Integrating natural gradients, experiments, and statistical modeling in a distributed network experiment: An example from the WaRM Network.

A growing body of work examines the direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystems, typically by using manipulative experiments at a single site or performing meta-analyses across many independent experiments. However, results from single-site studies tend to have limited generality. Although meta-analytic approaches can help overcome this by exploring trends across sites, the inherent limitations in combining disparate datasets from independent approaches remain a major challenge. In this paper, we present a globally distributed experimental network that can be used to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of climate change. We discuss how natural gradients, experimental approaches, and statistical techniques can be combined to best inform predictions about responses to climate change, and we present a globally distributed experiment that utilizes natural environmental gradients to better understand long-term community and ecosystem responses to environmental change. The warming and (species) removal in mountains (WaRM) network employs experimental warming and plant species removals at high- and low-elevation sites in a factorial design to examine the combined and relative effects of climatic warming and the loss of dominant species on community structure and ecosystem function, both above- and belowground. The experimental design of the network allows for increasingly common statistical approaches to further elucidate the direct and indirect effects of warming. We argue that combining ecological observations and experiments along gradients is a powerful approach to make stronger predictions of how ecosystems will function in a warming world as species are lost, or gained, in local communities.

Herbivores in Arctic ecosystems: Effects of climate change and implications for carbon and nutrient cycling.

Arctic terrestrial herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumption of resources, waste production, and habitat-modifying behaviors. The strength of these effects is likely to change spatially and temporally as climate change drives shifts in herbivore abundance, distribution, and activity timing. Here, we review how herbivores influence tundra carbon and nutrient dynamics through their consumptive and nonconsumptive effects. We also present evidence for herbivore responses to climate change and discuss how these responses may alter the spatial and temporal distribution of herbivore impacts. Several current knowledge gaps limit our understanding of the changing functional roles of herbivores; these include limited characterization of the spatial and temporal variability in herbivore impacts and of how herbivore activities influence the cycling of elements beyond carbon. We conclude by highlighting approaches that will promote better understanding of herbivore effects on tundra ecosystems, including their integration into existing biogeochemical models, new applications of remote sensing techniques, and the continued use of distributed experiments.

Model responses to CO2 and warming are underestimated without explicit representation of Arctic small-mammal grazing.

We use a simple model of coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems to examine how "explicitly representing grazers" vs. "having grazer effects implicitly aggregated in with other biogeochemical processes in the model" alters predicted responses to elevated carbon dioxide and warming. The aggregated approach can affect model predictions because grazer-mediated processes can respond differently to changes in climate compared with the processes with which they are typically aggregated. We use small-mammal grazers in a tundra as an example and find that the typical three-to-four-year cycling frequency is too fast for the effects of cycle peaks and troughs to be fully manifested in the ecosystem biogeochemistry. We conclude that implicitly aggregating the effects of small-mammal grazers with other processes results in an underestimation of ecosystem response to climate change, relative to estimations in which the grazer effects are explicitly represented. The magnitude of this underestimation increases with grazer density. We therefore recommend that grazing effects be incorporated explicitly when applying models of ecosystem response to global change.

Determinants of community compositional change are equally affected by global change.

Global change is impacting plant community composition, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are unclear. Using a dataset of 58 global change experiments, we tested the five fundamental mechanisms of community change: changes in evenness and richness, reordering, species gains and losses. We found 71% of communities were impacted by global change treatments, and 88% of communities that were exposed to two or more global change drivers were impacted. Further, all mechanisms of change were equally likely to be affected by global change treatments-species losses and changes in richness were just as common as species gains and reordering. We also found no evidence of a progression of community changes, for example, reordering and changes in evenness did not precede species gains and losses. We demonstrate that all processes underlying plant community composition changes are equally affected by treatments and often occur simultaneously, necessitating a wholistic approach to quantifying community changes.

Does plant community plasticity mediate microbial homeostasis?

