Toward Realizing the Promise of AI in Precision Health Across the Spectrum of Care.

Significant progress has been made in augmenting clinical decision-making using artificial intelligence (AI) in the context of secondary and tertiary care at large academic medical centers. For such innovations to have an impact across the spectrum of care, additional challenges must be addressed, including inconsistent use of preventative care and gaps in chronic care management. The integration of additional data, including genomics and data from wearables, could prove critical in addressing these gaps, but technical, legal, and ethical challenges arise. On the technical side, approaches for integrating complex and messy data are needed. Data and design imperfections like selection bias, missing data, and confounding must be addressed. In terms of legal and ethical challenges, while AI has the potential to aid in leveraging patient data to make clinical care decisions, we also risk exacerbating existing disparities. Organizations implementing AI solutions must carefully consider how they can improve care for all and reduce inequities.

To weight or not to weight? The effect of selection bias in 3 large electronic health record-linked biobanks and recommendations for practice.

OBJECTIVES: To develop recommendations regarding the use of weights to reduce selection bias for commonly performed analyses using electronic health record (EHR)-linked biobank data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We mapped diagnosis (ICD code) data to standardized phecodes from 3 EHR-linked biobanks with varying recruitment strategies: All of Us (AOU; n = 244 071), Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI; n = 81 243), and UK Biobank (UKB; n = 401 167). Using 2019 National Health Interview Survey data, we constructed selection weights for AOU and MGI to represent the US adult population more. We used weights previously developed for UKB to represent the UKB-eligible population. We conducted 4 common analyses comparing unweighted and weighted results. RESULTS: For AOU and MGI, estimated phecode prevalences decreased after weighting (weighted-unweighted median phecode prevalence ratio [MPR]: 0.82 and 0.61), while UKB estimates increased (MPR: 1.06). Weighting minimally impacted latent phenome dimensionality estimation. Comparing weighted versus unweighted phenome-wide association study for colorectal cancer, the strongest associations remained unaltered, with considerable overlap in significant hits. Weighting affected the estimated log-odds ratio for sex and colorectal cancer to align more closely with national registry-based estimates. DISCUSSION: Weighting had a limited impact on dimensionality estimation and large-scale hypothesis testing but impacted prevalence and association estimation. When interested in estimating effect size, specific signals from untargeted association analyses should be followed up by weighted analysis. CONCLUSION: EHR-linked biobanks should report recruitment and selection mechanisms and provide selection weights with defined target populations. Researchers should consider their intended estimands, specify source and target populations, and weight EHR-linked biobank analyses accordingly.

Cross-Sectional Associations between Prenatal Per- and Poly-Fluoroalkyl Substances and Bioactive Lipids in Three Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Cohorts.

Prenatal per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure may influence gestational outcomes through bioactive lipids─metabolic and inflammation pathway indicators. We estimated associations between prenatal PFAS exposure and bioactive lipids, measuring 12 serum PFAS and 50 plasma bioactive lipids in 414 pregnant women (median 17.4 weeks' gestation) from three Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes Program cohorts. Pairwise association estimates across cohorts were obtained through linear mixed models and meta-analysis, adjusting the former for false discovery rates. Associations between the PFAS mixture and bioactive lipids were estimated using quantile g-computation. Pairwise analyses revealed bioactive lipid levels associated with PFDeA, PFNA, PFOA, and PFUdA (p < 0.05) across three enzymatic pathways (cyclooxygenase, cytochrome p450, lipoxygenase) in at least one combined cohort analysis, and PFOA and PFUdA (q < 0.2) in one linear mixed model. The strongest signature revealed doubling in PFOA corresponding with PGD2 (cyclooxygenase pathway; +24.3%, 95% CI: 7.3-43.9%) in the combined cohort. Mixture analysis revealed nine positive associations across all pathways with the PFAS mixture, the strongest signature indicating a quartile increase in the PFAS mixture associated with PGD2 (+34%, 95% CI: 8-66%), primarily driven by PFOS. Bioactive lipids emerged as prenatal PFAS exposure biomarkers, deepening insights into PFAS' influence on pregnancy outcomes.

