Epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on cardiovascular diseases burden attributable to ambient air pollution across BRICS.

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution raises the risk of deaths and morbidity worldwide. From 1990 to 2019, we observed the epidemiological trends and age-period-cohort effects on the cardiovascular diseases (CVD) burden attributable to ambient air pollution across Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS). The number of CVD deaths related to ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution increased nearly fivefold in China [5.0% (95% CI 4.7, 5.2)] and India [5.7% (95% CI 5.1, 6.3)] during the study period. The age-standardized CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to ambient PM pollution significantly increased in India and China but decreased in Brazil and Russia. Due to air pollution, the relative risk (RR) of premature CVD mortality (< 70 years) was higher in Russia [RR 12.6 (95% CI 8.7, 17.30)] and India [RR 9.2 (95% CI 7.6, 11.20)]. A higher period risk (2015-2019) for CVD deaths was found in India [RR 1.4 (95% CI 1.4, 1.4)] followed by South Africa [RR 1.3 (95% CI 1.3, 1.3)]. Across the BRICS countries, the RR of CVD mortality markedly decreased from the old birth cohort to young birth cohorts. In conclusion, China and India showed an increasing trend of CVD mortality and morbidity due to ambient PM pollution and higher risk of premature CVD deaths were observed in Russia and India.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions. METHODS: We extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates. RESULTS: The number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas. CONCLUSIONS: Global secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

Estimating disparities of prostate cancer burden and its attributable risk factors for males across the BRICS-plus, 1990-2019: A comparable study of key nations with emerging economies.

BACKGROUNDS: The study aimed to analyze epidemiology burden of male prostate cancer across the BRICS-plus, and identify potential risk factors by assessing the associations with age, period, birth cohorts and sociodemographic index (SDI). METHODS: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was calculated to assess long-term trends, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze these three effects on prostate cancer burden. Quantile regression was used to investigate the association between SDI and health outcomes. RESULTS: The higher incidence and mortality were observed in Mercosur and SACU regions, increasing trends were observed in prostate cancer incidence in almost all BRICS-plus countries (AAPC > 0), and EEU's grew by 24.31% (%AAPC range: -0.13-3.03). Mortality had increased in more than half of countries (AAPC > 0), and SACU grew by 1.82% (%AAPC range: 0.62-1.75). Incidence and mortality risk sharply increased with age across all BRICS-plus countries and globally, and the peak was reached in the age group 80-84 years. Rate ratio (RR) of incidence increased with birth cohorts in all BRICS-plus countries except for Kazakhstan where slightly decrease, while mortality RR decreased with birth cohort in most of BRICS-plus countries. SDI presented significantly positive associations with incidence in 50 percentiles. The deaths attributable to smoking declined in most of BRICS-plus nations, and many countries in China-ASEAN-FTA and EEU had higher values. CONCLUSION: Prostate cancer posed a serious public health challenge with an increasing burden among most of BRICS-plus countries. Age had significant effects on prostate cancer burden, and recent birth cohorts suffered from higher incidence risk. SDI presented a positive relationship with incidence, and the smoking-attributable burden was tremendous in China-ASEAN-FTA and EEU region. Secondary prevention should be prioritized in BRICS-plus nations, and health policies targeting important populations should be strengthened based on their characteristics and adaptability.

The adverse effect of gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy on maternal-perinatal outcomes among singleton and twin pregnancies: a retrospective cohort study (2011-2019).