Microbial homeostasis-constant microbial element ratios along resource gradients-is a core ecological tenet, yet not all systems display homeostasis. We suggest investigations of homeostasis mechanisms must also consider plant-microbial interactions. Specifically, we hypothesized that ecosystems with strong plant community plasticity to changing resources will have homeostatic microbial communities, with less microbial resource cost, because plants reduce variance in resource stoichiometry. Using long-term nutrient additions in two ecosystems with differing plant response, we fail to support our hypothesis because although homeostasis appears stronger in the system with stronger plant response, microbial mechanisms were also stronger. However, our conclusions were undermined by high heterogeneity in resources, which may be common in ecosystem-level studies, and methodological assumptions may be exacerbated by shifting plant communities. We propose our study as a starting point for further ecosystem-scale investigations, with higher replication to address microbial and soil variability, and improved insight into microbial assimilable resources.

Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed.

Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity-ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities.

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1-315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species' populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales.

Shrub encroachment in Arctic tundra: Betula nana effects on above- and belowground litter decomposition.

Rapid arctic vegetation change as a result of global warming includes an increase in the cover and biomass of deciduous shrubs. Increases in shrub abundance will result in a proportional increase of shrub litter in the litter community, potentially affecting carbon turnover rates in arctic ecosystems. We investigated the effects of leaf and root litter of a deciduous shrub, Betula nana, on decomposition, by examining species-specific decomposition patterns, as well as effects of Betula litter on the decomposition of other species. We conducted a 2-yr decomposition experiment in moist acidic tundra in northern Alaska, where we decomposed three tundra species (Vaccinium vitis-idaea, Rhododendron palustre, and Eriophorum vaginatum) alone and in combination with Betula litter. Decomposition patterns for leaf and root litter were determined using three different measures of decomposition (mass loss, respiration, extracellular enzyme activity). We report faster decomposition of Betula leaf litter compared to other species, with support for species differences coming from all three measures of decomposition. Mixing effects were less consistent among the measures, with negative mixing effects shown only for mass loss. In contrast, there were few species differences or mixing effects for root decomposition. Overall, we attribute longer-term litter mass loss patterns to patterns created by early decomposition processes in the first winter. We note numerous differences for species patterns between leaf and root decomposition, indicating that conclusions from leaf litter experiments should not be extrapolated to below-ground decomposition. The high decomposition rates of Betula leaf litter aboveground, and relatively similar decomposition rates of multiple species below, suggest a potential for increases in turnover in the fast-decomposing carbon pool of leaves and fine roots as the dominance of deciduous shrubs in the Arctic increases, but this outcome may be tempered by negative litter mixing effects during the early stages of encroachment.

Plant identity influences decomposition through more than one mechanism.

Plant litter decomposition is a critical ecosystem process representing a major pathway for carbon flux, but little is known about how it is affected by changes in plant composition and diversity. Single plant functional groups (graminoids, legumes, non-leguminous forbs) were removed from a grassland in northern Canada to examine the impacts of functional group identity on decomposition. Removals were conducted within two different environmental contexts (fertilization and fungicide application) to examine the context-dependency of these identity effects. We examined two different mechanisms by which the loss of plant functional groups may impact decomposition: effects of the living plant community on the decomposition microenvironment, and changes in the species composition of the decomposing litter, as well as the interaction between these mechanisms. We show that the identity of the plant functional group removed affects decomposition through both mechanisms. Removal of both graminoids and forbs slowed decomposition through changes in the decomposition microenvironment. We found non-additive effects of litter mixing, with both the direction and identity of the functional group responsible depending on year; in 2004 graminoids positively influenced decomposition whereas in 2006 forbs negatively influenced decomposition rate. Although these two mechanisms act independently, their effects may be additive if both mechanisms are considered simultaneously. It is essential to understand the variety of mechanisms through which even a single ecosystem property is affected if we are to predict the future consequences of biodiversity loss.