Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of its range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographical range projections using a mechanistic niche area approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data were either static ("no evolution" models), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates ("evolution" models) or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled by the trait variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; "scaled evolution" models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.

Size reductions and genomic changes within two generations in wild walleye populations: associated with harvest?

The extent and rate of harvest-induced genetic changes in natural populations may impact population productivity, recovery, and persistence. While there is substantial evidence for phenotypic changes in harvested fishes, knowledge of genetic change in the wild remains limited, as phenotypic and genetic data are seldom considered in tandem, and the number of generations needed for genetic changes to occur is not well understood. We quantified changes in size-at-age, sex-specific changes in body size, and genomic metrics in three harvested walleye (Sander vitreus) populations and a fourth reference population with low harvest levels over a 15-year period in Mistassini Lake, Quebec. We also collected Indigenous knowledge (IK) surrounding concerns about these populations over time. Using ~9,000 SNPs, genomic metrics included changes in population structure, neutral genomic diversity, effective population size, and signatures of selection. Indigenous knowledge revealed overall reductions in body size and number of fish caught. Smaller body size, a small reduction in size-at-age, nascent changes to population structure (population differentiation within one river and homogenization between two others), and signatures of selection between historical and contemporary samples reflected coupled phenotypic and genomic change in the three harvested populations in both sexes, while no change occurred in the reference population. Sex-specific analyses revealed differences in both body size and genomic metrics but were inconclusive about whether one sex was disproportionately affected. Although alternative explanations cannot be ruled out, our collective results are consistent with the hypothesis that genetic changes associated with harvesting may arise within 1-2.5 generations in long-lived wild fishes. This study thus demonstrates the need to investigate concerns about harvest-induced evolution quickly once they have been raised.

Rainbow trout in seasonal environments: phenotypic trade-offs across a gradient in winter duration.

Survival through periods of resource scarcity depends on the balance between metabolic demands and energy storage. The opposing effects of predation and starvation mortality are predicted to result in trade-offs between traits that optimize fitness during periods of resource plenty (e.g., during the growing season) and those that optimize fitness during periods of resource scarcity (e.g., during the winter). We conducted a common environment experiment with two genetically distinct strains of rainbow trout to investigate trade-offs due to (1) the balance of growth and predation risk related to foraging rate during the growing season and (2) the allocation of energy to body size prior to the winter. Fry (age 0) from both strains were stocked into replicate natural lakes at low and high elevation that differed in winter duration (i.e., ice cover) by 59 days. Overwinter survival was lowest in the high-elevation lakes for both strains. Activity rate and growth rate were highest at high elevation, but growing season survival did not differ between strains or between environments. Hence, we did not observe a trade-off between growth and predation risk related to foraging rate. Growth rate also differed significantly between the strains across both environments, which suggests that growth rate is involved in local adaptation. There was not, however, a difference between strains or between environments in energy storage. Hence, we did not observe a trade-off between growth and storage. Our findings suggest that intrinsic metabolic rate, which affects a trade-off between growth rate and overwinter survival, may influence local adaptation in organisms that experience particularly harsh winter conditions (e.g., extended periods trapped beneath the ice in high-elevation lakes) in some parts of their range.

Energy allocation strategy modifies growth-survival trade-offs in juvenile fish across ecological and environmental gradients.

In young temperate zone fishes, conflicting energy demands lead to variability in growing season and winter survival. Growing season survival is driven by size-dependent predation risk whereas winter survival is constrained by autumn body size, energy storage and winter duration. We developed a model of the seasonality of energetics coupled to empirical measures of resource availability, size-dependent predation and temperature seasonality for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in two sets of lakes in British Columbia, Canada, representing endpoints of a gradient of temperature, growing season duration and winter duration. This model was used to determine the energy allocation strategy which maximized first-year survival across these gradients. Survival was sensitive to the timing of the switch from somatic to storage strategies in cold, short growing season, low resource environments. A broader range of energy allocation strategies were viable in warmer, longer growing season and higher resource lakes. We used empirical observations of autumn energy storage and our modeled values for size-dependent minimal lipid levels needed to survive winter in each system to estimate winter survival for juvenile rainbow trout. Winter survival estimates were 6% in cold lakes with low resources, 82% in warm, lakes with low resources and 100% in warm lakes with high resources. Fish in warm lakes with ample resources allocated substantially more to storage than the minimum required to survive winter generated from our model, suggesting additional selection pressures for increased storage when there was ample surplus energy. We concluded that growth-survival trade-offs, modified by seasonality of the environment, influenced the growing season energy allocation strategies for young-of-the-year fish, and suggested this may be important for understanding population viability across environmental gradients.