Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy for primary kidney cancer (TROG 15.03 FASTRACK II): a non-randomised phase 2 trial.

BACKGROUND: Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) is a novel non-invasive alternative for patients with primary renal cell cancer who do not undergo surgical resection. The FASTRACK II clinical trial investigated the efficacy of SABR for primary renal cell cancer in a phase 2 trial. METHODS: This international, non-randomised, phase 2 study was conducted in seven centres in Australia and one centre in the Netherlands. Eligible patients aged 18 years or older had biopsy-confirmed diagnosis of primary renal cell cancer, with only a single lesion; were medically inoperable, were at high risk of complications from surgery, or declined surgery; and had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-2. A multidisciplinary decision that active treatment was warranted was required. Key exclusion criteria were a pre-treatment estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, previous systemic therapies for renal cell cancer, previous high-dose radiotherapy to an overlapping region, tumours larger than 10 cm, and direct contact of the renal cell cancer with the bowel. Patients received either a single fraction SABR of 26 Gy for tumours 4 cm or less in maximum diameter, or 42 Gy in three fractions for tumours more than 4 cm to 10 cm in maximum diameter. The primary endpoint was local control, defined as no progression of the primary renal cell cancer, as evaluated by the investigator per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (version 1.1). Assuming a 1-year local control of 90%, the null hypothesis of 80% or less was considered not to be worthy of proceeding to a future randomised controlled trial. All patients who commenced trial treatment were included in the primary outcome analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02613819, and has completed accrual. FINDINGS: Between July 28, 2016, and Feb 27, 2020, 70 patients were enrolled and initiated treatment. Median age was 77 years (IQR 70-82). Before enrolment, 49 (70%) of 70 patients had documented serial growth on initial surveillance imaging. 49 (70%) of 70 patients were male and 21 (30%) were female. Median tumour size was 4·6 cm (IQR 3·7-5·5). All patients enrolled had T1-T2a and N0-N1 disease. 23 patients received single-fraction SABR of 26 Gy and 47 received 42 Gy in three fractions. Median follow-up was 43 months (IQR 38-60). Local control at 12 months from treatment commencement was 100% (p<0·0001). Seven (10%) patients had grade 3 treatment-related adverse events, with no grade 4 adverse events observed. Grade 3 treatment-related adverse events were nausea and vomiting (three [4%] patients), abdominal, flank, or tumour pain (four [6%]), colonic obstruction (two [3%]), and diarrhoea (one [1%]). No treatment-related or cancer-related deaths occurred. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this is the first multicentre prospective clinical trial of non-surgical definitive therapy in patients with primary renal cell cancer. In a cohort with predominantly T1b or larger disease, SABR was an effective treatment strategy with no observed local failures or cancer-related deaths. We observed an acceptable side-effect profile and renal function after SABR. These outcomes support the design of a future randomised trial of SABR versus surgery for primary renal cell cancer. FUNDING: Cancer Australia Priority-driven Collaborative Cancer Research Scheme.

Mechanistic links between physiology and spectral reflectance enable previsual detection of oak wilt and drought stress.

Tree mortality due to global change-including range expansion of invasive pests and pathogens-is a paramount threat to forest ecosystems. Oak forests are among the most prevalent and valuable ecosystems both ecologically and economically in the United States. There is increasing interest in monitoring oak decline and death due to both drought and the oak wilt pathogen (Bretziella fagacearum). We combined anatomical and ecophysiological measurements with spectroscopy at leaf, canopy, and airborne levels to enable differentiation of oak wilt and drought, and detection prior to visible symptom appearance. We performed an outdoor potted experiment with Quercus rubra saplings subjected to drought stress and/or artificially inoculated with the pathogen. Models developed from spectral reflectance accurately predicted ecophysiological indicators of oak wilt and drought decline in both potted and field experiments with naturally grown saplings. Both oak wilt and drought resulted in blocked water transport through xylem conduits. However, oak wilt impaired conduits in localized regions of the xylem due to formation of tyloses instead of emboli. The localized tylose formation resulted in more variable canopy photosynthesis and water content in diseased trees than drought-stressed ones. Reflectance signatures of plant photosynthesis, water content, and cellular damage detected oak wilt and drought 12 d before visual symptoms appeared. Our results show that leaf spectral reflectance models predict ecophysiological processes relevant to detection and differentiation of disease and drought. Coupling spectral models that detect physiological change with spatial information enhances capacity to differentiate plant stress types such as oak wilt and drought.