Background: Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are the predominant pregnancy complications among singleton and twin pregnancies worldwide. Our primary objective was to explore the adverse effect of GDM and HDP on maternal-perinatal outcomes compared with non-GDM and non-HDP in singleton and twin pregnancies. The secondary objective was to find the risk of adverse maternal-perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies compared with singleton pregnancies complicated with GDM and HDP in Hubei, China. Methods: A tertiary hospital-based retrospective study was conducted at Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Hubei Province, China, from 2011 to 2019. A chi-square test was used to determine the difference in adverse maternal-perinatal outcomes between singleton and twin pregnancies. A multiple binary logistic regression model and a joinpoint regression model were used to determine the association of GDM and HDP with adverse maternal-perinatal outcomes and GDM and HDP temporal trend among singleton and twin pregnancies. Results: The trend of HDP [average annual percentage change (AAPC) 15.1% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 5.3, 25.7)] among singleton pregnancies and GDM [AAPC 50.4% (95%CI: 19.9, 88.7)] among twin pregnancies significantly increased from 2011 to 2019. After adjusting for confounding factors, GDM is associated with an increased risk of C-section (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.5; 95%CI: 1.3, 1.6) and macrosomia (aOR, 1.3; 95%CI: 1.1, 1.6) in singleton and preterm birth (PTB) (aOR, 2.1; 95%CI: 1.2, 3.3) in twin pregnancies compared with non-GDM. HDP was associated with a higher risk of C-section, PTB, perinatal mortality, and low birth weight (LBW) in both singleton and twin pregnancies compared with the non-HDP. Compared with singleton pregnancies complicated with GDM and HDP, twin pregnancies showed higher odds of C-section [(aOR, 1.7; 95%CI: 1.1, 2.7), (aOR, 4.6; 95%CI: 2.5, 8.7), respectively], PTB [(aOR, 22.9; 95%CI: 14.1, 37.3), (aOR, 8.1; 95%CI: 5.3, 12.3), respectively], LBW [(aOR, 12.1; 95%CI: 8.2, 18.1), (aOR, 5.1; 95%CI: 3.6, 7.4), respectively], and low Apgar score [(aOR, 8.2; 95%CI: 4.4, 15.1), (aOR, 3.8; 95%CI: 2.4, 5.8), respectively] complicated with GDM and HDP. Conclusion: In conclusion, GDM showed an increased risk of a few adverse maternal-perinatal outcomes and HDP is associated with a higher risk of several adverse maternal-perinatal outcomes in singleton and twin pregnancies compared to non-GDM and non-HDP. Moreover, twin pregnancies complicated with GDM and HDP showed higher odds of adverse maternal-neonatal outcomes compared with singleton pregnancies complicated with GDM and HDP.

Epidemiological Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Attributable to Modifiable Risk Factors and Its Association with Sociodemographic Transitions across BRICS-Plus Countries.

BRICS-Plus countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other countries) is a group of 35 countries with emerging economies making up more than half of the world's population. We explored epidemiological trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to modifiable risk factors and its association with period and birth cohort effects and sociodemographic index (SDI) across BRICS-Plus countries by using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD deaths increased by 85.2% (6.1 million to 11.3 million) across BRICS-Plus countries. The CVD age-standardized mortality rate attributable to dietary risks and smoking significantly decreased across BRICS-Plus countries, with some exceptions. However, four-fifths of BRICS-Plus countries observed a remarkable increasing trend of high body mass-index (BMI)-related CVD deaths, in particular, among younger adults (25-49 years). Early birth cohorts and individuals aged greater than 50 years showed a higher risk of CVD mortality. Both the China-ASEAN FTA and Mercosur regions stand out for their successful sociodemographic transition, with a significant reduction in CVD mortality over the study period. Singapore and Brazil achieved great progress in CVD mortality reduction and the other BRICS-Plus countries should follow their lead in adopting public health policies and initiatives into practice.

Estimating disparities in breast cancer screening programs towards mortality, case fatality, and DALYs across BRICS-plus.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies over the past four decades have revealed that breast cancer screening (BCS) significantly reduces breast cancer (BC) mortality. However, in BRICS-plus countries, the association between BCS and BC case fatality and disability are unknown. This study examines the association of different BCS approaches with age-standardized mortality, case-fatality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, as well as with other biological and sociodemographic risk variables, across BRICS-plus from a national and economic perspective. METHODS: In this ecological study applying mixed-effect multilevel regression models, a country-specific dataset was analyzed by combining data from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 on female age-standardized BC mortality, incidence, and DALYs rates with information on national/regional BCS availability (against no such program or only a pilot program) and BCS type (only self-breast examination (SBE) and/or clinical breast examination (CBE) [SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE with mammographic screening availability [MM and/or SBE/CBE] versus SBE/CBE/mammographic with digital mammography and/or ultrasound (US) [DMM/US and/or previous tests] in BRICS-plus countries. RESULTS: Compared to self/clinical breast examinations (SBE/CBE) across BRICS-plus, more complex BCS program availability was the most significant predictor of decreased mortality [MM and/or SBE/CBE: - 2.64, p < 0.001; DMM/US and/or previous tests: - 1.40, p < 0.001]. In the BRICS-plus, CVD presence, high BMI, second-hand smoke, and active smoking all contributed to an increase in BC mortality and DALY rate. High-income and middle-income regions in BRICS-plus had significantly lower age-standardized BC mortality, case-fatality, and DALYs rates than low-income regions when nationwide BC screening programs were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of mammography (digital or traditional) and BCS is associated with breast cancer burden in BRICS-plus countries, with regional variations. In light of high-quality evidence from previous causal studies, these findings further support the preventive role of mammography screening for BCS at the national level. Intervening on BCS related risk factors may further reduce the disease burden associated with BC.

