North-south discrepancy in the contributors to CB153 accumulation in the deep water of the Sea of Japan.

The deep-water environment and its ecosystem are becoming the ultimate sinks for Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs). A three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem-PCB coupled model was applied to the Sea of Japan (SoJ), where deep water is isolated from the surrounding oceans, to elucidate the accumulation processes of CB153 and assess the contributions of physical and biological processes to the accumulation. We suggest that the dissolved CB153 concentration formed a three-layer vertical structure in the SoJ: the highest concentration is in the intermediate layer (100-600 m), followed by those in the deep (600 m to the bottom) and surface layers (0-100 m). Different accumulation mechanisms in the northern and southern SoJ were discovered. The oceanic biological pump enhances the accumulation in the northern SoJ by taking CB153 out of the thermocline in summer and contributes 70 % to the accumulation in the intermediate layer; while the vertical advection contributes 70 % to the accumulation in the intermediate and deep layer in the southern SoJ.

Projection of August 2021 pumice dispersion from the Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba eruption in the western North Pacific.

Marine hazards often occur unexpectedly. Long-term (> few weeks) projections are sometimes needed to predict the potential route of drifting targets (e.g. pumice, oil, shipwreck) in order to prevent further disaster, yet reliable long-term forecast data may be unavailable. The present study examined the long-term projection of pumice dispersion originating from the 2021 submarine eruption of Fukutoku-Oka-no-Ba volcano, Japan, based on hindcast reanalysis of the past 28 years of wind and ocean currents using the particle tracking method. The ensemble distribution showed a wide dispersion, which was dominated by the ocean currents. By contrast, wind provided a relatively uniform transport. Apart from the prevailing wind, typhoons also play a role in affecting pumice dispersion. The multi-year simulation provides a general view of pumice dispersion accounting for different uncertainty, which could be used for deducing the potential dispersion under different wind and ocean conditions.

The Kuroshio Regulates the Air-Sea Exchange of PCBs in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.

Calculating accurate air-sea fluxes for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) is an essential condition for evaluating their transport in the atmosphere. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem-PCB coupled model was developed for the northwestern Pacific Ocean to assess the air-sea fluxes of four PCBs and examine the influences of ocean currents on the fluxes. The model revealed a fine structure in the air-sea flux that is sensitive to the Kuroshio, a western boundary current with a high surface speed. Intense downward and upward fluxes (-23.6 to 44.75 ng m-2 d-1 for ∑4PCBs) can be found in the Kuroshio region south of Japan and the Kuroshio Extension east of Japan, respectively. In strong (weak) current regions, it takes ∼4 and ∼1 days (1-3 and 3-12 days) for dissolved PCBs to reach an equilibrium in scenarios where only air-sea exchange or only ocean advection is considered, respectively. In strong current regions, the ocean advection has a shorter response time than the air-sea exchange, indicating that dissolved PCBs from upstream carried by strong current can easily change the downstream concentration by disrupting the equilibrium with original air-sea exchange and induce new air-sea fluxes there. Therefore, strong western boundary currents should be correctly considered in future atmospheric transport models for PCBs.

New clues on the Atlantic eels spawning behavior and area: the Mid-Atlantic Ridge hypothesis.

The Sargasso Sea has long been considered as the only spawning area for Atlantic eels, despite the absence of direct observations. The present study raises a novel scenario, deviating from Schmidt's dogma, begins with a review of historical and recent observations that were combined to build up a global theory on spawning ecology and migration behavior of Atlantic eels. From this, it is argued that a favorable spawning area could be located eastward of Sargasso Sea at the intersection between the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the oceanic fronts. Ocean circulation models combined with 3D particle-tracking method confirmed that spawning at this specific area would result in larval distribution fitting the field observation. This study explores the hypothesis that leptocephali are able to swim and orientate to reach their specific growth areas. It proposes a novel framework about spawning ecology, based on orientation, navigation and meeting cues of silver eels to the spawning area. Together this framework may serve as a stepping-stone for solving the long-lasting mystery of eel reproduction which first came out 2,400 years ago and promotes the understanding of oceanic migration and reproduction of marine organisms.

Role of climate variability in the potential predictability of tropical cyclone formation in tropical and subtropical western North Pacific Ocean.

