Elucidating the risk of cardiopulmonary consequences of an exacerbation of COPD: results of the EXACOS-CV study in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) represent a period of vulnerability. This study explored the association between time periods following an exacerbation and the risk of severe cardiovascular (CV) events or death in Germany. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted using routinely collected healthcare data. Individuals with COPD were identified between 2014 and 2018. Exposure was moderate or severe exacerbation of COPD. Periods at risk were the 1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180 and 181-365 days following each exacerbation onset occurring after cohort entry. The main outcome of interest was the first hospitalisation for a CV event or all-cause death. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models estimated the HR for the association between subperiods versus periods outside exacerbations, and the risk of outcome. RESULTS: Among 126 795 patients, 58 720 (46.3%) exacerbated at least once and 48 982 (38.6%) experienced at least one CV event or died during a median follow-up of 36 months. The rate of outcome was increased during 1-7 days following a severe exacerbation onset (HR 15.84, 95% CI 15.26 to 16.45), and remained elevated for up to a year (181-365 days HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.23). In the 1-7 days following a moderate exacerbation onset, the increased rate was HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.31). CONCLUSION: The risk of a CV event or death increased in time periods following both moderate and severe exacerbations of COPD, emphasising the need to promptly manage the risk of CV events following the onset of an exacerbation, to prevent exacerbations of any severity, and more generally, to address the cardiopulmonary risk in patients with COPD.

The many faces of COPD in real life: a longitudinal analysis of the NOVELTY cohort.

Background: The diagnosis of COPD requires the demonstration of non-fully reversible airflow limitation by spirometry in the appropriate clinical context. Yet, there are patients with symptoms and relevant exposures suggestive of COPD with either normal spirometry (pre-COPD) or preserved ratio but impaired spirometry (PRISm). Their prevalence, clinical characteristics and associated outcomes in a real-life setting are unclear. Methods: To investigate them, we studied 3183 patients diagnosed with COPD by their attending physician included in the NOVELTY study (clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT02760329), a global, 3-year, observational, real-life cohort that included patients recruited from both primary and specialist care clinics in 18 countries. Results: We found that 1) approximately a quarter of patients diagnosed with (and treated for) COPD in real life did not fulfil the spirometric diagnostic criteria recommended by the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD), and could be instead categorised as pre-COPD (13%) or PRISm (14%); 2) disease burden (symptoms and exacerbations) was highest in GOLD 3-4 patients (exacerbations per person-year (PPY) 0.82) and lower but similar in those in GOLD 1-2, pre-COPD and PRISm (exacerbations range 0.27-0.43 PPY); 3) lung function decline was highest in pre-COPD and GOLD 1-2, and much less pronounced in PRISm and GOLD 3-4; 4) PRISm and pre-COPD were not stable diagnostic categories and change substantially over time; and 5) all-cause mortality was highest in GOLD 3-4, lowest in pre-COPD, and intermediate and similar in GOLD 1-2 and PRISm. Conclusions: Patients diagnosed COPD in a real-life clinical setting present great diversity in symptom burden, progression and survival, warranting medical attention.

Prevalence, Diagnostic Utility and Associated Characteristics of Bronchodilator Responsiveness.

Rationale: The prevalence and diagnostic utility of bronchodilator responsiveness (BDR) in a real-life setting is unclear. Objective: To explore this uncertainty in patients aged ⩾12 years with physician-assigned diagnoses of asthma, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or COPD in NOVELTY, a prospective cohort study in primary and secondary care in 18 countries. Methods: The proportion of patients with a positive BDR test in each diagnostic category was calculated using 2005 (ΔFEV1 or ΔFVC ⩾12% and ⩾200 ml) and 2021 (ΔFEV1 or ΔFVC >10% predicted) European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society criteria. Measurements and Main Results: We studied 3,519 patients with a physician-assigned diagnosis of asthma, 833 with a diagnosis of asthma + COPD, and 2,436 with a diagnosis of COPD. The prevalence of BDR was 19.7% (asthma), 29.6% (asthma + COPD), and 24.7% (COPD) using 2005 criteria and 18.1%, 23.3%, and 18.0%, respectively, using 2021 criteria. Using 2021 criteria in patients diagnosed with asthma, BDR was associated with higher fractional exhaled nitric oxide; lower lung function; higher symptom burden; more frequent hospital admissions; and greater use of triple therapy, oral corticosteroids, or biologics. In patients diagnosed with COPD, BDR (2021) was associated with lower lung function and higher symptom burden. Conclusions: BDR prevalence in patients with chronic airway diseases receiving treatment ranges from 18% to 30%, being modestly lower with the 2021 than with the 2005 European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society criteria, and it is associated with lower lung function and greater symptom burden. These observations question the validity of BDR as a key diagnostic tool for asthma managed in clinical practice or as a standard inclusion criterion for clinical trials of asthma and instead suggest that BDR be considered a treatable trait for chronic airway disease.

