Relationship between multimorbidity, functional limitation, and quality of life among middle-aged and older adults: findings from the longitudinal analysis of the 2013-2020 Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE).

PURPOSE: The increased burden of multimorbidity is restricting individuals' ability to live autonomously, leading to a poorer quality of life. This study estimated trajectories of functional limitation and quality of life among middle-aged (ages 50 to 64 years) and older (aged 65 years and older) individuals with and without multimorbidity. We also assessed differences in the relationship between these two trajectories by multimorbidity status and separately for each age cohort. METHODS: Data originated from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). In Luxembourg, data were obtained between 2013 and 2020, involving 1,585 respondents ≥ 50 years of age. Multimorbidity was defined as a self-reported diagnosis of two or more out of 16 chronic conditions; functional limitation was assessed by a combined (Instrumental) Activities of Daily Living (ADL/IADLI) scale; and to measure quality of life, we used the Control, Autonomy, Self-Realization, and Pleasure (CASP-12) scale. Latent growth curve modelling techniques were used to conduct the analysis where repeated measures of quality of life and functional limitation were treated as continuous and zero-inflated count variables, respectively. The model was assessed separately in each age cohort, controlling for the baseline covariates, and the estimates from the two cohorts were presented as components of a synthetic cohort covering the life course from the age of 50. RESULTS: Middle-aged and older adults living with multimorbidity experienced poorer quality of life throughout the life course and were at a higher risk of functional limitation than those without multimorbidity. At baseline, functional limitation had a negative impact on quality of life. Furthermore, among middle-aged adults without multimorbidity and older adults with multimorbidity, an increase in the number of functional limitations led to a decline in quality of life. These results imply that the impact of multimorbidity on functional limitation and quality of life may vary across the life course. CONCLUSION: Using novel methodological techniques, this study contributes to a better understanding of the longitudinal relationship between functional limitation and quality of life among individuals with and without multimorbidity and how this relationship changes across the life course. Our findings suggest that lowering the risk of having multimorbidity can decrease functional limitation and increase quality of life.

Exploring the association between primary care efficiency and health system characteristics across European countries: a two-stage data envelopment analysis.

BACKGROUND: Primary care is widely seen as a core component of resilient and sustainable health systems, yet its efficiency is not well understood and there is a lack of evidence about how primary care efficiency is associated with health system characteristics. We examine this issue through the lens of diabetes care, which has a well-established evidence base for effective treatment and has previously been used as a tracer condition to measure health system performance. METHODS: We developed a conceptual framework to guide the analysis of primary care efficiency. Using data on 18 European countries during 2010-2016 from several international databases, we applied a two-stage data envelopment analysis to estimate (i) technical efficiency of primary care and (ii) the association between efficiency and health system characteristics. RESULTS: Countries varied widely in terms of primary care efficiency, with efficiency scores depending on the range of population characteristics adjusted for. Higher efficiency was associated with bonus payments for the prevention and management of chronic conditions, nurse-led follow-up, and a financial incentive or requirement for patients to obtain a referral to specialist care. Conversely, lower efficiency was associated with higher rates of curative care beds and financial incentives for patients to register with a primary care provider. CONCLUSIONS: Our results underline the importance of considering differences in population characteristics when comparing country performance on primary care efficiency. We highlight several policies that could enhance the efficiency of primary care. Improvements in data collection would enable more comprehensive assessments of primary care efficiency across countries, which in turn could more effectively inform policymaking.

The role of multimorbidity and socio-economic characteristics as potential risk factors for Long Covid: evidence from the multilevel analysis of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe's corona surveys (2020-2021).

BACKGROUND: A substantial proportion of individuals continue experiencing persistent symptoms following the acute stage of their Covid-19 illness. However, there is a shortage of population-based studies on Long Covid risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of Long Covid in the population of middle-aged and older Europeans having contracted Covid-19 and to assess the role of multimorbidity and socio-economic characteristics as potential risk factors of Long Covid. METHODS: A population-based longitudinal prospective study involving a sample of respondents 50 years and older (n = 4,004) from 27 countries who participated in the 2020 and 2021 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), in particular the Corona Surveys. Analyses were conducted by a multilevel (random intercept) hurdle negative binomial model. RESULTS: Overall, 71.6% (95% confidence interval = 70.2-73.0%) of the individuals who contracted Covid-19 had at least one symptom of Long Covid up to 12 months after the infection, with an average of 3.06 (standard deviation = 1.88) symptoms. There were significant cross-country differences in the prevalence of Long Covid and number of symptoms. Higher education and being a man were associated with a lower risk of Long Covid, whilst being employed was associated with a higher risk of having Long Covid. Multimorbidity was associated with a higher number of symptoms and older age was associated with a lower number of symptoms. CONCLUSION: Our results provide evidence on the substantial burden of Long Covid in Europe. Individuals who contracted Covid-19 may require long-term support or further medical intervention, putting additional pressure on national health care systems.

