Growth exponents reflect evolutionary processes and treatment response in brain metastases.

Tumor growth is the result of the interplay of complex biological processes in huge numbers of individual cells living in changing environments. Effective simple mathematical laws have been shown to describe tumor growth in vitro, or simple animal models with bounded-growth dynamics accurately. However, results for the growth of human cancers in patients are scarce. Our study mined a large dataset of 1133 brain metastases (BMs) with longitudinal imaging follow-up to find growth laws for untreated BMs and recurrent treated BMs. Untreated BMs showed high growth exponents, most likely related to the underlying evolutionary dynamics, with experimental tumors in mice resembling accurately the disease. Recurrent BMs growth exponents were smaller, most probably due to a reduction in tumor heterogeneity after treatment, which may limit the tumor evolutionary capabilities. In silico simulations using a stochastic discrete mesoscopic model with basic evolutionary dynamics led to results in line with the observed data.

A comprehensive dataset of annotated brain metastasis MR images with clinical and radiomic data.

Brain metastasis (BM) is one of the main complications of many cancers, and the most frequent malignancy of the central nervous system. Imaging studies of BMs are routinely used for diagnosis of disease, treatment planning and follow-up. Artificial Intelligence (AI) has great potential to provide automated tools to assist in the management of disease. However, AI methods require large datasets for training and validation, and to date there have been just one publicly available imaging dataset of 156 BMs. This paper publishes 637 high-resolution imaging studies of 75 patients harboring 260 BM lesions, and their respective clinical data. It also includes semi-automatic segmentations of 593 BMs, including pre- and post-treatment T1-weighted cases, and a set of morphological and radiomic features for the cases segmented. This data-sharing initiative is expected to enable research into and performance evaluation of automatic BM detection, lesion segmentation, disease status evaluation and treatment planning methods for BMs, as well as the development and validation of predictive and prognostic tools with clinical applicability.

Metabolic activity grows in human cancers pushed by phenotypic variability.

Different evolutionary processes push cancers to increasingly aggressive behaviors, energetically sustained by metabolic reprogramming. The collective signature emerging from this transition is macroscopically displayed by positron emission tomography (PET). In fact, the most readily PET measure, the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), has been found to have prognostic value in different cancers. However, few works have linked the properties of this metabolic hotspot to cancer evolutionary dynamics. Here, by analyzing diagnostic PET images from 512 patients with cancer, we found that SUVmax scales superlinearly with the mean metabolic activity (SUVmean), reflecting a dynamic preferential accumulation of activity on the hotspot. Additionally, SUVmax increased with metabolic tumor volume (MTV) following a power law. The behavior from the patients data was accurately captured by a mechanistic evolutionary dynamics model of tumor growth accounting for phenotypic transitions. This suggests that non-genetic changes may suffice to fuel the observed sustained increases in tumor metabolic activity.

Growth dynamics of brain metastases differentiate radiation necrosis from recurrence.

Background: Radiation necrosis (RN) is a frequent adverse event after fractionated stereotactic radiotherapy (FSRT) or single-session stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment of brain metastases (BMs). It is difficult to distinguish RN from progressive disease (PD) due to their similarities in the magnetic resonance images. Previous theoretical studies have hypothesized that RN could have faster, although transient, growth dynamics after FSRT/SRS, but no study has proven that hypothesis using patient data. Thus, we hypothesized that lesion size time dynamics obtained from growth laws fitted with data from sequential volumetric measurements on magnetic resonance images may help in discriminating recurrent BMs from RN events. Methods: A total of 101 BMs from different institutions, growing after FSRT/SRS (60 PDs and 41 RNs) in 86 patients, displaying growth for at least 3 consecutive MRI follow-ups were selected for the study from a database of 1031 BMs. The 3 parameters of the Von Bertalanffy growth law were determined for each BM and used to discriminate statistically PDs from RNs. Results: Growth exponents in patients with RNs were found to be substantially larger than those of PD, due to the faster, although transient, dynamics of inflammatory processes. Statistically significant differences (P < .001) were found between both groups. The receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC = 0.76) supported the ability of the growth law exponent to classify the events. Conclusions: Growth law exponents obtained from sequential longitudinal magnetic resonance images after FSRT/SRS can be used as a complementary tool in the differential diagnosis between RN and PD.

Evolutionary dynamics at the tumor edge reveal metabolic imaging biomarkers.