Impact on Pulmonary Function in a Randomized Trial of Single-Fraction and Multifraction Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Pulmonary Oligometastatic Disease: An Analysis of TROG 13.01 (SAFRON II).

PURPOSE: The TROG 13.01 (SAFRON II) trial was a phase 2 multicenter trial comparing single-fraction (SF) and multifraction (MF) stereotactic body radiation therapy. Patients with 1 to 3 peripheral pulmonary oligometastases were randomized 1:1 between 28 Gy in 1 fraction and 48 Gy in 4 fractions. There were no differences between arms in efficacy or toxicity. We performed an analysis to assess changes in pulmonary function tests (PFTs) between arms over time and assessed the effect of the number and total volume of targets on PFT change over time. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A linear mixed model was used to describe the PFTs by treatment arm over time. The effect of number and volume of targets on PFTs at 6 and 12 months was assessed by a simple linear model. RESULTS: Ninety patients were randomized; 87 were treated for 133 pulmonary oligometastases. Forty-four were randomized to the SF arm and 43 to the MF arm. There were no differences in absolute or relative PFT measures of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO), or forced vital capacity (FVC) between the 2 arms. At 12 months, there was a reduction in absolute DLCO from baseline (-1.7 mL/min/mm Hg [95% CI, -2.5 to -1.0]), relative DLCO (-5.5% [95% CI, -8.4% to -2.6%]), absolute FEV1 (-0.17 L [95% CI, -0.23 to -0.11]), and absolute FVC (-0.20 L [95% CI, -0.27 to -0.13]). In patients with multiple pulmonary targets, increase in target number (per lesion) was associated with a reduction in the absolute FEV1 at 6 months of -0.10 L (95% CI, -0.18 to -0.03; P = .007), FEV1 at 12 months of -0.10 L (95% CI, -0.20 to -0.01; P = .04), FVC at 6 months of -0.11 L (95% CI, -0.20 to -0.03; P = .014), and FVC at 24 months of -0.13 L (95% CI, -0.25 to -0.01; P = .036). Reduction in FEV1 was also seen per 10-mL increase in PTV at 12 months (-0.03 L [95% CI, -0.06 to -0.00], P = .036). The number of targets and PTV were not associated with DLCO. CONCLUSIONS: Treating multiple targets resulted in increased loss of FEV1 and FVC but not DLCO. There were no significant differences in PFT decline between SF and MF stereotactic body radiation therapy.

Boreal conifers maintain carbon uptake with warming despite failure to track optimal temperatures.

Warming shifts the thermal optimum of net photosynthesis (ToptA) to higher temperatures. However, our knowledge of this shift is mainly derived from seedlings grown in greenhouses under ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) conditions. It is unclear whether shifts in ToptA of field-grown trees will keep pace with the temperatures predicted for the 21st century under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here, using a whole-ecosystem warming controlled experiment under either ambient or elevated CO2 levels, we show that ToptA of mature boreal conifers increased with warming. However, shifts in ToptA did not keep pace with warming as ToptA only increased by 0.26-0.35 °C per 1 °C of warming. Net photosynthetic rates estimated at the mean growth temperature increased with warming in elevated CO2 spruce, while remaining constant in ambient CO2 spruce and in both ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 tamarack with warming. Although shifts in ToptA of these two species are insufficient to keep pace with warming, these boreal conifers can thermally acclimate photosynthesis to maintain carbon uptake in future air temperatures.

Climate change-induced stress disrupts ectomycorrhizal interaction networks at the boreal-temperate ecotone.

