Global marine biosecurity and ship lay-ups: intensifying effects of trade disruptions.

Recent global trade disruptions, due to blockage of the Suez Canal and cascading effects of COVID-19, have altered the movement patterns of commercial ships and may increase worldwide invasions of marine non-indigenous species. Organisms settle on the hulls and underwater surfaces of vessels and can accumulate rapidly, especially when vessels remain stationary during lay-ups and delays. Once present, organisms can persist on vessels for long-periods (months to years), with the potential to release propagules and seed invasions as ships visit ports across the global transportation network. Shipborne propagules also may be released in increasing numbers during extended vessel residence times at port or anchor. Thus, the large scale of shipping disruptions, impacting thousands of vessels and geographic locations and still on-going for over two years, may elevate invasion rates in coastal ecosystems in the absence of policy and management efforts to prevent this outcome. Concerted international and national biosecurity actions, mobilizing existing frameworks and tools with due diligence, are urgently needed to address a critical gap and abate the associated invasion risks.

Invasion of the body snatchers: the role of parasite introduction in host distribution and response to salinity in invaded estuaries.

In dynamic systems, organisms are faced with variable selective forces that may impose trade-offs. In estuaries, salinity is a strong driver of organismal diversity, while parasites shape species distributions and demography. We tested for trade-offs between low-salinity stress and parasitism in an invasive castrating parasite and its mud crab host along salinity gradients of two North Carolina rivers. We performed field surveys every six to eight weeks over 3 years to determine factors influencing parasite prevalence, host abundance, and associated taxa diversity. We also looked for signatures of low-salinity stress in the host by examining its response (time-to-right and gene expression) to salinity. We found salinity and temperature significantly affected parasite prevalence, with low-salinity sites (less than 10 practical salinity units (PSU)) lacking infection, and populations in moderate salinities at warmer temperatures reaching prevalence as high as 60%. Host abundance was negatively associated with parasite prevalence. Host gene expression was plastic to acclimation salinity, but several osmoregulatory and immune-related genes demonstrated source-dependent salinity response. We identified a genetic marker that was strongly associated with salinity against a backdrop of no neutral genetic structure, suggesting possible selection on standing variation. Our study illuminates how selective trade-offs in naturally dynamic systems may shape host evolutionary ecology.

Invasion history shapes host transcriptomic response to a body-snatching parasite.

By shuffling biogeographical distributions, biological invasions can both disrupt long-standing associations between hosts and parasites and establish new ones. This creates natural experiments with which to study the ecology and evolution of host-parasite interactions. In estuaries of the Gulf of Mexico, the white-fingered mud crab (Rhithropanopeus harrisii) is infected by a native parasitic barnacle, Loxothylacus panopaei (Rhizocephala), which manipulates host physiology and behaviour. In the 1960s, L. panopaei was introduced to the Chesapeake Bay and has since expanded along the southeastern Atlantic coast, while host populations in the northeast have so far been spared. We use this system to test the host's transcriptomic response to parasitic infection and investigate how this response varies with the parasite's invasion history, comparing populations representing (i) long-term sympatry between host and parasite, (ii) new associations where the parasite has invaded during the last 60 years and (iii) naïve hosts without prior exposure. A comparison of parasitized and control crabs revealed a core response, with widespread downregulation of transcripts involved in immunity and moulting. The transcriptional response differed between hosts from the parasite's native range and where it is absent, consistent with previous observations of increased susceptibility in populations lacking exposure to the parasite. Crabs from the parasite's introduced range, where prevalence is highest, displayed the most dissimilar response, possibly reflecting immune priming. These results provide molecular evidence for parasitic manipulation of host phenotype and the role of gene regulation in mediating host-parasite interactions.

Considering Commercial Vessels as Potential Vectors of Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease.

Stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD) is a troubling new disease that is spreading rapidly across the greater Caribbean region, but the etiological agent(s) and the mechanisms(s) of spread are both unknown. First detected off the coast of Miami, Florida, major ocean currents alone do not explain the pattern of spread, with outbreaks occurring across geographically disjunct and distant locations. This has raised concerns by researchers and resource managers that commercial vessels may contribute as vectors to spread of the disease. Despite existing regulatory and management strategies intended to limit coastal marine invasion risks, the efficacy of these measures is still unresolved for ship-borne microorganisms, and disease transport via ballast water and hull biofouling are under examination given the high ship traffic in the region. Here, to help inform the discussion of ships as possible vectors of SCTLD, we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge about ships and their potential to transfer organisms in the greater Caribbean, focusing in particular on ballast water, and outline a set of recommendations for future research.

