Climate sensitivity functions and net primary production: A framework for incorporating climate mean and variability.

Understanding controls on net primary production (NPP) has been a long-standing goal in ecology. Climate is a well-known control on NPP, although the temporal differences among years within a site are often weaker than the spatial pattern of differences across sites. Climate sensitivity functions describe the relationship between an ecological response (e.g., NPP) and both the mean and variance of its climate driver (e.g., aridity index), providing a novel framework for understanding how climate trends in both mean and variance vary with NPP over time. Nonlinearities in these functions predict whether an increase in climate variance will have a positive effect (convex nonlinearity) or negative effect (concave nonlinearity) on NPP. The influence of climate variance may be particularly intense at ecosystem transition zones, if species reach physiological thresholds that create nonlinearities at these ecotones. Long-term data collected at the confluence of three dryland ecosystems in central New Mexico revealed that each ecosystem exhibited a unique climate sensitivity function that was consistent with long-term vegetation change occurring at their ecotones. Our analysis suggests that rising temperatures in drylands could alter the nonlinearities that determine the relative costs and benefits of variance in precipitation for primary production.

Regional signatures of plant response to drought and elevated temperature across a desert ecosystem.

The performance of many desert plant species in North America may decline with the warmer and drier conditions predicted by climate change models, thereby accelerating land degradation and reducing ecosystem productivity. We paired repeat measurements of plant canopy cover with climate at multiple sites across the Chihuahuan Desert over the last century to determine which plant species and functional types may be the most sensitive to climate change. We found that the dominant perennial grass, Bouteloua eriopoda, and species richness had nonlinear responses to summer precipitation, decreasing more in dry summers than increasing with wet summers. Dominant shrub species responded differently to the seasonality of precipitation and drought, but winter precipitation best explained changes in the cover of woody vegetation in upland grasslands and may contribute to woody-plant encroachment that is widespread throughout the southwestern United States and northern Mexico. Temperature explained additional variability of changes in cover of dominant and subdominant plant species. Using a novel empirically based approach we identified "climate pivot points" that were indicative of shifts from increasing to decreasing plant cover over a range of climatic conditions. Reductions in cover of annual and several perennial plant species, in addition to declines in species richness below the long-term summer precipitation mean across plant communities, indicate a decrease in the productivity for all but the most drought-tolerant perennial grasses and shrubs in the Chihuahuan Desert. Overall, our regional synthesis of long-term data provides a robust foundation for forecasting future shifts in the composition and structure of plant assemblages in the largest North American warm desert.

Aboveground net primary production dynamics in a northern Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem.

Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) dynamics are a key element in the understanding of ecosystem processes. For semiarid environments, the pulse-reserve framework links ANPP to variable and unpredictable precipitation events contingent on surficial hydrology, soil moisture dynamics, biodiversity structure, trophic dynamics, and landscape context. Consequently, ANPP may be decoupled periodically from processes such as decomposition and may be subjected to complex feedbacks and thresholds at broader scales. As currently formulated, the pulse-reserve framework may not encompass the breadth of ANPP response to seasonal patterns of precipitation and heat inputs. Accordingly, we examined a 6-year (1999-2004), seasonal record of ANPP with respect to precipitation, soil moisture dynamics, and functional groups in a black grama (Bouteloua eriopoda) grassland and a creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) shrubland in the northern Chihuahuan Desert. Annual ANPP was similar in the grassland (51.1 g/m(2)) and shrubland (59.2 g/m(2)) and positively correlated with annual precipitation. ANPP differed among communities with respect to life forms and functional groups and responses to abiotic drivers. In keeping with the pulse-reserve model, ANPP in black grama grassland was dominated by warm-season C(4) grasses and subshrubs that responded to large, transient summer storms and associated soil moisture in the upper 30 cm. In contrast, ANPP in creosotebush shrubland occasionally responded to summer moisture, but the predominant pattern was slower, non-pulsed growth of cool-season C(3) shrubs during spring, in response to winter soil moisture accumulation and the breaking of cold dormancy. Overall, production in this Chihuahuan Desert ecosystem reflected a mix of warm-temperate arid land pulse dynamics during the summer monsoon and non-pulsed dynamics in spring driven by winter soil moisture accumulation similar to that of cool-temperate regions.