The interaction networks formed by ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF) and their tree hosts, which are important to both forest recruitment and ecosystem carbon and nutrient retention, may be particularly susceptible to climate change at the boreal-temperate forest ecotone where environmental conditions are changing rapidly. Here, we quantified the compositional and functional trait responses of EMF communities and their interaction networks with two boreal (Pinus banksiana and Betula papyrifera) and two temperate (Pinus strobus and Quercus macrocarpa) hosts to a factorial combination of experimentally elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall in a long-term open-air field experiment. The study was conducted at the B4WarmED (Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger) experiment in Minnesota, USA, where infrared lamps and buried heating cables elevate temperatures (ambient, +3.1 °C) and rain-out shelters reduce growing season precipitation (ambient, ~30% reduction). EMF communities were characterized and interaction networks inferred from metabarcoding of fungal-colonized root tips. Warming and rainfall reduction significantly altered EMF community composition, leading to an increase in the relative abundance of EMF with contact-short distance exploration types. These compositional changes, which likely limited the capacity for mycelial connections between trees, corresponded with shifts from highly redundant EMF interaction networks under ambient conditions to less redundant (more specialized) networks. Further, the observed changes in EMF communities and interaction networks were correlated with changes in soil moisture and host photosynthesis. Collectively, these results indicate that the projected changes in climate will likely lead to significant shifts in the traits, structure, and integrity of EMF communities as well as their interaction networks in forest ecosystems at the boreal-temperate ecotone.

Characteristics of chief investigators and principal investigators in Australian and New Zealand radiation oncology clinical trials.

INTRODUCTION: Globally, the research community is coming to realise the need for diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) amongst research teams and leadership. Diverse teams reduce homogeneous 'group think', propagate innovation, propound support for broader more representative research and facilitate the recruitment of patients from diverse backgrounds. Given the above, this study aims to retrospectively examine the characteristics of chief investigators (CI) and principal investigators (PI) in past and present Australian and New Zealand radiation oncology clinical trials. METHODS: Data on CI and PI characteristics were attained from the Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group (TROG) website as well as archived master database files provided by the TROG Scientific Committee. Data included CI and PI discipline, clinical trial activation date, institution type (private vs. public) and geographical location if in Australia. Australian and New Zealand health practitioner registration agency websites were used to determine the registered sex of the CIs and PIs and their years of experience. RESULTS: One hundred and twenty TROG clinical trials have been initiated by 134 CIs from 1989 to 2022 and 463 TROG clinical trials have been opened by 465 PIs at their respective institutions from 2000 to 2022. Most TROG trial investigators have been radiation oncologists and those with over 10 years of experience. Only one in five trials and one in three trials have been led by female PIs and CIs, respectively. Investigators have largely been affiliated with public institutions, with only one in 100 CIs and one in eight PIs being affiliated with the private sector. TROG members from regional and rural areas in Australia have not been engaged as investigators, with all CIs and most PIs affiliated with metropolitan institutions. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the gaps in diversity amongst CIs and PIs in TROG clinical trials. Further unpacking and understanding of issues related to CI and PI diversity are important to inform initiatives to improve researcher, leadership and patient diversity in future TROG clinical trials.

Long-Term Outcomes of TROG 13.01 SAFRON II Randomized Trial of Single- Versus Multifraction Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiotherapy for Pulmonary Oligometastases.

Clinical trials frequently include multiple end points that mature at different times. The initial report, typically based on the primary end point, may be published when key planned co-primary or secondary analyses are not yet available. Clinical Trial Updates provide an opportunity to disseminate additional results from studies, published in JCO or elsewhere, for which the primary end point has already been reported.In a randomized phase II clinical trial, the Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group compared single- versus multifraction stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) in 90 patients with 133 oligometastases to the lung. The study found no differences in safety, efficacy, systemic immunogenicity, or survival between arms, with single-fraction SABR picked as the winner on the basis of cost-effectiveness. In this article, we report the final updated survival outcome analysis. The protocol mandated no concurrent or post-therapy systemic therapy until progression. Modified disease-free survival (mDFS) was defined as any progression not addressable by local therapy, or death. At a median follow-up of 5.4 years, the 3- and 5-year estimates for overall survival (OS) were 70% (95% CI, 59 to 78) and 51% (95% CI, 39 to 61). There were no significant differences between the multi- and single-fraction arms for OS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.1 [95% CI, 0.6 to 2.0]; P = .81). The 3- and 5-year estimates for disease-free survival were 24% (95% CI, 16 to 33) and 20% (95% CI, 13 to 29), with no differences between arms (HR, 1.0 [95% CI, 0.6 to 1.6]; P = .92). The 3- and 5-year estimates for mDFS were 39% (95% CI, 29 to 49) and 34% (95% CI, 24 to 44), with no differences between arms (HR, 1.0 [95% CI, 0.6 to 1.8]; P = .90). In this patient population, where patients receive SABR in lieu of systemic therapy, one-in-three patients are alive without disease in the long term. There were no differences in outcomes by fractionation schedule.