The out of phase tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific associated with local low-level wind vorticity anomaly, driven by the remote central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling, is investigated based on the reanalysis and observational data in the period of 1979-2017. TC frequencies in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific appear to be connected to different remote heating/cooling sources and are linked to eastern and central Pacific warming/cooling, which are in turn related to canonical El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki, respectively. TCs formed in subtropics (SfTC) are generally found to be associated with a dipole in wind vorticity anomaly, which is driven by the tropical eastern Pacific warming/cooling. Tropically formed TCs (TfTC) are seen to be triggered by the single-core of wind vorticity anomaly locally associated with the warming/cooling of central and eastern Pacific. The predicted ENSOs and ENSO Modokis, therefore, provide a potential source of seasonal predictability for SfTC and TfTC frequencies.

Role of Kuroshio Current in fish resource variability off southwest Japan.

Western boundary currents in the subtropics play a pivotal role in transporting warm water from the tropics that contribute to development of highly diverse marine ecosystem in the coastal regions. As one of the western boundary currents in the North Pacific, the Kuroshio Current (hereafter the Kuroshio) exerts great influences on biological resource variability off southwest Japan, but few studies have examined physical processes that attribute the coastal fish resource variability to the basin-scale Kuroshio variability. Using the high-quality fish catch data and high-resolution ocean reanalysis results, this study identifies statistical links of interannual fish resource variability off Sukumo Bay, Shikoku island of Japan, to subsurface ocean temperature variability in the Kuroshio. The subsurface ocean temperature variability off the south of Sukumo Bay exhibits vertically coherent structure with sea-surface height variability, which originates from the westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves generated through surface wind anomalies in the Northwest Pacific. Although potential sources of the atmospheric variability remain unclarified, the remotely-induced oceanic Rossby waves contribute to fish resource variability off Sukumo Bay. These findings have potential applications to other coastal regions along the western boundary currents in the subtropics where the westward-propagating oceanic Rossby waves may contribute to coastal ocean temperature variability.

Influence of ocean circulation and the Kuroshio large meander on the 2018 Japanese eel recruitment season.

Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) recruitment to Japan was very low during the early 2017-2018 recruitment season when most glass eels are usually caught, but catches increased in the late recruitment season when recruitment usually decreases. Concurrently, the Kuroshio meander south of Japan had formed again after the previous event ended in 2005. The role of the large meander and ocean circulation features such as the North Equatorial Current (NEC) in the unusual 2017-2018 Japanese eel recruitment timing-pattern was investigated using a three-dimensional particle tracking model that simulated swimming behaviors of virtual larvae (v-larvae) in addition to their drift in ocean currents. Four recruitment seasons were selected for when the Kuroshio large meander was present (2004-2005, 2017-2018) or absent (2009-2010, 2015-2016), and when NEC was shifted north (2004-2005, 2015-2016) or south (2009-2010, 2017-2018). The simulated recruitment timing-patterns were similar to the actual recent-year recruitment, with no early recruitment period v-larvae arrival to southern Japan and increased late period recruitment occurring. Rather than being related to the presence of the Kuroshio large meander, the late arrival appeared to be caused by a southward shifted, weak North Equatorial Current near the spawning area, a longer Subtropical Countercurrent eddy region retention time, and a weak Kuroshio during the early migration and recruitment period of those years. In the late recruitment period, the Kuroshio was stronger than other selected years near the East China Sea and south of Japan and v-larvae were transported more rapidly. The Kuroshio large meander may influence local eel recruitment in Japan, and the recirculation formed by the large meander could potentially enhance recruitment to the Tokai region. Oriented (northwestward) swimming v-larvae were less affected by the large meander, and showed higher recruitment success than those using along-current swimming. Although the Kuroshio large meander did not seem to be responsible for the unusual recruitment pattern in 2018, how Japanese eel larvae and glass eels actually cross out of the Kuroshio and reach coastal waters in Japan remains to be explored.

Effect of larval swimming in the western North Pacific subtropical gyre on the recruitment success of the Japanese eel.