A Long-Term Study of Adverse Outcomes Associated With Oral Corticosteroid Use in COPD.

Background: Oral corticosteroids (OCS) are often prescribed for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Methods: This observational, individually matched historical cohort study used electronic medical records (1987-2019) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) to evaluate adverse outcomes in patients with COPD who used OCS (OCS cohort) and those not exposed to OCS (non-OCS cohort). Risk of 17 adverse outcomes was estimated using proportional hazard regression. Results: Of 323,722 patients, 106,775 (33.0%) had COPD-related OCS prescriptions. Of the 106,775 patients in the overall cohort, 58,955 had HES linkage and were eligible for inclusion in the OCS cohort. The individual matching process identified 53,299 pairs of patients to form the OCS and non-OCS cohorts. Median follow-up post-index was 6.9 years (OCS cohort) and 5.4 years (non-OCS cohort). Adjusted risk of multiple adverse outcomes was higher for the OCS cohort versus the non-OCS cohort, including osteoporosis with/without fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-1.92), type 2 diabetes mellitus (aHR 1.44; 95% CI 1.37-1.51), cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease (aHR 1.26; 95% CI 1.21-1.30), and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.04; 95% CI 1.02-1.07). In the OCS cohort, risk of most adverse outcomes increased with increasing categorized cumulative OCS dose. For example, risk of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease was 34% higher in the 1.0-<2.5 g group versus the <0.5 g group (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.26-1.42). Conclusion: Any OCS use was associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes in patients with COPD, with risk generally increasing with greater cumulative OCS dose.

Mortality risk reduction with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate versus fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol in COPD: a matching-adjusted indirect comparison based on ETHOS and IMPACT.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. While two approved fixed-dose inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) triple therapies reduce all-cause mortality (ACM) versus dual LAMA/LABA therapy in patients with COPD, head-to-head studies have not compared the effects of these therapies on ACM. We compared ACM in adults with moderate-to-very severe COPD receiving budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) in ETHOS versus fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) in IMPACT using a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC). METHODS: A systematic literature review identified two studies (ETHOS [NCT02465567]; IMPACT [NCT02164513]) of ≥52 weeks reporting ACM as an efficacy endpoint in patients receiving triple therapy. As ETHOS and IMPACT lack a common comparator, an unanchored MAIC compared ACM between licensed doses of BGF (320/18/9.6 µg) from ETHOS and FF/UMEC/VI (100/62.5/25 µg) from IMPACT in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. Using on- and off-treatment data from the final retrieved datasets of the intention-to-treat populations, BGF data were adjusted according to aggregate FF/UMEC/VI data using 11 baseline covariates; a supplementary unadjusted indirect treatment comparison was also conducted. P-values for these post-hoc analyses are not adjusted for Type I error. RESULTS: ACM over 52 weeks was statistically significantly reduced by 39% for BGF versus FF/UMEC/VI in the MAIC (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 0.61 [0.38, 0.95], p = 0.030) and unadjusted analysis (HR [95% CI]: 0.61 [0.41, 0.92], p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: In this MAIC, which adjusted for population heterogeneity between ETHOS and IMPACT, ACM was significantly reduced with BGF versus FF/UMEC/VI in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (known as COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide, being responsible for over 3 million deaths in 2019. People living with COPD are more likely to die. Importantly, a sudden worsening of COPD symptoms (known as an exacerbation) is associated with a higher chance of death from heart-related and breathing-related problems. Therefore, reducing risk of death is an important treatment goal for COPD. Of the three medications approved for treating COPD that combine three drugs in a single-inhaler device, there are two­referred to generically as budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) and fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI)­that can reduce the risk of death in people living with COPD compared with treatments that combine two drugs. However, no studies have directly compared the risk of death in people living with COPD treated with these medicines. We compared the risk of death in people living with moderate-to-very severe COPD who received either BGF during a clinical trial called ETHOS or FF/UMEC/VI during a clinical trial called IMPACT. To make this comparison, we used a method called "matching-adjusted indirect comparison", which used specific features (such as sex, breathing difficulty, and whether they were current smokers) to match patients from the two studies to ensure similar groups were examined. Our analysis showed a 39% decrease in the chance of death in patients who received BGF compared with patients who received FF/UMEC/VI. This finding may be important for doctors to improve patient health and reduce the risk of death in people living with COPD.

