A parametrized nonlinear predictive control strategy for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing measures in Brazil.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus was first registered in Brazil by the end of February 2020. Since then, the country counts over 150000 deaths due to COVID-19 and faces a profound social and economic crisis; there is also an ongoing health catastrophe, with the majority of hospital beds in many Brazilian cities currently occupied with COVID-19 patients. Thus, a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC) scheme used to plan appropriate social distancing measures (and relaxations) in order to mitigate the effects of this pandemic is formulated in this paper. The strategy is designed upon an adapted data-driven Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model, which includes time-varying auto-regressive immunological parameters. A novel identification procedure is proposed, composed of analytical regressions, Least-Squares optimization and auto-regressive model fits. The adapted SIRD model is validated with real data and able to adequately represent the contagion curves over large forecast horizons. The NMPC strategy is designed to generate piecewise constant quarantine guidelines, which can be reassessed (relaxed/strengthened) each week. Simulation results show that the proposed NMPC technique is able to mitigate the number of infections and progressively loosen social distancing measures. With respect to a "no-control" condition, the number of deaths could be reduced in up to 30% if the proposed NMPC coordinated health policy measures are enacted.

A control framework to optimize public health policies in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic triggered substantial economic and social disruptions. Mitigation policies varied across countries based on resources, political conditions, and human behavior. In the absence of widespread vaccination able to induce herd immunity, strategies to coexist with the virus while minimizing risks of surges are paramount, which should work in parallel with reopening societies. To support these strategies, we present a predictive control system coupled with a nonlinear model able to optimize the level of policies to stop epidemic growth. We applied this system to study the unfolding of COVID-19 in Bahia, Brazil, also assessing the effects of varying population compliance. We show the importance of finely tuning the levels of enforced measures to achieve SARS-CoV-2 containment, with periodic interventions emerging as an optimal control strategy in the long-term.

A novel unified method for time-varying dead-time compensation.

This paper proposes an unified procedure for time-varying dead-time compensation. The method is an adapted version of the Filtered Smith Predictor (FSP), which is coupled to a delay estimation scheme and two adaptive Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) blocks. These LPV blocks allow the DTC to autonomously regulate the amount of closed-loop robustness, with respect to the (estimated) amount of delay. The method is easily adjustable and can be tuned to provide a balance between robustness and performance objectives, while being able to deal with unstable and integrative processes. A series of numerical simulations are included to illustrate the advantages of the proposed method towards reference tracking, noise attenuation, disturbance rejection and uncertainty handling. This novel DTC enables enhanced performances with respect other methods from the literature.

A Sequential Quadratic Programming Approach for the Predictive Control of the COVID-19 Spread.

The COVID-19 pandemic is the defying crisis of our time. Since mass vaccination has not yet been established, countries still have been facing many issues due to the viral spread. Even in cities with high seroprevalence, intense resurgent waves of COVID-19 have been registered, possibly due to viral variants with greater transmission rates. Accordingly, we develop a new Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework that is able to determine social distancing guidelines and altogether provide estimates for the future epidemiological characteristic of the contagion. For such, the viral dynamics are represented through a Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) version of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) model. The solution of the LPV MPC problem is based on a Sequential Quadratic Program (SQP). This SQP provides convergent estimates of the future LPV scheduling parameters. We use real data to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method to mitigate this contagion while vaccination is ongoing.

An optimal predictive control strategy for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) social distancing policies in Brazil.

This paper formulates a Model Predictive Control (MPC) policy to mitigate the COVID-19 contagion in Brazil, designed as optimal On-Off social isolation strategy. The proposed optimization algorithm is able to determine the time and duration of social distancing policies in the country. The achieved results are based on data from the period between March and May of 2020, regarding the cumulative number of infections and deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This dataset is assumably largely sub-notified due to the absence of mass testing in Brazil. Thus, the MPC is based on a SIR model which is identified using an uncertainty-weighted Least-Squares criterion. Furthermore, this model includes an additional dynamic variable that mimics the response of the population to the social distancing policies determined by the government, which affect the COVID-19 transmission rate. The proposed control method is set within a mixed-logical formalism, since the decision variable is forcefully binary (existence or the absence of social distance policy). A dwell-time constraint is included to avoid too frequent shifts between these two inputs. The achieved simulation results illustrate how such optimal control method would operate in practice, pointing out that no social distancing should be relaxed before mid August 2020. If relaxations are necessary, they should not be performed before this date and should be in small periods, no longer than 25 days. This paradigm would proceed roughly until January/2021. The results also indicate a possible second peak of infections, which has a forecast to the beginning of October. This peak can be reduced if the periods of days with relaxed social isolation measures are shortened.