Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves.

BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS: To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS: We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

Mathematical models of Plasmodium vivax transmission: A scoping review.

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should focus on refining how key aspects of P. vivax dynamics are modelled, including spatial heterogeneity in exposure risk and heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, the accumulation of hypnozoite variation, the interaction between P. falciparum and P. vivax, acquisition of immunity, and recovery under superinfection.

Comparing malaria risk exposure in rural Cambodia population using GPS tracking and questionnaires.

BACKGROUND: The Great Mekong Subregion has attained a major decline in malaria cases and fatalities over the last years, but residual transmission hotspots remain, supposedly fueled by forest workers and migrant populations. This study aimed to: (i) characterize the fine-scale mobility of forest-goers and understand links between their daily movement patterns and malaria transmission, using parasites detection via real time polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) and the individual exposure to Anopheles bites by quantification of anti-Anopheles saliva antibodies via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay; (ii) assess the concordance of questionnaires and Global Positioning System (GPS) data loggers for measuring mobility. METHODS: Two 28 day follow-ups during dry and rainy seasons, including a GPS tracking, questionnaires and health examinations, were performed on male forest goers representing the population at highest risk of infection. Their time spent in different land use categories and demographic data were analyzed in order to understand the risk factors driving malaria in the study area. RESULTS: Malaria risk varied with village forest cover and at a resolution of only a few kilometers: participants from villages outside the forest had the highest malaria prevalence compared to participants from forest fringe's villages. The time spent in a specific environment did not modulate the risk of malaria, in particular the time spent in forest was not associated with a higher probability to detect malaria among forest-goers. The levels of antibody response to Anopheles salivary peptide among participants were significantly higher during the rainy season, in accordance with Anopheles mosquito density variation, but was not affected by sociodemographic and mobility factors. The agreement between GPS and self-reported data was only 61.9% in reporting each kind of visited environment. CONCLUSIONS: In a context of residual malaria transmission which was mainly depicted by P. vivax asymptomatic infections, the implementation of questionnaires, GPS data-loggers and quantification of anti-saliva Anopheles antibodies on the high-risk group were not powerful enough to detect malaria risk factors associated with different mobility behaviours or time spent in various environments. The joint implementation of GPS trackers and questionnaires allowed to highlight the limitations of both methodologies and the benefits of using them together. New detection and follow-up strategies are still called for.

Chronic malaria exposure is associated with inhibitory markers on T cells that correlate with atypical memory and marginal zone-like B cells.

Chronic immune activation from persistent malaria infections can induce immunophenotypic changes associated with T-cell exhaustion. However, associations between T and B cells during chronic exposure remain undefined. We analyzed peripheral blood mononuclear cells from malaria-exposed pregnant women from Papua New Guinea and Spanish malaria-naïve individuals using flow cytometry to profile T-cell exhaustion markers phenotypically. T-cell lineage (CD3, CD4, and CD8), inhibitory (PD1, TIM3, LAG3, CTLA4, and 2B4), and senescence (CD28-) markers were assessed. Dimensionality reduction methods revealed increased PD1, TIM3, and LAG3 expression in malaria-exposed individuals. Manual gating confirmed significantly higher frequencies of PD1+CD4+ and CD4+, CD8+, and double-negative (DN) T cells expressing TIM3 in malaria-exposed individuals. Increased frequencies of T cells co-expressing multiple markers were also found in malaria-exposed individuals. T-cell data were analyzed with B-cell populations from a previous study where we reported an alteration of B-cell subsets, including increased frequencies of atypical memory B cells (aMBC) and reduction in marginal zone (MZ-like) B cells during malaria exposure. Frequencies of aMBC subsets and MZ-like B cells expressing CD95+ had significant positive correlations with CD28+PD1+TIM3+CD4+ and DN T cells and CD28+TIM3+2B4+CD8+ T cells. Frequencies of aMBC, known to associate with malaria anemia, were inversely correlated with hemoglobin levels in malaria-exposed women. Similarly, inverse correlations with hemoglobin levels were found for TIM3+CD8+ and CD28+PD1+TIM3+CD4+ T cells. Our findings provide further insights into the effects of chronic malaria exposure on circulating B- and T-cell populations, which could impact immunity and responses to vaccination.

