Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of Schistosoma mansoni competent snails in Brazil.

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by Schistosoma parasites. Schistosoma are obligate parasites of freshwater Biomphalaria snails, so controlling snail populations is critical to reducing transmission risk. As snails are sensitive to environmental conditions, we expect their distribution is significantly impacted by global change. Here, we leveraged machine learning, remote sensing, and 30 years of snail occurrence records to map the historical and current distribution of competent Biomphalaria throughout Brazil. We identified key features influencing the distribution of suitable habitat and determined how Biomphalaria habitat has changed with climate and urbanization over the last three decades. Our models show that climate change has driven broad shifts in snail host range, whereas expansion of urban and peri-urban areas has driven localized increases in habitat suitability. Elucidating change in Biomphalaria distribution - while accounting for non-linearities that are difficult to detect from local case studies - can help inform schistosomiasis control strategies.

The Effectiveness of Pilates Training Interventions on Older Adults' Balance: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pilates training intervention programs have gained attention as a potential approach to enhancing balance in older adults, thereby reducing the risk of falls. In light of these considerations, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to critically evaluate the existing evidence and determine the effect of Pilates training intervention programs on older adults' balance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The literature was searched through the PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases from inception until July 2023. The primary keywords used for the literature search included "elderly" or "older adults" and "pilates training" and "balance". RESULTS: The systematic review through qualitative analysis showed robust evidence about the efficacy of Pilates intervention programs in improving older adults' balance. The pooled meta-analysis of static and dynamic balance showed that eight (53%) out of a total fifteen analyzed interventions presented a significant effect of Pilates in improving the participants' balance, without between-study heterogeneity. In addition, the meta-analysis regarding dynamic balance showed that six (67%) out of nine analyzed interventions presented a significant effect of Pilates in improving the participants' balance, without heterogeneity between studies. Similarly, the meta-analysis regarding static balance showed that four (50%) out of eight analyzed studies presented significant effects on the older adults' balance, where moderate between-study heterogeneity was found. Sensitivity analysis showed that three studies reduced the between-study heterogeneity (19, 17.6, and 17%), regressing from moderate to low heterogeneity, p < 0.05. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and meta-analysis underscores the potential of Pilates training as a valuable intervention to enhance balance in the elderly population.

A pilot study on fear and risk of fall: The impact of an 8-month multicomponent exercise program in community-dwelling aged adults / Un estudio piloto sobre el miedo y el riesgo de caída: el impacto de un programa de ejercicios de componentes múltiples de 8 meses en adultos mayores que viven en la comunidad / Um estudo piloto sobre medo e risco de queda: o impacto de um programa de exercício multicomponente de 8 meses em adultos idosos residentes na comunidade

Este estudio tuvo como objetivo examinar el impacto del efecto de un programa de ejercicio de componentes múltiples de 8 meses en adultos mayores que viven en la comunidad. Utilizamos una estrategia inclusiva para examinar la viabilidad de un programa de ejercicio de tres veces por semana. Tener más de 60 años, la capacidad de pararse y caminar con o sin equipo de asistencia, ser físicamente inactivo, autorización médica y vivir en la comunidad fueron todos los criterios de elegibilidad. Se utilizaron la prueba Timed-up and Go y la Berg Balance Scale para examinar el riesgo de caídas. Se utilizó la Fall-Efficacy Scale International para examinar el miedo a las caídas. El programa de ejercicio basado en la comunidad involucró a treinta y cinco participantes, la edad promedio fue de 67.54 años (SD = 3.81) y el 71% eran mujeres. Las tasas de asistencia variaron de 76% a 100% en promedio. Hubo una tendencia significativa hacia una mejora clínicamente importante en el timed-up and go test (t = 4.66; p < .001; d = 0.20), escala de equilibrio de Berg (t = -11.20; p < .001; d = 1.47) y escala internacional de eficacia contra caídas (t = 5.81; p < .001; d = 0.88). Este estudio ha proporcionado evidencia preliminar de que un programa de ejercicio de bajo costo basado en la comunidad de 8 meses puede ser efectivo para mejorar la agilidad, el equilibrio y disminuir el miedo a caerse en las personas mayores. (AU)