Stomatal behaviour moderates the water cost of CO2 acquisition for 21 boreal and temperate species under experimental climate change.

The linkage of stomatal behaviour with photosynthesis is critical to understanding water and carbon cycles under global change. The relationship of stomatal conductance (gs ) and CO2 assimilation (Anet ) across a range of environmental contexts, as represented in the model parameter (g1 ), has served as a proxy of the marginal water cost of carbon acquisition. We use g1 to assess species differences in stomatal behaviour to a decade of open-air experimental climate change manipulations, asking whether generalisable patterns exist across species and climate contexts. Anet -gs measurements (17 727) for 21 boreal and temperate tree species under ambient and +3.3°C warming, and ambient and ~40% summer rainfall reduction, provided >2700 estimates of g1 . Warming and/or reduced rainfall treatments both lowered g1 because those treatments resulted in lower soil moisture and because stomatal behaviour changed more in warming when soil moisture was low. Species tended to respond similarly, although, in species from warmer and drier habitats, g1 tended to be slightly higher and to be the least sensitive to the decrease in soil water. Overall, both warming and rainfall reduction consistently made stomatal behaviour more conservative in terms of water loss per unit carbon gain across 21 species and a decade of experimental observation.

Cost-Effectiveness of Single Versus Multifraction SABR for Pulmonary Oligometastases: The SAFRON II Trial.

PURPOSE: The use of stereotactic ablative body radiation therapy (SABR) in advanced cancer care is increasing, yet the cost-effectiveness of single-fraction (SF) versus multifraction (MF) SABR in pulmonary oligometastases is unknown. METHODS: A prespecified cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted of the Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 13.01 - SAFRON II - randomized trial comparing SF with MF SABR in 87 patients with 133 pulmonary oligometastases. A partitioned survival model assessed costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) over the within-trial period (4 years) and longer-term (10 years). Costs reflected a societal perspective, expressed in Australian dollars (A$) using 2020 prices and were estimated using patient level data on health care utilization for radiation therapy (including patient time), post-radiation systemic therapy and treatment of adverse effects. Quality of life was assessed using the EuroQoL EQ-5D-5L. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was expressed as the cost per QALY gained for SF versus MF SABR, with uncertainty assessed using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: SF cost less than MF for initial therapy (difference of A$1194/patient). Mean time to initiation of systemic drug therapy did not differ between arms (P = .94). Numerical differences in survival favoring SF resulted in greater overall health care use for the within-trial period. The within-trial ICER was A$15,821/QALY and A$23,265/QALY over the longer term. Results were most sensitive to the cost of postprogression therapies and utility values. The sensitivity analysis indicated that SF SABR has a 97% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of A$50,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: SF has lower initial costs and is highly likely to be cost-effective. Time to initiation of systemic therapy associated with disease progression is highly patient relevant and is a major driver of cost-effectiveness. Comparisons for SF SABR with nonradiation therapy approaches to the treatment of pulmonary oligometastases warrant further investigation.

Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests.

