Tracing last millennium cycles of Río de la Plata Plume Water input into the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Recent studies established a strong connection between instrumental hydroclimatic changes in the Río de la Plata (RdlP) watershed and the influx of continental terrigenous material and productivity changes. This correspondence was further validated for the last millennium. Here, we identified centennial, multi-decadal, and interannual changes in diatom composition, as a proxy for La Plata Plume Water (PPW) discharge into the inner shelf. Core GeoB13813-4 diatom data were revisited, and grouped into freshwater, marine, and brackish categories for multivariate, timeseries, and correlation analyses. Such record exhibits a noteworthy resemblance to paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic variations throughout the past millennium. A Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) on the dominant taxa, and Axis-1 revealed a salinity gradient over the past millennium. DCA1-scores exhibited significant correlation with reconstructions of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the same period. By plotting DCA1-scores, we inferred time intervals with varying levels of PPW influence. During ∼936-1500 CE, the PPW influence was weak, as the record was dominated by marine taxa, indicating lateral transport from the Brazilian upwelled water and a stronger influence of the Subtropical Shelf Water. After 1500 CE, a well-developed plume was inferred, with the highest influence occurring after 1800 CE, as evidenced by an increased presence of freshwater/brackish taxa. This increased PPW influence after 1500 CE can be attributed to the onset of more humid conditions and associated increased river discharge, particularly under El Niño conditions, with further ENSO intensification after 1800 CE. We identified significant centennial (250 years) and multidecadal cycles (25-50 years) in diatom community composition. These cycles are related to solar forcing, PDO, and AMO. During the 20th Century, cycles of 2 to 7 years were associated with interannual ENSO variability, while 40-year cycles were linked to AMO and PDO variability.

Last glacial hydroclimate variability in the Yucatán Peninsula not just driven by ITCZ shifts.

We reconstructed hydroclimate variability in the Yucatán Peninsula (YP) based on stalagmite oxygen and carbon isotope records from a well-studied cave system located in the northeastern YP, a region strongly influenced by Caribbean climate dynamics. The new stalagmite isotopic records span the time interval between 43 and 26.6 ka BP, extending a previously published record from the same cave system covering the interval between 26.5 and 23.2 ka BP. Stalagmite stable isotope records show dominant decadal and multidecadal variability, and weaker variability on millennial timescales. These records suggest significant precipitation declines in the broader Caribbean region during Heinrich events 4 and 3 of ice-rafted discharge into the North Atlantic, in agreement with the antiphase pattern of precipitation variability across the equator suggested by previous studies. On millennial timescales, the stalagmite isotope records do not show the distinctive saw-tooth pattern of climate variability observed in Greenland during Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, but a pattern similar to North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We propose that shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), per se, are not the dominant driver of last glacial hydroclimate variability in the YP on millennial timescales but instead that North Atlantic SSTs played a dominant role. Our results support a negative climate feedback mechanism whereby large low latitude precipitation deficits resulting from AMOC slowdown would lead to elevated salinity in the Caribbean and ultimately help reactivate AMOC and Caribbean precipitation. However, because of the unique drivers of future climate in the region, predicted twenty-first century YP precipitation reductions are unlikely to be modulated by this negative feedback mechanism.

Plio-Pleistocene deep-sea ventilation in the eastern Pacific and potential linkages with Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Antarctic bottom water (AABW) production is a key factor governing global ocean circulation, and the present disintegration of the Antarctic Ice Sheet slows it. However, its long-term variability has not been well documented. On the basis of high-resolution chemical scanning of a well-dated marine ferromanganese nodule from the eastern Pacific, we derive a record of abyssal ventilation spanning the past 4.7 million years and evaluate its linkage to AABW formation over this period. We find that abyssal ventilation was relatively weak in the early Pliocene and persistently intensified from 3.4 million years ago onward. Seven episodes of markedly reduced ocean ventilation indicative of AABW formation collapse are identified since the late Pliocene, which were accompanied by key stages of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. We suggest that the interpolar climate synchronization within these inferred seven collapse events may have intensified global glaciation by inducing poleward moisture transport in the Northern Hemisphere.

Dynamic wavelet correlation analysis for multivariate climate time series.

The wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) is introduced for the first time in the study of climate dynamics inferred from multivariate climate time series. To exemplify the use of WLMC with real climate data, we analyse Last Millennium (LM) relationships among several large-scale reconstructed climate variables characterizing North Atlantic: i.e. sea surface temperatures (SST) from the tropical cyclone main developmental region (MDR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and tropical cyclone counts (TC). We examine the former three large-scale variables because they are known to influence North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and because their underlying drivers are still under investigation. WLMC results obtained for these multivariate climate time series suggest that: (1) MDRSST and AMO show the highest correlation with each other and with respect to the TC record over the last millennium, and: (2) MDRSST is the dominant climate variable that explains TC temporal variability. WLMC results confirm that this method is able to capture the most fundamental information contained in multivariate climate time series and is suitable to investigate correlation among climate time series in a multivariate context.

Synchronous precipitation reduction in the American Tropics associated with Heinrich 2.

During the last ice age temperature in the North Atlantic oscillated in cycles known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events. The magnitude of Caribbean hydroclimate change associated with D-O variability and particularly with stadial intervals, remains poorly constrained by paleoclimate records. We present a 3.3 thousand-year long stalagmite δ18O record from the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) that spans the interval between 26.5 and 23.2 thousand years before present. We estimate quantitative precipitation variability and the high resolution and dating accuracy of this record allow us to investigate how rainfall in the region responds to D-O events. Quantitative precipitation estimates are based on observed regional amount effect variability, last glacial paleotemperature records, and estimates of the last glacial oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation based on global circulation models (GCMs). The new precipitation record suggests significant low latitude hydrological responses to internal modes of climate variability and supports a role of Caribbean hydroclimate in helping Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation recovery during D-O events. Significant in-phase precipitation reduction across the equator in the tropical Americas associated with Heinrich event 2 is suggested by available speleothem oxygen isotope records.

Collapse of Classic Maya civilization related to modest reduction in precipitation.

The disintegration of the Classic Maya civilization in the Yucatán Peninsula and Central America was a complex process that occurred over an approximately 200-year interval and involved a catastrophic depopulation of the region. Although it is well established that the civilization collapse coincided with widespread episodes of drought, their nature and severity remain enigmatic. We present a quantitative analysis that offers a coherent interpretation of four of the most detailed paleoclimate records of the event. We conclude that the droughts occurring during the disintegration of the Maya civilization represented up to a 40% reduction in annual precipitation, probably due to a reduction in summer season tropical storm frequency and intensity.

The mid-Pleistocene transition in the tropical Pacific.

A sea surface temperature (SST) record based on planktonic foraminiferal magnesium/calcium ratios from a site in the western equatorial Pacific warm pool reveals that glacial-interglacial oscillations in SST shifted from a period of 41,000 to 100,000 years at the mid-Pleistocene transition, 950,000 years before the present. SST changes at both periodicities were synchronous with eastern Pacific cold-tongue SSTs but preceded changes in continental ice volume. The timing and nature of tropical Pacific SST changes over the mid-Pleistocene transition implicate a shift in the periodicity of radiative forcing by atmospheric carbon dioxide as the cause of the switch in climate periodicities at this time.