Patterns of care in the management of high-risk COPD in the US (2011-2019): an observational study for the CONQUEST quality improvement program.

Background: In this study, we compare management of patients with high-risk chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in the United States to national and international guidelines and quality standards, including the COllaboratioN on QUality improvement initiative for achieving Excellence in STandards of COPD care (CONQUEST). Methods: Patients were identified from the DARTNet Practice Performance Registry and categorized into three high-risk cohorts in each year from 2011 to 2019: newly diagnosed (≤12 months after diagnosis), already diagnosed, and patients with potential undiagnosed COPD. Patients were considered high-risk if they had a history of exacerbations or likely exacerbations (respiratory consult with prescribed medication). Descriptive statistics for 2019 are reported, along with annual trends. Findings: In 2019, 10% (n = 16,610/167,197) of patients met high-risk criteria. Evidence of spirometry for diagnosis was low; in 2019, 81% (n = 1228/1523) of patients newly diagnosed at high-risk had no record of spirometry/peak expiratory flow in the 12 months pre- or post-diagnosis and 43% (n = 651/1523) had no record of COPD symptom review. Among those newly and already diagnosed at high-risk, 52% (n = 4830/9350) had no evidence of COPD medication. Interpretation: Findings suggest inconsistent adherence to evidence-based guidelines, and opportunities to improve identification, documentation of services, assessment, therapeutic intervention, and follow-up of patients with COPD. Funding: This study was conducted by the Observational and Pragmatic Research Institute (OPRI) Pte Ltd and was partially funded by Optimum Patient Care Global and AstraZeneca Ltd. No funding was received by the Observational & Pragmatic Research Institute Pte Ltd (OPRI) for its contribution.

Cluster Analyses From the Real-World NOVELTY Study: Six Clusters Across the Asthma-COPD Spectrum.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are complex diseases, the definitions of which overlap. OBJECTIVE: To investigate clustering of clinical/physiological features and readily available biomarkers in patients with physician-assigned diagnoses of asthma and/or COPD in the NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY (NOVELTY; NCT02760329). METHODS: Two approaches were taken to variable selection using baseline data: approach A was data-driven, hypothesis-free and used the Pearson dissimilarity matrix; approach B used an unsupervised Random Forest guided by clinical input. Cluster analyses were conducted across 100 random resamples using partitioning around medoids, followed by consensus clustering. RESULTS: Approach A included 3796 individuals (mean age, 59.5 years; 54% female); approach B included 2934 patients (mean age, 60.7 years; 53% female). Each identified 6 mathematically stable clusters, which had overlapping characteristics. Overall, 67% to 75% of patients with asthma were in 3 clusters, and approximately 90% of patients with COPD were in 3 clusters. Although traditional features such as allergies and current/ex-smoking (respectively) were higher in these clusters, there were differences between clusters and approaches in features such as sex, ethnicity, breathlessness, frequent productive cough, and blood cell counts. The strongest predictors of the approach A cluster membership were age, weight, childhood onset, prebronchodilator FEV1, duration of dust/fume exposure, and number of daily medications. CONCLUSIONS: Cluster analyses in patients from NOVELTY with asthma and/or COPD yielded identifiable clusters, with several discriminatory features that differed from conventional diagnostic characteristics. The overlap between clusters suggests that they do not reflect discrete underlying mechanisms and points to the need for identification of molecular endotypes and potential treatment targets across asthma and/or COPD.

