Exchange of Pb from Indian to Atlantic Ocean is driven by Agulhas current and atmospheric Pb input from South Africa.

Using a spatiotemporal dataset of dissolved lead (dPb) from the subtropical oceans surrounding South Africa, this study quantifies the exchange of dPb between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Despite the absence of a major Pb source within the South Atlantic sector and the complete phase-out of leaded petroleum in Southern Africa, the ecologically important southeast Cape Basin shows an elevated surface dPb concentration (21-30 pmol kg-1). We estimated up to 90% of the measured dPb in surface waters of the Cape Basin was delivered from the Indian Ocean via the Agulhas Current (AC). Eddy dynamics and leakage at Agulhas retroflection result in an increased Pb flux from winter to summer, while a long-term (2008-2019) temporal change in dPb in the AC-derived water of Cape Basin was contemporaneous to a change in atmospheric Pb emissions from South Africa. The South African-origin atmospheric Pb, however, contributes first to the Agulhas waters in the West Indian Ocean, which is then transported to the South Atlantic, thereby regulating the dPb inventory of the Cape Basin. This indirect mechanism of Pb transfer emphasizes the importance of regulating Pb emissions from Southern Africa to protect rich fishing grounds associated with the Benguela marine ecosystem.

Oceanographic anomalies coinciding with humpback whale super-group occurrences in the Southern Benguela.

Seasonal feeding behaviour of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) has been observed in the coastal waters of the Southern Benguela where the species has been observed forming super-groups during the austral spring in recent years since 2011. Super-groups are unprecedented densely-packed aggregations of between 20 and 200 individuals in low-latitude waters and their occurrences indicate possible changes in feeding behaviour of the species. We accessed published data on super-groups occurrence in the study area in 2011, 2014 and 2015, and investigated oceanographic drivers that support prey availability in this region. We found that enhanced primary production is a necessary but not sufficient condition for super-groups to occur. Positive chlorophyll anomalies occurring one month prior to the super-group occurrences were identified, but only a concurrent significantly reduced water volume export from the region throughout October were conducive to the aggregations in the specific years. Hydrodynamic model results attributed the anomalous decreased volume export to the strength and orientation of the Goodhope Jet and associated eddy activity. The combination of random enhanced primary production typical of the region and emerging anomalous conditions of reduced water export in October since 2011 resulted in favourable food availability leading to the unique humpback whale aggregations. The novelty of this grouping behaviour is indicative of the lack of such oceanographic conditions in the past. Given the recency of the events, it is difficult to attribute this reduction in ocean transport to climatic regime shifts, and the origin should be likely investigated in the distant water mass interaction with the greater Agulhas system rather than in local intensifications of the upwelling conditions. A positive trend in the humpback whale population abundance points to the need to monitor the exposure of the species to the changing climate conditions.

Addressing dynamic uncertainty in the whale-watching industry under climate change and system shocks.

Whale-watching is a global tourism industry whose annual revenue exceeds two billion dollars. Australia is a key player in this industry, especially on the east and west coast where humpback whales migrate each year between their breeding and feeding grounds. However, the global whale-watching industry faces uncertainty from changing whale migration patterns, with whales progressively 'arriving' at the traditional whale-watching areas earlier than in previous years/decades. If the whale-watching industry cannot evolve with these changing dynamics then the arrival of the whales might be missed resulting in a potential loss of revenue. This social-ecological issue has suddenly been exacerbated by the disruption to tourism caused by the global pandemic COVID-19. In this study, we use a systems modelling framework, which combines qualitative and quantitative processes, to evaluate the social-ecological system behaviour of the whale-watching industry. We apply this systems approach to the Gold Coast, one of Australia's premier tourist destinations and home to a vibrant whale-watching industry. The outcome of this systems assessment is that the efficacy of the whale-watching industry is affected through determinants of both supply (ability to respond to changes in whale behaviour) and demand (attractiveness of whale-watching). Furthermore, the recovery time of all tourism after COVID-19 will take years if not decades.

Night and day: Shrinking and swelling of stems of diverse mangrove species growing along environmental gradients.

Tree stems swell and shrink daily, which is thought to reflect changes in the volume of water within stem tissues. We observed these daily patterns using automatic dendrometer bands in a diverse group of mangrove species over five mangrove forests across Australia and New Caledonia. We found that mangrove stems swelled during the day and shrank at night. Maximum swelling was highly correlated with daily maxima in air temperature. Variation in soil salinity and levels of tidal inundation did not influence the timing of stem swelling over all species. Medium-term increases in stem circumference were highly sensitive to rainfall. We defoliated trees to assess the role of foliar transpiration in stem swelling and shrinking. Defoliated trees showed maintenance of the pattern of daytime swelling, indicating that processes other than canopy transpiration influence the temporary stem diameter increments, which could include thermal swelling of stems. More research is required to understand the processes contributing to stem shrinking and swelling. Automatic Dendrometer Bands could provide a useful tool for monitoring the response of mangroves to extreme climatic events as they provide high-frequency, long-term, and large-scale information on tree water status.