Improving prediction models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) using polygenic, pre-existing conditions, and survey-based risk scores in the UK Biobank.

Background and Objectives: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) causes profound impairments in neurological function and a cure for this devastating disease remains elusive. Early detection and risk stratification are crucial for timely intervention and improving patient outcomes. This study aimed to identify predisposing genetic, phenotypic, and exposure-related factors for Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis using multi-modal data and assess their joint predictive potential. Methods: Utilizing data from the UK Biobank, we analyzed an unrelated set of 292 ALS cases and 408,831 controls of European descent. Two polygenic risk scores (PRS) are constructed: "GWAS Hits PRS" and "PRS-CS," reflecting oligogenic and polygenic ALS risk profiles, respectively. Time-restricted phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) were performed to identify pre-existing conditions increasing ALS risk, integrated into phenotypic risk scores (PheRS). A poly-exposure score ("PXS") captures the influence of environmental exposures measured through survey questionnaires. We evaluate the performance of these scores for predicting ALS incidence and stratifying risk, adjusting for baseline demographic covariates. Results: Both PRSs modestly predicted ALS diagnosis, but with increased predictive power when combined (covariate-adjusted receiver operating characteristic [AAUC] = 0.584 [0.525, 0.639]). PheRS incorporated diagnoses 1 year before ALS onset (PheRS1) modestly discriminated cases from controls (AAUC = 0.515 [0.472, 0.564]). The "PXS" did not significantly predict ALS. However, a model incorporating PRSs and PheRS1 improved prediction of ALS (AAUC = 0.604 [0.547, 0.667]), outperforming a model combining all risk scores. This combined risk score identified the top 10% of risk score distribution with a 4-fold higher ALS risk (95% CI: [2.04, 7.73]) versus those in the 40%-60% range. Discussions: By leveraging UK Biobank data, our study uncovers predisposing ALS factors, highlighting the improved effectiveness of multi-factorial prediction models to identify individuals at highest risk for ALS.

Residential exposure associations with ALS risk, survival, and phenotype: a Michigan-based case-control study.

Background: Environmental exposures impact amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) risk and progression, a fatal and progressive neurodegenerative disease. Better characterization of these exposures is needed to decrease disease burden. Objective: To identify exposures in the residential setting that associate with ALS risk, survival, and onset segment. Methods: ALS and control participants recruited from University of Michigan completed a survey that ascertained exposure risks in the residential setting. ALS risk was assessed using logistic regression models followed by latent profile analysis to consider exposure profiles. A case-only analysis considered the contribution of the residential exposure variables via a Cox proportional hazards model for survival outcomes and multinomial logistic regression for onset segment, a polytomous outcome. Results: This study included 367 ALS and 255 control participants. Twelve residential variables were associated with ALS risk after correcting for multiple comparison testing, with storage in an attached garage of chemical products including gasoline or kerosene (odds ratio (OR) = 1.14, padjusted < 0.001), gasoline-powered equipment (OR = 1.16, padjusted < 0.001), and lawn care products (OR = 1.15, padjusted < 0.001) representing the top three risk factors sorted by padjusted. Latent profile analysis indicated that storage of these chemical products in both attached and detached garages increased ALS risk. Although residential variables were not associated with poorer ALS survival following multiple testing corrections, storing pesticides, lawn care products, and woodworking supplies in the home were associated with shorter ALS survival using nominal p values. No exposures were associated with ALS onset segment. Conclusion: Residential exposures may be important modifiable components of the ALS susceptibility and prognosis exposome.