EXAcerbations of COPD and their OutcomeS on CardioVascular diseases (EXACOS-CV) Programme: protocol of multicountry observational cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: In patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), the risk of certain cardiovascular (CV) events is increased by threefold to fivefold in the year following acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD), compared with a non-exacerbation period. While the effect of severe AECOPD is well established, the relationship of moderate exacerbation or prior exacerbation to elevated risk of CV events is less clear. We will conduct cohort studies in multiple countries to further characterise the association between AECOPD and CV events. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Retrospective longitudinal cohort studies will be conducted within routinely collected electronic healthcare records or claims databases. The study cohorts will include patients meeting inclusion criteria for COPD between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2018. Moderate exacerbation is defined as an outpatient visit and/or medication dispensation/prescription for exacerbation; severe exacerbation is defined as hospitalisation for COPD. The primary outcomes of interest are the time to (1) first hospitalisation for a CV event (including acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, arrhythmias or cerebral ischaemia) since cohort entry or (2) death. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models will compare the hazard of a CV event between exposed periods following exacerbation (split into these periods: 1-7, 8-14, 15-30, 31-180 and 181-365 days) and the unexposed reference time period, adjusted on time-fixed and time-varying confounders. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Studies have been approved in Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK, where an institutional review board is mandated. For each study, the results will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

Chronic Airways Assessment Test: psychometric properties in patients with asthma and/or COPD.

BACKGROUND: No short patient-reported outcome (PRO) instruments assess overall health status across different obstructive lung diseases. Thus, the wording of the introduction to the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Assessment Test (CAT) was modified to permit use in asthma and/or COPD. This tool is called the Chronic Airways Assessment Test (CAAT). METHODS: The psychometric properties of the CAAT were evaluated using baseline data from the NOVELTY study (NCT02760329) in patients with physician-assigned asthma, asthma + COPD or COPD. Analyses included exploratory/confirmatory factor analyses, differential item functioning and analysis of construct validity. Responses to the CAAT and CAT were compared in patients with asthma + COPD and those with COPD. RESULTS: CAAT items were internally consistent (Cronbach's alpha: > 0.7) within each diagnostic group (n = 510). Models for structural and measurement invariance were strong. Tests of differential item functioning showed small differences between asthma and COPD in individual items, but these were not consistent in direction and had minimal overall impact on the total score. The CAAT and CAT were highly consistent when assessed in all NOVELTY patients who completed both (N = 277, Pearson's correlation coefficient: 0.90). Like the CAT itself, CAAT scores correlated moderately (0.4-0.7) to strongly (> 0.7) with other PRO measures and weakly (< 0.4) with spirometry measures. CONCLUSIONS: CAAT scores appear to reflect the same health impairment across asthma and COPD, making the CAAT an appropriate PRO instrument for patients with asthma and/or COPD. Its brevity makes it suitable for use in clinical studies and routine clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02760329.

Functional imaging in asthma and COPD: design of the NOVELTY ADPro substudy.

The NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY (NOVELTY; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT02760329) is a global, prospective, observational study of ∼12 000 patients with a diagnosis of asthma and/or COPD. Here, we describe the design of the Advanced Diagnostic Profiling (ADPro) substudy of NOVELTY being conducted in a subset of ∼180 patients recruited from two primary care sites in York, UK. ADPro is employing a combination of novel functional imaging and physiological and metabolic modalities to explore structural and functional changes in the lungs, and their association with different phenotypes and endotypes. Patients participating in the ADPro substudy will attend two visits at the University of Sheffield, UK, 12±2 months apart, at which they will undergo imaging and physiological lung function testing. The primary end-points are the distributions of whole lung functional and morphological measurements assessed with xenon-129 magnetic resonance imaging, including ventilation, gas transfer and airway microstructural indices. Physiological assessments of pulmonary function include spirometry, bronchodilator reversibility, static lung volumes via body plethysmography, transfer factor of the lung for carbon monoxide, multiple-breath nitrogen washout and airway oscillometry. Fractional exhaled nitric oxide will be measured as a marker of type-2 airways inflammation. Regional and global assessment of lung function using these techniques will enable more precise phenotyping of patients with physician-assigned asthma and/or COPD. These techniques will be assessed for their sensitivity to markers of early disease progression.

History of Respiratory Events Prior to a First COPD Diagnosis and Future Exacerbations: A Longitudinal Observational Cohort Database Study in Japan.