The possible effect of directional larval swimming on the recruitment success of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, was examined with a three-dimensional particle-tracking ocean circulation model using horizontal northwestward swimming and diel vertical migration (DVM). Four separate experiments included virtual larvae (v-larvae) movement from the spawning area over 290 days (total migration) and 160 days (stage A), from the STCC eddy region in 70 days (stage B), and from the origin of the Kuroshio in 60 days (stage C) to evaluate the effect of directional swimming and DVM compared to simple drifting. Passive or random swimming were not the most effective strategies for larvae dispersing from the spawning area because most v-larvae remained south of 20°N without entering the Kuroshio. Northwestward swimming resulted in wider dispersion and a better chance of successful recruitment, with v-larvae becoming widely distributed in the STCC eddy zone, arriving at the east coast of the Philippines (stage A), escaping the STCC eddy area and reaching the Kuroshio (stage B), and crossing the Kuroshio into the East China Sea shelf (stage C). DVM slightly shortened the migration period due to faster shallow layer ocean currents during nighttime. The NEC transported non-swimming v-larvae westward to the Kuroshio and occasionally northward into the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) area where eddies transported v-larvae westward into the Kuroshio, but less than with swimming. Directional swimming increased recruitment success, northwestward swimming was more effective than other directions, and a slower swimming speed was still better than no/random swimming in sensitivity tests. The present study demonstrated a first view of the possibility that Japanese eel larvae might be able to use a strategy of single-direction swimming to increase arrival at their recruitment areas.

Philippines-Taiwan Oscillations and its connection to tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific Ocean.

An atmospheric component of the Philippine-Taiwan Oscillations (PTOa) is used to examine its potential connection with tropical cyclone (TC) frequency in the western North Pacific in the period of 1979-2014. During positive PTOa years, more TCs are observed in the tropical western Pacific south of 18 °N where cyclonic wind anomaly appears. On the other hand, anti-cyclonic wind anomaly appears in the subtropics north of 18 °N and is associated with less TC formation there. The opposite wind vorticities in tropics/subtropics and associated variability in TC frequency reverse in negative PTOa phase. Besides, the negative contribution of ocean heat content suggests the relative importance of wind vorticity according to the oceanic cyclone genesis potential index. The PTOa provides a more direct explanation of the TC activity compared to other remotely linked phenomena at least for the past 36 years (1979-2014). Therefore, PTOa can potentially serve as a promising index for diagnosing or forecasting TC activity in the western North Pacific Ocean.

Residual effects of treated effluent diversion on a seaweed farm in a tidal strait using a multi-nested high-resolution 3-D circulation-dispersal model.

A high-resolution 3-D model was developed to assess the impact of a diversion outfall at the Tarumi Sewage Treatment Plant (TSTP) on an adjacent seaweed farm in Osaka Bay, Japan. The model was extensively validated to ensure a reasonable agreement with in situ observations. The western part of the farm is largely influenced by tidal currents, whereas the eastern area is mainly affected by subtidal residual currents that are primarily due to surface wind stress. The released effluent is transported by counterclockwise residual circulation formed off the TSTP. The model reveals that the diversion adequately suppresses the influence on the farm. While the instantaneous effluent concentration is diminished by about 50%, the effluent accumulated on the farm decreased from 2.83 × 104 m3 to 2.01 × 104 m3 due to the diversion, demonstrating an approximately 28% reduction of the effluent from the TSTP by the diversion outfall.

Potential impact of ocean circulation on the declining Japanese eel catches.

Recruitment of Japanese eels, Anguilla japonica, has declined in recent decades possibly due to both anthropogenic and ocean-atmosphere factors. The potential impact of ocean circulation on the decreasing Japanese eel catches in the western North Pacific was examined based on a three-dimensional particle-tracking method, in which virtual larvae (v-larvae) were programmed to swim horizontally and vertically, in addition to being transported by ocean currents after being released in their North Equatorial Current (NEC) spawning area. Transport patterns varied among years between 1993 and 2013, and dispersion of v-larvae towards East Asia decreased in the last two decades, especially for the western Taiwan and Japan regions. In recent years, instead of entering the Kuroshio and moving towards East Asia as in the 1990s', more v-larvae tended to enter the southern areas due to the weakening of the NEC and strengthening of subsurface southward flow near the spawning area. Changes in ocean circulation in the western Pacific appear to be caused by the weakening of subtropical and tropical wind stress curl in the past two decades. This suggests that decadal changes in ocean circulation have occurred that affect the larval migration success of the Japanese eel to their recruitment areas.

Physical and biological roles of mesoscale eddies in Japanese eel larvae dispersal in the western North Pacific Ocean.