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of an 8-month multicomponent exercise program in community-dwelling older adults. A comprehensive approach was employed to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of a thrice-weekly exercise intervention. Aged over 60 years, the capacity to stand and walk with or without assistive equipment, being physically inactive, medical clearance, and living in the community were all eligibility criteria. The Timed-up and Go test and Berg Balance Scale were used to examine risk of falling. The Fall-Efficacy Scale International was used to examine the fear of falling. The community-based exercise program involved thirty-five participants, the average age was 67.54 years (SD = 3.81) and 71% were female. At-tendance rates ranged from 76% to 100% on average. There was a significant trend toward a clinically important improvement in the timed-up and go test (t = 4.66; p < .001; d = 0.20), berg balance scale (t = -11.20; p < .001; d = 1.47) and fall-efficacy scale international (t = 5.81; p < .001; d = 0.88). This study has provided preliminary evidence that an 8-month community-based low-cost exercise program may be effective in improving agility, balance, and decreasing fear of falling in older people. (AU)

Este estudo teve como objetivo examinar o impacto do efeito de um programa de exercício multicomponente de 8 meses em idosos residentes na comunidade. Usamos uma estratégia inclusiva para examinar a viabilidade de um programa de exercícios três vezes por semana. Idade acima de 60 anos, capacidade de ficar em pé e andar com ou sem equipamento auxiliar, ser inativo fisicamente, ter autorização médica e morar na comunidade foram todos os critériosde elegibilidade. O teste Timed-up and Go e a Escala de Equilíbrio de Berg foram usados para examinar o risco de queda. A Fall-Efficacy Scale International foi utilizada para examinar o medo de cair. O programa de exercícios comunitários envolveu trinta e cinco participantes, a idade média foi de 67,54 anos (DP = 3.81) e 71% eram do sexo feminino. As taxas de adesão variaram de 76% a 100%, em média. Houve uma tendência significativa para uma melhora clinicamente importante no timed-up and go test (t = 4.66;p < .001; d = 0.20), escala de equilíbrio de Berg (t = -11.20; p < .001; d = 1.47) e escala de eficácia de queda internacional (t = 5.81; p < 0.001; d = 0.88). Este estudo forneceu evidências preliminares de que um programa de exercícios de baixo custobaseado na comunidade de 8 meses pode ser eficaz para melhorar a agilidade, o equilíbrio e diminuir o medo de cair em idosos. (AU)

Resultant equations for training load monitoring during a standard microcycle in sub-elite youth football: a principal components approach.

Applying data-reduction techniques to extract meaningful information from electronic performance and tracking systems (EPTS) has become a hot topic in football training load (TL) monitoring. The aim of this study was to reduce the dimensionality of the internal and external load measures, by a principal component approach, to describe and explain the resultant equations for TL monitoring during a standard in-season microcycle in sub-elite youth football. Additionally, it is intended to identify the most representative measure for each principal component. A principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted with a Monte Carlo parallel analysis and VariMax rotation to extract baseline characteristics, external TL, heart rate (HR)-based measures and perceived exertion. Training data were collected from sixty sub-elite young football players during a 6-week training period using 18 Hz global positioning system (GPS) with inertial sensors, 1 Hz short-range telemetry system, total quality recovery (TQR) and rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Five principal components accounted for 68.7% of the total variance explained in the training data. Resultant equations from PCA was subdivided into: (1) explosiveness, accelerations and impacts (27.4%); (2) high-speed running (16.2%); (3) HR-based measures (10.0%); (4) baseline characteristics (8.3%); and (5) average running velocity (6.7%). Considering the highest factor in each principal component, decelerations (PCA 1), sprint distance (PCA 2), average HR (PCA 3), chronological age (PCA 4) and maximal speed (PCA 5) are the conditional dimension to be considered in TL monitoring during a standard microcycle in sub-elite youth football players. Current research provides the first composite equations to extract the most representative components during a standard in-season microcycle in sub-elite youth football players. Futures research should expand the resultant equations within training days, by considering other well-being measures, technical-tactical skills and match-related contextual factors.