Machine learning for predicting neurodegenerative diseases in the general older population: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: In the older general population, neurodegenerative diseases (NDs) are associated with increased disability, decreased physical and cognitive function. Detecting risk factors can help implement prevention measures. Using deep neural networks (DNNs), a machine-learning algorithm could be an alternative to Cox regression in tabular datasets with many predictive features. We aimed to compare the performance of different types of DNNs with regularized Cox proportional hazards models to predict NDs in the older general population. METHODS: We performed a longitudinal analysis with participants of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. We included men and women with no NDs at baseline, aged 60 years and older, assessed every 2 years from 2004 to 2005 (wave2) to 2016-2017 (wave 8). The features were a set of 91 epidemiological and clinical baseline variables. The outcome was new events of Parkinson's, Alzheimer or dementia. After applying multiple imputations, we trained three DNN algorithms: Feedforward, TabTransformer, and Dense Convolutional (Densenet). In addition, we trained two algorithms based on Cox models: Elastic Net regularization (CoxEn) and selected features (CoxSf). RESULTS: 5433 participants were included in wave 2. During follow-up, 12.7% participants developed NDs. Although the five models predicted NDs events, the discriminative ability was superior using TabTransformer (Uno's C-statistic (coefficient (95% confidence intervals)) 0.757 (0.702, 0.805). TabTransformer showed superior time-dependent balanced accuracy (0.834 (0.779, 0.889)) and specificity (0.855 (0.0.773, 0.909)) than the other models. With the CoxSf (hazard ratio (95% confidence intervals)), age (10.0 (6.9, 14.7)), poor hearing (1.3 (1.1, 1.5)) and weight loss 1.3 (1.1, 1.6)) were associated with a higher DNN risk. In contrast, executive function (0.3 (0.2, 0.6)), memory (0, 0, 0.1)), increased gait speed (0.2, (0.1, 0.4)), vigorous physical activity (0.7, 0.6, 0.9)) and higher BMI (0.4 (0.2, 0.8)) were associated with a lower DNN risk. CONCLUSION: TabTransformer is promising for prediction of NDs with heterogeneous tabular datasets with numerous features. Moreover, it can handle censored data. However, Cox models perform well and are easier to interpret than DNNs. Therefore, they are still a good choice for NDs.

Does the definition of preventable emergency department visit matter? An empirical analysis using 20 million visits in Ontario and Alberta.

OBJECTIVES: This study had two objectives: (1) to estimate the prevalence of preventable emergency department (ED) visits during the 2016-2020 time period among those living in 19 large urban centers in Alberta and Ontario, Canada, and (2) to assess if the definition of preventable ED visits matters in estimating the prevalence. METHODS: A retrospective, population-based study of ED visits that were reported to the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System from April 1, 2016, to March 31, 2020, was conducted. Preventable ED visits were operationalized based on the following approaches: (1) Canadian Triage and Acuity Scale (CTAS), (2) ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSC), (3) family practice-sensitive conditions (FPSC), and (4) sentinel nonurgent conditions (SNC). The overall proportion of ED visits that were preventable was estimated. We also estimated the adjusted relative risks of preventable ED visits by patients' sex and age, fiscal year, province of residence, and census metropolitan area (CMA) of residence. RESULTS: There were 20,171,319 ED visits made by 8,919,618 patients ages 1 to 74 who resided in one of the 19 CMAs in Alberta or Ontario. On average, there were 2.26 visits per patient over the period of 4 fiscal years; most patients made one (44.22%) or two ED visits (20.72%). The overall unadjusted prevalence of preventable ED visits varied by definition; 35.33% of ED visits were defined as preventable based on CTAS, 12.88% based on FPSC, 3.41% based on SNC, and 2.33% based on ACSC. CONCLUSIONS: There is a substantial level of variation in prevalence estimates across definitions of preventable ED visits, and care should be taken when interpreting these estimates as each has a different meaning and may lead to different conclusions. The conceptualization and measurement of preventable ED visits is complex and multifaceted and may not be adequately captured by a single definition.