Using serological diagnostics to characterize remaining high-incidence pockets of malaria in forest-fringe Cambodia.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decades, the number of malaria cases has drastically reduced in Cambodia. As the overall prevalence of malaria in Cambodia declines, residual malaria transmission becomes increasingly fragmented over smaller remote regions. The aim of this study was to get an insight into the burden and epidemiological parameters of Plasmodium infections on the forest-fringe of Cambodia. METHODS: 950 participants were recruited in the province of Mondulkiri in Cambodia and followed up from 2018 to 2020. Whole-blood samples were processed for Plasmodium spp. identification by PCR as well as for a serological immunoassay. A risk factor analysis was conducted for Plasmodium vivax PCR-detected infections throughout the study, and for P. vivax seropositivity at baseline. To evaluate the predictive effect of seropositivity at baseline on subsequent PCR-positivity, an analysis of P. vivax infection-free survival time stratified by serological status at baseline was performed. RESULTS: Living inside the forest significantly increased the odds of P. vivax PCR-positivity by a factor of 18.3 (95% C.I. 7.7-43.5). Being a male adult was also a significant predictor of PCR-positivity. Similar risk profiles were identified for P. vivax seropositivity. The survival analysis showed that serological status at baseline significantly correlated with subsequent infection. Serology is most informative outside of the forest, where 94.0% (95% C.I. 90.7-97.4%) of seronegative individuals survived infection-free, compared to 32.4% (95% C.I.: 22.6-46.6%) of seropositive individuals. CONCLUSION: This study justifies the need for serological diagnostic assays to target interventions in this region, particularly in demographic groups where a lot of risk heterogeneity persists, such as outside of the forest.

Case Series of Primaquine-Induced Haemolytic Events in Controlled Trials with G6PD Screening.

Primaquine for radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria poses a potentially life-threatening risk of haemolysis in G6PD-deficient patients. Herein, we review five events of acute haemolytic anaemia following the administration of primaquine in four malaria trials from Indonesia, the Solomon Islands, and Vietnam. Five males aged 9 to 48 years were improperly classified as G6PD-normal by various screening procedures and included as subjects in trials of anti-relapse therapy with daily primaquine. Routine safety monitoring by physical examination, urine inspection, and blood haemoglobin (Hb) assessment were performed in all those trials. Early signs of acute haemolysis, i.e., dark urine and haemoglobin drop >20%, occurred only after day 3 and as late as day 8 of primaquine dosing. All patients were hospitalized and fully recovered, all but one following blood transfusion rescue. Hb nadir was 4.7 to 7.9 g/dL. Hospitalization was for 1 to 7 days. Hb levels returned to baseline values 3 to 10 days after transfusion. Failed G6PD screening procedures in these trials led G6PD-deficient patients to suffer harmful exposures to primaquine. The safe application of primaquine anti-relapse therapy requires G6PD screening and anticipation of its failure with a means of prompt detection and rescue from the typically abrupt haemolytic crisis.