A Deep Learning Neural Network to Classify Obesity Risk in Portuguese Adolescents Based on Physical Fitness Levels and Body Mass Index Percentiles: Insights for National Health Policies.

The increasing prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults is a risk factor for many chronic diseases and death. In addition, obesity among children and adolescents has reached unprecedented levels and studies show that obese children and adolescents are more likely to become obese adults. Therefore, both the prevention and treatment of obesity in adolescents are critical. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) neural network (NNET) model that identifies the risk of obesity in Portuguese adolescents based on their body mass index (BMI) percentiles and levels of physical fitness. Using datasets from the FITescola® project, 654 adolescents aged between 10-19 years old, male: 334 (51%), female: n = 320 (49%), age 13.8 ± 2 years old, were selected to participate in a cross-sectional observational study. Physical fitness variables, age, and sex were used to identify the risk of obesity. The NNET had good accuracy (75%) and performance validation through the Receiver Operating Characteristic using the Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC = 64%) in identifying the risk of obesity in Portuguese adolescents based on the BMI percentiles. Correlations of moderate effect size were perceived for aerobic fitness (AF), upper limbs strength (ULS), and sprint time (ST), showing that some physical fitness variables contributed to the obesity risk of the adolescents. Our NNET presented a good accuracy (75%) and was validated with the K-Folds Cross-Validation (K-Folds CV) with good accuracy (71%) and ROC AUC (66%). According to the NNET, there was an increased risk of obesity linked to low physical fitness in Portuguese teenagers.

Anthropometric Measures, Muscle Resistance, and Balance in Physically Active, Aged Adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the relationship between age, body mass index, muscle strength, and balance in physically active, aged adults. METHODS: Eighty-five participants were recruited for this study, having an average age of 70.31 years (SD = 9.90), ranging from 50 to 92 years. Twenty-six (30.6%) participants were male and fifty-nine (69.4%) were female. The participants had an average body mass index of 27.30 kg/m2 (SD = 3.62), ranging from 20.32 to 38.58 kg/m2. Participants undertook the Timed-Up and Go to test balance, and the chair-stand test to assess lower body strength. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted. Three models (Model 1, 2, and 3) were tested to assess their relationships with balance: M1-Lower body muscle strength; M2-Lower body muscle strength and body mass index; M3-Lower body muscle strength, body mass index, and age. RESULTS: All hierarchical models displayed significant variance. The third model explained 50.9% of the variance in dynamic balance, [F(3, 81) = 27.94, p < 0.001, R = 0.71, Ra2 = 0.51]. The difference in Ra2 between the first, second, and third models was statistically significant (p < 0.05). Age, body mass index, and lower body muscle strength had significant (p < 0.05) correlations with balance. In terms of the significant impact of each predictor, age had the strongest association with balance (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The results are useful to understand mechanisms or diagnose people at risk of fall.

Obesity Status and Physical Fitness Levels in Male and Female Portuguese Adolescents: A Two-Way Multivariate Analysis.

Obesity and decreasing fitness levels among the youth are growing concerns in Portugal, similar to other developed countries, with implications for health and psychomotor development. Understanding the influence of health determinants such as sex and age are crucial for developing effective public health strategies. This study aimed to analyze the association between sex and chronological age with obesity status and physical fitness in Portuguese adolescents. A total of 170 adolescents (85 males and 85 females) were evaluated for body mass index, abdominal adiposity, aerobic fitness, abdominal resistance, upper limb resistance, lower limb power, and maximal running speed in a 40 m sprint using the FITescola® physical fitness battery, a Portuguese government initiative. The general model, analyzed using Pillai's trace, showed a significant effect of age and sex on body mass index, abdominal circumference, aerobic fitness, abdominal resistance, upper limb resistance, lower limb power, and maximal running speed (V = 0.99, F (7) = 10,916.4, p < 0.001, partial η2, sex = 0.22; age = 0.43, sex and age interaction = 0.10). Boys had higher physical fitness levels than girls in most tests, but both sex groups had a significantly higher proportion of non-fit adolescents, with boys showing the highest number of participants classified as non-fit.