Associations of maternal blood metal concentrations with plasma eicosanoids among pregnant women in Puerto Rico.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Heavy metals are known to induce oxidative stress and inflammation, and the association between metal exposure and adverse birth outcomes is well established. However, there lacks research on biomarker profiles linking metal exposures and adverse birth outcomes. Eicosanoids are lipid molecules that regulate inflammation in the body, and there is growing evidence that suggests associations between plasma eicosanoids and pregnancy outcomes. Eicosanoids may aid our understanding of etiologic birth pathways. Here, we assessed associations between maternal blood metal concentrations with eicosanoid profiles among 654 pregnant women in the Puerto Rico PROTECT birth cohort. METHODS: We measured concentrations of 11 metals in whole blood collected at median 18 and 26 weeks of pregnancy, and eicosanoid profiles measured in plasma collected at median 26 weeks. Multivariable linear models were used to regress eicosanoids on metals concentrations. Effect modification by infant sex was explored using interaction terms. RESULTS: A total of 55 eicosanoids were profiled. Notably, 12-oxoeicosatetraenoic acid (12-oxoETE) and 15-oxoeicosatetraenoic acid (15-oxoETE), both of which exert inflammatory activities, had the greatest number of significant associations with metal concentrations. These eicosanoids were associated with increased concentrations of Cu, Mn, and Zn, and decreased concentrations of Cd, Co, Ni, and Pb, with the strongest effect sizes observed for 12-oxoETE and Pb (ß:-33.5,95 %CI:-42.9,-22.6) and 15-oxoETE and Sn (ß:43.2,95 %CI:11.4,84.1). Also, we observed differences in metals-eicosanoid associations by infant sex. Particularly, Cs and Mn had the most infant sex-specific significant associations with eicosanoids, which were primarily driven by female fetuses. All significant sex-specific associations with Cs were inverse among females, while significant sex-specific associations with Mn among females were positive within the cyclooxygenase group but inverse among the lipoxygenase group. CONCLUSION: Certain metals were significantly associated with eicosanoids that are responsible for regulating inflammatory responses. Eicosanoid-metal associations may suggest a role for eicosanoids in mediating metal-induced adverse birth outcomes.

Statistical methods for chemical mixtures: a roadmap for practitioners.

Quantitative characterization of the health impacts associated with exposure to chemical mixtures has received considerable attention in current environmental and epidemiological studies. With many existing statistical methods and emerging approaches, it is important for practitioners to understand when each method is best suited for their inferential goals. In this study, we conduct a review and comparison of 11 analytical methods available for use in mixtures research, through extensive simulation studies for continuous and binary outcomes. These methods fall in three different classes: identifying important components of a mixture, identifying interactions and creating a summary score for risk stratification and prediction. We carry out an illustrative data analysis in the PROTECT birth cohort from Puerto Rico. Most importantly we develop an integrated package "CompMix" that provides a platform for mixtures analysis where the practitioner can implement a pipeline for several types of mixtures analysis. Our simulation results suggest that the choice of methods depends on the goal of analysis and there is no clear winner across the board. For selection of important toxicants in the mixture and for identifying interactions, Elastic net by Zou et al. (Enet), Lasso for Hierarchical Interactions by Bien et al (HierNet), Selection of nonlinear interactions by a forward stepwise algorithm by Narisetty et al. (SNIF) have the most stable performance across simulation settings. Additionally, the predictive performance of the Super Learner ensembling method by Van de Laan et al. and HierNet are found to be superior to the rest of the methods. For overall summary or a cumulative measure, we find that using the Super Learner to combine multiple Environmental Risk Scores can lead to improved risk stratification properties. We have developed an R package "CompMix: A comprehensive toolkit for environmental mixtures analysis", allowing users to implement a variety of tasks under different settings and compare the findings. In summary, our study offers guidelines for selecting appropriate statistical methods for addressing specific scientific questions related to mixtures research. We identify critical gaps where new and better methods are needed.

Metal mixtures associate with higher amyotrophic lateral sclerosis risk and mortality independent of genetic risk and correlate to self-reported exposures: a case-control study.