Serological assays to measure dimeric IgA antibodies in SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Current serological tests cannot differentiate between total immunoglobulin A (IgA) and dimeric IgA (dIgA) associated with mucosal immunity. Here, we describe two new assays, dIgA-ELISA and dIgA-multiplex bead assay (MBA), that utilize the preferential binding of dIgA to a chimeric form of secretory component, allowing the differentiation between dIgA and monomeric IgA. dIgA responses elicited through severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were measured in (i) a longitudinal panel, consisting of 74 samples (n = 20 individuals) from hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); (ii) a longitudinal panel, consisting of 96 samples (n = 10 individuals) from individuals with mild COVID-19; (iii) a cross-sectional panel with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with mild COVID-19 (n = 199) and (iv) pre-COVID-19 samples (n = 200). The dIgA-ELISA and dIgA-MBA demonstrated a specificity for dIgA of 99% and 98.5%, respectively. Analysis of dIgA responses in the longitudinal panels revealed that 70% (ELISA) and 50% (MBA) of patients elicited a dIgA response by day 20 after PCR diagnosis with a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals with mild COVID-19 displayed increased levels of dIgA within the first 3 weeks after diagnosis but responses appeared to be short lived, compared with sustained IgA levels. However, in samples from hospitalized patients with COVID-19 we observed high and sustained levels of dIgA, up to 245 days after PCR diagnosis. Our results suggest that severe COVID-19 infections are associated with sustained levels of plasma dIgA compared with mild cases.

Anomaly Detection in Endemic Disease Surveillance Data Using Machine Learning Techniques.

Disease surveillance is used to monitor ongoing control activities, detect early outbreaks, and inform intervention priorities and policies. However, data from disease surveillance that could be used to support real-time decisionmaking remain largely underutilised. Using the Brazilian Amazon malaria surveillance dataset as a case study, in this paper we explore the potential for unsupervised anomaly detection machine learning techniques to discover signals of epidemiological interest. We found that our models were able to provide an early indication of outbreak onset, outbreak peaks, and change points in the proportion of positive malaria cases. Specifically, the sustained rise in malaria in the Brazilian Amazon in 2016 was flagged by several models. We found that no single model detected all anomalies across all health regions. Because of this, we provide the minimum number of machine learning models top-k models) to maximise the number of anomalies detected across different health regions. We discovered that the top three models that maximise the coverage of the number and types of anomalies detected across the thirteen health regions are principal component analysis, stochastic outlier selection, and the minimum covariance determinant. Anomaly detection is a potentially valuable approach to discovering patterns of epidemiological importance when confronted with a large volume of data across space and time. Our exploratory approach can be replicated for other diseases and locations to inform monitoring, timely interventions, and actions towards the goal of controlling endemic disease.

Short-course, high-dose primaquine regimens for the treatment of liver-stage vivax malaria in children.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the pharmacokinetics, safety, and tolerability of two high-dose, short-course primaquine (PQ) regimens compared with standard care in children with Plasmodium vivax infections. METHODS: We performed an open-label pediatric dose-escalation study in Madang, Papua New Guinea (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02364583). Children aged 5-10 years with confirmed blood-stage vivax malaria and normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase activity were allocated to one of three PQ treatment regimens in a stepwise design (group A: 0.5 mg/kg once daily for 14 days, group B: 1 mg/kg once daily for 7 days, and group C: 1 mg/kg twice daily for 3.5-days). The study assessments were completed at each treatment time point and fortnightly for 2 months after PQ administration. RESULTS: Between August 2013 and May 2018, 707 children were screened and 73 met the eligibility criteria (15, 40, and 16 allocated to groups A, B, and C, respectively). All children completed the study procedures. The three regimens were safe and generally well tolerated. The pharmacokinetic analysis indicated that an additional weight adjustment of the conventionally recommended milligram per kilogram PQ doses is not necessary to ensure the therapeutic plasma concentrations in pediatric patients. CONCLUSIONS: A novel, ultra-short 3.5-day PQ regimen has potential benefits for improving the treatment outcomes in children with vivax malaria that warrants further investigation in a large-scale clinical trial.

Fetal sex and risk of pregnancy-associated malaria in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic regions: a meta-analysis.