Aerobic Fitness as an Important Moderator Risk Factor for Loneliness in Physically Trained Older People: An Explanatory Case Study Using Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Loneliness in older people seems to have emerged as an increasingly prevalent social problem. OBJECTIVE: To apply a machine learning (ML) algorithm to the task of understanding the influence of sociodemographic variables, physical fitness, physical activity levels (PAL), and sedentary behavior (SB) on the loneliness feelings of physically trained older people. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The UCLA loneliness scale was used to evaluate loneliness, the Functional Fitness Test Battery was used to evaluate the correlation of sociodemographic variables, physical fitness, PAL, and SB in the loneliness feelings scores of 23 trained older people (19 women and 4 men). For this purpose, a naive Bayes ML algorithm was applied. RESULTS: After analysis, we inferred that aerobic fitness (AF), hand grip strength (HG), and upper limb strength (ULS) comprised the most relevant variables panel to cause high participant loneliness with 100% accuracy and F-1 score. CONCLUSIONS: The naive Bayes algorithm with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) predicted loneliness in trained older with a high precision. In addition, AF was the most potent variable in reducing loneliness risk.

Effects of a 24-Week Low-Cost Multicomponent Exercise Program on Health-Related Functional Fitness in the Community-Dwelling Aged and Older Adults.

Background and Objectives: This study aimed to examine the effects of a low-cost multicomponent exercise program on health-related functional fitness in the community-dwelling aged and older adults. As a second objective, this study compared the exercise program between aged adults (<65 years) and those considered elderly (≥65 years). Materials and Methods: Forty-eight participants were included in the exercise program, and their mean age was 64.73 years (±5.93 years). The Senior Fitness Tests were performed by each participant. A dynamometer was used to assess hand grip strength, and body composition was assessed considering the body mass index. Paired-sample t test was used to compare data at baseline and after the exercise program, considering the total sample. Afterwards, a 2 × 2 analysis of variance was used to examine differences within and between groups. Results: Statistically significant improvements in the chair stand (t = -14.06; p < 0.001; d = 0.42), arm curl (t = -12.10; p < 0.001; d = 0.58), 2 min step test (t = -9.41; p < 0.001; d = 0.24), timed up and go test (t = 5.60; p < 0.001; d = 0.19), and hand grip strength (t = -3.33; p < 0.001; d = 0.15) were observed. There were also significant differences in the back scratch (t = -6.68; p < 0.001; d = 0.18) and chair sit and reach test (t = 5.04; p < 0.001; d = 0.05), as well as body mass index (p < 0.05). No significant differences were found between groups (p > 0.05). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that a 24-week low-cost community-based exercise program can improve functional fitness in aged and in older adults. The exercise program supplied the necessary data to construct further randomized controlled trials that can be performed in the community in an environmentally sustainable fashion and applied, not only to the elderly, but also to those transitioning to this age group.

Integrating physical and tactical factors in football using positional data: a systematic review.