Recent introductions reveal differential susceptibility to parasitism across an evolutionary mosaic.

Parasitism can represent a potent agent of selection, and introduced parasites have the potential to substantially alter their new hosts' ecology and evolution. While significant impacts have been reported for parasites that switch to new host species, the effects of macroparasite introduction into naïve populations of host species with which they have evolved remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate how the estuarine white-fingered mud crab (Rhithropanopeus harrisii) has adapted to parasitism by an introduced rhizocephalan parasite (Loxothylacus panopaei) that castrates its host. While the host crab is native to much of the East and Gulf Coasts of North America, its parasite is native only to the southern end of this range. Fifty years ago, the parasite invaded the mid-Atlantic, gradually expanding through previously naïve host populations. Thus, different populations of the same host species have experienced different degrees of historical interaction (and thus potential evolutionary response time) with the parasite: long term, short term, and naïve. In nine estuaries across this range, we examined whether and how parasite prevalence and host susceptibility to parasitism differs depending on the length of the host's history with the parasite. In field surveys, we found that the parasite was significantly more prevalent in its introduced range (i.e., short-term interaction) than in its native range (long-term interaction), a result that was also supported by a meta-analysis of prevalence data covering the 50 years since its introduction. In controlled laboratory experiments, host susceptibility to parasitism was significantly higher in naïve hosts than in hosts from the parasite's native range, suggesting that host resistance to parasitism is under selection. These results suggest that differences in host-parasite historical interaction can alter the consequences of parasite introductions in host populations. As anthropogenically driven range shifts continue, disruptions of host-parasite evolutionary relationships may become an increasingly important driver of ecological and evolutionary change.

Founder effects and species introductions: A host versus parasite perspective.

Species colonizations (both natural and anthropogenic) can be associated with genetic founder effects, where founding populations demonstrate significant genetic bottlenecks compared to native populations. Yet, many successfully established free-living species exhibit little reduction in genetic diversity-possibly due to multiple founding events and/or high propagule pressure during introductions. Less clear, however, is whether parasites may show differential signatures to their free-living  hosts. Parasites with indirect life cycles may particularly be more prone to founder effects (i.e., more genetically depauperate) because of inherently smaller founding populations and complex life cycles. We investigated this question in native (east coast) and introduced (west coast) North American populations of a host snail Tritia obsoleta (formerly Ilyanassa obsoleta, the eastern mudsnail) and four trematode parasite species that obligately infect it. We examined genetic diversity, gene flow, and population structure using two molecular markers (mitochondrial and nuclear) for the host and the parasites. In the host snail, we found little to no evidence of genetic founder effects, while the trematode parasites showed significantly lower genetic diversity in the introduced versus native ranges. Moreover, the parasite's final host influenced infection prevalence and genetic diversity: Trematode species that utilized fish as final hosts demonstrated lower parasite diversity and heightened founder effects in the introduced range than those trematodes using birds as final hosts. In addition, inter-regional gene flow was strongest for comparisons that included the putative historical source region (mid-Atlantic populations of the US east coast). Overall, our results broaden understanding of the role that colonization events (including recent anthropogenic introductions) have on genetic diversity in non-native organisms by also evaluating less studied groups like parasites.

Strong genetic structure in a widespread estuarine crab: A test of potential versus realized dispersal.