Background: The pathogenesis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) involves both genetic and environmental factors. This study investigates associations between metal measures in plasma and urine, ALS risk and survival, and exposure sources. Methods: Participants with and without ALS from Michigan provided plasma and urine samples for metal measurement via inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Odds and hazard ratios for each metal were computed using risk and survival models. Environmental risk scores (ERS) were created to evaluate the association between exposure mixtures and ALS risk and survival and exposure source. ALS (ALS-PGS) and metal (metal-PGS) polygenic risk scores were constructed from an independent genome-wide association study and relevant literature-selected SNPs. Results: Plasma and urine samples from 454 ALS and 294 control participants were analyzed. Elevated levels of individual metals, including copper, selenium, and zinc, significantly associated with ALS risk and survival. ERS representing metal mixtures strongly associated with ALS risk (plasma, OR=2.95, CI=2.38-3.62, p<0.001; urine, OR=3.10, CI=2.43-3.97, p<0.001) and poorer ALS survival (plasma, HR=1.42, CI=1.24-1.63, p<0.001; urine, HR=1.52, CI=1.31-1.76, p<0.001). Addition of the ALS-PGS or metal-PGS did not alter the significance of metals with ALS risk and survival. Occupations with high potential of metal exposure associated with elevated ERS. Additionally, occupational and non-occupational metal exposures associated with measured plasma and urine metals. Conclusion: Metals in plasma and urine associated with increased ALS risk and reduced survival, independent of genetic risk, and correlated with occupational and non-occupational metal exposures. These data underscore the significance of metal exposure in ALS risk and progression.

To weight or not to weight? Studying the effect of selection bias in three large EHR-linked biobanks.

Objective: To explore the role of selection bias adjustment by weighting electronic health record (EHR)-linked biobank data for commonly performed analyses. Materials and methods: We mapped diagnosis (ICD code) data to standardized phecodes from three EHR-linked biobanks with varying recruitment strategies: All of Us (AOU; n=244,071), Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI; n=81,243), and UK Biobank (UKB; n=401,167). Using 2019 National Health Interview Survey data, we constructed selection weights for AOU and MGI to be more representative of the US adult population. We used weights previously developed for UKB to represent the UKB-eligible population. We conducted four common descriptive and analytic tasks comparing unweighted and weighted results. Results: For AOU and MGI, estimated phecode prevalences decreased after weighting (weighted-unweighted median phecode prevalence ratio [MPR]: 0.82 and 0.61), while UKB's estimates increased (MPR: 1.06). Weighting minimally impacted latent phenome dimensionality estimation. Comparing weighted versus unweighted PheWAS for colorectal cancer, the strongest associations remained unaltered and there was large overlap in significant hits. Weighting affected the estimated log-odds ratio for sex and colorectal cancer to align more closely with national registry-based estimates. Discussion: Weighting had limited impact on dimensionality estimation and large-scale hypothesis testing but impacted prevalence and association estimation more. Results from untargeted association analyses should be followed by weighted analysis when effect size estimation is of interest for specific signals. Conclusion: EHR-linked biobanks should report recruitment and selection mechanisms and provide selection weights with defined target populations. Researchers should consider their intended estimands, specify source and target populations, and weight EHR-linked biobank analyses accordingly.

Incorporating functional annotation with bilevel continuous shrinkage for polygenic risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variants can contribute differently to trait heritability by their functional categories, and recent studies have shown that incorporating functional annotation can improve the predictive performance of polygenic risk scores (PRSs). In addition, when only a small proportion of variants are causal variants, PRS methods that employ a Bayesian framework with shrinkage can account for such sparsity. It is possible that the annotation group level effect is also sparse. However, the number of PRS methods that incorporate both annotation information and shrinkage on effect sizes is limited. We propose a PRS method, PRSbils, which utilizes the functional annotation information with a bilevel continuous shrinkage prior to accommodate the varying genetic architectures both on the variant-specific level and on the functional annotation level. RESULTS: We conducted simulation studies and investigated the predictive performance in settings with different genetic architectures. Results indicated that when there was a relatively large variability of group-wise heritability contribution, the gain in prediction performance from the proposed method was on average 8.0% higher AUC compared to the benchmark method PRS-CS. The proposed method also yielded higher predictive performance compared to PRS-CS in settings with different overlapping patterns of annotation groups and obtained on average 6.4% higher AUC. We applied PRSbils to binary and quantitative traits in three real world data sources (the UK Biobank, the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), and the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study (KoGES)), and two sources of annotations: ANNOVAR, and pathway information from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG), and demonstrated that the proposed method holds the potential for improving predictive performance by incorporating functional annotations. CONCLUSIONS: By utilizing a bilevel shrinkage framework, PRSbils enables the incorporation of both overlapping and non-overlapping annotations into PRS construction to improve the performance of genetic risk prediction. The software is available at https://github.com/styvon/PRSbils .

