Detecting forest response to droughts with global observations of vegetation water content.

Droughts in a warming climate have become more common and more extreme, making understanding forest responses to water stress increasingly pressing. Analysis of water stress in trees has long focused on water potential in xylem and leaves, which influences stomatal closure and water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. At the same time, changes of vegetation water content (VWC) are linked to a range of tree responses, including fluxes of water and carbon, mortality, flammability, and more. Unlike water potential, which requires demanding in situ measurements, VWC can be retrieved from remote sensing measurements, particularly at microwave frequencies using radar and radiometry. Here, we highlight key frontiers through which VWC has the potential to significantly increase our understanding of forest responses to water stress. To validate remote sensing observations of VWC at landscape scale and to better relate them to data assimilation model parameters, we introduce an ecosystem-scale analog of the pressure-volume curve, the non-linear relationship between average leaf or branch water potential and water content commonly used in plant hydraulics. The sources of variability in these ecosystem-scale pressure-volume curves and their relationship to forest response to water stress are discussed. We further show to what extent diel, seasonal, and decadal dynamics of VWC reflect variations in different processes relating the tree response to water stress. VWC can also be used for inferring belowground conditions-which are difficult to impossible to observe directly. Lastly, we discuss how a dedicated geostationary spaceborne observational system for VWC, when combined with existing datasets, can capture diel and seasonal water dynamics to advance the science and applications of global forest vulnerability to future droughts.

The roles of conduit redundancy and connectivity in xylem hydraulic functions.

Wood anatomical traits shape a xylem segment's hydraulic efficiency and resistance to embolism spread due to declining water potential. It has been known for decades that variations in conduit connectivity play a role in altering xylem hydraulics. However, evaluating the precise effect of conduit connectivity has been elusive. The objective here is to establish an analytical linkage between conduit connectivity and grouping and tissue-scale hydraulics. It is hypothesized that an increase in conduit connectivity brings improved resistance to embolism spread due to increased hydraulic pathway redundancy. However, an increase in conduit connectivity could also reduce resistance due to increased speed of embolism spread with respect to pressure. We elaborate on this trade-off using graph theory, percolation theory and computational modeling of xylem. The results are validated using anatomical measurements of Acer branch xylem. Considering only species with vessels, increases in connectivity improve resistance to embolism spread without negatively affecting hydraulic conductivity. The often measured grouping index fails to capture the totality of the effect of conduit connectivity on xylem hydraulics. Variations in xylem network characteristics, such as conduit connectivity, might explain why hypothesized trends among woody species, such as the 'safety-efficiency' trade-off hypothesis, are weaker than expected.

Peak grain forecasts for the US High Plains amid withering waters.

Irrigated agriculture contributes 40% of total global food production. In the US High Plains, which produces more than 50 million tons per year of grain, as much as 90% of irrigation originates from groundwater resources, including the Ogallala aquifer. In parts of the High Plains, groundwater resources are being depleted so rapidly that they are considered nonrenewable, compromising food security. When groundwater becomes scarce, groundwater withdrawals peak, causing a subsequent peak in crop production. Previous descriptions of finite natural resource depletion have utilized the Hubbert curve. By coupling the dynamics of groundwater pumping, recharge, and crop production, Hubbert-like curves emerge, responding to the linked variations in groundwater pumping and grain production. On a state level, this approach predicted when groundwater withdrawal and grain production peaked and the lag between them. The lags increased with the adoption of efficient irrigation practices and higher recharge rates. Results indicate that, in Texas, withdrawals peaked in 1966, followed by a peak in grain production 9 y later. After better irrigation technologies were adopted, the lag increased to 15 y from 1997 to 2012. In Kansas, where these technologies were employed concurrently with the rise of irrigated grain production, this lag was predicted to be 24 y starting in 1994. In Nebraska, grain production is projected to continue rising through 2050 because of high recharge rates. While Texas and Nebraska had equal irrigated output in 1975, by 2050, it is projected that Nebraska will have almost 10 times the groundwater-based production of Texas.

Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics.

The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro = 4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro = 2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of 'super-spreaders' on the inference of Ro are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19.

A network model links wood anatomy to xylem tissue hydraulic behaviour and vulnerability to cavitation.

Plant xylem response to drought is routinely represented by a vulnerability curve (VC). Despite the significance of VCs, the connection between anatomy and tissue-level hydraulic response to drought remains a subject of inquiry. We present a numerical model of water flow in flowering plant xylem that combines current knowledge on diffuse-porous anatomy and embolism spread to explore this connection. The model produces xylem networks and uses different parameterizations of intervessel connection vulnerability to embolism spread: the Young-Laplace equation and pit membrane stretching. Its purpose is upscaling processes occurring on the microscopic length scales, such as embolism propagation through pit membranes, to obtain tissue-scale hydraulics. The terminal branch VC of Acer glabrum was successfully reproduced relying only on real observations of xylem tissue anatomy. A sensitivity analysis shows that hydraulic performance and VC shape and location along the water tension axis are heavily dependent on anatomy. The main result is that the linkage between pit-scale and vessel-scale anatomical characters, along with xylem network topology, affects VCs significantly. This work underscores the importance of stepping up research related to the three-dimensional network structure of xylem tissues. The proposed model's versatility makes it an important tool to explore similar future questions.