Risk assessment of dietary factors in global pattern of ischemic heart disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years over 30 years.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate differences in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD)-related mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by dietary factors, as well as the influencing factors with age, period, and cohort effects, in regions with different social-demographic status from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We extracted data on IHD mortality, DALYs, and age-standardized rates (ASRs) related to dietary risks from 1990 to 2019 as IHD burden measures. Hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze age- and time-related trends and the interaction between different dietary factors on the risk of IHD mortality and DALYs. Results: Globally, there were 9.2 million IHD deaths and 182 million DALYs in 2019. Both the ASRs of death and DALYs declined from 1990 to 2019 (percentage change: -30.8% and -28.6%, respectively), particularly in high and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) areas. Low-whole-grain, low-legume, and high-sodium diets were the three main dietary factors that increased the risk of IHD burden. Advanced age [RR (95%CI): 1.33 (1.27, 1.39)] and being male [1.11 (1.06, 1.16)] were independent risk factors for IHD mortality worldwide and in all SDI regions. After controlling for age effects, IHD risk showed a negative period effect overall. Poor diets were positively associated with increased risk of death but were not yet statistically significant. Interactions between dietary factors and advanced age were observed in all regions after adjusting for related variables. In people aged 55 and above, low intake of whole grains was associated with an increased risk of IHD death [1.28 (1.20, 1.36)]. DALY risks showed a similar but more obvious trend. Conclusion: IHD burden remains high, with significant regional variations. The high IHD burden could be attributed to advanced age, sex (male), and dietary risk factors. Dietary habits in different SDI regions may have varying effects on the global burden of IHD. In areas with lower SDI, it is recommended to pay more attention to dietary problems, particularly in the elderly, and to consider how to improve dietary patterns in order to reduce modifiable risk factors.

Epidemiological trend and age-period-cohort effects on cardiovascular disease mortality and disability-adjusted life years attributable to dietary risks and high body mass index at the regional and country level across China and Pakistan.

Background: Modifiable risk factors are major drivers of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to determine the epidemiological trend and age-period-cohort effects on CVD burden attributable to dietary risks and high body mass index (BMI) across China and Pakistan from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Data on the all-ages and age-specific CVD burden, age-standardized CVD mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to find temporal trends and age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was used to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on CVD burden. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD burden attributable to dietary risks and high BMI increased by ~2-3-fold in China and by 3-5-fold in Pakistan. The diet-related CVD age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate significantly decreased in China but increased in Pakistan. Both countries showed a marked increasing trend of CVD ASMR and the age-standardized DALYs rate attributable to high BMI. Taiwan in China showed a remarkable reduction in CVD burden. However, in Pakistan, all regions observed a significantly increasing trend of CVD burden attributable to modifiable risk factors. A higher risk ratio of premature CVD mortality (<70 years) was observed among Chinese attributable to high BMI and among Pakistani attributable to dietary risks. In China, early birth cohorts showed a higher risk ratio and recent birth cohorts experienced a lower risk ratio of CVD burden compared with Pakistan. Conclusion: In conclusion, dietary risks and high BMI caused a huge CVD burden across China and Pakistan.

Breast cancer epidemiology and sociodemographic differences in BRICS-plus countries from 1990 to 2019: An age period cohort analysis.

