: HIV-infected children discontinued prior antiretroviral therapy and were given abacavir orally, 4 mg/kg every 12 hours for 6 weeks, followed by 8 mg/kg every 12 hours for 6 weeks (n = 39); or 8 mg/kg every 12 hours for 12 weeks (n = 8). Children then were randomized to receive a second nucleoside antiretroviral agent (zidovudine, stavudine, didanosine, or lamivudine), plus abacavir. Pharmacokinetics, safety, tolerance, CD4(+) lymphocyte counts, and plasma HIV RNA concentrations were evaluated. RESULTS: At a dose of 8 mg/kg every 12 hours, area under the plasma concentration-versus-time curves and plasma half-life values were comparable with those reported for adults receiving abacavir at a dose of 300 mg twice daily. One case each of hypersensitivity reaction and peripheral neuropathy occurred during abacavir monotherapy. Three children experienced neutropenia while receiving abacavir in combination with another antiretroviral agent. Mean CD4(+) lymphocyte count and plasma HIV RNA concentration did not change when prior antiretroviral therapy was changed to abacavir monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Abacavir therapy is associated with good short-term tolerance and safety in HIV-infected children. Phase III studies are in progress to assess the antiviral activity of abacavir in children and adults.

A randomized study of combined zidovudine-lamivudine versus didanosine monotherapy in children with symptomatic therapy-naive HIV-1 infection. The Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group Protocol 300 Study Team.

OBJECTIVE: The Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group (PACTG) Protocol 300 assessed the clinical efficacy and safety of combination zidovudine/lamivudine (ZDV/3TC) compared with either didanosine (ddI) alone or combination ZDV/ddI. STUDY DESIGN: Children with symptomatic human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, 6 weeks through 15 years of age, were stratified according to age and randomly assigned to receive ddI, ZDV/3TC, or ZDV/ddI. The primary endpoint was time to first progression of HIV disease or death. Enrollment in the ZDV/ddI arm stopped after 11 months on the basis of results of PACTG Protocol 152, but blinded follow-up continued. RESULTS: For the 471 children who could be evaluated, the median age was 2.7 years, median CD4 cell count was 699 cells/mm3, and median log10 HIV RNA was 5.1/mL. Median follow-up was 9.4 months. Patients receiving ZDV/3TC had a lower risk of HIV disease progression or death than those receiving ddI alone (15 vs 38 failures, P = .0006) and a lower risk of death (3 vs 15 deaths, P = .0039). Weight and height growth rates, CD4+ cell counts, and RNA concentrations showed results favoring ZDV/3TC. For patients concurrently randomized to all 3 treatment arms, both ZDV/3TC and ZDV/ddI recipients had lower risk of HIV disease progression than those who received ddI alone (P = .0026 and P = .0045). CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy with either ZDV/3TC or ZDV/ddI was superior, as determined by clinical and laboratory measures, to monotherapy with ddI.

Genetic diversity among Mycobacterium avium complex strains recovered from children with and without human immunodeficiency virus infection.

The genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infections in children with and without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were evaluated. Isolates recovered from 136 children were subtyped by sequence analysis of a 360-bp region of the gene (hsp65) encoding a 65-kDa heat-shock protein. Twenty-one distinct hsp65 alleles were identified. On the basis of hsp65 genotype, 6 isolates were not MAC organisms. Of the remaining 130 samples, 61% were M. avium, 37% were Mycobacterium intracellulare, and 2% were species nonspecific MAC. Eighty-eight percent of the isolates obtained from HIV-infected children were M. avium. In contrast, only 38% of the isolates obtained from children without HIV infection were M. avium (chi2 test, P < .001). M. avium isolates were further subtyped by Southern blot analysis with insertion element IS1245. Taken together, no evidence for a single clonal M. avium strain causing infection was detected.