Background: Little is known about the association between respiratory events prior to diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and future clinical outcomes in Japan. We investigated the association between pre-COPD diagnosis respiratory events and the incidence of exacerbations in a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients in Japan. Patients and Methods: Data were retrieved from the JMDC claims database. Patients ≥40 years old with a first COPD diagnosis (≥1 hospitalization or ≥2 outpatient claims for COPD) between 2010 and 2016 were included. The incidence rate (IR) of exacerbations in patients with or without any respiratory event (including lower respiratory tract infection and respiratory failure) in the year preceding diagnosis was compared. A negative binomial model explored the association between pre-diagnosis respiratory event and IR ratio (IRR) of exacerbations. Results: A total of 20,212 patients newly diagnosed with COPD were identified: 61% male, mean age 55 years (SD 9); of these, 955 (4.7%) had experienced ≥1 respiratory event in the year preceding diagnosis. Median duration of follow-up was 3.3 years during which the IR of exacerbations was 0.31 per patient-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.29-0.33) in patients with respiratory event, and 0.11 (95% CI 0.10-0.13) in patients without. The IR for severe exacerbation was nearly 10 times greater in patients with respiratory event versus without. Experiencing respiratory event pre-diagnosis was independently associated with an increased IRR of future moderate-to-severe exacerbation (adjusted IRR, 2.7; 95% CI 2.3-3.1). Conclusion: Patients experiencing respiratory events in the year preceding COPD diagnosis should be considered at-risk of worse clinical COPD outcomes.

Background rate estimations for thrombosis with thrombocytopaenia: challenges in evaluating rare safety signals following vaccination in real time during a pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: During COVID-19 vaccination programmes, new safety signals have emerged for vaccines, including extremely rare cases of thrombosis with thrombocytopaenia syndrome (TTS). Background event rates before and during the pandemic are essential for contextualisation of such infrequent events. In the literature, most studies do not report an overall TTS event rate. Rather, background rates are mainly reported for subtypes of thrombotic/thromboembolic diagnoses included in the TTS clinical definition mostly by anatomical location, with reported rates for TTS subtypes varying widely. The objective of this study was to report prepandemic TTS background event rates in the general population. METHODS: Prepandemic background TTS rates were generated via secondary data analysis using a cohort design in the IBM Truven MarketScan (now Merative MarketScan) US health insurance claims database, from 1 January 2019 to 31 December 2019. Two algorithms were applied: thrombocytopaenia occurring±7 days (algorithm 1) or occurring 1 day prior to ≤14 days after the thrombotic/thromboembolic event (algorithm 2). RESULTS: The study population derived from the MarketScan database analysis included approximately 9.8 million adults (aged ≥18 years; mean age 45 years, 52% females). Using this study population, prepandemic background TTS incidence was estimated as 9.8-11.1 per 100 000 person-years. Event rates were higher in males and increased with age. Similar patterns were observed with both algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents an estimate of aggregate prepandemic background TTS event rates including by type of thrombosis/thromboembolism and age group. The background event rates are dependent on the precision of capturing underlying TTS events in variable data sources, and the ability of electronic health records or insurance claims databases to reflect the TTS clinical definition. Differences between reported event rates demonstrate that estimating background event rates for rare, unprecedented safety events is methodologically challenging.

Short- and Long-Term Impact of Prior Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations on Healthcare Resource Utilization and Related Costs: An Observational Study (SHERLOCK).