The sensitivity of forests to near-term warming and associated precipitation shifts remains uncertain1-9. Herein, using a 5-year open-air experiment in southern boreal forest, we show divergent responses to modest climate alteration among juveniles of nine co-occurring North American tree species. Warming alone (+1.6 °C or +3.1 °C above ambient temperature) or combined with reduced rainfall increased the juvenile mortality of all species, especially boreal conifers. Species differed in growth responses to warming, ranging from enhanced growth in Acer rubrum and Acer saccharum to severe growth reductions in Abies balsamea, Picea glauca and Pinus strobus. Moreover, treatment-induced changes in both photosynthesis and growth help explain treatment-driven changes in survival. Treatments in which species experienced conditions warmer or drier than at their range margins resulted in the most adverse impacts on growth and survival. Species abundant in southern boreal forests had the largest reductions in growth and survival due to climate manipulations. By contrast, temperate species that experienced little mortality and substantial growth enhancement in response to warming are rare throughout southern boreal forest and unlikely to rapidly expand their density and distribution. Therefore, projected climate change will probably cause regeneration failure of currently dominant southern boreal species and, coupled with their slow replacement by temperate species, lead to tree regeneration shortfalls with potential adverse impacts on the health, diversity and ecosystem services of regional forests.

Single-Fraction vs Multifraction Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiotherapy for Pulmonary Oligometastases (SAFRON II): The Trans Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 13.01 Phase 2 Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Evidence is lacking from randomized clinical trials to guide the optimal approach for stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) in patients with pulmonary oligometastases. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether single-fraction or multifraction SABR is more effective for the treatment of patients with pulmonary oligometastases. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multicenter, unblinded, phase 2 randomized clinical trial of 90 patients across 13 centers in Australia and New Zealand enrolled patients with 1 to 3 lung oligometastases less than or equal to 5 cm from any nonhematologic malignant tumors located away from the central airways, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 or 1, and all primary and extrathoracic disease controlled with local therapy. Enrollment was from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018, with a minimum patient follow-up of 2 years. INTERVENTIONS: Single fraction of 28 Gy (single-fraction arm) or 4 fractions of 12 Gy (multifraction arm) to each oligometastasis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The main outcome was grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events (AEs) occurring within 1 year of SABR. Secondary outcomes were freedom from local failure, overall survival, disease-free survival, and patient-reported outcomes (MD Anderson Symptom Inventory-Lung Cancer and EuroQol 5-dimension visual analog scale). RESULTS: Ninety participants were randomized, of whom 87 were treated for 133 pulmonary oligometastases. The mean (SD) age was 66.6 [11.6] years; 58 (64%) were male. Median follow-up was 36.5 months (interquartile range, 24.8-43.9 months). The numbers of grade 3 or higher AEs related to treatment at 1 year were 2 (5%; 80% CI, 1%-13%) in the single-fraction arm and 1 (3%; 80% CI, 0%-10%) in the multifraction arm, with no significant difference observed between arms. One grade 5 AE occurred in the multifraction arm. No significant differences were found between the multifraction arm and single-fraction arm for freedom from local failure (hazard ratio [HR], 0.5; 95% CI, 0.2-1.3; P = .13), overall survival (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.6-3.7; P = .44), or disease-free survival (HR, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.6-1.6; P > .99). There were no significant differences observed in patient-reported outcomes. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this randomized clinical trial, neither arm demonstrated evidence of superior safety, efficacy, or symptom burden; however, single-fraction SABR is more efficient to deliver. Therefore, single-fraction SABR, as assessed by the most acceptable outcome profile from all end points, could be chosen to escalate to future studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01965223.

Assessing the relevant time frame for temperature acclimation of leaf dark respiration: A test with 10 boreal and temperate species.