Background: Breast cancer (BC) is a major health concern in the BRICS-plus, a group of developing nations consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian countries, with nearly half of the world's population. This study aims to identify potential risk factors contributing to the burden of BC by assessing its epidemiological and socio-demographic changes. Methods: Data on BC outcomes were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Survey. The age-period-cohort (APC) modeling technique was used to evaluate the nonlinear impacts of age, cohort, and period on BC outcomes and reported risk attributable mortality and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate changes between 1990 and 2019. Results: In 2019, there were 0.90 million female BC cases and 0.35 million deaths in the BRICS-plus region, with China and India having the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths, followed by Pakistan. Lesotho experienced the highest annualized rates of change (AROC: 2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99) in the past three decades. Birth cohorts' impact on BC varies greatly between the BRICS-plus nations, with Pakistan suffering the largest risk increase in the most recent cohort. High body mass index (BMI), high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and a diet high in red meat contributed to the highest death and DALYs rates in most BRICS-plus nations in 2019, and there was a strong negative link between SDI and death and DALYs rate. Conclusions: The study found that the burden of BC varies significantly between BRICS-plus regions. Thus, BRICS-plus nations should prioritise BC prevention, raise public awareness, and implement screening efficiency measures to reduce the burden of BC in the future, as well as strengthen public health policies and initiatives for important populations based on their characteristics and adaptability.

Evaluation of Lee-Carter model to breast cancer mortality prediction in China and Pakistan.

Background: Precise breast cancer-related mortality forecasts are required for public health program and healthcare service planning. A number of stochastic model-based approaches for predicting mortality have been developed. The trends shown by mortality data from various diseases and countries are critical to the effectiveness of these models. This study illustrates the unconventional statistical method for estimating and predicting the mortality risk between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan using the Lee-Carter model. Methods: Longitudinal death data for female breast cancer from 1990 to 2019 obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study database were used to compare statistical approach between early-onset (age group, 25-49 years) and screen-age/late-onset (age group, 50-84 years) population. We evaluated the model performance both within (training period, 1990-2010) and outside (test period, 2011-2019) data forecast accuracy using the different error measures and graphical analysis. Finally, using the Lee-Carter model, we predicted the general index for the time period (2011 to 2030) and derived corresponding life expectancy at birth for the female breast cancer population using life tables. Results: Study findings revealed that the Lee-Carter approach to predict breast cancer mortality rate outperformed in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset population in terms of goodness of fit and within and outside forecast accuracy check. Moreover, the trend in forecast error was decreasing gradually in the screen-age/late-onset compared with that in the early-onset breast cancer population in China and Pakistan. Furthermore, we observed that this approach had provided almost comparable results between the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset population in forecast accuracy for more varying mortality behavior over time like in Pakistan. Both the early-onset and screen-age/late-onset populations in Pakistan were expected to have an increase in breast cancer mortality by 2030. whereas, for China, it was expected to decrease in the early-onset population. Conclusion: The Lee-Carter model can be used to estimate breast cancer mortality and so to project future life expectancy at birth, especially in the screen-age/late-onset population. As a result, it is suggested that this approach may be useful and convenient for predicting cancer-related mortality even when epidemiological and demographic disease data sets are limited. According to model predictions for breast cancer mortality, improved health facilities for disease diagnosis, control, and prevention are required to reduce the disease's future burden, particularly in less developed countries.

More recent insights into the breast cancer burden across BRICS-Plus: Health consequences in key nations with emerging economies using the global burden of disease study 2019.

Background: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other Asian nations make up the BRICS-Plus, a group of developing countries that account for about half of the world's population and contribute significantly to the global illness burden. This study aimed to analyzed the epidemiological burden of female breast cancer (BC) across the BRICS-Plus from 1990 to 2019 and studied the associations with age, period, birth cohort and countries' sociodemographic index (SDI). Methods: The BC mortality and incidence estimates came from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. We estimated cohort and period effects in BC outcomes between 1990 and 2019 using age-period-cohort (APC) modeling. The maximum likelihood (ML) of the APC-model Poisson with log (Y) based on the natural-spline function was used to estimate the rate ratio (RR). We used annualized rate of change (AROC) to quantify change over the previous 30 years in BC across BRICS-Plus and compare it to the global. Results: In 2019, there were about 1.98 million female BC cases (age-standardized rate of 45.86 [95% UI: 41.91, 49.76]) and 0.69 million deaths (age-standardized rate of 15.88 [95% UI: 14.66, 17.07]) around the globe. Among them, 45.4% of incident cases and 51.3% of deaths were attributed to the BRICS-Plus. China (41.1% cases and 26.5% deaths) and India (16.1% cases and 23.1% deaths) had the largest proportion of incident cases and deaths among the BRICS-Plus nations in 2019. Pakistan came in third with 5.6% cases and 8.8% deaths. Over the past three decades, from 1990 to 2019, the BRICS-Plus region's greatest AROC was seen in Lesotho (2.61%; 95%UI: 1.99-2.99). The birth cohort impacts on BC vary significantly among the BRICS-Plus nations. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tended to decline in all BRICS-Plus nations, notably in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (China-ASEAN FTA) countries, and the drop in risk in the most recent cohort was lowest in China and the Maldives. Additionally, there was a substantial negative link between SDI and case fatality rate (r1990= -0.91, p<0.001; r2019= -0.89, p<0.001) in the BRICS-Plus in both 1990 and 2019, with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) nations having the highest case fatality rate. Conclusions: The BC burden varies remarkably between different BRICS-Plus regions. Although the BRICS' efforts to regulate BC succeeded, the overall improvements lagged behind those in high-income Asia-Pacific nations. Every BRICS-Plus country should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies directed at different priority groups, according to BRIC-Plus and other high-burden nations.