Investigating unmet need for healthcare using the European Health Interview Survey: a cross-sectional survey study of Luxembourg.

OBJECTIVES: We investigate the prevalence of unmet need arising from wait times, distance/transportation and financial affordability using the European Health Interview Survey. We explore associations between individual characteristics and the probability of reporting unmet need. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey conducted between February and December 2014. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 4004 members of the resident population in private households registered with the health insurance fund in Luxembourg aged 15 years and over. OUTCOME MEASURES: Six binary variables that measured unmet need arising from wait time, distance/transportation and affordability of medical, dental and mental healthcare and prescribed medicines among those who reported a need for care. RESULTS: The most common barrier to access arose from wait times (32%) and the least common from distance/transportation (4%). Dental care (12%) was most often reported as unaffordable, followed by prescribed medicines (6%), medical (5%) and mental health (5%) care. Respondents who reported bad/very bad health were associated with a higher risk of unmet need compared with those with good/very good health (wait: OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.53 to 3.80, distance/transportation: OR 7.12, 95% CI 2.91 to 17.44, afford medical care: OR 5.35, 95% CI 2.39 to 11.95, afford dental care: OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.86 to 5.71, afford prescribed medicines: OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.71, afford mental healthcare: OR 3.58, 95% CI 1.25 to 10.30). Income between the fourth and fifth quintiles was associated with a lower risk of unmet need for dental care (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.53), prescribed medicines (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.82) and mental healthcare (OR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.61) compared with income between the first and second quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: Recent and planned reforms to address waiting times and financial barriers to accessing healthcare may help to address unmet need. In addition, policy-makers should consider additional policies targeted at high-risk groups with poor health and low incomes.

Challenges of maintaining accountability in networks of health and care organisations: A study of developing Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships in the English National Health Service.

The English National Health Service (NHS) constitutes a unique institutional context, which combines elements of hierarchy, markets and networks. This has always raised issues about competing forms of accountability. Recent policy has emphasised a move from quasi market competition towards collaboration in the form of new regional organisational arrangements known as Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships (STPs). We explore accountability relationships in STPs, focusing on the challenges of increasing horizontal accountability given existing vertical accountabilities, most notably to national regulators. We utilize a case study approach concentrated on three Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in urban and rural settings in England. We conducted in-person interviews with 22 managers from NHS organisations and local authorities and examined local documents to obtain information on governance and accountability structures. The fieldwork was undertaken between November 2017 and July 2018. We analysed results by considering which actors were accountable to what forums and the nature of the obligation (vertical or horizontal). We found that individual organisations still retained vertical accountabilities and were reluctant to be held accountable for the whole STP, given they were responsible for only part of the joint effort. Moreover, organisations did not feel accountable to STPs and instead highlighted vertical accountabilities upwards to their own boards and to national regulators; and downwards to the public. But while local commissioning organisations, CCGs engaged with their members and the public, STPs failed to engage adequately with the public. Nevertheless, there were indications that horizontal accountability was starting to develop. This could become complementary to vertical accountability by facilitating mutual learning and peer review to anticipate and defer regulatory intervention. While vertical accountability is necessary to provide oversight and apply sanctions, it is not sufficient and should be accompanied by horizontal accountability.

Agreeing the allocation of scarce resources in the English NHS: Ostrom, common pool resources and the role of the state.

A challenge facing health systems such as the English National Health Service (NHS), which operate in a context of diversity of provision and scarcity of financial resources, is how organisations engaged in the provision of services can be encouraged to adopt collective resource utilisation strategies to ensure limited resources are utilised in the interests of service users and, in the case of tax funded services, the general public. In this paper the authors apply Elinor Ostrom's work concerning communities' self-governance of common pool resources to the development of collective approaches to the utilisation of resources for the provision of health services. Focusing on the establishment of Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships (STPs) in the English NHS, and drawing on interviews with senior managers in English NHS purchaser and provider organisations, we use Ostrom's work as a frame to analyse STPs, as vehicles to agree and enact shared rules governing the allocation of financial resources, and the role of the state in relation to the development of this collective governance. While there was an unwillingness to use STPs to agree collective rules for resource allocation, we found that local actors were discussing and agreeing collective approaches regarding how resources should be utilised to deliver health services in order to make best use of scarce resources. State influence on the development of collective approaches to resource allocation through the STP was viewed by some as coercive, but also provided a necessary function to ensure accountability. Our analysis suggests Ostrom's notion of resource 'appropriation' should be extended to capture the nuances of resource utilisation in complex production chains, such as those involved in the delivery of health services where the extraction of funds is not an end in itself, but where the value of resources depends on how they are utilised.