The observational retrospective cohort Study on HEalthcare Resource utiLization (HCRU) related to exacerbatiOns in patients with COPD (SHERLOCK; D5980R00014) evaluated exacerbation-related HCRU and costs using the U.K. National Health Service Greater Glasgow and Clyde Health Board data. Patients (≥40 years) with COPD were stratified by exacerbations one year before the index date: Group A (none), B (1 moderate), C (1 severe) and D (≥2 moderate and/or severe). All-cause and COPD-related HCRU and costs were assessed over 36 months. Adjusted rate ratios (RRs) or relative costs versus Group A were estimated using generalized linear models with appropriate distributions and link functions. The study included 22 462 patients (Group A, n = 7788; B, n = 5151; C, n = 250 and D, n = 9273). At 12 months, RRs (95% CI) versus Group A for all-cause and COPD-related HCRU, respectively, were highest in Groups C (1.28 [1.18, 1.39] and 1.18 [1.09, 1.29]) and D (1.26 [1.23, 1.28] and 1.29 [1.26, 1.31]). General practitioner and outpatient visits, and general ward stays/days accounted for the greatest COPD-related HCRU. All-cause and COPD-related relative costs (95% CI) versus Group A at 12 months, respectively, were 1.03 (0.94, 1.12) and 1.06 (0.99, 1.13) in Group B; 1.47 (1.07, 2.01) and 1.54 (1.20, 1.97) in Group C; 1.47 (1.36, 1.58) and 1.63 (1.54, 1.73) in Group D. Increased HCRU and costs in patients with exacerbation histories persisted at 36 months, demonstrating the sustained impact of exacerbations. The study suggests the importance of management and prevention of exacerbations through intervention optimization and budgeting by payers for exacerbation-related costs.

Frequency and severity of respiratory infections prior to COPD diagnosis and risk of subsequent postdiagnosis COPD exacerbations and mortality: EXACOS-UK health care data study.

OBJECTIVE: Little is known about how lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) before chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with future exacerbations and mortality. We investigated this association in patients with COPD in England. METHODS: Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics data were used. Start of follow-up was patient's first ever COPD diagnosis date and a 1-year baseline period prior to start of follow-up was used to find mild LRTIs (general practice (GP) events/no antibiotics), moderate LRTIs (GP events+antibiotics) and severe LRTIs (hospitalised). Patients were categorised as having: none, 1 mild only, 2+ mild only, 1 moderate, 2+ moderate and 1+ severe. Negative binomial regression modelled the association between baseline LRTIs and subsequent COPD exacerbations and Cox proportional hazard regression was used to investigate mortality. RESULTS: In 215 234 patients with COPD, increasing frequency and severity of mild and moderate LRTIs were associated with increased rates of subsequent exacerbations compared with no recorded LRTIs (1 mild adjusted IRR 1.16, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.18, 2+ mild IRR 1.51, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.55, 1 moderate IRR 1.81, 95% CI 1.78 to 1.85, 2+ moderate IRR 2.55, 95% CI 2.48 to 2.63). Patients with 1+ severe LRTI (vs no baseline LRTIs) also showed an increased rate of future exacerbations (adjusted IRR 1.75, 95% CI, 1.70 to 1.80). This pattern of association was similar for risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality; however, patients with 1+ severe LRTIs had the highest risk of all-cause and COPD mortality. CONCLUSION: Increasing frequency and severity of LRTIs prior to COPD diagnosis were associated with increasing rates of subsequent exacerbations, and increasing risk of all-cause and COPD-related mortality.

The burden of mild asthma: Clinical burden and healthcare resource utilisation in the NOVELTY study.

BACKGROUND: Patients with mild asthma represent a substantial proportion of the population with asthma, yet there are limited data on their true burden of disease. We aimed to describe the clinical and healthcare resource utilisation (HCRU) burden of physician-assessed mild asthma. METHODS: Patients with mild asthma were included from the NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY (NOVELTY; NCT02760329), a global, 3-year, real-world prospective study of patients with asthma and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from community practice (specialised and primary care). Diagnosis and severity were based on physician discretion. Clinical burden included physician-reported exacerbations and patient-reported measures. HCRU included inpatient and outpatient visits. RESULTS: Overall, 2004 patients with mild asthma were included; 22.8% experienced ≥1 exacerbation in the previous 12 months, of whom 72.3% experienced ≥1 severe exacerbation. Of 625 exacerbations reported, 48.0% lasted >1 week, 27.7% were preceded by symptomatic worsening lasting >3 days, and 50.1% required oral corticosteroid treatment. Health status was moderately impacted (St George's Respiratory Questionnaire score: 23.5 [standard deviation ± 17.9]). At baseline, 29.7% of patients had asthma symptoms that were not well controlled or very poorly controlled (Asthma Control Test score <20), increasing to 55.6% for those with ≥2 exacerbations in the previous year. In terms of HCRU, at least one unscheduled ambulatory visit for exacerbations was required by 9.5% of patients, including 9.2% requiring ≥1 emergency department visit and 1.1% requiring ≥1 hospital admission. CONCLUSIONS: In this global sample representing community practice, a significant proportion of patients with physician-assessed mild asthma had considerable clinical burden and HCRU.