Plants often adjust their leaf mitochondrial ("dark") respiration (Rd ) measured at a standardized temperature such as 20°C (R20 ) downward after experiencing warmer temperatures and upward after experiencing cooler temperatures. These responses may help leaves maintain advantageous photosynthetic capacity and/or be a response to recent photosynthate accumulation, and can occur within days after a change in thermal regime. It is not clear, however, how the sensitivity and magnitude of this response change over time, or which time period prior to a given measurement best predicts R20 . Nor is it known whether nighttime, daytime, or 24-hour temperatures should be most influential. To address these issues, we used data from 1620 Rd temperature response curves of 10 temperate and boreal tree species in a long-term field experiment in Minnesota, USA to assess how the observed nearly complete acclimation of R20 was related to past temperatures during periods of differing lengths. We hypothesized that R20 would be best related to prior midday temperatures associated with both photosynthetic biochemistry and peak carbon uptake rates that drive carbohydrate accumulation. Inconsistent with this hypothesis, prior night temperatures were the best predictors of R20 for all species. We had also hypothesized that recent (prior 3-10 days) temperatures should best predict R20 because they likely have stronger residual impacts on leaf-level physiology than periods extending further back in time, whereas a prior 1- to 2-day period might be a span shorter than one to which photosynthetic capacity and Rd adjust. There was little to no support for this idea, as for angiosperms, long time windows (prior 30-60 nights) were the best predictors, while for gymnosperms both near-term (prior 3-8 nights for pines, prior 10-14 nights for spruce/fir) and longer-term periods (prior 45 nights) were the best predictors. The importance of nighttime temperatures, the relatively long "time-averaging" that best explained acclimation, and dual peaks of temporal acclimation responsiveness in some species were all results that were unanticipated.

Disease and fire interact to influence transitions between savanna-forest ecosystems over a multi-decadal experiment.

Global change is shifting disturbance regimes that may rapidly change ecosystems, sometimes causing ecosystems to shift between states. Interactions between disturbances such as fire and disease could have especially severe effects, but experimental tests of multi-decadal changes in disturbance regimes are rare. Here, we surveyed vegetation for 35 years in a 54-year fire frequency experiment in a temperate oak savanna-forest ecotone that experienced a recent outbreak of oak wilt. Different fire regimes determined whether plots were savanna or forest by regulating tree abundance (r2  = 0.70), but disease rapidly reversed the effect of fire exclusion, increasing mortality by 765% in unburned forests, but causing relatively minor changes in frequently burned savannas. Model simulations demonstrated that disease caused unburned forests to transition towards a unique woodland that was prone to transition to savanna if fire was reintroduced. Consequently, disease-fire interactions could shift ecosystem resilience and biome boundaries as pathogen distributions change.

Short- and long-term responses of photosynthetic capacity to temperature in four boreal tree species in a free-air warming and rainfall manipulation experiment.

High latitude forests cope with considerable variation in moisture and temperature at multiple temporal scales. To assess how their photosynthetic physiology responds to short- and long-term temperature variation, we measured photosynthetic capacity for four tree species growing in an open-air experiment in the boreal-temperate ecotone `Boreal Forest Warming at an Ecotone in Danger' (B4WarmED). The experiment factorially manipulated temperature above- and below-ground (ambient, +3.2 °C) and summer rainfall (ambient, 40% removal). We measured A/Ci curves at 18, 25 and 32 °C for individuals of two boreal (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Betula papyrifera Marsh.) and two temperate species (Pinus strobus L., Acer rubrum L.) experiencing the long-term warming and/or reduced-rainfall conditions induced by our experimental treatments. We calculated the apparent photosynthetic capacity descriptors VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci and their ratio for each measurement temperate. We hypothesized that (i) VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci would be down-regulated in plants experiencing longer term (e.g., weeks to months) warming and reduced rainfall (i.e., have lower values at a given measurement temperature), as is sometimes found in the literature, and that (ii) plants growing at warmer temperatures or from warmer ranges would show greater sensitivity (steeper slope) to short-term (minutes to hours) temperature variation. Neither hypothesis was supported as a general trend across the four species, as there was not a significant main effect (across species) of either warming or rainfall reduction on VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci. All species markedly increased VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci (and decreased their ratio) with short-term increases in temperature (i.e., contrasting values at 18, 25 and 32 °C), and those responses were independent of long-term treatments and did not differ among species. The Jmax,Ci:VCmax,Ci ratio was, however, significantly lower across species in warmed and reduced rainfall treatments. Collectively, these results suggest that boreal trees possess considerable short-term plasticity that may allow homeostasis of VCmax,Ci and Jmax,Ci to a longer term temperature treatment. Our results also caution against extrapolating results obtained under controlled and markedly contrasting temperature treatments to responses of photosynthetic parameters to more modest temperature changes expected in the near-term with climate warming in field conditions.

