The Economic Burden of PTSD in Northern Ireland.

The objective of this study was to estimate the economic costs of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among the Northern Ireland (NI) adult population. The authors present a prevalence-based, bottom-up study based primarily on data from 1,986 participants in the Northern Ireland Study of Health and Stress (NISHS). Both direct costs of treatment and indirect costs of productivity losses were included. Units of service and medication resource use were obtained from the NISHS and combined with their relevant unit costs from the Personal Social Services Research Unit and Prescription Costs Analysis data for NI. Indirect costs included the costs of incapacity days due to PTSD and presenteeism costs, with gender-specific wage rates used as the relevant unit costs. The total direct and indirect cost of PTSD in NI (2008) was £172,756,062. This figure is likely to be conservative due to the exclusion of a number of cost categories. Nevertheless, comparison of estimates of the burden of PTSD with the estimated cost of treating all adults with PTSD with the recommended treatments shows the potential for substantial economic gains to be made through extension and investment in effective evidence-based treatments.

How well can post-traumatic stress disorder be predicted from pre-trauma risk factors? An exploratory study in the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) should be one of the most preventable mental disorders, since many people exposed to traumatic experiences (TEs) could be targeted in first response settings in the immediate aftermath of exposure for preventive intervention. However, these interventions are costly and the proportion of TE-exposed people who develop PTSD is small. To be cost-effective, risk prediction rules are needed to target high-risk people in the immediate aftermath of a TE. Although a number of studies have been carried out to examine prospective predictors of PTSD among people recently exposed to TEs, most were either small or focused on a narrow sample, making it unclear how well PTSD can be predicted in the total population of people exposed to TEs. The current report investigates this issue in a large sample based on the World Health Organization (WHO)'s World Mental Health Surveys. Retrospective reports were obtained on the predictors of PTSD associated with 47,466 TE exposures in representative community surveys carried out in 24 countries. Machine learning methods (random forests, penalized regression, super learner) were used to develop a model predicting PTSD from information about TE type, socio-demographics, and prior histories of cumulative TE exposure and DSM-IV disorders. DSM-IV PTSD prevalence was 4.0% across the 47,466 TE exposures. 95.6% of these PTSD cases were associated with the 10.0% of exposures (i.e., 4,747) classified by machine learning algorithm as having highest predicted PTSD risk. The 47,466 exposures were divided into 20 ventiles (20 groups of equal size) ranked by predicted PTSD risk. PTSD occurred after 56.3% of the TEs in the highest-risk ventile, 20.0% of the TEs in the second highest ventile, and 0.0-1.3% of the TEs in the 18 remaining ventiles. These patterns of differential risk were quite stable across demographic-geographic sub-samples. These results demonstrate that a sensitive risk algorithm can be created using data collected in the immediate aftermath of TE exposure to target people at highest risk of PTSD. However, validation of the algorithm is needed in prospective samples, and additional work is warranted to refine the algorithm both in terms of determining a minimum required predictor set and developing a practical administration and scoring protocol that can be used in routine clinical practice.

Trauma associated with civil conflict and posttraumatic stress disorder: evidence from the Northern Ireland study of health and stress.

The authors provide epidemiological estimates of trauma, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and associated mental disorders in Northern Ireland (NI) with a focus on the impact of civil conflict using data from the NI Study of Health and Stress (NISHS), a representative epidemiological survey of adults in NI. Overall 60.6% had a lifetime traumatic event, and 39.0% experienced a presumed conflict-related event. Men were significantly more likely to experience any traumatic event and most conflict-related event types (p < .05). The lifetime and 12-month prevalence of PTSD were 8.8% and 5.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the lifetime prevalence of any mental disorder among men and women who experienced a conflict-related trauma (46.0% and 55.9%, respectively) was significantly higher than the prevalence among men and women who did not experience this type of traumatic event (27.2% and 31.1%, respectively). Given the public health burden posed by PTSD and additional impact of conflict, specific attention must be paid to the policy, service, and clinical challenge of delivering evidence-based treatments in the wake of a tumultuous period of conflict.

Parent psychopathology and offspring mental disorders: results from the WHO World Mental Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Associations between specific parent and offspring mental disorders are likely to have been overestimated in studies that have failed to control for parent comorbidity. AIMS: To examine the associations of parent with respondent disorders. METHOD: Data come from the World Health Organization (WHO) World Mental Health Surveys (n = 51 507). Respondent disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview and parent disorders with informant-based Family History Research Diagnostic Criteria interviews. RESULTS: Although virtually all parent disorders examined (major depressive, generalised anxiety, panic, substance and antisocial behaviour disorders and suicidality) were significantly associated with offspring disorders in multivariate analyses, little specificity was found. Comorbid parent disorders had significant sub-additive associations with offspring disorders. Population-attributable risk proportions for parent disorders were 12.4% across all offspring disorders, generally higher in high- and upper-middle- than low-/lower-middle-income countries, and consistently higher for behaviour (11.0-19.9%) than other (7.1-14.0%) disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Parent psychopathology is a robust non-specific predictor associated with a substantial proportion of offspring disorders.