Human cancers are biologically and morphologically heterogeneous. A variety of clonal populations emerge within these neoplasms and their interaction leads to complex spatiotemporal dynamics during tumor growth. We studied the reshaping of metabolic activity in human cancers by means of continuous and discrete mathematical models and matched the results to positron emission tomography (PET) imaging data. Our models revealed that the location of increasingly active proliferative cellular spots progressively drifted from the center of the tumor to the periphery, as a result of the competition between gradually more aggressive phenotypes. This computational finding led to the development of a metric, normalized distance from 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) hotspot to centroid (NHOC), based on the separation from the location of the activity (proliferation) hotspot to the tumor centroid. The NHOC metric can be computed for patients using 18F-FDG PET-computed tomography (PET/CT) images where the voxel of maximum uptake (standardized uptake value [SUV]max) is taken as the activity hotspot. Two datasets of 18F-FDG PET/CT images were collected, one from 61 breast cancer patients and another from 161 non-small-cell lung cancer patients. In both cohorts, survival analyses were carried out for the NHOC and for other classical PET/CT-based biomarkers, finding that the former had a high prognostic value, outperforming the latter. In summary, our work offers additional insights into the evolutionary mechanisms behind tumor progression, provides a different PET/CT-based biomarker, and reveals that an activity hotspot closer to the tumor periphery is associated to a worst patient outcome.

A mesoscopic simulator to uncover heterogeneity and evolutionary dynamics in tumors.

Increasingly complex in silico modeling approaches offer a way to simultaneously access cancerous processes at different spatio-temporal scales. High-level models, such as those based on partial differential equations, are computationally affordable and allow large tumor sizes and long temporal windows to be studied, but miss the discrete nature of many key underlying cellular processes. Individual-based approaches provide a much more detailed description of tumors, but have difficulties when trying to handle full-sized real cancers. Thus, there exists a trade-off between the integration of macroscopic and microscopic information, now widely available, and the ability to attain clinical tumor sizes. In this paper we put forward a stochastic mesoscopic simulation framework that incorporates key cellular processes during tumor progression while keeping computational costs to a minimum. Our framework captures a physical scale that allows both the incorporation of microscopic information, tracking the spatio-temporal emergence of tumor heterogeneity and the underlying evolutionary dynamics, and the reconstruction of clinically sized tumors from high-resolution medical imaging data, with the additional benefit of low computational cost. We illustrate the functionality of our modeling approach for the case of glioblastoma, a paradigm of tumor heterogeneity that remains extremely challenging in the clinical setting.

Universal scaling laws rule explosive growth in human cancers.

Most physical and other natural systems are complex entities composed of a large number of interacting individual elements. It is a surprising fact that they often obey the so-called scaling laws relating an observable quantity with a measure of the size of the system. Here we describe the discovery of universal superlinear metabolic scaling laws in human cancers. This dependence underpins increasing tumour aggressiveness, due to evolutionary dynamics, which leads to an explosive growth as the disease progresses. We validated this dynamic using longitudinal volumetric data of different histologies from large cohorts of cancer patients. To explain our observations we put forward increasingly-complex biologically-inspired mathematical models that captured the key processes governing tumor growth. Our models predicted that the emergence of superlinear allometric scaling laws is an inherently three-dimensional phenomenon. Moreover, the scaling laws thereby identified allowed us to define a set of metabolic metrics with prognostic value, thus providing added clinical utility to the base findings.

Prognostic models based on imaging findings in glioblastoma: Human versus Machine.

Many studies have built machine-learning (ML)-based prognostic models for glioblastoma (GBM) based on radiological features. We wished to compare the predictive performance of these methods to human knowledge-based approaches. 404 GBM patients were included (311 discovery and 93 validation). 16 morphological and 28 textural descriptors were obtained from pretreatment volumetric postcontrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance images. Different prognostic ML methods were developed. An optimized linear prognostic model (OLPM) was also built using the four significant non-correlated parameters with individual prognosis value. OLPM achieved high prognostic value (validation c-index = 0.817) and outperformed ML models based on either the same parameter set or on the full set of 44 attributes considered. Neural networks with cross-validation-optimized attribute selection achieved comparable results (validation c-index = 0.825). ML models using only the four outstanding parameters obtained better results than their counterparts based on all the attributes, which presented overfitting. In conclusion, OLPM and ML methods studied here provided the most accurate survival predictors for glioblastoma to date, due to a combination of the strength of the methodology, the quality and volume of the data used and the careful attribute selection. The ML methods studied suffered overfitting and lost prognostic value when the number of parameters was increased.

Morphological MRI-based features provide pretreatment survival prediction in glioblastoma.