Treatable traits in the NOVELTY study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are two prevalent and complex diseases that require personalized management. Although a strategy based on treatable traits (TTs) has been proposed, the prevalence and relationship of TTs to the diagnostic label and disease severity established by the attending physician in a real-world setting are unknown. We assessed how the presence/absence of specific TTs relate to the diagnosis and severity of 'asthma', 'COPD' or 'asthma + COPD'. METHODS: The authors selected 30 frequently occurring TTs from the NOVELTY study cohort (NOVEL observational longiTudinal studY; NCT02760329), a large (n = 11,226), global study that systematically collects data in a real-world setting, both in primary care clinics and specialized centres, for patients with 'asthma' (n = 5932, 52.8%), 'COPD' (n = 3898, 34.7%) or both ('asthma + COPD'; n = 1396, 12.4%). RESULTS: The results indicate that (1) the prevalence of the 30 TTs evaluated varied widely, with a mean ± SD of 4.6 ± 2.6, 5.4 ± 2.6 and 6.4 ± 2.8 TTs/patient in those with 'asthma', 'COPD' and 'asthma + COPD', respectively (p < 0.0001); (2) there were no large global geographical variations, but the prevalence of TTs was different in primary versus specialized clinics; (3) several TTs were specific to the diagnosis and severity of disease, but many were not; and (4) both the presence and absence of TTs formed a pattern that is recognized by clinicians to establish a diagnosis and grade its severity. CONCLUSION: These results provide the largest and most granular characterization of TTs in patients with airway diseases in a real-world setting to date.

Frequent productive cough: Symptom burden and future exacerbation risk among patients with asthma and/or COPD in the NOVELTY study.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent cough with sputum production is an important clinical trait in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We defined "frequent productive cough" based on 2 questions from the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and sought to determine its occurrence and associated outcomes in patients with physician-assigned asthma and/or COPD from the NOVELTY study. METHODS: Frequent productive cough was defined as cough and sputum production most or several days/week for the past 3 months (scoring ≥3 for both SGRQ questions). Relationships with baseline disease characteristics and exacerbations over 12 months' follow-up were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Baseline SGRQ data were available for 7125 patients, of whom 31.3% had frequent productive cough. It was more common in asthma+COPD (38.8%) and COPD (38.1%) than asthma (25.0%), increasing with physician-assessed severity, and in current versus former and never smokers. Patient-reported symptomatic worsening was more common in patients with versus without frequent productive cough. Reduced post-bronchodilator FEV1 (odds ratio [OR] per 10% decrement 1.14 [95% confidence interval 1.11-1.16]) and history of pollutant exposure at home/work (OR 1.50 [1.33-1.69]) were associated with frequent productive cough in all diagnoses. Patients with baseline frequent productive cough were more likely to have ≥1 exacerbation over the subsequent 12 months (OR 1.71 [1.52-1.93]), including exacerbations requiring hospital admission and those treated with oral corticosteroids. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent productive cough represents an important indicator of adverse clinical outcomes across asthma and/or COPD. Research into the underlying pathologic mechanisms is required to support targeted therapy development. CLINICALTRIALS: GOV: NCT02760329.

Association of COPD exacerbations and acute cardiovascular events: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer from comorbid cardiovascular (CV) disease. Accumulating evidence suggests a temporal association between COPD exacerbations and acute CV events, possibly due to lung hyperinflation, increased hypoxemia and systemic inflammation. The aims of the study were to estimate the risk of (1) acute CV events [acute myocardial infarction (AMI), CV-related death] or stroke in the months following a COPD exacerbation and (2) COPD exacerbation in the months following an acute CV event. METHODS: A systematic literature review of observational studies published since 2000 was conducted by searching literature databases (Medline and Embase). Studies were eligible if conducted in adults with COPD, exposed to either COPD exacerbation or acute CV events, with outcomes of acute CV events or COPD exacerbation reported. Studies were appraised for relevance, bias and quality. Meta-analyses, using random-effect models, were performed for each outcome of interest, thus providing a pooled relative risk (RR) and its 95% confidence interval. RESULTS: Eight studies were identified, of which seven were used for the meta-analyses examining the risk of CV events 1-3 months after an exacerbation compared with none. For stroke (six studies), RR was 1.68 (95% CI = 1.19-2.38). For AMI (six studies), RR was 2.43 (95% CI = 1.40-4.20). No studies exploring risk of exacerbation following an acute CV event were identified. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis identified a markedly increased risk of stroke or AMI within a relatively short period of time following a COPD exacerbation. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully elucidated, patients with COPD should be monitored for risk of CV outcomes after exacerbations. In addition, preventing exacerbations may decrease the risk of subsequent acute CV events. REGISTRATION: The study protocol was published via PROSPERO: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (#CRD42020211055).

