Do tobacco 21 laws work?

Tobacco 21 (T-21) laws raise the minimum legal purchasing age for all tobacco products to 21. This study is the first to examine the impact of statewide T21 laws on teenage and young adult cigarette and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use. Using survey data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that statewide adoption of a T-21 law is associated with a 2-to-4 percentage-point decline in smoking participation among 18-to-20-year-olds. Supplemental analyses using the State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) show that frequent e-cigarette use among 18-year-olds also fell following the adoption of T21 laws, though this effect was partially because teens turned to informal social sources to obtain e-cigarettes (i.e., borrowing or bumming). Finally, we find that T-21 laws generate spillover effects, including (2) reductions in cigarette use among 16-to-17-year-olds, a group that relies heavily on informal social markets in high school, and (2) reductions in marijuana use and days of alcohol use among some teens.

Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot.

This study is the first to explore the impact of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot on risk avoidance behavior and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc., and an event-study approach, we document a substantial increase on January 6 in non-resident smartphone pings at the sites of the protest: the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the US Capitol Building. Then, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol riot led to an increase in stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, consistent with risk avoidance behavior and post-riot policies designed to limit large in-person gatherings. Finally, while we find no evidence that the Capitol riot substantially increased the spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia, we do find that counties with the highest inflows of out-of-town protesters experienced a 0.004 to 0.010 increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth during the month following the event. These findings are exacerbated in counties without COVID-19 mitigation policies in place. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-022-00914-0.

Risk avoidance, offsetting community effects, and COVID-19: Evidence from an indoor political rally.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) deem large indoor gatherings without social distancing the "highest risk" activity for COVID-19 contagion. On June 20, 2020, President Donald J. Trump held his first mass campaign rally following the US coronavirus outbreak at the indoor Bank of Oklahoma arena. In the weeks following the event, numerous high-profile national news outlets reported that the Trump rally was "more than likely" the cause of a coronavirus surge in Tulsa County based on time series data. This study is the first to rigorously explore the impacts of this event on social distancing and COVID-19 spread. First, using data from SafeGraph Inc, we show that while non-resident visits to census block groups hosting the Trump event grew by approximately 25 percent, there was no decline in net stay-at-home behavior in Tulsa County, reflecting important offsetting behavioral effects. Then, using data on COVID-19 cases from the CDC and a synthetic control design, we find little evidence that COVID-19 grew more rapidly in Tulsa County, its border counties, or in the state of Oklahoma than each's estimated counterfactual during the five-week post-treatment period we observe. Difference-in-differences estimates further provide no evidence that COVID-19 rates grew faster in counties that drew relatively larger shares of residents to the event. We conclude that offsetting risk-related behavioral responses to the rally-including voluntary closures of restaurants and bars in downtown Tulsa, increases in stay-at-home behavior, displacement of usual activities of weekend inflows, and smaller-than-expected crowd attendance-may be important mechanisms. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11166-021-09359-4.

The contagion externality of a superspreading event: The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally and COVID-19.

Large in-person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified as the "highest risk" for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). From August 7-16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without mask-wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data, we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay-at-home behavior among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that the COVID-19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a difference-in-differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4-12.5% increase in COVID-19 cases relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID-19 health costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.