The physical and biological roles of mesoscale eddies in Japanese eel larvae dispersal are investigated using a three-dimensional (3D) particle-tracking method, with a focus on the Subtropical Counter Current eddies of the western North Pacific Ocean. Virtual eel larvae (v-larvae) movements depends on the 3D ocean currents and active swimming behavior, including vertical swimming (diel vertical migration), horizontal directional swimming toward settlement habitat, and horizontal swimming toward available food. V-larvae are able to remain in eddies passively due to mesoscale eddy nonlinearity and/or actively due to attraction to rich food supplies. Thus, both physical trapping and biological attraction to food contribute to the retention of v-larvae in eddies. Physical trapping dominates the retention of v-larvae whose swimming speeds are slower than the eddy propagation speed, whereas biological food attraction prevails in the retention of v-larvae swimming faster than eddy propagation. Food availability differs between warm (anti-cyclonic) and cold (cyclonic) eddies, with the latter providing a richer food supply. Fish larvae that are retained for longer durations in cold eddies (shorter durations in warm eddies) are able to obtain more food and potentially grow faster, which enhances survival rates.

Oceanic dispersion of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 simulated by multiple oceanic general circulation models.

To understand the concentration and amount of Fukushima-derived Cs-137 in the ocean, this study simulated the oceanic dispersion of Cs-137 by atmospheric and oceanic dispersion simulations. The oceanic dispersion simulations were carried out with an oceanic dispersion model and multiple oceanic general circulation models. The Cs-137 concentrations were sensitive to ocean currents in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans. The mean Cs-137 concentrations of the multiple models relatively well agreed with the observed concentrations in the coastal and offshore oceans during the first few months after the Fukushima disaster, and in the open ocean during the first year after the disaster. The Cs-137 amounts were quantified in the coastal, offshore, and open oceans during the first year after the disaster. It was suggested that Cs-137 actively dispersed from the coastal and offshore oceans to the open ocean, and from the surface layer to the deeper layers in the North Pacific.

The dynamical impact of mesoscale eddies on migration of Japanese eel larvae.

In this study, we explore the dynamical role of mesoscale eddies on fish larvae migration using the example of Subtropical Counter Current eddies and the migration of Japanese eel larvae in the western North Pacific Ocean. An idealized experiment is conducted to isolate the effects of eddies, and use a three-dimensional particle-tracking method to simulate virtual eel larvae (v-larvae) migration, including both horizontal and vertical swimming behaviors. The impact of eddies strongly depends on the swimming speed of v-larvae relative to the eddy speed. Eddies accelerate the movement of v-larvae that swim slower than the propagation speed of the eddy, whereas faster-swimming v-larvae are dragged by eddies. A modified stream function that incorporates biological swimming ability explains the non-uniform trapping of v-larvae in mesoscale eddies. A high swimming speed and/or a small eddy rotation speed results in a weak trapping capacity. Simulations of v-larvae migration in realistic cases of eddy fields indicate that the abundance of eddies significantly affects the duration of larval migration, with the effects being largely dependent on the larvae swimming speed. We noted a negative relationship between the observed annual eel recruitment index in Taiwan and the eddy index subtropical countercurrent (STCC) region, which suggests a potentially important role of mesoscale eddies in eel larvae migration.

Simulating the Oceanic Migration of Silver Japanese Eels.

The oceanic migration of silver Japanese eels starts from their continental growth habitats in East Asia and ends at the spawning area near the West Mariana Ridge seamount chain. However, the actual migration routes remain unknown. In this study, we examined the possible oceanic migration routes and strategies of silver Japanese eels using a particle tracking method in which virtual eels (v-eels) were programmed to move vertically and horizontally in an ocean circulation model (Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2, JCOPE2). Four horizontal swimming strategies were tested: random heading, true navigation (readjusted heading), orientation toward the spawning area (fixed heading), and swimming against the Kuroshio. We found that all strategies, except random swimming, allowed v-eels swimming at 0.65 m s-1 to reach the spawning area within eight months after their departure from the south coast of Japan (end of the spawning season). The estimated minimum swimming speed required to reach the area spawning within eight months was 0.1 m s-1 for true navigation, 0.12 m s-1 for constant compass heading, and 0.35 m s-1 for swimming against the Kuroshio. The lowest swimming speed estimated from tracked Japanese eels at sea was 0.03 m.s-1, which would not allow them to reach the spawning area within eight months, through any of the tested orientation strategies. Our numerical experiments also showed that ocean circulation significantly affected the migration of Japanese v-eels. A strong Kuroshio could advect v-eels further eastward. In addition, western Pacific ocean currents accelerated the migration of navigating v-eels. The migration duration was shortened in years with a stronger southward flow, contributed by a stronger recirculation south of Japan, an enhanced subtropical gyre, or a higher southward Kuroshio velocity.