The regulation of competition and procurement in the National Health Service 2015-2018: enduring hierarchical control and the limits of juridification.

Since 1990, market mechanisms have occurred in the predominantly hierarchical National Health Service (NHS). The Health and Social Care Act 2012 led to concerns that market principles had been irrevocably embedded in the NHS and that the regulators would acquire unwarranted power compared with politicians (known as 'juridification'). To assess this concern, we analysed regulatory activity in the period from 2015 to 2018. We explored how economic regulation of the NHS had changed in light of the policy turn back to hierarchy in 2014 and the changes in the legislative framework under Public Contracts Regulations 2015. We found the continuing dominance of hierarchical modes of control was reflected in the relative dominance and behaviour of the sector economic regulator. But there had also been a limited degree of juridification involving the courts. Generally, the regulatory decisions were consistent with the 2014 policy shift away from market principles and with the enduring role of hierarchy in the NHS, but the existing legislative regime did allow the incursion of pro market regulatory decision making, and instances of such decisions were identified.

Examining the use of economic evaluations in health-related humanitarian programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

The costly nature of health sector responses to humanitarian crises and resource constraints means that there is a need to identify methods for priority setting and long-term planning. One method is economic evaluation. The aim of this systematic review is to examine the use of economic evaluations in health-related humanitarian programmes in low- and middle-income countries. This review used peer-reviewed literature published between January 1980 and June 2018 extracted from four main electronic bibliographic databases. The eligibility criteria were full economic evaluations (which compare the costs and outcomes of at least two interventions and provide information on efficiency) of health-related services in humanitarian crises in low- and middle-countries. The quality of eligible studies is appraised using the modified 36-question Drummond checklist. From a total of 8127 total studies, 11 full economic evaluations were identified. All economic evaluations were cost-effectiveness analyses. Three of the 11 studies used a provider perspective, 2 studies used a healthcare system perspective, 3 studies used a societal perspective and 3 studies did not specify the perspective used. The lower quality studies failed to provide 7information on the unit of costs and did not justify the time horizon of costs and discount rates, or conduct a sensitivity analysis. There was limited geographic range of the studies, with 9 of the 11 studies conducted in Africa. Recommendations include greater use of economic evaluation methods and data to enhance the microeconomic understanding of health interventions in humanitarian settings to support greater efficiency and transparency and to strengthen capacity by recruiting economists and providing training in economic methods to humanitarian agencies.

Measuring the Activity of Mental Health Services in England: Variation in Categorising Activity for Payment Purposes.

In the context of international interest in reforming mental health payment systems, national policy in England has sought to move towards an episodic funding approach. Patients are categorised into care clusters, and providers will be paid for episodes of care for patients within each cluster. For the payment system to work, clusters need to be appropriately homogenous in terms of financial resource use. We examine variation in costs and activity within clusters and across health care providers. We find that the large variation between providers with respect to costs within clusters mean that a cluster-based episodic payment system would have substantially different financial impacts across providers.

Achieving integrated care through commissioning of primary care services in the English NHS: a qualitative analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Since April 2015, Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) have taken on the responsibility to commission primary care services. The aim of this paper is to analyse how CCGs have responded to this new responsibility and to identify challenges and factors that facilitated or inhibited achievement of integrated care systems. DESIGN: We undertook an exploratory approach, combining data from interviews and national telephone surveys, with analysis of policy documents and case studies in four CCGs. Data were analysed using thematic content analysis. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We reviewed 147 CCG application documents and conducted two national telephone surveys with CCGs (n=49 and n=21). We interviewed 6 senior policymakers and 42 CCG staff who were involved in primary care co-commissioning (general practitioners and managers). We observed 74 primary care commissioning committee meetings and their subgroups (approx. 111 hours). RESULTS: CCGs in our case studies focused their primary care commissioning activities on developing strategic plans, 'new' primary care initiatives, and dealing with legacy work. Many plans focused on incentivising and supporting practices to work together and provide a broad range of services. There was a clear focus on ensuring the sustainability of general practice. Our respondents expressed mixed views as to what new collaborative service models, such as the new models of care and sustainability and transformation partnerships (STPs), would mean for the future of primary care and the impact they could have on CCGs and their members. CONCLUSIONS: There is a disconnect between locally based primary care and the wider system. One of the major challenges we identified is the lack of knowledge and expertise in the field of primary care at STP level. While primary care commissioning by CCGs seems to be supporting local collaborations between practices, there is some way to go before this is translated into broader integration initiatives across wider footprints.