Aim: Genetic structure has proven difficult to predict for marine and estuarine species with multi-day pelagic larval durations, since many disperse far less than expected based on passive transport models. In such cases, the gap between potential and realized dispersal may result from larval behaviours that evolved to facilitate retention and settlement in favourable environments. Behaviour is predicted to play a particularly key role in structuring truly estuarine species, which often moderate their behaviour to remain within their natal estuaries. In such systems, this restricted dispersal may lead to high divergence, local adaptation and eventual speciation across their range. Here, we test whether a geographically widespread estuarine crab, known to have behaviour promoting larval retention, exhibits high population structure despite a 2- to 4-week larval duration. Location: Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of North America. Taxon: White-fingered mud crab, Rhithropanopeus harrisii. Methods: Population genomic analyses across nine estuaries from New Hampshire to Louisiana using 12,638 transcriptome-derived SNPs. Results: We found highly differentiated genetic signatures among all nine estuaries, separated by 200-5,000 km of coastline. Estimates of gene flow suggest that migration is low and largely symmetrical between sites. We also observed deep phylogenetic divides corresponding to major biogeographical breaks. Main conclusions: These results indicate substantial and longstanding constraints to dispersal in the species' native range, likely arising from the emergence of geological and oceanographic barriers and sustained by behaviour that promotes estuarine retention during larval development. This work supports the idea that larval behaviour promoting estuarine retention can be reflected in substantial genetic structure even in species with multi-week pelagic larval durations. Such behaviour-restricted dispersal has implications for predicting adaptation and spread in estuarine species, many of which have been introduced outside their native ranges.

A spherical falling film gas-liquid equilibrator for rapid and continuous measurements of CO2 and other trace gases.

Use of gas-liquid equilibrators to measure trace gases such as CO2, methane, and radon in water bodies is widespread. Such measurements are critical for understanding a variety of water quality issues such as acidification due to elevated CO2 or other processes related ecosystem metabolism and function. However, because gas-liquid equilibrators rely on generating sufficient surface area for gas exchange between liquid and gas phases, most traditional equilibrators pass water through small orifices or interstitial spaces that rapidly clog in highly productive or turbid waters, conditions that are common in estuaries, coastal bays, and riverine systems. Likewise, in cold temperatures, such equilibrators are subject to freezing. Both situations lead to failure and limit utility, especially for long term, continuous environmental monitoring. Here we describe and test a gas-liquid equilibrator that relies on a continuous falling film of water over a spherical surface to drive gas exchange. Our results demonstrate that this design is accurate in its ability to equilibrate fully to aqueous CO2 concentrations, is functional across a wide range of gas concentrations, and has a response time that is comparable with other equilibrator designs. Because this equilibrator uses free flowing, falling water to produce a surface for gas exchange, our field trials have shown it to be very resistant to clogging and freezing, and therefore well suited to long term deployment in highly productive waters like estuaries where CO2 concentrations fluctuate hourly, daily, and seasonally. When generated across a spherical surface, the falling film is not adversely affected by tilting off vertical, conditions that are common on a ship, small vessel, or buoy.

Evaluating the combined effects of ballast water management and trade dynamics on transfers of marine organisms by ships.

Global trade by merchant ships is a leading mechanism for the unintentional transfer of marine organisms, including non-indigenous species, to bays and estuaries worldwide. To reduce the likelihood of new invasions, ships are increasingly being required to manage their ballast water (BW) prior to discharge in coastal waters. In the United States, most overseas arrivals have been required to manage BW discharge since 2004, primarily through ballast water exchange (BWE), which flushes out ballast tanks in the open ocean (>200 miles from shore). Studies have found BWE to generally reduce the abundance of organisms, and the amount of water exchanged has been estimated at 96-100%. Despite its widespread use, the overall effect of this management strategy on net propagule supply through time has not been explored. Here, temporal changes in zooplankton concentrations and the volume of BW discharged in Chesapeake Bay, U.S. were evaluated, comparing pre-management era and post-management era time periods. Chesapeake Bay is a large port system that receives extensive BW discharge, especially from bulk cargo vessels (bulkers) that export coal overseas. For bulkers arriving from overseas, mean zooplankton concentrations of total and coastal indicator taxa in BW did not decline between pre- (1993-2000) and post management (2012-2013) eras, when controlling for season and sampling method. Moreover, bulkers discharged 21 million tonnes (82% of total for Chesapeake Bay) of overseas BW in 2013, representing a 374% increase in volume when compared to 2005. The combination of BW discharge volume and zooplankton concentration data indicates that (a) net propagule supply by bulkers has increased since BWE began in Chesapeake Bay; and (b) changes in vessel behaviour and trade have contributed strongly to this outcome. Specifically, the coal-driven increase in BW discharge volume from 2005-2013, concurrent with the onset of BWE regulations, worked to counteract intended results from BW management. A long-term analysis of bulker arrivals (1994-2013) reveals a 20-year minimum in arrival numbers in 2000, just when the implementation of BWE began. This study underscores the need to consider shifts in trade patterns, in order to advance and evaluate effective management strategies for biological invasions.