A Mediation Moderation Model between Self-Evaluative Emotions and Relapse Rate among Polysubstance Users: A Comparative Cross-Sectional Study.

A substantial portion of drug abuse research has concentrated on people with a single-substance-use disorder (SSUD), but many people abuse more than one drug. Studies have yet to examine how those with polysubstance-use disorder (PSUD) differ from those with an SSUD on the risk of relapse, self-evaluative emotions (e.g., shame and guilt), and personality factors (e.g., self-efficacy). Eleven rehab facilities in Lahore city, Pakistan were randomly chosen to provide a sample of 402 males with PSUD. For comparison, 410 age-matched males with SSUD were enlisted using a demographic form with eight questions, the State Shame and Guilt Scale, and the General Self-Efficacy Scale. Mediated moderation analysis was performed using Hayes' process macro. The results demonstrate that shame-proneness is positively associated with relapse rate. Guilt-proneness mediates the relationship between shame-proneness and relapse rate. Self-efficacy buffers the influence of shame-proneness on relapse rate. Although the mediation and moderation effects were found in both study groups, these effects were significantly stronger among people with PSUD than those with SSUD. To be more specific, people with PSUD reported a higher overall score on shame, guilt, and relapse rate. Additionally, people with SSUD indicated a higher score on self-efficacy than those with PSUD. The findings of this study suggest that drug rehab facilities should implement a variety of strategies to raise drug users' levels of self-efficacy, which will help to reduce their risk of relapse.

Prediction of cardiovascular diseases mortality- and disability-adjusted life-years attributed to modifiable dietary risk factors from 1990 to 2030 among East Asian countries and the world.

Background: Unhealthy eating habits are a significant modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); nevertheless, no evidence of their impact on the CVD burden has been reported in East Asian countries. We aimed to determine the trend and predict the future CVDs burden attributed to modifiable dietary risk factors in the East Asian countries (China, Japan, South Korea, and North Korea) and the world. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data were used to find the trend of CVDs [ischemic heart disease (IHD) and ischemic stroke (IS)] mortality- and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to dietary risk factors in the East Asian countries and the world (1990-2019) and its prediction from 2020 to 2030. We used the joinpoint regression model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for trend and future forecast, respectively. Results: From 1990 to 2019, regardless of sex, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and DALYs of IHD attributed to dietary risk factors significantly decreased in Japan, South Korea, and the world. However, the ASMR of IHD significantly increased in Chinese males and for both sexes in North Korea. The ASMR and DALYs of IHD and IS due to dietary risk factors were higher in males than in females in the world. From 2020 to 2030, the ASMR of IHD is predicted to increase in South Korean females and Japanese males. Globally, a diet low in whole grains was the top risk factor for the highest IHD mortality and DALYs in 2019, followed by a diet low in legumes and a diet high in sodium. A diet low in whole grains, a diet high in sodium, and a diet low in legumes were the leading risk factors for high IHD mortality in East Asian countries. Conclusion: The trend of IHD and IS burden due to dietary risk factors varies substantially across the East Asian countries compared to the trend of CVDs burden in the world. The study findings may help the public health policymakers to design proper strategies for improvement of the quality of life to combat the CVDs burden in the future for the East Asian countries.

Shame and guilt activations: Associations and sociodemographic differences among ploysubstance abusers.