In areas of moderate to intense Plasmodium falciparum transmission, malaria in pregnancy remains a significant cause of low birth weight, stillbirth, and severe anaemia. Previously, fetal sex has been identified to modify the risks of maternal asthma, pre-eclampsia, and gestational diabetes. One study demonstrated increased risk of placental malaria in women carrying a female fetus. We investigated the association between fetal sex and malaria in pregnancy in 11 pregnancy studies conducted in sub-Saharan African countries and Papua New Guinea through meta-analysis using log binomial regression fitted to a random-effects model. Malaria infection during pregnancy and delivery was assessed using light microscopy, polymerase chain reaction, and histology. Five studies were observational studies and six were randomised controlled trials. Studies varied in terms of gravidity, gestational age at antenatal enrolment and bed net use. Presence of a female fetus was associated with malaria infection at enrolment by light microscopy (risk ratio 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.04, 1.24]; P = 0.003; n = 11,729). Fetal sex did not associate with malaria infection when other time points or diagnostic methods were used. There is limited evidence that fetal sex influences the risk of malaria infection in pregnancy.

Using Serological Markers for the Surveillance of Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Scoping Review.

The utilisation of serological surveillance methods for malaria has the potential to identify individuals exposed to Plasmodium vivax, including asymptomatic carriers. However, the application of serosurveillance varies globally, including variations in methodology and transmission context. No systematic review exists describing the advantages and disadvantages of utilising serosurveillance in various settings. Collation and comparison of these results is a necessary first step to standardise and validate the use of serology for the surveillance of P. vivax in specific transmission contexts. A scoping review was performed of P. vivax serosurveillance applications globally. Ninety-four studies were found that met predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. These studies were examined to determine the advantages and disadvantages of serosurveillance experienced in each study. If studies reported seroprevalence results, this information was also captured. Measurement of antibodies serves as a proxy by which individuals exposed to P. vivax may be indirectly identified, including those with asymptomatic infections, which may be missed by other technologies. Other thematic advantages identified included the ease and simplicity of serological assays compared to both microscopy and molecular diagnostics. Seroprevalence rates varied widely from 0-93%. Methodologies must be validated across various transmission contexts to ensure the applicability and comparability of results. Other thematic disadvantages identified included challenges with species cross-reactivity and determining changes in transmission patterns in both the short- and long-term. Serosurveillance requires further refinement to be fully realised as an actionable tool. Some work has begun in this area, but more is required.

Antibody to Plasmodium falciparum Variant Surface Antigens, var Gene Transcription, and ABO Blood Group in Children With Severe or Uncomplicated Malaria.

BACKGROUND: Antibodies to variant surface antigens (VSAs) such as Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) may vary with malaria severity. The influence of ABO blood group on antibody development is not understood. METHODS: Immunoglobulin G antibodies to VSAs in Papua New Guinean children with severe (n = 41) or uncomplicated (n = 30) malaria were measured by flow cytometry using homologous P falciparum isolates. Isolates were incubated with ABO-matched homologous and heterologous acute and convalescent plasma. RNA was used to assess var gene transcription. RESULTS: Antibodies to homologous, but not heterologous, isolates were boosted in convalescence. The relationship between antibody and severity varied by blood group. Antibodies to VSAs were similar in severe and uncomplicated malaria at presentation, higher in severe than uncomplicated malaria in convalescence, and higher in children with blood group O than other children. Six var gene transcripts best distinguished severe from uncomplicated malaria, including UpsA and 2 CIDRα1 domains. CONCLUSIONS: ABO blood group may influence antibody acquisition to VSAs and susceptibility to severe malaria. Children in Papua New Guinea showed little evidence of acquisition of cross-reactive antibodies following malaria. Var gene transcripts in Papua New Guinean children with severe malaria were similar to those reported from Africa.

Accelerating towards P. vivax elimination with a novel serological test-and-treat strategy: a modelling case study in Brazil.