Potential effects of LNG trade shift on transfer of ballast water and biota by ships.

As the US natural gas surplus grows, so does the prospect of establishing new trade partnerships with buyers abroad, a process that has major consequences for global ship movement and ballast water delivery. Since US annual imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) peaked in 2004-2007, the country is rapidly transitioning from net importer to net exporter of LNG. Combining multiple datasets, we estimated changes in the associated flux of ships' ballast water to the US during 2015-2040, using existing scenarios for projected exports of domestic LNG by ships. Our analysis of the current market (2015) scenario predicts an approximate 90-fold annual increase in LNG-related ballast water discharge to the US by 2040 (42millionm3), with the potential to be even greater under high oil prices. We also described changes in geographic connectivity related to trade direction. These findings highlight how 21st century global energy markets could dramatically alter opportunities for seaborne introductions and invasions by nonnative species.

Geographic variation in marine invasions among large estuaries: effects of ships and time.

Coastal regions exhibit strong geographic patterns of nonnative species richness. Most invasions in marine ecosystems are known from bays and estuaries, where ship-mediated transfers (on hulls or in ballasted materials) have been a dominant vector of species introductions. Conspicuous spatial differences in nonnative species richness exist among bays, but the quantitative relationship between invasion magnitude and shipping activity across sites is largely unexplored. Using data on marine invasions (for invertebrates and algae) and commercial shipping across 16 large bays in the United States, we estimated (1) geographic variation in nonnative species richness attributed to ships, controlling for effects of salinity and other vectors, (2) changes through time in geographic variation of these ship-mediated invasions, and (3) effects of commercial ship traffic and ballast water discharge magnitude on nonnative species richness. For all nonnative species together (regardless of vector, salinity, or time period), species richness differed among U.S. coasts, being significantly greater for Pacific Coast bays than Atlantic or Gulf Coast bays. This difference also existed when considering only species attributed to shipping (or ballast water), controlling for time and salinity. Variation in nonnative species richness among Pacific Coast bays was strongly affected by these same criteria. San Francisco Bay, California, had over 200 documented nonnative species, more than twice that reported for other bays, but many species were associated with other (non-shipping) vectors or the extensive low-salinity habitats (unavailable in some bays). When considering only ship- or ballast-mediated introductions in high-salinity waters, the rate of newly detected invasions in San Francisco Bay has converged increasingly through time on that for other Pacific Coast bays, appearing no different since 1982. Considering all 16 bays together, there was no relationship between either (1) number of ship arrivals (from foreign ports) and number of introductions attributed to ships since 1982 or (2) volume of foreign ballast water discharge and number of species attributed to ballast water since 1982. These shipping measures are likely poor proxies for propagule supply, although they are sometimes used as such, highlighting a fundamental gap in data needed to evaluate invasion dynamics and management strategies.

Per capita invasion probabilities: an empirical model to predict rates of invasion via ballast water.

Ballast water discharges are a major source of species introductions into marine and estuarine ecosystems. To mitigate the introduction of new invaders into these ecosystems, many agencies are proposing standards that establish upper concentration limits for organisms in ballast discharge. Ideally, ballast discharge standards will be biologically defensible and adequately protective of the marine environment. We propose a new technique, the per capita invasion probability (PCIP), for managers to quantitatively evaluate the relative risk of different concentration-based ballast water discharge standards. PCIP represents the likelihood that a single discharged organism will become established as a new nonindigenous species. This value is calculated by dividing the total number of ballast water invaders per year by the total number of organisms discharged from ballast. Analysis was done at the coast-wide scale for the Atlantic, Gulf, and Pacific coasts, as well as the Great Lakes, to reduce uncertainty due to secondary invasions between estuaries on a single coast. The PCIP metric is then used to predict the rate of new ballast-associated invasions given various regulatory scenarios. Depending upon the assumptions used in the risk analysis, this approach predicts that approximately one new species will invade every 10-100 years with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) discharge standard of < 10 organisms with body size > 50 microm per m3 of ballast. This approach resolves many of the limitations associated with other methods of establishing ecologically sound discharge standards, and it allows policy makers to use risk-based methodologies to establish biologically defensible discharge standards.

