Overview of snakebite in Brazil: Possible drivers and a tool for risk mapping.

Snakebite envenoming affects close to 2.7 million people globally every year. In Brazil, snakebites are reported to the Ministry of Health surveillance system and cases receive antivenom free of charge. There is an urgent need to identify higher risk areas for antivenom distribution, and to develop prevention activities. The objective of this study is to provide an overview of the epidemiological situation of snakebite envenoming in Brazil and explore possible drivers; as well as to create a flowchart tool to support decision-makers identify higher risk areas. An ecological-type study was carried out using data by municipality (2013-2017). Study parts: 1) Create a geocoded database and perform a descriptive and cluster analysis; 2) Statistical analysis to measure the association of snakebite and possible environmental and socioeconomic drivers; 3) Develop a flowchart to support decision-makers and the application of this tool in one state (Rio Grande do Sul) as an example. An average of 27,120 snakebite cases per year were reported at the country level. Clusters of municipalities with high numbers of snakebites are mostly found in the Amazon Legal Region. The negative binomial regression model showed association with the snakebite case count: the type of major habitat, tropical or non-tropical; temperature; percentage of urbanization; precipitation; elevation; GDP per capita; a weaker relation with forest loss; and with venomous snake richness. The state where the instrument was applied reported 4,227 snakebites in the period. Most municipalities were considered as medium risk and 56/496 as high risk according to the tool created. Snakebite cases are distributed across the entire country with the highest concentration in the Legal Amazon Region. This creates a complex situation both for better understanding of the association of environmental and socioeconomic factors with snakebites and for the distribution and maintenance of antivenom to remote areas. Research into types of antivenom with a longer shelf life without the need for refrigeration is needed.

Towards the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: development and application of an evidence-based management tool.

BACKGROUND: International organizations advocate for the elimination of dog-mediated rabies, but there is only limited guidance on interpreting surveillance data for managing elimination programmes. With the regional programme in Latin America approaching elimination of dog-mediated rabies, we aimed to develop a tool to evaluate the programme's performance and generate locally-tailored rabies control programme management guidance to overcome remaining obstacles. METHODS: We developed and validated a robust algorithm to classify progress towards rabies elimination within sub-national administrative units, which we applied to surveillance data from Brazil and Mexico. The method combines criteria that are easy to understand, including logistic regression analysis of case detection time series, assessment of rabies virus variants, and of incursion risk. Subjecting the algorithm to robustness testing, we further employed simulated data sub-sampled at differing levels of case detection to assess the algorithm's performance and sensitivity to surveillance quality. RESULTS: Our tool demonstrated clear epidemiological transitions in Mexico and Brazil: most states progressed rapidly towards elimination, but a few regressed due to incursions and control lapses. In 2015, dog-mediated rabies continued to circulate in the poorest states, with foci remaining in only 1 of 32 states in Mexico, and 2 of 27 in Brazil, posing incursion risks to the wider region. The classification tool was robust in determining epidemiological status irrespective of most levels of surveillance quality. In endemic settings, surveillance would need to detect less than 2.5% of all circulating cases to result in misclassification, whereas in settings where incursions become the main source of cases the threshold detection level for correct classification should not be less than 5%. CONCLUSION: Our tool provides guidance on how to progress effectively towards elimination targets and tailor strategies to local epidemiological situations, while revealing insights into rabies dynamics. Post-campaign assessments of dog vaccination coverage in endemic states, and enhanced surveillance to verify and maintain freedom in states threatened by incursions were identified as priorities to catalyze progress towards elimination. Our finding suggests genomic surveillance should become increasingly valuable during the endgame for discriminating circulating variants and pinpointing sources of incursions.