Avocational exposure associations with ALS risk, survival, and phenotype: A Michigan-based case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: Environmental exposures strongly influence ALS risk and identification is needed to reduce ALS burden. Participation in hobbies and exercise may alter ALS risk and phenotype, warranting an assessment to understand their contribution to the ALS exposome. METHODS: Participants with ALS and healthy controls were recruited from University of Michigan and self-completed a survey to ascertain hobbies, exercise, and avocational exposures. Exposure variables were associated with ALS risk, survival, onset segment, and onset age. RESULTS: ALS (n = 400) and control (n = 287) participants self-reported avocational activities. Cases were slightly older (median age 63.0 vs. 61.1 years, p = 0.019) and had a lower educational attainment (p < 0.001) compared to controls; otherwise, demographics were well balanced. Risks associating with ALS after multiple comparison correction included golfing (odds ratio (OR) 3.48, padjusted = 0.004), recreational dancing (OR 2.00, padjusted = 0.040), performing gardening or yard work (OR 1.71, padjusted = 0.040) five years prior to ALS and personal (OR 1.76, padjusted = 0.047) or family (OR 2.21, padjusted = 0.040) participation in woodworking, and personal participation in hunting and shooting (OR 1.89, padjusted = 0.040). No exposures associated with ALS survival and onset. Those reporting swimming (3.86 years, padjusted = 0.016) and weightlifting (3.83 years, padjusted = 0.020) exercise 5 years prior to ALS onset had an earlier onset age. DISCUSSION: The identified exposures in this study may represent important modifiable ALS factors that influence ALS phenotype. Thus, exposures related to hobbies and exercise should be captured in studies examining the ALS exposome.

Environmental risk scores of persistent organic pollutants associate with higher ALS risk and shorter survival in a new Michigan case/control cohort.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal, progressive neurogenerative disease caused by combined genetic susceptibilities and environmental exposures. Identifying and validating these exposures are of paramount importance to modify disease risk. We previously reported that persistent organic pollutants (POPs) associate with ALS risk and survival and aimed to replicate these findings in a new cohort. METHOD: Participants with and without ALS recruited in Michigan provided plasma samples for POPs analysis by isotope dilution with triple quadrupole mass spectrometry. ORs for risk models and hazard ratios for survival models were calculated for individual POPs. POP mixtures were represented by environmental risk scores (ERS), a summation of total exposures, to evaluate the association with risk (ERSrisk) and survival (ERSsurvival). RESULTS: Samples from 164 ALS and 105 control participants were analysed. Several individual POPs significantly associated with ALS, including 8 of 22 polychlorinated biphenyls and 7 of 10 organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). ALS risk was most strongly represented by the mixture effects of OCPs alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane, hexachlorobenzene, trans-nonachlor and cis-nonachlor and an interquartile increase in ERSrisk enhanced ALS risk 2.58 times (p<0.001). ALS survival was represented by the combined mixture of all POPs and an interquartile increase in ERSsurvival enhanced ALS mortality rate 1.65 times (p=0.008). CONCLUSIONS: These data continue to support POPs as important factors for ALS risk and progression and replicate findings in a new cohort. The assessments of POPs in non-Michigan ALS cohorts are encouraged to better understand the global effect and the need for targeted disease risk reduction strategies.

