Environmental trade-offs of direct air capture technologies in climate change mitigation toward 2100.

Direct air capture (DAC) is critical for achieving stringent climate targets, yet the environmental implications of its large-scale deployment have not been evaluated in this context. Performing a prospective life cycle assessment for two promising technologies in a series of climate change mitigation scenarios, we find that electricity sector decarbonization and DAC technology improvements are both indispensable to avoid environmental problem-shifting. Decarbonizing the electricity sector improves the sequestration efficiency, but also increases the terrestrial ecotoxicity and metal depletion levels per tonne of CO2 sequestered via DAC. These increases can be reduced by improvements in DAC material and energy use efficiencies. DAC exhibits regional environmental impact variations, highlighting the importance of smart siting related to energy system planning and integration. DAC deployment aids the achievement of long-term climate targets, its environmental and climate performance however depend on sectoral mitigation actions, and thus should not suggest a relaxation of sectoral decarbonization targets.

Ambient weathering of magnesium oxide for CO2 removal from air.

To avoid dangerous climate change, new technologies must remove billions of tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere every year by mid-century. Here we detail a land-based enhanced weathering cycle utilizing magnesite (MgCO3) feedstock to repeatedly capture CO2 from the atmosphere. In this process, MgCO3 is calcined, producing caustic magnesia (MgO) and high-purity CO2. This MgO is spread over land to carbonate for a year by reacting with atmospheric CO2. The carbonate minerals are then recollected and re-calcined. The reproduced MgO is spread over land to carbonate again. We show this process could cost approximately $46-159 tCO2-1 net removed from the atmosphere, considering grid and solar electricity without post-processing costs. This technology may achieve lower costs than projections for more extensively engineered Direct Air Capture methods. It has the scalable potential to remove at least 2-3 GtCO2 year-1, and may make a meaningful contribution to mitigating climate change.

Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture and Sequestration Coupled to Low-Carbon Thermal Energy in the United States.

Negative emissions technologies will play an important role in preventing 2 °C warming by 2100. The next decade is critical for technological innovation and deployment to meet mid-century carbon removal goals of 10-20 GtCO2/yr. Direct air capture (DAC) is positioned to play a critical role in carbon removal, yet remains under paced in deployment efforts, mainly because of high costs. This study outlines a roadmap for DAC cost reductions through the exploitation of low-temperature heat, recent U.S. policy drivers, and logical, regional end-use opportunities in the United States. Specifically, two scenarios are identified that allow for the production of compressed high-purity CO2 for costs ≤$300/tCO2, net delivered with an opportunity to scale to 19 MtCO2/yr. These scenarios use thermal energy from geothermal and nuclear power plants to produce steam and transport the purified CO2 via trucks to the nearest opportunity for direct use or subsurface permanent storage. Although some utilization pathways result in the re-emission of CO2 and cannot be considered true carbon removal, they would provide economic incentive to deploying DAC plants at scale by mid-century. In addition, the federal tax credit 45Q was applied for qualifying facilities (i.e., producing ≥100 ktCO2/yr).

Cost Analysis of Carbon Capture and Sequestration of Process Emissions from the U.S. Industrial Sector.

The industrial sector represents roughly 22% of U.S. emissions. Unlike emissions from fossil-fueled power plants, the carbon footprint of the industrial sector represents a complex mixture of stationary combustion and process emissions produced as a reaction byproduct of cement, iron and steel, glass, and oil production. This study quantifies the potential opportunities for low-cost carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenarios with process emissions from the U.S. industrial sector by analyzing the variabilities in point-source capture and geographic proximity to relevant sinks, specifically enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and geologic sequestration opportunities. Using a technology-agnostic cost model developed from mature CO2 capture technologies, costs of CCS are calculated for each of the 656 facilities considered, with application of the U.S. federal tax credit 45Q to qualifying facilities. Capture of these targeted industrial process emission streams may lead to the avoidance of roughly 195 MtCO2/yr (188 MtCO2/yr qualifying for 45Q). A total of 123 facilities have the potential to avoid roughly 68.5 MtCO2/yr at costs below $40/tCO2 delivered. This could be competitive for using CO2 for EOR depending on the price of oil. At regional CO2 collection hubs, emissions of 40 MtCO2/yr can be avoided within 100 miles of the existing Louisiana-Mississippi and Texas-New Mexico pipelines.

Cost Analysis of Carbon Capture and Sequestration from U.S. Natural Gas-Fired Power Plants.

Despite increasing efforts to decarbonize the power sector, the utilization of natural gas-fired power plants is anticipated to continue. This study models existing solvent-based carbon capture technologies on natural gas-fired power plants, using site-specific emissions and regionally defined cost parameters to calculate the cost of CO2 avoided for two scenarios: delivery to and injection within reliable sequestration sites, and delivery and injection for the purpose of CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Despite the application of credits from the existing federal tax code 45Q, a minimum incentive gap of roughly $38/tCO2 remains for the geologic sequestration of CO2 and $56/tCO2 for CO2-EOR (before consideration of revenue generated from delivered CO2 contracts). At full escalation of 45Q, delivered CO2 costs from this sector for geologic sequestration could reach as low as $22/tCO2. However, given the capital investment required in the near-term, it would be beneficial if the credit provided the greatest economic benefit early on and decreasing over time as deployment continues to ramp up. Additionally, due to the high qualifying limit of 45Q for the power sector, e.g., 500 ktCO2/yr, the tax credit incentivizes the capture of roughly 397 MtCO2/yr at a 90% capture efficiency or 75% of the emissions in this sector, with missed opportunities equating to roughly 118 MtCO2. Advancing the scale of carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) will require both technological advances in the capture technology, cost reductions through the leveraging of existing infrastructure, and increased policy incentives in terms of cost along with the reduction of qualifying limits.