Background: Positional data have been used to capture physical and tactical factors in football, however current research is now looking to apply spatiotemporal parameters from an integrative perspective. Thus, the aim of this article was to systematically review the published articles that integrate physical and tactical variables in football using positional data. Methods and Materials: Following the Preferred Reporting Item for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA), a systematic search of relevant English-language articles was performed from earliest record to August 2021. The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated using the modified Downs and Black Quality Index (observational and cross-sectional studies) and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database (PEDro) scale (intervention studies). Results: The literature search returned 982 articles (WoS = 495; PubMed = 232 and SportDiscus = 255). After screening, 26 full-text articles met the inclusion criteria and data extraction was conducted. All studies considered the integration of physical and tactical variables in football using positional data (n = 26). Other dimensions were also reported, such as psychophysiological and technical factors, however the results of these approaches were not the focus of the analysis (n = 5). Quasi-experimental approaches considered training sets (n = 20) and match contexts (n = 6). One study analysed both training and play insights. Small sided-games (SSG) were the most common training task formats in the reviewed studies, with only three articles addressing medium-sided (MSG) (n = 1) and large-sided games (LSG) (n = 2), respectively. Conclusions: Among the current systematic review, the physical data can be integrated by player's movement speed. Positional datasets can be computed by spatial movement, complex indexes, playing areas, intra-team and inter-team dyads. Futures researches should consider applying positional data in women's football environments and explore the representativeness of the MSG and LSG.

The Influence of Abdominal Adiposity and Physical Fitness on Obesity Status of Portuguese Adolescents.

The aim of this study was to verify the relationship between abdominal adiposity and physical fitness in the obesity status of Portuguese adolescents. BMI, abdominal adiposity, and physical fitness tests from the FITescola® were evaluated in a total of 654 Portuguese adolescents, aged 10-19 years old-male: n = 334 (51%), female: n = 320 (49%). For the final model, BMI was positively related with age (ß = 0.25), abdominal adiposity (ß = 0.313), horizontal jump (ß = -0.100), 40 m maximal velocity (ß = 0.274), and aerobic fitness (ß = -0.250, R2 = 0.75, F = 382.2, and p = 0.0001). We conclude that higher age and abdominal adiposity are positively related with a higher adolescent BMI. Furthermore, lower horizontal jump distances and worse times on the 40 m maximal velocity were inversely related with a higher adolescent BMI, and lower aerobic fitness was inversely related with a higher adolescent BMI.

Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon.

The Amazon is Brazil's greatest natural resource and invaluable to the rest of the world as a buffer against climate change. The recent election of Brazil's president brought disputes over development plans for the region back into the spotlight. Historically, the development model for the Amazon has focused on exploitation of natural resources, resulting in environmental degradation, particularly deforestation. Although considerable attention has focused on the long-term global cost of "losing the Amazon," too little attention has focused on the emergence and reemergence of vector-borne diseases that directly impact the local population, with spillover effects to other neighboring areas. We discuss the impact of Amazon development models on human health, with a focus on vector-borne disease risk. We outline policy actions that could mitigate these negative impacts while creating opportunities for environmentally sensitive economic activities.

The Urban Gradient in Malaria-Endemic Municipalities in Acre: Revisiting the Role of Locality.

Urbanization has altered the distribution of diseases of public health importance along gradients of human occupation. Adopting dichotomous urban/rural categories to explain differences in the risk of exposure, as well as the prevention of diseases is insufficient. In this paper, we present the potential of representations based on the gradient perspective to characterize the living spaces of municipalities where malaria is endemic in northwest Acre. Inventoried data in 40 localities in the Mâncio Lima and Rodrigues Alves municipalities and information on land use and land cover obtained from the TerraClass Database were used to characterize the urban spatial forms and their social content. Results showed a gradient of intensities: from municipal seats to the most connected localities through the road network to riverine communities. Based on the results, we hope to advance the discussion about the use of normative definitions of “urban” and “rural” for public policies and actions to control and eliminate malaria, considering the position of each locality in its own locally referenced urban gradient.