Funding approaches for mental health services: Is there still a role for clustering?

Funding for mental health services in England faces many challenges including operating under financial constraints where it is not easy to demonstrate the link between activity and funding. Mental health services need to operate alongside and collaborate with acute hospital services where there is a well-established system for paying for activity. The funding landscape is shifting at a rapid pace and we outline the distinctions between the three main options - block contracts, episodic payment and capitation. Classification of treatment episodes via clustering presents an opportunity to demonstrate activity and reward it within these payment approaches. We have been engaged in research to assess how well the clustering system is performing against a number of fundamental criteria. Clusters need to be reliably recorded, to correspond to health needs, and to treatments that require roughly similar resources. We find that according to these criteria, clusters are falling short of providing a sound basis for measuring and financing services. Yet, we argue, it is the best available option and is essential for a more transparent funding approach for mental health to demonstrate its claim on resources, and that, as such, clusters should be a starting point for evolving a better funding system.

Investigating the relationship between costs and outcomes for English mental health providers: a bi-variate multi-level regression analysis.

Provider payment systems for mental health care that incentivize cost control and quality improvement have been a policy focus in a number of countries. In England, a new prospective provider payment system is being introduced to mental health that should encourage providers to control costs and improve outcomes. The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between costs and outcomes to ascertain whether there is a trade-off between controlling costs and improving outcomes. The main data source is the Mental Health Minimum Data Set (MHMDS) for the years 2011/12 and 2012/13. Costs are calculated using NHS reference cost data while outcomes are measured using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS). We estimate a bivariate multi-level model with costs and outcomes simultaneously. We calculate the correlation and plot the pairwise relationship between residual costs and outcomes at the provider level. After controlling for a range of demographic, need, social, and treatment variables, residual variation in costs and outcomes remains at the provider level. The correlation between residual costs and outcomes is negative, but very small, suggesting that cost-containment efforts by providers should not undermine outcome-improving efforts under the new payment system.

How are clinical commissioning groups managing conflicts of interest under primary care co-commissioning in England? A qualitative analysis.

OBJECTIVES: From April 2015, NHS England (NHSE) started to devolve responsibility for commissioning primary care services to clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). The aim of this paper is to explore how CCGs are managing potential conflicts of interest associated with groups of GPs commissioning themselves or their practices to provide services. DESIGN: We carried out two telephone surveys using a sample of CCGs. We also used a qualitative case study approach and collected data using interviews and meeting observations in four sites (CCGs). SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: We conducted 57 telephone interviews and 42 face-to-face interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and CCG staff involved in primary care co-commissioning and observed 74 meetings of CCG committees responsible for primary care co-commissioning. RESULTS: Conflicts of interest were seen as an inevitable consequence of CCGs commissioning primary care. Particular problems arose with obtaining unbiased clinical input for new incentive schemes and providing support to GP provider federations. Participants in meetings concerning primary care co-commissioning declared conflicts of interest at the outset of meetings. Different approaches were pursued regarding GPs involvement in subsequent discussions and decisions with inconsistency in the exclusion of GPs from meetings. CCG senior management felt confident that the new governance structures and policies dealt adequately with conflicts of interest, but we found these arrangements face limitations. While the revised NHSE statutory guidance on managing conflicts of interest (2016) was seen as an improvement on the original (2014), there still remained some confusion over various terms and concepts contained therein. CONCLUSIONS: Devolving responsibility for primary care co-commissioning to CCGs created a structural conflict of interest. The NHSE statutory guidance should be refined and clarified so that CCGs can properly manage conflicts of interest. Non-clinician members of committees involved in commissioning primary care require training in order to make decisions requiring clinical input in the absence of GPs.

Costs and Performance of English Mental Health Providers.