Mortality and Severe Complications Among Newly Graduated Surgeons in the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate severe complications and mortality over years of independent practice among general surgeons. BACKGROUND: Despite concerns that newly graduated general surgeons may be unprepared for independent practice, it is unclear whether patient outcomes differ between early and later career surgeons. METHODS: We used Medicare claims for patients discharged between July 1, 2007 and December 31, 2019 to evaluate 30-day severe complications and mortality for 26 operations defined as core procedures by the American Board of Surgery. Generalized additive mixed models were used to assess the association between surgeon years in practice and 30-day outcomes while adjusting for differences in patient, hospital, and surgeon characteristics. RESULTS: The cohort included 1,329,358 operations performed by 14,399 surgeons. In generalized mixed models, the relative risk (RR) of mortality was higher among surgeons in their first year of practice compared with surgeons in their 15th year of practice [5.5% (95% CI: 4.1%-7.3%) vs 4.7% (95% CI: 3.5%-6.3%), RR: 1.17 (95% CI: 1.11-1.22)]. Similarly, the RR of severe complications was higher among surgeons in their first year of practice compared with surgeons in their 15th year of practice [7.5% (95% CI: 6.6%-8.5%) versus 6.9% (95% CI: 6.1%-7.9%), RR: 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03-1.14)]. When stratified by individual operation, 21 operations had a significantly higher RR of mortality and all 26 operations had a significantly higher RR of severe complications in the first compared with the 15th year of practice. CONCLUSIONS: Among general surgeons performing common operations, rates of mortality and severe complications were higher among newly graduated surgeons compared with later career surgeons.

Using Multi-Modal Electronic Health Record Data for the Development and Validation of Risk Prediction Models for Long COVID Using the Super Learner Algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) have emerged as a global public health and healthcare challenge. This study aimed to uncover predictive factors for PASC from multi-modal data to develop a predictive model for PASC diagnoses. METHODS: We analyzed electronic health records from 92,301 COVID-19 patients, covering medical phenotypes, medications, and lab results. We used a Super Learner-based prediction approach to identify predictive factors. We integrated the model outputs into individual and composite risk scores and evaluated their predictive performance. RESULTS: Our analysis identified several factors predictive of diagnoses of PASC, including being overweight/obese and the use of HMG CoA reductase inhibitors prior to COVID-19 infection, and respiratory system symptoms during COVID-19 infection. We developed a composite risk score with a moderate discriminatory ability for PASC (covariate-adjusted AUC (95% confidence interval): 0.66 (0.63, 0.69)) by combining the risk scores based on phenotype and medication records. The combined risk score could identify 10% of individuals with a 2.2-fold increased risk for PASC. CONCLUSIONS: We identified several factors predictive of diagnoses of PASC and integrated the information into a composite risk score for PASC prediction, which could contribute to the identification of individuals at higher risk for PASC and inform preventive efforts.

Uncovering associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 Severity: A polygenic risk score approach across three large biobanks.

OBJECTIVE: To overcome the limitations associated with the collection and curation of COVID-19 outcome data in biobanks, this study proposes the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) as reliable proxies of COVID-19 severity across three large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), UK Biobank (UKB), and NIH All of Us. The goal is to identify associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 severity. METHODS: Drawing on a sample of more than 500,000 individuals from the three biobanks, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify associations between a PRS for COVID-19 severity, derived from a genome-wide association study on COVID-19 hospitalization, and clinical pre-existing, pre-pandemic phenotypes. We performed cohort-specific PRS PheWAS and a subsequent fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The current study uncovered 23 pre-existing conditions significantly associated with the COVID-19 severity PRS in cohort-specific analyses, of which 21 were observed in the UKB cohort and two in the MGI cohort. The meta-analysis yielded 27 significant phenotypes predominantly related to obesity, metabolic disorders, and cardiovascular conditions. After adjusting for body mass index, several clinical phenotypes, such as hypercholesterolemia and gastrointestinal disorders, remained associated with an increased risk of hospitalization following COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSION: By employing PRS as a proxy for COVID-19 severity, we corroborated known risk factors and identified novel associations between pre-existing clinical phenotypes and COVID-19 severity. Our study highlights the potential value of using PRS when actual outcome data may be limited or inadequate for robust analyses.

Design and analysis heterogeneity in observational studies of COVID-19 booster effectiveness: A review and case study.