Os processos de urbanização e conversão florestal na Amazônia paraense ­ um estudo multiescalar / The urbanization and forest conversion processes in the Paraense Amazon ­ a multiescalar study / Los procesos de urbanización y conversión selvática en la Amazonia Paraenanse ­ un estudio multiescalar

Resumo Na Amazônia brasileira, as dinâmicas de urbanização e conversão florestal possuem lógicas complexas, dependentes de fatores e agentes atuando em diferentes escalas. Este artigo explora a evolução espacial e temporal da urbanização e da conversão florestal na Amazônia, a partir de elementos mensuráveis presentes nestes processos: a expansão urbana, dimensão observável dos processos de urbanização; e o desmatamento, uma medida dos processos de conversão florestal. A identificação de padrões espaço-temporais similares, avaliados quanto às tendências de evolução temporal do grau de urbanização e incremento de desmatamento em 2000, 2010 e 2014, foi base para a proposta de uma tipologia das relações entre expansão urbana e desmatamento para os estados da Amazônia Legal e municípios do Pará. O estudo explorou também as relações entre expansão urbana e desmatamento, com uso de regressões geograficamente ponderadas (GWR), observando duas unidades espaciais de análise para o estado do Pará: os limites municipais e uma grade celular (20x20km). Esta abordagem multiescalar evidenciou a dificuldade de se estabelecerem relações conclusivas quanto à co-ocorrência, ou concordância, da evolução dos processos de urbanização e conversão florestal. Os resultados contribuem para o estabelecimento de uma agenda sobre modelos de desenvolvimento regional que retome o urbano como essencial para uma Amazônia socialmente justa e ambientalmente responsável.

Abstract In the Brazilian Amazon, dynamics of urbanization and forest conversion have complex logics, and are dependent on factors and agents operating at different levels. This article explores the spatial and temporal evolution of urbanization and forest conversion in the Amazon region from measurable elements present in these processes: urban expansion, observable dimensions of urbanization processes, and deforestation, a measure of forest conversion processes. The identification of similar spatiotemporal patterns, evaluated according to trends in the evolution of the degree of urbanization and the increase of deforestation in the years 2000, 2010 and 2014, was the basis for proposing a typology of relation between urban expansion and deforestation for the states of the Brazilian Legal Amazon and municipalities of Pará State. The study also explored the relation between urban expansion and deforestation, using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), observing two spatial units of analysis for Pará State: the municipal boundaries and a regular grid (20x20km). This multiscale approach evidenced the difficulty in establishing conclusive relationships regarding co-occurrence, or agreement, between the evolution of urbanization and forest conversion processes. Our results aim to establish an agenda on regional development models which take the urban phenomenon as essential for a socially just and environmentally responsible Amazon.

Resumen En la Amazonia brasileña las dinámicas de urbanización y conversión selvática poseen lógicas complejas que dependen de factores y agentes que actúan en diferentes escalas. Este artículo explora la evolución espacial y temporal de la urbanización y la conversión selvática en la Amazonia a partir de elementos mensurables presentes en estos procesos: la expansión urbana, dimensión observable de los procesos de urbanización, y la deforestación, una medida de los procesos de conversión selvática. La identificación de patrones espaciotemporales similares, evaluados en cuanto a las tendencias de evolución temporal del grado de urbanización y del incremento de deforestación en los años 2000, 2010 y 2014 fueron la base para la propuesta de una tipología de las relaciones entre expansión urbana y deforestación para los municipios del Pará. El estudio exploró también las relaciones entre expansión urbana y deforestación, mediante el uso de la regresión geográficamente ponderada (GWR), observando dos unidades espaciales de análisis para el Pará: los límites municipales y una rejilla con celdas (20x20km). Este enfoque multiescalar evidenció la dificultad para establecer relaciones concluyentes en cuanto a la coocurrencia, o la concordancia, entre los procesos de urbanización y conversión selvática. Los resultados contribuyen al establecimiento de una agenda sobre modelos de desarrollo regional que retome lo urbano como esencial para una Amazonia socialmente justa y ambientalmente responsable.

