Rare ground data confirm significant warming and drying in western equatorial Africa.

BACKGROUND: The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2,000 mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of persistent cloudiness and inability to ground-truth estimates. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests under future climate scenarios. METHODS: We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34 year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Gabon, western equatorial Africa. We used (generalized) linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns. RESULTS: Lopé's weather is characterised by a cool, light-deficient, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last 34 years, with warming occurring at a rate of +0.25 °C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of -75 mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual climatic variability at Lopé is highly influenced by global weather patterns. Sea surface temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have strong coherence with Lopé temperature and rainfall on multi-annual scales. CONCLUSIONS: The Lopé long-term weather record has not previously been made public and is of high value in such a data poor region. Our results support regional analyses of climatic seasonality, long-term warming and the influences of the oceans on temperature and rainfall variability. However, warming has occurred more rapidly than the regional products suggest and while there remains much uncertainty in the wider region, rainfall has declined over the last three decades at Lopé. The association between rainfall and the Atlantic cold tongue at Lopé lends some support for the 'dry' models of climate change for the region. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of dry season clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid evergreen forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

Climate Process Team on Internal Wave-Driven Ocean Mixing.

Diapycnal mixing plays a primary role in the thermodynamic balance of the ocean and, consequently, in oceanic heat and carbon uptake and storage. Though observed mixing rates are on average consistent with values required by inverse models, recent attention has focused on the dramatic spatial variability, spanning several orders of magnitude, of mixing rates in both the upper and deep ocean. Away from ocean boundaries, the spatio-temporal patterns of mixing are largely driven by the geography of generation, propagation and dissipation of internal waves, which supply much of the power for turbulent mixing. Over the last five years and under the auspices of US CLIVAR, a NSF- and NOAA-supported Climate Process Team has been engaged in developing, implementing and testing dynamics-based parameterizations for internal-wave driven turbulent mixing in global ocean models. The work has primarily focused on turbulence 1) near sites of internal tide generation, 2) in the upper ocean related to wind-generated near inertial motions, 3) due to internal lee waves generated by low-frequency mesoscale flows over topography, and 4) at ocean margins. Here we review recent progress, describe the tools developed, and discuss future directions.

The formation and fate of internal waves in the South China Sea.

Internal gravity waves, the subsurface analogue of the familiar surface gravity waves that break on beaches, are ubiquitous in the ocean. Because of their strong vertical and horizontal currents, and the turbulent mixing caused by their breaking, they affect a panoply of ocean processes, such as the supply of nutrients for photosynthesis, sediment and pollutant transport and acoustic transmission; they also pose hazards for man-made structures in the ocean. Generated primarily by the wind and the tides, internal waves can travel thousands of kilometres from their sources before breaking, making it challenging to observe them and to include them in numerical climate models, which are sensitive to their effects. For over a decade, studies have targeted the South China Sea, where the oceans' most powerful known internal waves are generated in the Luzon Strait and steepen dramatically as they propagate west. Confusion has persisted regarding their mechanism of generation, variability and energy budget, however, owing to the lack of in situ data from the Luzon Strait, where extreme flow conditions make measurements difficult. Here we use new observations and numerical models to (1) show that the waves begin as sinusoidal disturbances rather than arising from sharp hydraulic phenomena, (2) reveal the existence of >200-metre-high breaking internal waves in the region of generation that give rise to turbulence levels >10,000 times that in the open ocean, (3) determine that the Kuroshio western boundary current noticeably refracts the internal wave field emanating from the Luzon Strait, and (4) demonstrate a factor-of-two agreement between modelled and observed energy fluxes, which allows us to produce an observationally supported energy budget of the region. Together, these findings give a cradle-to-grave picture of internal waves on a basin scale, which will support further improvements of their representation in numerical climate predictions.