Frequency and Severity of Exacerbations of COPD Associated with Future Risk of Exacerbations and Mortality: A UK Routine Health Care Data Study.

Background: Studies have shown that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation events are related to future events; however, previous literature typically reports frequent vs infrequent exacerbations per patient-year and no studies have investigated increasing number of severe exacerbations in relation to COPD outcomes. Objective: To investigate the association between baseline frequency and severity of exacerbations and subsequent mortality and exacerbation risk in a COPD cohort. Methods: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum and Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify patients registered at general practices in the UK, who had a diagnosis of COPD, were over the age of 40 years, were smokers or ex-smokers and had data recorded from 2004 onwards. Frequency and severity of exacerbations in the baseline year were identified as moderate exacerbations (general practice events) and severe exacerbations (hospitalised events). Patients were categorised as having: none, 1 moderate only, 2 moderate only, 3+ moderate only, 1 severe (and any moderate), 2 severe (and any moderate), and 3+ severe (and any moderate exacerbations). Poisson regression was used to investigate the association between baseline exacerbation frequency/severity and exacerbation events and mortality over follow-up. Results: Overall, 340,515 COPD patients were included. Patients had higher rates of future exacerbations with increasing frequency and severity of baseline exacerbations compared to no baseline exacerbations. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) for patients with 1, 2, and 3+ moderate exacerbations compared to 0 exacerbations were 1.70 (95% CI 1.66-1.74), 2.31 (95% CI 2.24-2.37), and 3.52 (95% CI 3.43-3.62), respectively. Patients with increased frequency of baseline exacerbations were more likely to die from all-cause, COPD-related, and cardiovascular-related mortality in a graduated fashion. Conclusion: Increasing number and severity of exacerbations were associated with increasing risk of subsequent exacerbations, all-cause mortality and COPD-related mortality. Even a single moderate event increases the risk of future events, illustrating that every exacerbation counts.

The long-term clinical impact of COPD exacerbations: a 3-year observational study (SHERLOCK).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) drive disease progression and can lead to an accelerated decline in lung function and a burden on healthcare systems. The retrospective, observational cohort Study on HEalthcare Resource utiLization related to exacerbatiOns in patients with COPD (SHERLOCK; D5980R00014) evaluated the associations between exacerbation history and rates of subsequent COPD exacerbations in primary care patients from the National Health Service in Greater Glasgow and Clyde, United Kingdom. METHODS: Patients were stratified into four groups according to exacerbation history in the year before the index date: Group A (no exacerbations), Group B (1 moderate exacerbation only), Group C (1 severe exacerbation only), and Group D (⩾2 moderate or severe exacerbations). The frequencies of moderate and/or severe exacerbations were recorded over 36 months of follow-up and compared with reference Group A, using generalized linear models. RESULTS: Over 36 months of follow-up, the adjusted rate ratios (RRs, 95% confidence interval) of moderate or severe exacerbations relative to Group A were 1.60 (1.53, 1.67), 1.75 (1.50, 2.04), 1.61 (1.54, 1.68), and 3.61 (3.48, 3.74) for Groups B, C, B + C, and D, respectively. Compared with Group A, patients in Group C exhibited an increased rate of moderate (RR, 1.58 (1.35, 1.85)) and severe exacerbations (RR, 3.13 (2.20, 4.46)). CONCLUSION: SHERLOCK highlights that even one moderate exacerbation increases the risk for subsequent exacerbations compared with having no recent prior exacerbations. Reviewing recent exacerbation history to ascertain future exacerbation risk and inform COPD management may reduce hospitalizations and improve patient outcomes.