Demografia, planejamento territorial e a questão habitacional: prognóstico da situação habitacional do Litoral Norte Paulista / Demography, territorial planning and housing: prognosis of the housing situation in the North Coast of São Paulo / Demografía, planificación territorial y vivienda: prognosis de la situación de la vivienda en la Costa Norte de São Paulo

Técnicas de análise demográfica são indispensáveis para o planejamento urbano, pois mudanças nos regimes populacionais se relacionam diretamente à produção e reprodução do espaço nas cidades. A questão habitacional é central nessa relação, já que o ambiente construído é predominantemente composto de residências. Todavia esses temas ainda não têm sido frequentemente abordados de forma conjunta. O objetivo desse artigo é discutir tais relações e mostrar, em um exercício prático de prognóstico para a região do Litoral Norte Paulista, como técnicas de projeção da demanda futura por habitação podem ser úteis às análises territoriais. Observam-se uma tendência de envelhecimento da população e o aumento do número de mulheres nos municípios do Litoral Norte, o que significa que grupos com autonomia para constituir um novo domicílio tendem a aumentar em proporção. Os resultados da projeção da demanda futura por habitação refletem este aumento, que terá influência direta na ocupação do território.

Demographic analysis techniques are indispensable for urban planning because changes in population regimes are directly related to the production and reproduction of space in cities. The housing issue is central in this relationship because the man-made environment is predominantly composed by residences. However, these themes have not been tackled together yet. The objective of this article is to discuss these relationships and to show, in a practical exercise of prognosis for the region of the North Coast of São Paulo, how techniques for projecting future housing demands can be useful for territorial analyzes. There is a trend towards an aging population and an increase in the number of women in these towns, it means that groups that have the autonomy to establish a new home tend to increase in proportion. The results of future demand for housing projections reflect this increase and will have a direct influence on the occupation of the territory.

Las técnicas de análisis demográfico son indispensables para la planificación urbana porque los cambios en los regímenes de población se relacionan directamente con la producción y reproducción del espacio en las ciudades. La vivienda es uma cuestión central en esta relación, ya que el entorno construido está compuesto principalmente por residencias. Sin embargo, estos temas aún no han sido abordados conjuntamente. El objetivo de este artículo es discutir estas relaciones y mostrar, en un ejercicio práctico de pronóstico para la región de la costa norte de São Paulo, cómo las técnicas para proyectar la demanda futura de vivienda pueden ser útiles para los análisis territoriales. Hay una tendencia hacia un envejecimiento de la población y un aumento en el número de mujeres en este tipo de ciudades, lo que significa que grupos que tienen autonomía para establecer un nuevo hogar tienden a aumentar en proporción. Los resultados de la proyección de la demanda futura de vivienda reflejan este aumento, que tendrá una influencia directa en la ocupación del territorio.

An observatory to gather and disseminate information on the health-related effects of environmental and climate change.

This report sought to critically examine proposals, potentials, and challenges of environmental health observatories with an emphasis on climate change processes. A critical review of existing environmental health observatories was performed, examining their purposes, potential audiences, and technological platforms. The implementation of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory (C&HO) is described, and two stages are defined: (i) the requirement analysis and negotiation stage that identified the national and regional institutional players and their roles as data producers/users; and (ii) thematic health-related workshops that reviewed water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, extreme climate events, and health problems derived from forest fires. The C&HO is an example of making information on climate and health available through an Internet site where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. Complex queries are made by users and can be executed over multiple sites, geographically distributed, with all technical details hidden from the end user. At this stage of the C&HO prototype, alongside the queries, users can also produce semi-qualitative graphs and maps. A multi-scale approach was developed using the platform by setting up sentinel sites. Building a successful observatory is a participatory process that involves choosing indicators, data sources, information technology, and languages to best reach different audiences, such as researchers, citizens, public health professionals, and decisionmakers.