Counting at low concentrations: the statistical challenges of verifying ballast water discharge standards.

Discharge from the ballast tanks of ships is one of the primary vectors of nonindigenous species in marine environments. To mitigate this environmental and economic threat, international, national, and state entities are establishing regulations to limit the concentration of living organisms that may be discharged from the ballast tanks of ships. The proposed discharge standards have ranged from zero detectable organisms to < 10 organisms/ m3. If standard sampling methods are used, verifying whether ballast discharge complies with these stringent standards will be challenging due to the inherent stochasticity of sampling. Furthermore, at low concentrations, very large volumes of water must be sampled to find enough organisms to accurately estimate concentration. Despite these challenges, adequate sampling protocols comprise a critical aspect of establishing standards because they help define the actual risk level associated with a standard. A standard that appears very stringent may be effectively lax if it is paired with an inadequate sampling protocol. We describe some of the statistical issues associated with sampling at low concentrations to help regulators understand the uncertainties of sampling as well as to inform the development of sampling protocols that ensure discharge standards are adequately implemented.

Ocean acidification and the loss of phenolic substances in marine plants.

Rising atmospheric CO(2) often triggers the production of plant phenolics, including many that serve as herbivore deterrents, digestion reducers, antimicrobials, or ultraviolet sunscreens. Such responses are predicted by popular models of plant defense, especially resource availability models which link carbon availability to phenolic biosynthesis. CO(2) availability is also increasing in the oceans, where anthropogenic emissions cause ocean acidification, decreasing seawater pH and shifting the carbonate system towards further CO(2) enrichment. Such conditions tend to increase seagrass productivity but may also increase rates of grazing on these marine plants. Here we show that high CO(2) / low pH conditions of OA decrease, rather than increase, concentrations of phenolic protective substances in seagrasses and eurysaline marine plants. We observed a loss of simple and polymeric phenolics in the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa near a volcanic CO(2) vent on the Island of Vulcano, Italy, where pH values decreased from 8.1 to 7.3 and pCO(2) concentrations increased ten-fold. We observed similar responses in two estuarine species, Ruppia maritima and Potamogeton perfoliatus, in in situ Free-Ocean-Carbon-Enrichment experiments conducted in tributaries of the Chesapeake Bay, USA. These responses are strikingly different than those exhibited by terrestrial plants. The loss of phenolic substances may explain the higher-than-usual rates of grazing observed near undersea CO(2) vents and suggests that ocean acidification may alter coastal carbon fluxes by affecting rates of decomposition, grazing, and disease. Our observations temper recent predictions that seagrasses would necessarily be "winners" in a high CO(2) world.

Glacial history of the North Atlantic marine snail, Littorina saxatilis, inferred from distribution of mitochondrial DNA lineages.

The North Atlantic intertidal gastropod, Littorina saxatilis (Olivi, 1792), exhibits extreme morphological variation between and within geographic regions and has become a model for studies of local adaptation; yet a comprehensive analysis of the species' phylogeography is lacking. Here, we examine phylogeographic patterns of the species' populations in the North Atlantic and one remote Mediterranean population using sequence variation in a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene (607 bp). We found that, as opposed to many other rocky intertidal species, L. saxatilis has likely had a long and continuous history in the Northwest Atlantic, including survival during the last glacial maximum (LGM), possibly in two refugia. In the Northeast Atlantic, several areas likely harboured refugial populations that recolonized different parts of this region after glacial retreat, resulting in strong population structure. However, the outlying monomorphic Venetian population is likely a recent anthropogenic introduction from northern Europe and not a remnant of an earlier wider distribution in the Mediterranean Sea. Overall, our detailed phylogeography of L. saxatilis adds an important piece to the understanding of Pleistocene history in North Atlantic marine biota as well as being the first study to describe the species' evolutionary history in its natural range. The latter contribution is noteworthy because the snail has recently become an important model species for understanding evolutionary processes of speciation; thus our work provides integral information for such endeavours.