We investigated the design and analysis of observational booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies by performing a scoping review of booster VE literature with a focus on study design and analytic choices. We then applied 20 different approaches, including those found in the literature, to a single dataset from Michigan Medicine. We identified 80 studies in our review, including over 150 million observations in total. We found that while protection against infection is variable and dependent on several factors including the study population and time period, both monovalent boosters and particularly the bivalent booster offer strong protection against severe COVID-19. In addition, VE analyses with a severe disease outcome (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or death) appear to be more robust to design and analytic choices than an infection endpoint. In terms of design choices, we found that test-negative designs and their variants may offer advantages in statistical efficiency compared to cohort designs.

Comparative impact assessment of COVID-19 policy interventions in five South Asian countries using reported and estimated unreported death counts during 2020-2021.

There has been raging discussion and debate around the quality of COVID death data in South Asia. According to WHO, of the 5.5 million reported COVID-19 deaths from 2020-2021, 0.57 million (10%) were contributed by five low and middle income countries (LMIC) countries in the Global South: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. However, a number of excess death estimates show that the actual death toll from COVID-19 is significantly higher than the reported number of deaths. For example, the IHME and WHO both project around 14.9 million total deaths, of which 4.5-5.5 million were attributed to these five countries in 2020-2021. We focus our gaze on the COVID-19 performance of these five countries where 23.5% of the world population lives in 2020 and 2021, via a counterfactual lens and ask, to what extent the mortality of one LMIC would have been affected if it adopted the pandemic policies of another, similar country? We use a Bayesian semi-mechanistic model developed by Mishra et al. (2021) to compare both the reported and estimated total death tolls by permuting the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) across these countries over a similar time period. Our analysis shows that, in the first half of 2021, mortality in India in terms of reported deaths could have been reduced to 96 and 102 deaths per million compared to actual 170 reported deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Nepal and Pakistan respectively. In terms of total deaths, India could have averted 481 and 466 deaths per million had it adopted the policies of Bangladesh and Pakistan. On the other hand, India had a lower number of reported COVID-19 deaths per million (48 deaths per million) and a lower estimated total deaths per million (80 deaths per million) in the second half of 2021, and LMICs other than Pakistan would have lower reported mortality had they followed India's strategy. The gap between the reported and estimated total deaths highlights the varying level and extent of under-reporting of deaths across the subcontinent, and that model estimates are contingent on accuracy of the death data. Our analysis shows the importance of timely public health intervention and vaccines for lowering mortality and the need for better coverage infrastructure for the death registration system in LMICs.

The importance of investing in data, models, experiments, team science, and public trust to help policymakers prepare for the next pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about valuable insights regarding models, data, and experiments. In this narrative review, we summarised the existing literature on these three themes, exploring the challenges of providing forecasts, the requirement for real-time linkage of health-related datasets, and the role of 'experimentation' in evaluating interventions. This literature review encourages us to broaden our perspective for the future, acknowledging the significance of investing in models, data, and experimentation, but also to invest in areas that are conceptually more abstract: the value of 'team science', the need for public trust in science, and in establishing processes for using science in policy. Policy-makers rely on model forecasts early in a pandemic when there is little data, and it is vital to communicate the assumptions, limitations, and uncertainties (theme 1). Linked routine data can provide critical information, for example, in establishing risk factors for adverse outcomes but are often not available quickly enough to make a real-time impact. The interoperability of data resources internationally is required to facilitate sharing across jurisdictions (theme 2). Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided timely evidence on the efficacy and safety of vaccinations and pharmaceuticals but were largely conducted in higher income countries, restricting generalisability to low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Trials for non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were almost non-existent which was a missed opportunity (theme 3). Building on these themes from the narrative review, we underscore the importance of three other areas that need investment for effective evidence-driven policy-making. The COVID-19 response relied on strong multidisciplinary research infrastructures, but funders and academic institutions need to do more to incentivise team science (4). To enhance public trust in the use of scientific evidence for policy, researchers and policy-makers must work together to clearly communicate uncertainties in current evidence and any need to change policy as evidence evolves (5). Timely policy decisions require an established two-way process between scientists and policy makers to make the best use of evidence (6). For effective preparedness against future pandemics, it is essential to establish models, data, and experiments as fundamental pillars, complemented by efforts in planning and investment towards team science, public trust, and evidence-based policy-making across international communities. The paper concludes with a 'call to actions' for both policy-makers and researchers.