An observatory to gather and disseminate information on the health-related effects of environmental and climate change / Un observatorio para recopilar y difundir información sobre los efectos del cambio ambiental y climático relacionados con la salud

This report sought to critically examine proposals, potentials, and challenges of environmental health observatories with an emphasis on climate change processes. A critical review of existing environmental health observatories was performed, examining their purposes, potential audiences, and technological platforms. The implementation of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory (C&HO) is described, and two stages are defined: (i) the requirement analysis and negotiation stage that identified the national and regional institutional players and their roles as data producers/users; and (ii) thematic health-related workshops that reviewed water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, extreme climate events, and health problems derived from forest fires. The C&HO is an example of making information on climate and health available through an Internet site where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. Complex queries are made by users and can be executed over multiple sites, geographically distributed, with all technical details hidden from the end user. At this stage of the C&HO prototype, alongside the queries, users can also produce semi-qualitative graphs and maps. A multi-scale approach was developed using the platform by setting up sentinel sites. Building a successful observatory is a participatory process that involves choosing indicators, data sources, information technology, and languages to best reach different audiences, such as researchers, citizens, public health professionals, and decisionmakers.

Este informe tiene el propósito de examinar críticamente las propuestas, las posibilidades y los retos de los observatorios de salud ambiental con especial interés en los procesos del cambio climático. Se realizó un examen crítico de los observatorios de salud ambiental existentes, para lo cual se evaluó su finalidad, los posibles destinatarios y las plataformas tecnológicas. En este informe se describe la ejecución del Observatorio Nacional de Clima y Salud del Brasil dividida en dos fases: 1) la fase de análisis y negociación de los requisitos, cuyo fin fue definir las instituciones nacionales y regionales que tendrían a su cargo la producción y el aprovechamiento de los datos; y 2) los talleres celebrados sobre temas de salud acerca de las enfermedades relacionadas con el agua, las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores, los acontecimientos climáticos extremos y los problemas de salud derivados de los incendios forestales. El Observatorio es un ejemplo de plataforma de internet que ofrece información y datos sobre el clima y la salud provenientes de diferentes fuentes. Los usuarios pueden plantear consultas complejas en varios sitios, localizados en distintas zonas geográficas y todos los detalles técnicos se mantienen ocultos para el usuario. En esta fase de prototipo del Observatorio es posible generar gráficos y mapas semicualitativos junto a las consultas. Además, la plataforma permitió generar una estrategia de varias escalas a través del establecimiento de centros centinela. La creación de un observatorio eficaz es un proceso participativo que comprende la elección de los indicadores, las fuentes de los datos, la tecnología de la información y los idiomas que serán empleados con el propósito de llegar a diferentes públicos, como investigadores, ciudadanos, profesionales de la salud pública y encargados de adoptar las decisiones.

Characterization of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the dengue vector population established in urban areas of Fernando de Noronha, a Brazilian oceanic island.

Aedes aegypti has played a major role in the dramatic expansion of dengue worldwide. The failure of control programs in reducing the rhythm of global dengue expansion through vector control suggests the need for studies to support more appropriated control strategies. We report here the results of a longitudinal study on Ae. aegypti population dynamics through continuous egg sampling aiming to characterize the infestation of urban areas of a Brazilian oceanic island, Fernando de Noronha. The spatial and temporal distribution of the dengue vector population in urban areas of the island was described using a monitoring system (SMCP-Aedes) based on a 103-trap network for Aedes egg sampling, using GIS and spatial statistics analysis tools. Mean egg densities were estimated over a 29-month period starting in 2011 and producing monthly maps of mosquito abundance. The system detected continuous Ae. aegypti oviposition in most traps. The high global positive ovitrap index (POI=83.7% of 2815 events) indicated the frequent presence of blood-fed-egg laying females at every sampling station. Egg density (eggs/ovitrap/month) reached peak values of 297.3 (0 - 2020) in May and 295 (0 - 2140) in August 2012. The presence of a stable Ae. aegypti population established throughout the inhabited areas of the island was demonstrated. A strong association between egg abundance and rainfall with a 2-month lag was observed, which combined with a first-order autocorrelation observed in the series of egg counts can provide an important forecasting tool. This first description of the characteristics of the island infestation by the dengue vector provides baseline information to analyze relationships between the spatial distribution of the vector and dengue cases, and to the development of integrated vector control strategies.