BACKGROUND: Despite limited resources in mental health care, there is little research exploring variations in cost performance across mental health care providers. In England, a prospective payment system for mental health care based on patient needs has been introduced with the potential to incentivise providers to control costs. The units of payment under the new system are 21 care clusters. Patients are allocated to a cluster by clinicians, and each cluster has a maximum review period. AIMS OF THE STUDY: The aim of this research is to explain variations in cluster costs between mental health providers using observable patient demographic, need, social and treatment variables. We also investigate if provider-level variables explain differences in costs. The residual variation in cluster costs is compared across providers to provide insights into which providers may gain or lose under the new financial regime. METHODS: The main data source is the Mental Health Minimum Data Set (MHMDS) for England for the years 2011/12 and 2012/13. Our unit of observation is the period of time spent in a care cluster and costs associated with the cluster review period are calculated from NHS Reference Cost data. Costs are modelled using multi-level log-linear and generalised linear models. The residual variation in costs at the provider level is quantified using Empirical Bayes estimates and comparative standard errors used to rank and compare providers. RESULTS: There are wide variations in costs across providers. We find that variables associated with higher costs include older age, black ethnicity, admission under the Mental Health Act, and higher need as reflected in the care clusters. Provider type, size, occupancy and the proportion of formal admissions at the provider-level are also found to be significantly associated with costs. After controlling for patient- and provider-level variables, significant residual variation in costs remains at the provider level. DISCUSSION AND LIMITATIONS: The results suggest that some providers may have to increase efficiency in order to remain financially viable if providers are paid national fixed prices (tariffs) under the new payment system. Although the classification system for payment is not based on diagnosis, a limitation of the study is the inability to explore the effect of diagnosis due to poor coding in the MHMDS. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE: We find that some mental health care providers in England are associated with higher costs of provision after controlling for characteristics of service users and providers. These higher costs may be associated with higher quality care or with inefficient provision of care. IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICIES: The introduction of a national tariff is likely to provide a strong incentive to reduce costs. Policies may need to consider safe-guarding local health economies if some providers make substantial losses under the new payment regime. IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH: Future research should consider the relationship between costs and quality to ascertain whether reducing costs may potentially negatively impact patient outcomes.

General practitioners' views of clinically led commissioning: cross-sectional survey in England.

OBJECTIVES: Involving general practitioners (GPs) in the commissioning/purchasing of services has been an important element in English health policy for many years. The Health and Social Care Act 2012 handed responsibility for commissioning of the majority of care for local populations to GP-led Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs). In this paper, we explore GP attitudes to involvement in commissioning and future intentions for engagement. DESIGN AND SETTING: Survey of a random sample of GPs across England in 2015. METHOD: The Eighth National GP Worklife Survey was distributed to GPs in spring 2015. Responses were received from 2611 respondents (response rate = 46%). We compared responses across different GP characteristics and conducted two sample tests of proportions to identify statistically significant differences in responses across groups. We also used multivariate logistic regression to identify the characteristics associated with wanting a formal CCG role in the future. RESULTS: While GPs generally agree that they can add value to aspects of commissioning, only a minority feel that this is an important part of their role. Many current leaders intend to quit in the next 5 years, and there is limited appetite among those not currently in a formal role to take up such a role in the future. CCGs were set up as 'membership organisations' but only a minority of respondents reported feeling that they had 'ownership' of their local CCG and these were often GPs with formal CCG roles. However, respondents generally agree that the CCG has a legitimate role in influencing the work that they do. CONCLUSION: CCGs need to engage in active succession planning to find the next generation of GP leaders. GPs believe that CCGs have a legitimate role in influencing their work, suggesting that there may be scope for CCGs to involve GPs more fully in roles short of formal leadership.

Variations in Performance of Mental Health Providers in the English NHS: An Analysis of the Relationship Between Readmission Rates and Length-of-Stay.

Length-of-stay (LOS) for inpatient mental health care is a major driver of variation in resource use internationally. We explore determinants of LOS in England, focusing on the impact of emergency readmission rates which can serve as a measure of the quality of care. Data for 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 are analysed using hierarchical and non-hierarchical models. Unexplained residual variation among providers is quantified using Empirical Bayes techniques. Diagnostic, treatment and patient-level demographic variables are key drivers of LOS. Higher emergency readmission rates are associated with shorter LOS. Ranking providers by residual variation reveals significant differences, suggesting some providers can improve performance.