Cross-sectional associations between prenatal maternal per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances and bioactive lipids in three Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) cohorts.

Background: Per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure can occur through ingestion of contaminated food and water, and inhalation of indoor air contaminated with these chemicals from consumer and industrial products. Prenatal PFAS exposures may confer risk for pregnancy-related outcomes such as hypertensive and metabolic disorders, preterm birth, and impaired fetal development through intermediate metabolic and inflammation pathways. Objective: Estimate associations between maternal pregnancy PFAS exposure (individually and as a mixture) and bioactive lipids. Methods: Our study included pregnant women in the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes Program: Chemicals in our Bodies cohort (CiOB, n=73), Illinois Kids Developmental Study (IKIDS, n=287), and the ECHO-PROTECT cohort (n=54). We measured twelve PFAS in serum and 50 plasma bioactive lipids (parent fatty acids and eicosanoids derived from cytochrome p450, lipoxygenase, and cyclooxygenase) during pregnancy (median 17 gestational weeks). Pairwise associations across cohorts were estimated using linear mixed models and meta-analysis. Associations between the PFAS mixture and individual bioactive lipids were estimated using quantile g-computation. Results: PFDeA, PFOA, and PFUdA were associated (p<0.05) with changes in bioactive lipid levels in all three enzymatic pathways (cyclooxygenase [n=6 signatures]; cytochrome p450 [n=5 signatures]; lipoxygenase [n=7 signatures]) in at least one combined cohort analysis. The strongest signature indicated that a doubling in PFOA corresponded with a 24.3% increase (95% CI [7.3%, 43.9%]) in PGD2 (cyclooxygenase pathway) in the combined cohort. In the mixtures analysis, we observed nine positive signals across all pathways associated with the PFAS mixture. The strongest signature indicated that a quartile increase in the PFAS mixture was associated with a 34% increase in PGD2 (95% CI [8%, 66%]), with PFOS contributing most to the increase. Conclusions: Bioactive lipids were revealed as biomarkers of PFAS exposure and could provide mechanistic insights into PFAS' influence on pregnancy outcomes, informing more precise risk estimation and prevention strategies.

Evaluating Educational Outcomes Using Patient Outcomes of New Surgeons Performing Partial Colectomy Compared to Cholecystectomy.

PURPOSE: Despite ongoing efforts to improve surgical education, surgical residents face gaps in their training. However, it is unknown if differences in the training of surgeons are reflected in the patient outcomes of those surgeons once they enter practice. This study aimed to compare the patient outcomes among new surgeons performing partial colectomy-a common procedure for which training is limited-and cholecystectomy-a common procedure for which training is robust. METHOD: The authors retrospectively analyzed all adult Medicare claims data for patients undergoing inpatient partial colectomy and inpatient cholecystectomy between 2007 and 2018. Generalized additive mixed models were used to investigate the associations between surgeon years in practice and risk-adjusted rates of 30-day serious complications and death for patients undergoing partial colectomy and cholecystectomy. RESULTS: A total of 14,449 surgeons at 4,011 hospitals performed 340,114 partial colectomy and 355,923 cholecystectomy inpatient operations during the study period. Patients undergoing a partial colectomy by a surgeon in their 1st vs 15th year of practice had higher rates of serious complications (5.22% [95% CI, 4.85%-5.60%] vs 4.37% [95% CI, 4.22%-4.52%]; P < .01) and death (3.05% [95% CI, 2.92%-3.17%] vs 2.83% [95% CI, 2.75%-2.91%]; P < .01). Patients undergoing a cholecystectomy by a surgeon in their 1st vs 15th year of practice had similar rates of 30-day serious complications (4.11% vs 3.89%; P = .11) and death (1.71% vs 1.70%; P = .93). CONCLUSIONS: Patients undergoing partial colectomy faced a higher risk of serious complications and death when the operation was performed by a new surgeon compared to an experienced surgeon. Conversely, patient outcomes following cholecystectomy were similar for new and experienced surgeons. More attention to partial colectomy during residency training may benefit patients.