Enumerating sparse organisms in ships' ballast water: why counting to 10 is not so easy.

To reduce ballast water-borne aquatic invasions worldwide, the International Maritime Organization and United States Coast Guard have each proposed discharge standards specifying maximum concentrations of living biota that may be released in ships' ballast water (BW), but these regulations still lack guidance for standardized type approval and compliance testing of treatment systems. Verifying whether BW meets a discharge standard poses significant challenges. Properly treated BW will contain extremely sparse numbers of live organisms, and robust estimates of rare events require extensive sampling efforts. A balance of analytical rigor and practicality is essential to determine the volume of BW that can be reasonably sampled and processed, yet yield accurate live counts. We applied statistical modeling to a range of sample volumes, plankton concentrations, and regulatory scenarios (i.e., levels of type I and type II errors), and calculated the statistical power of each combination to detect noncompliant discharge concentrations. The model expressly addresses the roles of sampling error, BW volume, and burden of proof on the detection of noncompliant discharges in order to establish a rigorous lower limit of sampling volume. The potential effects of recovery errors (i.e., incomplete recovery and detection of live biota) in relation to sample volume are also discussed.

Establishment failure in biological invasions: a case history of Littorina littorea in California, USA.

BACKGROUND: The early stages of biological invasions are rarely observed, but can provide significant insight into the invasion process as well as the influence vectors have on invasion success or failure. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We characterized three newly discovered populations of an introduced gastropod, Littorina littorea (Linné, 1758), in California, USA, comparing them to potential source populations in native Europe and the North American East Coast, where the snail is also introduced. Demographic surveys were used to assess spatial distribution and sizes of the snail in San Francisco and Anaheim Bays, California. Mitochondrial DNA was sequenced and compared among these nascent populations, and various populations from the North American East Coast and Europe, to characterize the California populations and ascertain their likely source. Demographic and genetic data were considered together to deduce likely vectors for the California populations. We found that the three large California L. littorea populations contained only adult snails and had unexpectedly high genetic diversity rather than showing an extreme bottleneck as typically expected in recent introductions. Haplotype diversity in Californian populations was significantly reduced compared to European populations, but not compared to East Coast populations. Genetic analyses clearly suggested the East Coast as the source region for the California introductions. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: The California L. littorea populations were at an early, non-established phase of invasion with no evidence of recruitment. The live seafood trade is the most likely invasion vector for these populations, as it preferentially transports large numbers of adult L. littorea, matching the demographic structure of the introduced California L. littorea populations. Our results highlight continued operation of live seafood trade vectors and the influence of vectors on the demographic and genetic structure of the resulting populations, especially early stages of the invasion process.

Shellfish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries.

BACKGROUND: Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide by 36% during the past 200 years. One third of all anthropogenic CO(2) has been absorbed by the oceans, reducing pH by about 0.1 of a unit and significantly altering their carbonate chemistry. There is widespread concern that these changes are altering marine habitats severely, but little or no attention has been given to the biota of estuarine and coastal settings, ecosystems that are less pH buffered because of naturally reduced alkalinity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To address CO(2)-induced changes to estuarine calcification, veliger larvae of two oyster species, the Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica), and the Suminoe oyster (Crassostrea ariakensis) were grown in estuarine water under four pCO(2) regimes, 280, 380, 560 and 800 microatm, to simulate atmospheric conditions in the pre-industrial era, present, and projected future concentrations in 50 and 100 years respectively. CO(2) manipulations were made using an automated negative feedback control system that allowed continuous and precise control over the pCO(2) in experimental aquaria. Larval growth was measured using image analysis, and calcification was measured by chemical analysis of calcium in their shells. C. virginica experienced a 16% decrease in shell area and a 42% reduction in calcium content when pre-industrial and end of 21(st) century pCO(2) treatments were compared. C. ariakensis showed no change to either growth or calcification. Both species demonstrated net calcification and growth, even when aragonite was undersaturated, a result that runs counter to previous expectations for invertebrate larvae that produce aragonite shells. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that temperate estuarine and coastal ecosystems are vulnerable to the expected changes in water chemistry due to elevated atmospheric CO(2) and that biological responses to acidification, especially calcifying biota, will be species-specific and therefore much more variable and complex than reported previously.