Improved Indicators for Subnational Unmet Antiretroviral Therapy Need in the Health System: Updates to the Naomi Model in 2023.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying subnational need for antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV is challenging because people living with HIV (PLHIV) access health facilities in areas that may differ from their residence. We defined and demonstrated new indicators for PLHIV treatment needed to guide health system target setting and resource allocation. SETTING: Botswana. METHODS: We extended Naomi, a Bayesian small-area model for estimating district-level HIV indicators from national household survey and HIV service delivery data. We used model outputs for ART seeking probabilities in neighboring districts to define the "PLHIV (attending)" indicator representing the estimated number of PLHIV who would seek treatment at health facilities in a district, and "Untreated PLHIV attending" representing gaps in ART service provision. Botswana 2021 district HIV estimates were used to demonstrate new outputs and assess the sensitivity to uncertainty in district population sizes. RESULTS: Across districts of Botswana, estimated adult ART coverage in December 2021 ranged 90%-96%. In the capital city Gaborone, there were 50,400 resident PLHIV and 64,200 receiving ART, of whom 24% (95% CI: 20 to 32) were estimated to reside in neighboring districts. Applying ART attendance probabilities gave a "PLHIV attending" denominator of 68,300 and unmet treatment need of 4100 adults (95% CI: 3000 to 5500) for Gaborone health facilities. The facility-based "PLHIV attending" denominator was less-sensitive to fluctuations in district population size assumptions. CONCLUSIONS: New indicators provided more consistent targets for HIV service provision, but are limited by ART data quality. This challenge will increase as treatment coverage reaches high levels and treatment gaps are smaller.

Five years after Treat All implementation: Botswana's HIV response and future directions in the era of COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: As the relentless coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across Africa, Botswana could face challenges maintaining the pathway towards control of its HIV epidemic. OBJECTIVE: Utilising the Spectrum GOALS module (GOALS-2021), the 5-year outcomes from the implementation of the Treat All strategy were analysed and compared with the original 2016 Investment Case (2016-IC) projections. Future impact of adopting the new Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Global AIDS Strategy (2021-2026) targets and macroeconomic analysis estimating how the financial constraints from the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the available resources for Botswana's National HIV Response through 2030 were also considered. METHOD: Programmatic costs, population demographics, prevention and treatment outputs were determined. Previous 2016-IC data were uploaded for comparison, and inputs for the GOALS, AIM, DemProj, Resource Needs and Family Planning modules were derived from published reports, strategic plans, programmatic data and expert opinion. The economic projections were recalibrated with consideration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS: Decreases in HIV infections, incidence and mortality rates were achieved. Increases in laboratory costs were offset by estimated decreases in the population of people living with HIV (PLWH). Moving forward, young women and others at high risk must be targeted in HIV prevention efforts, as Botswana transitions from a generalised to a more concentrated epidemic. CONCLUSION: The Treat All strategy contributed positively to decreases in new HIV infections, mortality and costs. If significant improvements in differentiated service delivery, increases in human resources and HIV prevention can be realised, Botswana could become one of the first countries with a previously high-burdened generalised HIV epidemic to gain epidemic control, despite the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Five years after treat all implementation: Botswana's HIV response and future directions in the era of COVID-19

Background: As the relentless coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across Africa, Botswana could face challenges maintaining the pathway towards control of its HIV epidemic.Objective: Utilising the Spectrum GOALS module (GOALS-2021), the 5-year outcomes from the implementation of the Treat All strategy were analysed and compared with the original 2016 Investment Case (2016-IC) projections. Future impact of adopting the new Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Global AIDS Strategy (2021­2026) targets and macroeconomic analysis estimating how the financial constraints from the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the available resources for Botswana's National HIV Response through 2030 were also considered.Method: Programmatic costs, population demographics, prevention and treatment outputs were determined. Previous 2016-IC data were uploaded for comparison, and inputs for the GOALS, AIM, DemProj, Resource Needs and Family Planning modules were derived from published reports, strategic plans, programmatic data and expert opinion. The economic projections were recalibrated with consideration of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.Results: Decreases in HIV infections, incidence and mortality rates were achieved. Increases in laboratory costs were offset by estimated decreases in the population of people living with HIV (PLWH). Moving forward, young women and others at high risk must be targeted in HIV prevention efforts, as Botswana transitions from a generalised to a more concentrated epidemic.Conclusion: The Treat All strategy contributed positively to decreases in new HIV infections, mortality and costs. If significant improvements in differentiated service delivery, increases in human resources and HIV prevention can be realised, Botswana could become one of the first countries with a previously high-burdened generalised HIV epidemic to gain epidemic control, despite the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Epidemiological Trends for HIV in Southern Africa: Implications for Reaching the Elimination Targets.