Impacts of Interannual Ocean Circulation Variability on Japanese Eel Larval Migration in the Western North Pacific Ocean.

The Japanese eel larvae hatch near the West Mariana Ridge seamount chain and travel through the North Equatorial Current (NEC), the Kuroshio, and the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) region during their shoreward migration toward East Asia. The interannual variability of circulation over the subtropical and tropical regions of the western North Pacific Ocean is affected by the Philippines-Taiwan Oscillation (PTO). This study examines the effect of the PTO on the Japanese eel larval migration routes using a three-dimensional (3D) particle tracking method, including vertical and horizontal swimming behavior. The 3D circulation and hydrography used for particle tracking are from the ocean circulation reanalysis produced by the Japan Coastal Ocean Predictability Experiment 2 (JCOPE2). Our results demonstrate that bifurcation of the NEC and the strength and spatial variation of the Kuroshio affect the distribution and migration of eel larvae. During the positive phase of PTO, more virtual eels ("v-eels") can enter the Kuroshio to reach the south coast of Japan and more v-eels reach the South China Sea through the Luzon Strait; the stronger and more offshore swing of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea leads to fewer eels entering the East China Sea and the onshore movement of the Kuroshio to the south of Japan brings the eels closer to the Japanese coast. Significant differences in eel migration routes and distributions regulated by ocean circulation in different PTO phases can also affect the otolith increment. The estimated otolith increment suggests that eel age tends to be underestimated after six months of simulation due to the cooler lower layer temperature. Underestimation is more significant in the positive PTO years due to the wide distribution in higher latitudes than in the negative PTO years.

Assimilation of the seabird and ship drift data in the north-eastern sea of Japan into an operational ocean nowcast/forecast system.

At the present time, ocean current is being operationally monitored mainly by combined use of numerical ocean nowcast/forecast models and satellite remote sensing data. Improvement in the accuracy of the ocean current nowcast/forecast requires additional measurements with higher spatial and temporal resolution as expected from the current observation network. Here we show feasibility of assimilating high-resolution seabird and ship drift data into an operational ocean forecast system. Data assimilation of geostrophic current contained in the observed drift leads to refinement in the gyre mode events of the Tsugaru warm current in the north-eastern sea of Japan represented by the model. Fitting the observed drift to the model depends on ability of the drift representing geostrophic current compared to that representing directly wind driven components. A preferable horizontal scale of 50 km indicated for the seabird drift data assimilation implies their capability of capturing eddies with smaller horizontal scale than the minimum scale of 100 km resolved by the satellite altimetry. The present study actually demonstrates that transdisciplinary approaches combining bio-/ship- logging and numerical modeling could be effective for enhancement in monitoring the ocean current.

Emission, Dynamics and Transport of Perfluoroalkyl Substances from Land to Ocean by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.

Water samples collected along the Japanese coast and in the open Pacific Ocean in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were analyzed for perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) to evaluate the effect of Great East Japan Earthquake (EQ 3.11), which occurred on March 11, 2011, on the dispersion of chemical pollutants. Ultratrace analysis of PFASs in water, a super computer simulation, and an inventory analysis from industrial records revealed the sources and dynamics of PFASs during the EQ 3.11 disaster. In this respect, EQ 3.11 destroyed solid infrastructure on land, and within minutes, PFASs stocked therein were released into the open environment. The historically significant tsunami backwash swept them away from their origin to the coastal water within several hours. It was estimated that from 0.8 to 1.0 tons of perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and 4.8 to 5.1 tons of PFOA were discharged into the coastal waters after EQ 3.11 and the tsunami that followed. The reconstruction of EQ 3.11 also traced the influence of this pollution in open ocean water until March 2012, and a statistical and finger printing analysis revealed that there were different distribution mechanisms in coastal regions than in the open ocean for PFOS, other shorter chain perfluorinated sulfonic acids and perfluorinated carboxylic acids.