Background: Plasmodium vivax malaria is challenging to control and eliminate. Treatment with radical cure drugs fails to target the hidden asymptomatic and hypnozoite reservoirs in populations. PvSeroTAT, a novel serological test-and-treat intervention using a serological diagnostic to screen hypnozoite carriers for radical cure eligibility and treatment, could accelerate P. vivax elimination. Methods: Using a previously developed mathematical model of P. vivax transmission adapted to the Brazilian context as a case study for implementation, we evaluate the public health impact of various deployment strategies of PvSeroTAT as a mass campaign. We compare relative reductions in prevalence, cases averted, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) tests, and treatment doses of PvSeroTAT campaigns to strengthened case management alone or mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns across different settings. Findings: Deploying a single round of PvSeroTAT with 80% coverage to treat cases with a high efficacy radical cure regimen with primaquine is predicted to reduce point population prevalence by 22.5% [95% UI: 20.2%-24.8%] in a peri-urban setting with high transmission and by 25.2% [95% UI: 9.6%-42.2%] in an occupational setting with moderate transmission. In the latter example, while a single PvSeroTAT achieves 9.2% less impact on prevalence and averts 300 less cases per 100,000 than a single MDA (25.2% [95% UI: 9.6%-42.2%] point prevalence reduction versus 34.4% [95% UI: 24.9%-44%]), PvSeroTAT requires 4.6 times less radical cure treatments and G6PD tests. Layering strengthened case management and deploying four rounds of PvSeroTAT six months apart is predicted to reduce point prevalence by a mean of 74.1% [95% UI: 61.3%-86.3%] or more in low transmission settings with less than 10 cases per 1000 population. Interpretation: Modelling predicts that mass campaigns with PvSeroTAT are predicted to reduce P. vivax parasite prevalence across a range of transmission settings and require fewer resources than MDA. In combination with strengthened case management, mass campaigns of serological test-and-treat interventions can accelerate towards P. vivax elimination. Funding: This project was funded in part by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Health and Medical Research Council.

Transcriptomic analysis of albendazole resistance in human diarrheal parasite Giardia duodenalis.

Benzimidazole-2-carbamates (BZ, e.g., albendazole; ALB), which bind ß-tubulin to disrupt microtubule polymerization, are one of two primary compound classes used to treat giardiasis. In most parasitic nematodes and fungi, BZ-resistance is caused by ß-tubulin mutations and its molecular mode of action (MOA) is well studied. In contrast, in Giardia duodenalis BZ MOA or resistance is less well understood, may involve target-specific and broader impacts including cellular damage and oxidative stress, and its underlying cause is not clearly determined. Previously, we identified acquisition of a single nucleotide polymorphism, E198K, in ß-tubulin in ALB-resistant (ALB-R) G. duodenalis WB-1B relative to ALB-sensitive (ALB-S) parental controls. E198K is linked to BZ-resistance in fungi and its allelic frequency correlated with the magnitude of BZ-resistance in G. duodenalis WB-1B. Here, we undertook detailed transcriptomic comparisons of these ALB-S and ALB-R G. duodenalis WB-1B cultures. The primary transcriptional changes with ALB-R in G. duodenalis WB-1B indicated increased protein degradation and turnover, and up-regulation of tubulin, and related genes, associated with the adhesive disc and basal bodies. These findings are consistent with previous observations noting focused disintegration of the disc and associated structures in Giardia duodenalis upon ALB exposure. We also saw transcriptional changes with ALB-R in G. duodenalis WB-1B consistent with prior observations of a shift from glycolysis to arginine metabolism for ATP production and possible changes to aspects of the vesicular trafficking system that require further investigation. Finally, we saw mixed transcriptional changes associated with DNA repair and oxidative stress responses in the G. duodenalis WB-1B line. These changes may be indicative of a role for H2O2 degradation in ALB-R, as has been observed in other G. duodenalis cell cultures. However, they were below the transcriptional fold-change threshold (log2FC > 1) typically employed in transcriptomic analyses and appear to be contradicted in ALB-R G. duodenalis WB-1B by down-regulation of the NAD scavenging and conversion pathways required to support these stress pathways and up-regulation of many highly oxidation sensitive iron-sulphur (FeS) cluster based metabolic enzymes.