Objectives: Shame and guilt in polysubstance abusers are still understudied despite their significance in substance use disorders (SUD). The goal of the current study is to develop a better understanding of how shame and guilt interact among polysubstance abusers who are receiving residential treatment. Methods: The sample of two hundred four males with SUD admitted to five rehabilitation centers from two cities in Pakistan participated in this study. For comparison, 215 age-matched healthy individuals were recruited (control). All participants reported their scores on the state shame and guilt scale (SSGS) and demographic form. A cross-sectional study design was adopted. Results: The group with SUD reported greater activations on SGSS (r = 0.79, p < 0.001) as compared to healthy (control) individuals (r = 0.48, p < 0.001). Further, multivariate analysis indicated that people with SUD who were of older age, unemployed, living in a nuclear family system, with a higher level of education, and low income, experienced higher levels of shame and guilt. Multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that people with SUD in the age group 41-60 years (OR 5.2, 95%CI 2.4-6.8), unemployed (OR 4.4, 95%CI 3.2-4.7), nuclear family system (OR 5.9, 95%CI 4.5-6.4) and low monthly income group (OR 5.4, 95%CI 3.5-5.8) had a significantly high risk of shame and guilt than the control group. Conclusion: Findings of the current study indicate an association between shame and guilt activation and SUD. These results suggest that polysubstance users may benefit from therapeutic interventions to avoid a generalization of shame and guilt toward their substance use. Reducing shame and guilt should be considered a priority in treating adults with multiple SUD.

Time trends in tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019.

Background: Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent among the HIV-negative population and ranks first among the HIV-positive population. However, few studies have assessed tuberculosis trends in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) or with an emphasis on HIV status. This study assesses the time trends of tuberculosis mortality across the BRICS with an emphasis on HIV status from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We obtained tuberculosis data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study (GBD 2019). We calculated the relative proportion of tuberculosis to all communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases by HIV status across the BRICS. We used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate cohort and period effects in tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019, and calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks. Findings: There were 549,522 tuberculosis deaths across the BRICS in 2019, accounting for 39.3% of global deaths. Among HIV-negative populations, the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of tuberculosis in BRICS remained far higher than that of high-income Asia Pacific countries, especially in India (36.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [30.7, 42.6]) and South Africa (40.1 per 100 000 in 2019, 95% UI [36.8, 43.7]). China had the fastest ASMR reduction across the BRICS, while India maintained the largest tuberculosis death numbers with an annual decrease much slower than China's (-4.1 vs -8.0%). Among HIV-positive populations, the ASMR in BRICS surged from 0.24 per 100 000 in 1990 to 5.63 per 100 000 in 2005, and then dropped quickly to 1.70 per 100 000 in 2019. Brazil was the first country to reverse the upward trend of HIV/AIDS-tuberculosis (HIV-TB) mortality in 1995, and achieved the most significant reduction (-3.32% per year). The HIV-TB mortality in South Africa has realised much progress since 2006, but still has the heaviest HIV-TB burden across the BRICS (ASMR: 70.0 per 100 000 in 2019). We also found unfavourable trends among HIV-negative middle-aged (35-55) adults of India, men over 50 in the HIV-negative population and whole HIV-positive population of South Africa, and women aged 45-55 years of Russia. China had little progress in its HIV-positive population with worsening period risks from 2010 to 2019, and higher risks in the younger cohorts born after 1980. Interpretation: BRICS' actions on controlling tuberculosis achieved positive results, but the overall improvements were less than those in high-income Asia Pacific countries. BRICS and other high-burden countries should strengthen specified public health approaches and policies targeted at different priority groups in each country. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073573; 72074009), Peking University Global Health and Infectious Diseases Group.

Mixed exposure to phenol, parabens, pesticides, and phthalates and insulin resistance in NHANES: A mixture approach.

