Long-term, climate-driven phenological shift in a tropical large carnivore.

Understanding the degree to which animals are shifting their phenology to track optimal conditions as the climate changes is essential to predicting ecological responses to global change. Species at low latitudes or high trophic levels are theoretically expected to exhibit weaker phenological responses than other species, but limited research on tropical systems or on top predators impedes insight into the contexts in which these predictions are upheld. Moreover, a lack of phenological studies on top predators limits understanding of how climate change impacts propagate through entire ecosystems. Using a 30-y dataset on endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), we examined changes in reproductive phenology and temperatures during birthing and denning over time, as well as potential fitness consequences of these changes. We hypothesized that their phenology would shift to track a stable thermal range over time. Data from 60 packs and 141 unique pack-years revealed that wild dogs have delayed parturition by 7 days per decade on average in response to long-term warming. This shift has led to temperatures on birthing dates remaining relatively stable but, contrary to expectation, has led to increased temperatures during denning periods. Increased denning temperatures were associated with reduced reproductive success, suggesting that a continued phenological shift in the species may become maladaptive. Such results indicate that climate-driven shifts could be more widespread in upper trophic levels than previously appreciated, and they extend theoretical understanding of the species traits and environmental contexts in which large phenological shifts can be expected to occur as the climate changes.

Locomotion dynamics of hunting in wild cheetahs.

Although the cheetah is recognised as the fastest land animal, little is known about other aspects of its notable athleticism, particularly when hunting in the wild. Here we describe and use a new tracking collar of our own design, containing a combination of Global Positioning System (GPS) and inertial measurement units, to capture the locomotor dynamics and outcome of 367 predominantly hunting runs of five wild cheetahs in Botswana. A remarkable top speed of 25.9 m s(-1) (58 m.p.h. or 93 km h(-1)) was recorded, but most cheetah hunts involved only moderate speeds. We recorded some of the highest measured values for lateral and forward acceleration, deceleration and body-mass-specific power for any terrestrial mammal. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed locomotor information on the hunting dynamics of a large cursorial predator in its natural habitat.

Conserving large carnivores: dollars and fence.

Conservationists often advocate for landscape approaches to wildlife management while others argue for physical separation between protected species and human communities, but direct empirical comparisons of these alternatives are scarce. We relate African lion population densities and population trends to contrasting management practices across 42 sites in 11 countries. Lion populations in fenced reserves are significantly closer to their estimated carrying capacities than unfenced populations. Whereas fenced reserves can maintain lions at 80% of their potential densities on annual management budgets of $500 km(-2) , unfenced populations require budgets in excess of $2000 km(-2) to attain half their potential densities. Lions in fenced reserves are primarily limited by density dependence, but lions in unfenced reserves are highly sensitive to human population densities in surrounding communities, and unfenced populations are frequently subjected to density-independent factors. Nearly half the unfenced lion populations may decline to near extinction over the next 20-40 years.

Multi-host pathogens and carnivore management in southern Africa.

A retrospective serosurvey of multi-host feline and canine viruses among carnivore species in southern Africa (n=1018) identified widespread pathogen exposure even in remote protected areas. In contrast to mortality experienced in East African predators, canine distemper virus (CDV) infection among African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Botswana was not associated with identifiable change in pup survivorship or disease related mortality of adults. A disease outbreak of unknown aetiology occurred in the same population over 4 weeks in 1996. Outbreak boundaries coincided with ecotones, not the spatial distribution of contiguous packs, highlighting the potential importance of landscape heterogeneities in these processes. Direct management of pathogens in domestic animal reservoirs is complicated by the apparent complexity of pathogen maintenance and transmission in these large systems. Conservation effort should be focused at securing large metapopulations able to compensate for expected episodic generalist pathogen invasion and attention directed to addressing underlying causes of population depression such as habitat loss and wildlife conflict.

Patterns of population subdivision, gene flow and genetic variability in the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus).

African wild dogs are large, highly mobile carnivores that are known to disperse over considerable distances and are rare throughout much of their geographical range. Consequently, genetic variation within and differentiation between geographically separated populations is predicted to be minimal. We determined the genetic diversity of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and microsatellite loci in seven populations of African wild dogs. Analysis of mtDNA nucleotide diversity suggests that, historically, wild dog populations have been small relative to other large carnivores. However, population declines due to recent habitat loss have not caused a dramatic reduction in genetic diversity. We found one historical and eight recent mtDNA genotypes in 280 individuals that defined two highly divergent clades. In contrast to a previous, more limited, mtDNA analysis, sequences from these clades are not geographically restricted to eastern or southern African populations. Rather, we found a large admixture zone spanning populations from Botswana, Zimbabwe and south-eastern Tanzania. Mitochondrial and microsatellite differentiation between populations was significant and unique mtDNA genotypes and alleles characterized the populations. However, gene flow estimates (Nm) based on microsatellite data were generally greater than one migrant per generation. In contrast, gene flow estimates based on the mtDNA control region were lower than expected given differences in the mode of inheritance of mitochondrial and nuclear markers which suggests a male bias in long-distance dispersal.

African horse sickness and African carnivores.

African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease that affects equids, and is principally transmitted by Culicoides spp. that are biological vectors of AHS viruses (AHSV). The repeated spread of AHSV from sub-Saharan Africa to the Middle East, northern Africa and the Iberian peninsula indicate that a better understanding of AHS epizootiology is needed. African horse sickness has long been known to infect and cause mortality among domestic dogs that ingest virus contaminated meat, but it is uncertain what role carnivores play in transmission of the virus. We present evidence of widespread natural AHS infection among a diversity of African carnivore species. We hypothesize that such infection resulted from ingestion of meat and organs from AHS-infected prey species. The effect of AHS on the carnivores is unknown, as is their role in the maintenance cycle of the disease.