The spatial signature of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections: quantifying the clustering of infections in cross-sectional surveys and cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Over the last decades, enormous successes have been achieved in reducing malaria burden globally. In Latin America, South East Asia, and the Western Pacific, many countries now pursue the goal of malaria elimination by 2030. It is widely acknowledged that Plasmodium spp. infections cluster spatially so that interventions need to be spatially informed, e.g. spatially targeted reactive case detection strategies. Here, the spatial signature method is introduced as a tool to quantify the distance around an index infection within which other infections significantly cluster. METHODS: Data were considered from cross-sectional surveys from Brazil, Thailand, Cambodia, and Solomon Islands, conducted between 2012 and 2018. Household locations were recorded by GPS and finger-prick blood samples from participants were tested for Plasmodium infection by PCR. Cohort studies from Brazil and Thailand with monthly sampling over a year from 2013 until 2014 were also included. The prevalence of PCR-confirmed infections was calculated at increasing distance around index infections (and growing time intervals in the cohort studies). Statistical significance was defined as prevalence outside of a 95%-quantile interval of a bootstrap null distribution after random re-allocation of locations of infections. RESULTS: Prevalence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections was elevated in close proximity around index infections and decreased with distance in most study sites, e.g. from 21.3% at 0 km to the global study prevalence of 6.4% for P. vivax in the Cambodian survey. In the cohort studies, the clustering decreased with longer time windows. The distance from index infections to a 50% reduction of prevalence ranged from 25 m to 3175 m, tending to shorter distances at lower global study prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial signatures of P. vivax and P. falciparum infections demonstrate spatial clustering across a diverse set of study sites, quantifying the distance within which the clustering occurs. The method offers a novel tool in malaria epidemiology, potentially informing reactive intervention strategies regarding radius choices of operations around detected infections and thus strengthening malaria elimination endeavours.

Identification of novel Plasmodium vivax proteins associated with protection against clinical malaria.

As progress towards malaria elimination continues, the challenge posed by the parasite species Plasmodium vivax has become more evident. In many regions co-endemic for P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, as transmission has declined the proportion of cases due to P. vivax has increased. Novel tools that directly target P. vivax are thus warranted for accelerated elimination. There is currently no advanced vaccine for P. vivax and only a limited number of potential candidates in the pipeline. In this study we aimed to identify promising P. vivax proteins that could be used as part of a subunit vaccination approach. We screened 342 P. vivax protein constructs for their ability to induce IgG antibody responses associated with protection from clinical disease in a cohort of children from Papua New Guinea. This approach has previously been used to successfully identify novel candidates. We were able to confirm previous results from our laboratory identifying the proteins reticulocyte binding protein 2b and StAR-related lipid transfer protein, as well as at least four novel candidates with similar levels of predicted protective efficacy. Assessment of these P. vivax proteins in further studies to confirm their potential and identify functional mechanisms of protection against clinical disease are warranted.

Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk.

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections which may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation leading to 'temporal heterogeneity' in reactivation risk. In addition, immunity and variation in exposure to infection may be longer-term characteristics of individuals that lead to 'population heterogeneity' in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01640574, NCT01074905, NCT02143934.

