The Risk of Developing Disabling Crohn's Disease: Validation of a Clinical Prediction Rule to Improve Treatment Decision Making.

BACKGROUND: Crohn's disease (CD) is characterized by the development of complications over the course of the disease. It is crucial to identify predictive factors of disabling disease, in order to target patients for early intervention. We evaluated risk factors of disabling CD and developed a prognostic model. METHODS: In total, 511 CD patients were retrospectively analyzed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify demographic, clinical, and biological risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was developed in a subgroup of patients with noncomplicated CD (inflammatory pattern and no perianal disease). RESULTS: The rate of disabling CD within 5 years after diagnosis was 74.6%. Disabling disease was associated with gender, location of disease, requirement of steroids for the first flare, and perianal lesions. In the subgroup of patients (310) with noncomplicated CD, the rate of disabling CD was 80%. In the multivariate analysis age at onset <40 years (OR = 3.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.52-7.90), extensive disease (L3/L4) (OR = 2.67, 95% CI = 1.18-6.06), smoking habit (OR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.03-4.27), requirement of steroids at the first flare (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.09-4.45), and albumin (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.36-0.96) were associated with development of disabling disease. The developed predictive nomogram based on these factors presented good discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.723 (95% CI: 0.670-0.830). CONCLUSION: We identified predictive factors of disabling CD and developed an easy-to-use prognostic model that may be used in clinical practice to help identify patients at high risk and address treatment effectively.

Using Interpretable Machine Learning to Identify Baseline Predictive Factors of Remission and Drug Durability in Crohn's Disease Patients on Ustekinumab.

Ustekinumab has shown efficacy in Crohn's Disease (CD) patients. To identify patient profiles of those who benefit the most from this treatment would help to position this drug in the therapeutic paradigm of CD and generate hypotheses for future trials. The objective of this analysis was to determine whether baseline patient characteristics are predictive of remission and the drug durability of ustekinumab, and whether its positioning with respect to prior use of biologics has a significant effect after correcting for disease severity and phenotype at baseline using interpretable machine learning. Patients' data from SUSTAIN, a retrospective multicenter single-arm cohort study, were used. Disease phenotype, baseline laboratory data, and prior treatment characteristics were documented. Clinical remission was defined as the Harvey Bradshaw Index ≤ 4 and was tracked longitudinally. Drug durability was defined as the time until a patient discontinued treatment. A total of 439 participants from 60 centers were included and a total of 20 baseline covariates considered. Less exposure to previous biologics had a positive effect on remission, even after controlling for baseline disease severity using a non-linear, additive, multivariable model. Additionally, age, body mass index, and fecal calprotectin at baseline were found to be statistically significant as independent negative risk factors for both remission and drug survival, with further risk factors identified for remission.

Long-Term Real-World Effectiveness and Safety of Ustekinumab in Crohn's Disease Patients: The SUSTAIN Study.

BACKGROUND: Large real-world-evidence studies are required to confirm the durability of response, effectiveness, and safety of ustekinumab in Crohn's disease (CD) patients in real-world clinical practice. METHODS: A retrospective, multicentre study was conducted in Spain in patients with active CD who had received ≥1 intravenous dose of ustekinumab for ≥6 months. Primary outcome was ustekinumab retention rate; secondary outcomes were to identify predictive factors for drug retention, short-term remission (week 16), loss of response and predictive factors for short-term efficacy and loss of response, and ustekinumab safety. RESULTS: A total of 463 patients were included. Mean baseline Harvey-Bradshaw Index was 8.4. A total of 447 (96.5%) patients had received prior biologic therapy, 141 (30.5%) of whom had received ≥3 agents. In addition, 35.2% received concomitant immunosuppressants, and 47.1% had ≥1 abdominal surgery. At week 16, 56% had remission, 70% had response, and 26.1% required dose escalation or intensification; of these, 24.8% did not subsequently reduce dose. After a median follow-up of 15 months, 356 (77%) patients continued treatment. The incidence rate of ustekinumab discontinuation was 18% per patient-year of follow-up. Previous intestinal surgery and concomitant steroid treatment were associated with higher risk of ustekinumab discontinuation, while a maintenance schedule every 12 weeks had a lower risk; neither concomitant immunosuppressants nor the number of previous biologics were associated with ustekinumab discontinuation risk. Fifty adverse events were reported in 39 (8.4%) patients; 4 of them were severe (2 infections, 1 malignancy, and 1 fever). CONCLUSIONS: Ustekinumab is effective and safe as short- and long-term treatment in a refractory cohort of CD patients in real-world clinical practice.

This large retrospective study demonstrated the short- and long-term effectiveness and safety of ustekinumab in patients with Crohn's disease in real-world clinical practice, including those with refractory disease.

Tofacitinib in Ulcerative Colitis: Real-world Evidence From the ENEIDA Registry.

AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of tofacitinib in ulcerative colitis [UC] in real life. METHODS: Patients from the prospectively maintained ENEIDA registry and treated with tofacitinib due to active UC were included. Clinical activity and effectiveness were defined based on Partial Mayo Score [PMS]. Short-term response/remission was assessed at Weeks 4, 8, and 16. RESULTS: A total of 113 patients were included. They were exposed to tofacitinib for a median time of 44 weeks. Response and remission at Week 8 were 60% and 31%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, higher PMS at Week 4 (odds ratio [OR] = 0].2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0].1-0.4) was the only variable associated with lower likelihood of achieving remission at Week 8. Higher PMS at Week 4 [OR = 0.5; 95% CI = 0.3-0.7] and higher PMS at Week 8 [OR = 0.2; 95% CI = 0.1-0.5] were associated with lower probability of achieving remission at Week 16. A total of 45 patients [40%] discontinued tofacitinib over time. Higher PMS at Week 8 was the only factor associated with higher tofacitinib discontinuation [hazard ratio = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.3-1.6]. A total of 34 patients had remission at Week 8; of these, 65% had relapsed 52 weeks after achieving remission; the dose was increased to 10 mg/12 h in nine patients, and five of them reached remission again. Seventeen patients had adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Tofacitinib is effective and safe in UC patients in real practice, even in a highly refractory cohort. A relevant proportion of patients discontinue the drug over time, mainly due to primary failure.

Acute gastric dilatation in a patient with anorexia nervosa.

A 43-year-old female with a history of anorexia nervosa presented to our hospital with diffuse abdominal pain and distension after a binge eating episode. Vital signs and routine laboratory test results were unremarkable, except for a slightly elevated white blood cell count (14.5 x 109/l). Abdominal radiography and computed tomography (CT) revealed a massively dilated stomach, with a craniocaudal measurement of 37 cm.