Pediatric AIDS prognosis using somatic growth velocity.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the natural history of somatic growth in HIV infection by constructing age-specific growth velocity norms and to assess specific prognostic information available using these norms. DESIGN: Observations on 1338 HIV-infected children aged 3 months to 15 years who participated in one of four US clinical trials of pediatric anti-HIV therapies were pooled; baseline growth velocity data were obtained using the first 6 months of observation for each child. METHODS: Distributions of physical growth velocities in HIV-infected children in the Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group were computed. Statistical smoothing of growth histories was employed to derive velocity estimates, and quantile regression analysis of growth velocities was performed to allow comparisons of growth rates in age- and gender-heterogeneous cohorts in the context of HIV infection. The quantile regressions provide corrected z-scores for growth velocity that appropriately compare HIV-infected children with one another for the purpose of distinguishing more from less favorable prognoses. RESULTS: Consistent deficits in growth velocity amongst HIV-infected children were revealed when compared with the Fels Institute velocity standards. Approximately 33% of height (and 20% of weight) age- and sex-corrected velocity measurements obtained in the first 6 months of clinical trial participation lay beneath the corresponding third percentiles of the Fels reference distributions, which are commonly regarded as critical indicators of growth failure. Proportional hazards regression tests indicated that both weight and height velocity contributed significant information on the risk of death among children with AIDS after adjusting for antiretroviral therapy received, CD4 cell counts, and age at trial enrollment. Comparing subjects who differ in initial weight velocity by one age- and sex-corrected SD, the relative hazard of death was 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.72; P < or = 0.0001) in favor of the child with greater weight velocity, controlling for antiretroviral therapy received, age and CD4 cell count at baseline. The analogous hazard ratio for height velocity was 0.68 (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.79; P < or = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Suitably normalized growth velocities are informative and inexpensive criteria for pediatric AIDS prognosis; the growth velocity distributions presented will be useful for comparing growth effects of new therapeutic strategies to those of single and combination antiretrovirals employed for maintenance of pediatric HIV infection in the mid-1990s.

Evaluation of surrogate markers and clinical outcomes in two-year follow-up of eighty-six human immunodeficiency virus-infected pediatric patients.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the prognostic value of surrogate markers (HIV RNA copy number, CD4 counts and CDC clinical and immunologic categories) in HIV-infected children through a 2-year period. METHODS: Eighty-six HIV-infected children followed by the Duke Pediatric HIV Clinic in the fall of 1994 were evaluated for plasma HIV RNA concentration (viral load), CD4 lymphocyte percentage, age, antiretroviral treatment status and CDC clinical and immunologic categories. Follow-up evaluations were performed for approximately 2 years, and the time to progression to a new CDC category C diagnosis or death was noted. RESULTS: Of 86 children 22 had progression to new Category C diagnosis or death. Seven children died, 17 had a new Category C diagnosis and 2 had both. Among children who progressed, the median CD4 percentage at entry was 3% (absolute count, 75 cells/mm3), whereas children who had no disease progression entered with a median of 29% (868 cells/mm3). The overall median viral load at study entry was 4.58 log10 copies/ml (38,019 copies/ml, with a range of 1.7 to 6.78 logs). Children who had no disease progression had a median log copy number of 4.43, whereas 5.18 was the median for children whose disease progressed. Log copy number declined over time in children < 3 years of age, whereas it remained fairly consistent for children 3 years or older. Progression rates were determined by entry plasma HIV RNA concentration quartiles [quartile boundaries < 4.18, 4.58, > 5.08 log RNA copy/ml (< 15,136, 38,019 and > 120,226 copies/ml, respectively)]. Progression rates by quartile were 0 of 21, 4 of 22, 5 of 21 and 13 of 22. Kaplan-Meier survival curves defined by CD4% less than or greater than 15 and log RNA less than or greater than 5.0 (100,000) revealed that patients with CD4% less than 15 and plasma HIV RNA concentration > 5 log10 copies/ml did least well: 11 of 12 (92%) had a progression event at a median of 179 days. Patients with a high CD4 percentage and high viral load, or a low CD4 percentage and low viral load did similarly; 5 of 14 (36%) and 4 of 12 (33%) had progression events, respectively. Patients with high CD4 percentage and low viral load did best: only 2 of 48 (4%) had a progression event. CONCLUSIONS: The two most significant prognostic indicators of disease progression were the initial CD4 percentage and the plasma HIV RNA concentration, and a combination of CD4 percentage and virus load best predicted which children had progression events. Progression was less common in children who had < 100,000 HIV RNA copies/ml initially (6 of 60 vs. 16 of 26; P < 0.001; relative risk 0.16). Therefore it seems reasonable that in a child for whom complete suppression is not possible, a threshold of 100,000 (5 log10 copies/ml) can be used to mandate a change in therapy.