Species-specific flowering phenology responses to experimental warming and drought alter herbaceous plant species overlap in a temperate-boreal forest community.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns are expected to continue to occur as the climate changes. How these changes will impact the flowering phenology of herbaceous perennials in northern forests is poorly understood but could have consequences for forest functioning and species interactions. Here, we examine the flowering phenology responses of five herbaceous perennials to experimental warming and reduced summer rainfall over 3 years. METHODS: This study is part of the B4WarmED experiment located at two sites in northern Minnesota, USA. Three levels of warming (ambient, +1.6 °C and +3.1 °C) were crossed with two rainfall manipulations (ambient and 27 % reduced growing season rainfall). KEY RESULTS: We observed species-specific responses to the experimental treatments. Warming alone advanced flowering for four species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species showed the strongest advance of flowering to warming. Reduced rainfall alone advanced flowering for one autumn blooming species and delayed flowering for the other, with no significant impact on the three early blooming species. Only one species, Solidago spp., showed an interactive response to warming and rainfall manipulation by advancing in +1.6 °C warming (regardless of rainfall manipulation) but not advancing in the warmest, driest treatment. Species-specific responses led to changes in temporal overlap between species. Most notably, the two autumn blooming species diverged significantly in their flowering timing. In ambient conditions, these two species flowered within the same week. In the warmest, driest treatment, flowering occurred over a month apart. CONCLUSIONS: Herbaceous species may differ in how they respond to future climate conditions. Changes to phenology may lead to fewer resources for insects or a mismatch between plants and pollinators.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range.

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Spectral differentiation of oak wilt from foliar fungal disease and drought is correlated with physiological changes.

Hyperspectral reflectance tools have been used to detect multiple pathogens in agricultural settings and single sources of infection or broad declines in forest stands. However, differentiation of any one disease from other sources of tree stress is integral for stand and landscape-level applications in mixed species systems. We tested the ability of spectral models to differentiate oak wilt, a fatal disease in oaks caused by Bretziella fagacearum ``Bretz'', from among other mechanisms of decline. We subjected greenhouse-grown oak seedlings (Quercus ellipsoidalis ``E.J. Hill'' and Quercus macrocarpa ``Michx.'') to chronic drought or inoculation with the oak wilt fungus or bur oak blight fungus (Tubakia iowensis ``T.C. Harr. & D. McNew''). We measured leaf and canopy spectroscopic reflectance (400-2400 nm) and instantaneous photosynthetic and stomatal conductance rates, then used partial least-squares discriminant analysis to predict treatment from hyperspectral data. We detected oak wilt before symptom appearance, and classified the disease with high accuracy in symptomatic leaves. Classification accuracy from spectra increased with declines in photosynthetic function in oak wilt-inoculated plants. Wavelengths diagnostic of oak wilt were only found in non-visible spectral regions and are associated with water status, non-structural carbohydrates and photosynthetic mechanisms. We show that hyperspectral models can differentiate oak wilt from other causes of tree decline and that detection is correlated with biological mechanisms of oak wilt infection and disease progression. We also show that within the canopy, symptom heterogeneity can reduce detection, but that symptomatic leaves and tree canopies are suitable for highly accurate diagnosis. Remote application of hyperspectral tools can be used for specific detection of disease across a multi-species forest stand exhibiting multiple stress symptoms.

Surprising lack of sensitivity of biochemical limitation of photosynthesis of nine tree species to open-air experimental warming and reduced rainfall in a southern boreal forest.

