Elevated atmospheric CO2 alters the multi-element stoichiometry of pollen-bearing oak flowers, with possible negative effects on bees.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 levels change the elemental composition in plants, altering their nutritional quality and affecting consumers and ecosystems. Ecological stoichiometry provides a framework for investigating how CO2-driven nutrient dilution in pollen affects bees by linking changes in pollen chemical element proportions to the nutritional needs of bees. We investigated the consequences of five years of Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) in a mature oak-dominated temperate forest on the elemental composition of English oak (Quercus robur) pollen. We measured the concentrations and proportions of 12 elements (C, N, P, S, K, Na, Ca, Mg, Cu, Zn, Fe, and Mn) in Q. robur pollen-bearing flowers collected from the Birmingham Institute for Forest Research (BIFoR) FACE facility. An elevated CO2 (eCO2) level of 150 ppm above ambient significantly reduced the S, K, and Fe levels and altered the multi-element ratio, with different elements behaving differently. This shift in pollen multi-element composition may have subsequent cascading effects on higher trophic levels. To assess the impact on bees, we calculated the stoichiometric mismatch (a measure of the discrepancy between consumer needs and food quality) for two bee species, Osmia bicornis (red mason bee) and Apis mellifera (honey bee), that consume oak pollen in nature. We observed stoichiometric mismatches for P and S, in pollen under eCO2, which could negatively affect bees. We highlight the need for a comprehensive understanding of the changes in pollen multi-element stoichiometry under eCO2, which leads to nutrient limitations under climate change with consequences for bees.

Local spatiotemporal dynamics of particulate matter and oak pollen measured by machine learning aided optical particle counters.

Conventional techniques for monitoring pollen currently have significant limitations in terms of labour, cost and the spatiotemporal resolution that can be achieved. Pollen monitoring networks across the world are generally sparse and are not able to fully represent the detailed characteristics of airborne pollen. There are few studies that observe concentrations on a local scale, and even fewer that do so in ecologically rich rural areas and close to emitting sources. Better understanding of these would be relevant to occupational risk assessments for public health, as well as ecology, biodiversity, and climate. We present a study using low-cost optical particle counters (OPCs) and the application of machine learning models to monitor particulate matter and pollen within a mature oak forest in the UK. We characterise the observed oak pollen concentrations, first during an OPC colocation period (6 days) for calibration purposes, then for a period (36 days) when the OPCs were distributed on an observational tower at different heights through the canopy. We assess the efficacy and usefulness of this method and discuss directions for future development, including the requirements for training data. The results show promise, with the derived pollen concentrations following the expected diurnal trends and interactions with meteorological variables. Quercus pollen concentrations appeared greatest when measured at the canopy height of the forest (20-30 m). Quercus pollen concentrations were lowest at the greatest measurement height that is above the canopy (40 m), which is congruent with previous studies of background pollen in urban environments. The attenuation of pollen concentrations as sources are depleted is also observed across the season and at different heights, with some evidence that the pollen concentrations persist later at the lowest level beneath the canopy (10 m) where catkins mature latest in the season compared to higher catkins.

Machine learning methods for low-cost pollen monitoring - Model optimisation and interpretability.

Pollen is a major issue globally, causing as much as 40 % of the population to suffer from hay fever and other allergic conditions. Current techniques for monitoring pollen are either laborious and slow, or expensive, thus alternative methods are needed to provide timely and more localised information on airborne pollen concentrations. We have demonstrated previously that low-cost Optical Particle Counter (OPC) sensors can be used to estimate pollen concentrations when machine learning methods are used to process the data and learn the relationships between OPC output data and conventionally measured pollen concentrations. This study demonstrates how methodical hyperparameter tuning can be employed to significantly improve model performance. We present the results of a range of models based on tuned hyperparameter configurations trained to predict Poaceae (Barnhart), Quercus (L.), Betula (L.), Pinus (L.) and total pollen concentrations. The results achieved here are a significant improvement on results we previously reported: the average R2 scores for the total pollen models have at least doubled compared to using previous parameter settings. Furthermore, we employ the explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) technique, SHAP, to interpret the models and understand how each of the input features (i.e. particle sizes) affect the estimated output concentration for each pollen type. In particular, we found that Quercus pollen has a strong positive correlation with particles of optical diameter 1.7-2.3 µm, which distinguishes it from other pollen types such as Poaceae and may suggest that type-specific subpollen particles are present in this size range. There is much further work to be done, especially in training and testing models on data obtained across different environments to evaluate the extent of generalisability. Nevertheless, this work demonstrates the potential this method can offer for low-cost monitoring of pollen and the valuable insight we can gain from what the model has learned.

Constructing a pollen proxy from low-cost Optical Particle Counter (OPC) data processed with Neural Networks and Random Forests.

Pollen allergies affect a significant proportion of the global population, and this is expected to worsen in years to come. There is demand for the development of automated pollen monitoring systems. Low-cost Optical Particle Counters (OPCs) measure particulate matter and have attractive advantages of real-time high time resolution data and affordable costs. This study asks whether low-cost OPC sensors can be used for meaningful monitoring of airborne pollen. We employ a variety of methods, including supervised machine learning techniques, to construct pollen proxies from hourly-average OPC data and evaluate their performance, holding out 40 % of observations to test the proxies. The most successful methods are supervised machine learning Neural Network (NN) and Random Forest (RF) methods, trained from pollen concentrations collected from a Hirst-type sampler. These perform significantly better than using a simple particle size-filtered proxy or a Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) source apportionment pollen proxy. Twelve NN and RF models were developed to construct a pollen proxy, each varying by model type, input features and target variable. The results show that such models can construct useful information on pollen from OPC data. The best metrics achieved (Spearman correlation coefficient = 0.85, coefficient of determination = 0.67) were for the NN model constructing a Poaceae (grass) pollen proxy, based on particle size information, temperature, and relative humidity. Ability to distinguish high pollen events was evaluated using F1 Scores, a score reflecting the fraction of true positives with respect to false positives and false negatives, with promising results (F1 ≤ 0.83). Model-constructed proxies demonstrated the ability to follow monthly and diurnal trends in pollen. We discuss the suitability of OPCs for monitoring pollen and offer advice for future progress. We demonstrate an attractive alternative for automated pollen monitoring that could provide valuable and timely information to the benefit of pollen allergy sufferers.