Southern Africa is the region worst affected by HIV in the world and accounts for one third of the global burden of HIV. Achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target by 2020 and ending the AIDS epidemic by 2030 depend on success in this region. We review epidemiological trends in each country in southern Africa with respect to the prevalence, incidence, mortality, coverage of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and TB notification rates, to better understand progress in controlling HIV and TB and to determine what needs to be done to reach the UNAIDS targets. Significant progress has been made in controlling HIV. In all countries in the region, the prevalence of HIV in people not on ART, the incidence of HIV, AIDS-related mortality and, in most countries, TB notification rates, are falling. In some countries, the risk of infection began to fall before biomedical interventions such as ART became widely available as a result of effective prevention measures or people's awareness of, and response to, the epidemic but the reasons for these declines remain uncertain. Some countries have achieved better levels of ART coverage than others, but all are in a position to reach the 2020 and 2030 targets if they accelerate the roll-out of ART and of targeted prevention efforts. Achieving the HIV treatment targets will further reduce the incidence of HIV-related TB, but efforts to control TB in HIV-negative people must be improved and strengthened.

Establishing a health information workforce: innovation for low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: To address the shortage of health information personnel within Botswana, an innovative human resources approach was taken. University graduates without training or experience in health information or health sciences were hired and provided with on-the-job training and mentoring to create a new cadre of health worker: the district Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Officer. This article describes the early outcomes, achievements, and challenges from this initiative. METHODS: Data were collected from the district M&E Officers over a 2-year period and included a skills assessment at baseline and 12 months, pre- and post-training tests, interviews during stakeholder site visits, a survey of achievements, focus group discussions, and an attrition assessment. RESULTS: An average of 2.7 mentoring visits were conducted for M&E Officers in each district. There were five training sessions over 18 months. Knowledge scores significantly increased (p < 0.05) during the three trainings in which pre/post tests were administered. Over 1 year, there were significant improvements (p < 0.05) in self-rated skills related to computer literacy, checking data validity, implementing data quality procedures, using data to support program planning, proposing indicators, and writing M&E reports. Out of the 34 district M&E Officers interviewed during site visits, most were conducting facility visits to review data (27/34; 79%), comparing data sets over time (31/34; 91%), backing up data (32/34; 94%), and analyzing data (32/34; 94%). Common challenges included late facility reports (28/34; 82%), lack of transportation (22/34; 65%), inaccurate facility reports (10/34; 29%), and colleagues' misunderstanding of M&E (10/34; 29%). Six posts were vacated in the first year (6/51; 12%). A total of 49 Officers completed the achievements survey; of these, common accomplishments related to improvements in data management (35/49; 71%), data quality (31/49; 63%), data use (29/49; 59%), and capacity development (26/49; 53%). CONCLUSIONS: The development of a cadre of district M&E Officers has contributed positively to the health information system in Botswana. In the absence of tertiary training related to health information, on-the-job training and mentoring of university graduates can be an effective approach for developing a new professional cadre of M&E expertise and for strengthening capacity within a national health system.

HIV-Related knowledge, attitudes, and practice among educated young adults in Botswana.

Students at the University of Botswana, an at-risk group, have previously been shown to have high levels of risky sexual behavior despite widespread knowledge that these behaviors might lead to HIV-1 infection. As there have recently been considerable efforts focused on HIV-1 prevention in Botswana through nationwide media education campaigns and the opening of voluntary counselling and testing centers, re-evaluation of HIV-related knowledge, attitudes, and practices among students is needed. A cross-sectional survey was administered to 393 students chosen via a random cluster method. Respondents were 50% junior and 50% senior students with 42% males. Half (52%) were "single", 44% were "in a relationship", and 4% were "married". The mean percentage of knowledge questions answered correctly was 96%. 98% agreed that all sexually active adults should know their status and that condom use is important, but only 56% believed getting tested was common and 66% believed that it was common for students to always use a condom. As with the previous survey, we again found that students had excellent knowledge yet perceived use of testing services and condoms remain lower than might be predicted based on knowledge scores.

Prevalence of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Botswana: lessons learned from the HIVDR-Threshold Survey conducted among women presenting for routine antenatal care as part of the 2007 national sentinel survey.

The emergence and spread of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) poses a major threat to the success of the rapidly expanding antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in resource-limited countries. The World Health Organization recommends the use of the HIV Drug Resistance Threshold Survey (HIVDR-TS) as an affordable means to monitor the presence of TDR in these settings. We report our experiences and results of the 2007 HIVDR-TS in Botswana, a country with one of the longest-existing national public ART programs in Africa. The HIVDR-TS and HIV-1 incidence testing were performed in the two largest national sites as part of the 2007 antenatal Botswana Sentinel Survey. The HIVDR-TS showed no significant drug resistance mutations (TDR less than 5%) in one site. TDR prevalence, however, could not be ascertained at the second site due to low sample size. The agreement between HIVDR-TS eligibility criteria and laboratory-based methodologies (i.e., BED-CEIA and LS-EIA) in identifying recently HIV-1 infected adults was poor. Five years following the establishment of Botswana's public ART program, the prevalence of TDR remains low. The HIVDR-TS methodology has limitations for low-density populations as in Botswana, where the majority of antenatal sites are too small to recruit sufficient numbers of patients. In addition, the eligibility criteria (age <25 years and parity (first pregnancy)) of the HIVDR-TS performed poorly in identifying recent HIV-1 infections in Botswana. An alternative sampling strategy should be considered for the surveillance of HIVDR in Botswana and similar geographic settings.