Photosynthetic biochemical limitation parameters (i.e., Vcmax , Jmax and Jmax :Vcmax ratio) are sensitive to temperature and water availability, but whether these parameters in cold climate species at biome ecotones are positively or negatively influenced by projected changes in global temperature and water availability remains uncertain. Prior exploration of this question has largely involved greenhouse based short-term manipulative studies with mixed results in terms of direction and magnitude of responses. To address this question in a more realistic context, we examined the effects of increased temperature and rainfall reduction on the biochemical limitations of photosynthesis using a long-term chamber-less manipulative experiment located in northern Minnesota, USA. Nine tree species from the boreal-temperate ecotone were grown in natural neighborhoods under ambient and elevated (+3.4°C) growing season temperatures and ambient or reduced (≈40% of rainfall removed) summer rainfall. Apparent rubisco carboxylation and RuBP regeneration standardized to 25°C (Vcmax25°C and Jmax25°C , respectively) were estimated based on ACi curves measured in situ over three growing seasons. Our primary objective was to test whether species would downregulate Vcmax25°C and Jmax25°C in response to warming and reduced rainfall, with such responses expected to be greatest in species with the coldest and most humid native ranges, respectively. These hypotheses were not supported, as there were no overall main treatment effects on Vcmax25°C or Jmax25°C (p > .14). However, Jmax :Vcmax ratio decreased significantly with warming (p = .0178), whereas interactions between warming and rainfall reduction on the Jmax25°C to Vcmax25°C ratio were not significant. The insensitivity of photosynthetic parameters to warming contrasts with many prior studies done under larger temperature differentials and often fixed daytime temperatures. In sum, plants growing in relatively realistic conditions under naturally varying temperatures and soil moisture levels were remarkably insensitive in terms of their Jmax25°C and Vcmax25°C when grown at elevated temperatures, reduced rainfall, or both combined.

The response of boreal peatland community composition and NDVI to hydrologic change, warming, and elevated carbon dioxide.

Widespread changes in arctic and boreal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values captured by satellite platforms indicate that northern ecosystems are experiencing rapid ecological change in response to climate warming. Increasing temperatures and altered hydrology are driving shifts in ecosystem biophysical properties that, observed by satellites, manifest as long-term changes in regional NDVI. In an effort to examine the underlying ecological drivers of these changes, we used field-scale remote sensing of NDVI to track peatland vegetation in experiments that manipulated hydrology, temperature, and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels. In addition to NDVI, we measured percent cover by species and leaf area index (LAI). We monitored two peatland types broadly representative of the boreal region. One site was a rich fen located near Fairbanks, Alaska, at the Alaska Peatland Experiment (APEX), and the second site was a nutrient-poor bog located in Northern Minnesota within the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment. We found that NDVI decreased with long-term reductions in soil moisture at the APEX site, coincident with a decrease in photosynthetic leaf area and the relative abundance of sedges. We observed increasing NDVI with elevated temperature at the SPRUCE site, associated with an increase in the relative abundance of shrubs and a decrease in forb cover. Warming treatments at the SPRUCE site also led to increases in the LAI of the shrub layer. We found no strong effects of elevated CO2 on community composition. Our findings support recent studies suggesting that changes in NDVI observed from satellite platforms may be the result of changes in community composition and ecosystem structure in response to climate warming.

Effects of climate warming on photosynthesis in boreal tree species depend on soil moisture.

Climate warming will influence photosynthesis via thermal effects and by altering soil moisture1-11. Both effects may be important for the vast areas of global forests that fluctuate between periods when cool temperatures limit photosynthesis and periods when soil moisture may be limiting to carbon gain4-6,9-11. Here we show that the effects of climate warming flip from positive to negative as southern boreal forests transition from rainy to modestly dry periods during the growing season. In a three-year open-air warming experiment with juveniles of 11 temperate and boreal tree species, an increase of 3.4 °C in temperature increased light-saturated net photosynthesis and leaf diffusive conductance on average on the one-third of days with the wettest soils. In all 11 species, leaf diffusive conductance and, as a result, light-saturated net photosynthesis decreased during dry spells, and did so more sharply in warmed plants than in plants at ambient temperatures. Consequently, across the 11 species, warming reduced light-saturated net photosynthesis on the two-thirds of days with driest soils. Thus, low soil moisture may reduce, or even reverse, the potential benefits of climate warming on photosynthesis in mesic, seasonally cold environments, both during drought and in regularly occurring, modestly dry periods during the growing season.