PURPOSE: The effects of environmental chemicals on insulin resistance have attracted extensive attention. Previous studies typically focused on the single chemical effects. This study adopted three different models to analyze the mixed effects of nine common chemicals (one phenol, two parabens, two chlorophenols and four phthalates) on insulin resistance. METHODS: Urinary concentrations of chemicals were extracted from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2016. Insulin resistance was assessed using homeostatic model assessment (HOMA) and defined as HOMA-IR >2.6. The generalized linear regression (GLM), weighted quantile sum regression (WQS) and Bayesian kernel machine regression models (BKMR) were applied to assess the relationship between chemical mixture and HOMA-IR or insulin resistance. RESULTS: Of the 2067 participants included, 872 (42.19 %) were identified as insulin resistant. In single-chemical GLM model, di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) had the highest parameter (ß/OR, 95 % CIs) of 0.21 (quartile 4, 0.12- 0.29) and 1.95 (quartile 4, 1.39- 2.74). Similar results were observed in the multi-chemical models, with DEHP (quartile 4) showing the positive relationship with HOMA-IR (0.18, 0.08- 0.28) and insulin resistance (1.76, 1.17- 2.64). According to WQS models, the WQS indices were significantly positively correlated with both HOMA-IR (ß: 0.07, 95 % CI: 0.03- 0.12) and insulin resistance (OR: 1.25, 95 % CI: 1.03- 1.53). DEHP was the top-weighted chemical positively correlated with both HOMA-IR and insulin resistance. In the BKMR model, the joint effect was also positively correlated with both outcomes. DEHP remained the main contributor to the joint effect, consistent with WQS analysis. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggested that these chemical mixtures had the positive joint effects on both HOMA-IR and insulin resistance, with DEHP being the potentially predominant driver. The inter-validation of the three models may indicate that reducing the DEHP concentration could improve glucose homeostasis and reduce the risk of insulin resistance. However, further studies are recommended to deepen our findings and elucidate the mechanisms of insulin resistance and chemical mixture.

Type-2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM): Spatial-temporal Patterns of Incidence, Mortality and Attributable Risk Factors from 1990 to 2019 among 21 World Regions.

PURPOSE: Type-2 diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. This study examines temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of T2DM in the last three decades. DATA AND METHODS: The estimates of age, sex and location-wise incident cases, deaths, prevalent cases, and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) and risk factors for 21 regions and 204 countries are retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study from 1990 to 2019. Socio-demographic index (SDI) is used as the indicator of the development status of countries, and quadratic regression is employed to examine the relationship between country-level age-standardized rates and SDI. RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of T2DM more than doubled from 8.4 million[95% uncertainty interval, 7.8-9.1 million] in 1990 to 21.7 million[20.0-23.5 million] in 2019, and deaths more than doubled from 606,407[573,069-637,508] to 1.5 million[1.4-1.6 million] between 1990 and 2019. Global T2DM prevalence increased from 148.4 million[135.5-162.6 million] in 1990 to 437.9 million[402.0-477.0 million] in 2019. In 2019, global age-standardized prevalence rate stood at 5282.8/100,000[4853.6-5752.1], varying from 2174.5/100,000[1924.3-2470.5] in Mongolia to 19876.8/100,000[18211.1-21795.3] in American Samoa. SDI exhibited inverted-U shaped relationship with country-level age-standardised rates. Globally, high body-mass-index (51.9%), ambient particulate matter pollution (13.6%), smoking (9.9%) and secondhand smoke (8.7%) were the major contributing risk factors towards T2DM DALYs in 2019. CONCLUSION: With ubiquitously rising prevalent cases globally, particularly in low and middle-income countries and regions, T2DM requires immediate attention and targeted policy response worldwide centered on lifestyle interventions (e.g., physical activity, smoking, diet, and obesity), air pollution control and cost-effective timely treatment.

The trend in delayed childbearing and its potential consequences on pregnancy outcomes: a single center 9-years retrospective cohort study in Hubei, China.

BACKGROUND: Due to the advancement of modern societies, the proportion of women who delay childbearing until or beyond 30 years has dramatically increased in the last three decades and has been linked with adverse maternal-neonatal outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine the trend in delayed childbearing and its negative impact on pregnancy outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A tertiary hospital-based retrospective study was conducted in Wuhan University Renmin Hospital, Hubei Province, China, during the years 2011-2019. The joinpoint regression analysis was used to find a trend in the delayed childbearing and the multiple binary logistic regression model was used to estimate the association between maternal age and pregnancy outcomes. RESULTS: Between 2011 and 2019, the trend in advanced maternal age (AMA ≥35 years) increased by 75% [AAPC 7.5% (95% CI: - 10.3, 28.9)]. Based on maternal education and occupation, trend in AMA increased by 130% [AAPC 11.8% (95% CI: 1.1, 23.7)] in women of higher education level, and 112.5% [AAPC 10.1% (95% CI: 9.4, 10.9)] in women of professional services. After adjusting for confounding factors, AMA was significantly associated with increased risk of gestational hypertension (aOR 1.5; 95% CI: 1.2, 2.1), preeclampsia (aOR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4, 1.9), sever preeclampsia (aOR 1.7; 95% CI: 1.1, 2.6), placenta previa (aOR 1.8; 95% CI: 1.5, 2.2), gestational diabetes mellitus (aOR 2.5; 95% CI: 2.3, 2.9), preterm births (aOR 1.6; 95% CI: 1.4, 1.7), perinatal mortality (aOR 1.8; 95% CI: 1.3, 2.3), and low birth weight (aOR 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4) compared with women aged < 30 years. CONCLUSION: Our findings show a marked increase in delayed childbearing and its negative association with pregnancy outcomes.