Acquisition of antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax antigens in pregnant women living in a low malaria transmission area of Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women have increased susceptibility to Plasmodium falciparum malaria and acquire protective antibodies over successive pregnancies. Most studies that investigated malaria antibody responses in pregnant women are from high transmission areas in sub-Saharan Africa, while reports from Latin America are scarce and inconsistent. The present study sought to explore the development of antibodies against P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax antigens in pregnant women living in a low transmission area in the Brazilian Amazon. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, plasma samples from 408 pregnant women (of whom 111 were infected with P. falciparum, 96 had infections with P. falciparum and P. vivax, and 201 had no Plasmodium infection) were used to measure antibody levels. Levels of IgG and opsonizing antibody to pregnancy-specific variant surface antigens (VSAs) on infected erythrocytes (IEs), 10 recombinant VAR2CSA Duffy binding like (DBL domains), 10 non-pregnancy-specific P. falciparum merozoite antigens, and 10 P. vivax antigens were measured by flow cytometry, ELISA, and multiplex assays. Antibody levels and seropositivity among the groups were compared. RESULTS: Antibodies to VSAs on P. falciparum IEs were generally low but were higher in currently infected women and women with multiple P. falciparum episodes over pregnancy. Many women (21%-69%) had antibodies against each individual VAR2CSA DBL domain, and antibodies to DBLs correlated with each other (r ≥ 0.55, p < 0.0001), but not with antibody to VSA or history of infection. Infection with either malaria species was associated with higher seropositivity rate for antibodies against P. vivax proteins, adjusted odds ratios (95% CI) ranged from 5.6 (3.2, 9.7), p < 0.0001 for PVDBPII-Sal1 to 15.7 (8.3, 29.7), p < 0.0001 for PvTRAg_2. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant Brazilian women had low levels of antibodies to pregnancy-specific VSAs that increased with exposure. They frequently recognized both VAR2CSA DBL domains and P. vivax antigens, but only the latter varied with infection. Apparent antibody prevalence is highly dependent on the assay platform used.

A molecular barcode and web-based data analysis tool to identify imported Plasmodium vivax malaria.

Traditionally, patient travel history has been used to distinguish imported from autochthonous malaria cases, but the dormant liver stages of Plasmodium vivax confound this approach. Molecular tools offer an alternative method to identify, and map imported cases. Using machine learning approaches incorporating hierarchical fixation index and decision tree analyses applied to 799 P. vivax genomes from 21 countries, we identified 33-SNP, 50-SNP and 55-SNP barcodes (GEO33, GEO50 and GEO55), with high capacity to predict the infection's country of origin. The Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for an existing, commonly applied 38-SNP barcode (BR38) exceeded 0.80 in 62% countries. The GEO panels outperformed BR38, with median MCCs > 0.80 in 90% countries at GEO33, and 95% at GEO50 and GEO55. An online, open-access, likelihood-based classifier framework was established to support data analysis (vivaxGEN-geo). The SNP selection and classifier methods can be readily amended for other use cases to support malaria control programs.

Longitudinal IgG antibody responses to Plasmodium vivax blood-stage antigens during and after acute vivax malaria in individuals living in the Brazilian Amazon.

BACKGROUND: To make progress towards malaria elimination, a highly effective vaccine targeting Plasmodium vivax is urgently needed. Evaluating the kinetics of natural antibody responses to vaccine candidate antigens after acute vivax malaria can inform the design of serological markers of exposure and vaccines. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The responses of IgG antibodies to 9 P. vivax vaccine candidate antigens were evaluated in longitudinal serum samples from Brazilian individuals collected at the time of acute vivax malaria and 30, 60, and 180 days afterwards. Antigen-specific IgG correlations, seroprevalence, and half-lives were determined for each antigen using the longitudinal data. Antibody reactivities against Pv41 and PVX_081550 strongly correlated with each other at each of the four time points. The analysis identified robust responses in terms of magnitude and seroprevalence against Pv41 and PvGAMA at 30 and 60 days. Among the 8 P. vivax antigens demonstrating >50% seropositivity across all individuals, antibodies specific to PVX_081550 had the longest half-life (100 days; 95% CI, 83-130 days), followed by PvRBP2b (91 days; 95% CI, 76-110 days) and Pv12 (82 days; 95% CI, 64-110 days). CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides an in-depth assessment of the kinetics of antibody responses to key vaccine candidate antigens in Brazilians with acute vivax malaria. Follow-up studies are needed to determine whether the longer-lived antibody responses induced by natural infection are effective in controlling blood-stage infection and mediating clinical protection.