Childhood mortality and associated factors in Migori County, Kenya: evidence from a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVES: The under-five mortality (U5M) rate in Kenya (41 per 1000 live births) remains significantly above international goals (25 per 1000 live births). This is further exacerbated by regional inequalities in mortality. We aimed to describe U5M in Migori County, Kenya, and identify associated factors that can serve as programming targets. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational survey. SETTING: Areas served by the Lwala Community Alliance and control areas in Migori County, Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: This study included 15 199 children born to respondents during the 18 years preceding the survey. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was mortality in the first 5 years of life. The survey was powered to detect a 10% change in various health metrics over time with 80% power. RESULTS: A total of 15 199 children were included in the primary analyses, and 230 (1.5%) were deceased before the fifth birthday. The U5M rate from 2016 to 2021 was 32.2 per 1000 live births. Factors associated with U5M included year of birth (HR 0.926, p<0.001), female sex (HR 0.702, p=0.01), parental marriage (HR 0.642, p=0.036), multiple gestation pregnancy (HR 2.776, p<0.001), birth spacing less than 18 months (HR 1.894, p=0.005), indoor smoke exposure (HR 1.916, p=0.027) and previous familial contribution to the National Hospital Insurance Fund (HR 0.553, p=0.009). The most common cause of death was malaria. CONCLUSIONS: We describe factors associated with childhood mortality in a Kenyan community using survival analyses of complete birth histories. Mortality rates will serve as the baseline for future programme evaluation as a part of a 10-year study design. This provides both the hyperlocal information needed to improve programming and generalisable conclusions for other organisations working in similar environments.

The clinical burden of malaria in Nairobi: a historical review and contemporary audit.

BACKGROUND: Widespread urbanization over the next 20 years has the potential to drastically change the risk of malaria within Africa. The burden of the disease, its management, risk factors and appropriateness of targeted intervention across varied urban environments in Africa remain largely undefined. This paper presents a combined historical and contemporary review of the clinical burden of malaria within one of Africa's largest urban settlements, Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: A review of historical reported malaria case burdens since 1911 within Nairobi was undertaken using archived government and city council reports. Contemporary information on out-patient case burdens due to malaria were assembled from the National Health Management and Information System (HMIS). Finally, an audit of 22 randomly selected health facilities within Nairobi was undertaken covering 12 months 2009-2010. The audit included interviews with health workers, and a checklist of commodities and guidelines necessary to diagnose, treat and record malaria. RESULTS: From the 1930's through to the mid-1960's malaria incidence declined coincidental with rapid population growth. During this period malaria notification and prevention were a priority for the city council. From 2001-2008 reporting systems for malaria were inadequate to define the extent or distribution of malaria risk within Nairobi. A more detailed facility review suggests, however that malaria remains a common diagnosis (11% of all paediatric diagnoses made) and where laboratories (n = 15) exist slide positivity rates are on average 15%. Information on the quality of diagnosis, slide reading and whether those reported as positive were imported infections was not established. The facilities and health workers included in this study were not universally prepared to treat malaria according to national guidelines or identify foci of risks due to shortages of national first-line drugs, inadequate record keeping and a view among some health workers (17%) that slide negative patients could still have malaria. CONCLUSION: Combined with historical evidence there is a strong suggestion that very low risks of locally acquired malaria exist today within Nairobi's city limits and this requires further investigation. To be prepared for effective prevention and case-management of malaria among a diverse, mobile population in Nairobi requires a major paradigm shift and investment in improved quality of malaria diagnosis and case management, health system strengthening and case reporting.