Epidemiological and sociodemographic transitions of female breast cancer incidence, death, case fatality and DALYs in 21 world regions and globally, from 1990 to 2017: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Introduction: Breast cancer (BC) is the most widely studied disease due to its higher prevalence, heterogeneity and mortality. Objectives: This study aimed to compare female BC trends among 21 world regions and globally over 28 year of data and to assess the association between sociodemographic transitions and female BC risks. Methods: We used Global burden of disease study data and measure the female BC burden according to 21 world regions and sociodemographic indices (SDI). Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to estimate time and cohort trend of BC in different SDI regions. Results: By world regions, age-standardised rate of female BC incidence were high in high-income-North America (ASR, 92.9; (95 %UI, 89.2, 96.6)), Western Europe (84.7; (73.4, 97.2)) and Australia (86; (81.7, 90.2)) in 2017. Whereas this rate was significantly increased by 89.5% between 1990 and 2017 in East Asia. We observed negative association between SDI and death, and DALYs in 25th and below percentiles of death and DALYs for the worldwide regions. Further, there was observed a strong negative correlation between SDI and case fatality percent (r2017 = -0.93; r1990 = -0.92) in both 2017 and 1990 worldwide and highest case fatality percentage was observed in Central Sub-Saharan Africa. Overall, the risk of case-fatality rate tends to decrease most noticeably in high middle SDI countries, and the reduction of the risk of case-fatality rate in the recent cohort was the lowest in the low SDI countries. Conclusions: Remarkable variations exist among various regions in BC burden. There is a need to reduce the health burden from BC in less developed and under developing countries, because under-developed countries are facing higher degree of health-related burden. Public health managers should execute more classified and cost-effective screening and treatment interferences to lessen the deaths caused by BC, predominantly among middle and low SDI countries having inadequate healthcare supplies.

Association of Serum 25(OH)D, Cadmium, CRP With All-Cause, Cause-Specific Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Introduction: To explore the relationship between serum 25(OH)D, cadmium, and CRP with all-cause mortality among people in diabetic and non-diabetic. Methods: This study used data from the NHANES (2001-2010). Cox regression was used to analyze the relationship between Serum 25(OH)D, cadmium, CRP, and all-cause, cause-specific mortality. We used restricted cubic splines to explore the dose-response relationship between serum 25(OH)D, cadmium, CRP, and all-cause mortality. Results: During a mean follow-up of 9.1 years, the study included 20,221 participants, 2,945 people with diabetes, and 17,276 people without diabetes. Compared with serum 25(OH)D deficiency group in diabetic patients, the sufficient serum 25(OH)D group was associated with lower all-cause mortality (HR = 0.41, 95%CI 0.28-0.60, P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (HR = 0.46, 95%CI 0.22-0.95, P = 0.04). Compared with the low cadmium group, the high cadmium group was associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR = 1.49, 95%CI 1.06-2.09, P = 0.02). Compared with the low CRP group, the high CRP group was associated with higher all-cause mortality (HR = 1.65, 95%CI 1.24-2.19, P = 0.001) and cancer mortality (HR = 3.25, 95%CI 1.82-5.80, P < 0.001). Restricted cubic splines analysis showed a significant nonlinear association between serum 25(OH)D (P-nonlinearity P < 0.001), cadmium (P-nonlinearity = 0.002), CRP (P-nonlinearity = 0.003), and HR for all-cause mortality risk in diabetic patients. The results were similar among non-diabetic patients, but with different levels of risk. Sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis presented the results of population studies with different follow-up times, different genders and ages. Conclusions: In diabetic patients, serum 25(OH)D, cadmium, and CRP were related to all-cause mortality; serum 25(OH)D was related to cardiovascular mortality; CRP was related to cancer mortality. The results were similar among non-diabetic patients, but with different levels of risk.