OBJECTIVES: We wished to determine whether tumor morphology descriptors obtained from pretreatment magnetic resonance images and clinical variables could predict survival for glioblastoma patients. METHODS: A cohort of 404 glioblastoma patients (311 discoveries and 93 validations) was used in the study. Pretreatment volumetric postcontrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance images were segmented to obtain the relevant morphological measures. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, correlations, and Harrell's concordance indexes (c-indexes) were used for the statistical analysis. RESULTS: A linear prognostic model based on the outstanding variables (age, contrast-enhanced (CE) rim width, and surface regularity) identified a group of patients with significantly better survival (p < 0.001, HR = 2.57) with high accuracy (discovery c-index = 0.74; validation c-index = 0.77). A similar model applied to totally resected patients was also able to predict survival (p < 0.001, HR = 3.43) with high predictive value (discovery c-index = 0.81; validation c-index = 0.92). Biopsied patients with better survival were well identified (p < 0.001, HR = 7.25) by a model including age and CE volume (c-index = 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Simple linear models based on small sets of meaningful MRI-based pretreatment morphological features and age predicted survival of glioblastoma patients to a high degree of accuracy. The partition of the population using the extent of resection improved the prognostic value of those measures. KEY POINTS: • A combination of two MRI-based morphological features (CE rim width and surface regularity) and patients' age outperformed previous prognosis scores for glioblastoma. • Prognosis models for homogeneous surgical procedure groups led to even more accurate survival prediction based on Kaplan-Meier analysis and concordance indexes.

Correction to: Morphological MRI-based features provide pretreatment survival prediction in glioblastoma.

The original version of this article, published on 15 October 2018, unfortunately contained a mistake. The following correction has therefore been made in the original: The name of Mariano Amo-Salas and the affiliation of Ismael Herruzo were presented incorrectly.

Tumor Surface Regularity at MR Imaging Predicts Survival and Response to Surgery in Patients with Glioblastoma.

Purpose To evaluate the prognostic and predictive value of surface-derived imaging biomarkers obtained from contrast material-enhanced volumetric T1-weighted pretreatment magnetic resonance (MR) imaging sequences in patients with glioblastoma multiforme. Materials and Methods A discovery cohort from five local institutions (165 patients; mean age, 62 years ± 12 [standard deviation]; 43% women and 57% men) and an independent validation cohort (51 patients; mean age, 60 years ± 12; 39% women and 61% men) from The Cancer Imaging Archive with volumetric T1-weighted pretreatment contrast-enhanced MR imaging sequences were included in the study. Clinical variables such as age, treatment, and survival were collected. After tumor segmentation and image processing, tumor surface regularity, measuring how much the tumor surface deviates from a sphere of the same volume, was obtained. Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazards, correlations, and concordance indexes were used to compare variables and patient subgroups. Results Surface regularity was a powerful predictor of survival in the discovery (P = .005, hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61) and validation groups (P = .05, HR = 1.84). Multivariate analysis selected age and surface regularity as significant variables in a combined prognostic model (P < .001, HR = 3.05). The model achieved concordance indexes of 0.76 and 0.74 for the discovery and validation cohorts, respectively. Tumor surface regularity was a predictor of survival for patients who underwent complete resection (P = .01, HR = 1.90). Tumors with irregular surfaces did not benefit from total over subtotal resections (P = .57, HR = 1.17), but those with regular surfaces did (P = .004, HR = 2.07). Conclusion The surface regularity obtained from high-resolution contrast-enhanced pretreatment volumetric T1-weighted MR images is a predictor of survival in patients with glioblastoma. It may help in classifying patients for surgery.

Intratumoral heterogeneity in 18F-FDG PET/CT by textural analysis in breast cancer as a predictive and prognostic subrogate.

AIM: To assess the predictive and prognostic value of textural parameters in locally advanced breast cancer (LABC) obtained by 18F-FDG PET/CT. METHODS: Prospective study including 68 patients with LABC, neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NC) indication and a baseline 18F-FDG PET/CT. Breast specimens were grouped into molecular phenotypes and classified as responders or non-responders after completion of NC. Patients underwent standard follow-up to obtain the disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). After breast tumor segmentation, three-dimensional (3D) textural measures were computed based on run-length matrices (RLM) and co-occurrence matrices (CM). Relations between textural features with risk categories attending to molecular phenotypes were explored. Kaplan-Meier analysis and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis were used to study the potential of textural variables, molecular phenotypes and histologic response to predict DFS and OS. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to obtain the best cut-off value, the area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity and specificity considering OS and DFS. RESULTS: Eighteen patients were classified as responders. Mean ± SD of DFS and OS was 70.87 ± 21.85 and 76.77 ± 18.80 months, respectively. Long run emphasis (LRE) and long run high gray-level emphasis (LRHGE) showed a relation with risk categories. Low gray-level run emphasis (LGRE), LRHGE and run-length non-uniformity (RLNU) showed association with the NC response. Textural variables were significantly associated with OS and DFS in univariate analysis. Regarding the multivariate Cox regression analysis, PET stage with short run high gray-level emphasis (SRHGE) was significantly associated with OS, and PET stage and high gray-level run emphasis (HGRE) with DFS. CONCLUSION: Textural variables obtained with 18F-FDG PET/CT were predictors of neoadjuvant chemotherapy response and prognosis, being as relevant as PET stage at diagnosis for OS and DFS prediction.