Brief of Amici Curiae economists in support of respondents in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.

A pillar of Mississippi's argument in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health was that there is no evidence of "societal reliance" on abortion, meaning no reason to believe that access to abortion impacts the ability of women to participate in the economic and social life of the nation. Led by economist Caitlin Myers and attorney Anjali Srinivasan, more than 150 economists filed an amicus brief seeking to assist the Court in understanding that this assertion is erroneous. The economists describe developments in causal inference methodologies over the last three decades, and the ways in which these tools have been used to isolate the measure of the effects of abortion legalization in the 1970s and of abortion policies and access over the ensuing decades. The economists argue that there is a substantial body of well-developed and credible research that shows that abortion access has had and continues to have a significant effect on birth rates as well as broad downstream social and economic effects, including on women's educational attainment and job opportunities. What follows is a reprint of this brief.

Projected Health Outcomes Associated With 3 US Supreme Court Decisions in 2022 on COVID-19 Workplace Protections, Handgun-Carry Restrictions, and Abortion Rights.

Importance: Several recent US Supreme Court rulings have drawn criticism from the medical community, but their health consequences have not been quantitatively evaluated. Objective: To model health outcomes associated with 3 Supreme Court rulings in 2022 that invalidated workplace COVID-19 vaccine or mask-and-test requirements, voided state handgun-carry restrictions, and revoked the constitutional right to abortion. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical modeling study estimated outcomes associated with 3 Supreme Court rulings in 2022: (1) National Federation of Independent Business v Department of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA), which invalidated COVID-19 workplace protections; (2) New York State Rifle and Pistol Association Inc v Bruen, Superintendent of New York State Police (Bruen), which voided state laws restricting handgun carry; and (3) Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organization (Dobbs), which revoked the constitutional right to abortion. Data analysis was performed from July 1, 2022, to April 7, 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: For the OSHA ruling, multiple data sources were used to calculate deaths attributable to COVID-19 among unvaccinated workers from January 4 to May 28, 2022, and the share of these deaths that would have been prevented by the voided protections. To model the Bruen decision, published estimates of the consequences of right-to-carry laws were applied to 2020 firearm-related deaths (and injuries) in 7 affected jurisdictions. For the Dobbs ruling, the model assessed unwanted pregnancy continuations, resulting from the change in distance to the closest abortion facility, and then excess deaths (and peripartum complications) from forcing these unwanted pregnancies to term. Results: The decision model projected that the OSHA decision was associated with 1402 additional COVID-19 deaths (and 22 830 hospitalizations) in early 2022. In addition, the model projected that 152 additional firearm-related deaths (and 377 nonfatal injuries) annually will result from the Bruen decision. Finally, the model projected that 30 440 fewer abortions will occur annually due to current abortion bans stemming from Dobbs, with 76 612 fewer abortions if states at high risk for such bans also were to ban the procedure; these bans will be associated with an estimated 6 to 15 additional pregnancy-related deaths each year, respectively, and hundreds of additional cases of peripartum morbidity. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that outcomes from 3 Supreme Court decisions in 2022 could lead to substantial harms to public health, including nearly 3000 excess deaths (and possibly many more) over a decade.

Bridging the Gap: Patient Navigation Increases Colonoscopy Follow-up After Abnormal FIT.

INTRODUCTION: Recent studies indicate low rates of follow-up colonoscopy after abnormal fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) within safety net health systems. A patient navigation (PN) program is an evidence-based strategy that has been shown to improve colonoscopy completion in private and public healthcare settings. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a PN program to encourage follow-up colonoscopy after abnormal FIT within a large safety net hospital system. METHODS: We established an enterprisewide PN program at 5 tertiary care hospitals within the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services system in 2018. The PN assisted adult patients aged 50-75 years with an abnormal FIT to a follow-up colonoscopy within 6 months. PN activities included initiating referral for and scheduling of colonoscopy, performing reminder phone calls to patient for their upcoming colonoscopy, and following up with patients who did not attend their colonoscopy. We assess the effectiveness of the PN intervention by comparing follow-up colonoscopy rates with a period before the intervention. RESULTS: There were 2,531 patients with abnormal FIT results (n = 1,214 in 2017 and n = 1,317 in 2018). A majority were women (55% in 2017 vs 52% in 2018) with a mean age of 60 ± 6.2 years. From a previous mean of 163 days without PN in 2017, the mean time from abnormal FIT to colonoscopy with PN improved to 113 days in 2018. The frequency of colonoscopy completion with PN increased from 40.6% (n = 493) in 2017 to 46% (n = 600) in 2018. DISCUSSION: After the introduction of the PN program, there was a significant increase in patients undergoing follow-up colonoscopy after abnormal FIT and patients were more likely to undergo colonoscopy within the recommended 6 months.

Did parental involvement laws grow teeth? The effects of state restrictions on minors' access to abortion.

We compile data on the locations of abortion providers and enforcement of parental involvement laws to document dramatic increases in the distances minors must travel if they wish to obtain an abortion without involving a parent or judge: from 58 miles in 1992 to 454 in 2016. Using both double and triple-difference estimation strategies, we estimate the effects of parental involvement laws, allowing them to vary with the distances minors might travel to avoid them. Our results confirm previous findings that parental involvement laws did not increase teen births in the 1980s, and provide new evidence that in more recent decades they have increased teen birth by an average of 3 percent. The estimated effects are increasing in avoidance distance to the point that a confidential abortion is more than a day's drive away, and also are substantially larger in the poorest quartile of counties.

Predicted changes in abortion access and incidence in a post-Roe world.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in travel distance and abortion incidence if Roe v. Wade were reversed or if abortion were further restricted. STUDY DESIGN: We used a national database of abortion facilities to calculate travel distances from the population centroids of United States counties to the nearest publicly-identifiable abortion facility. We then estimated these travel distances under two hypothetical post-Roe scenarios. In the first, abortion becomes illegal in eight states with preemptive "trigger bans." In the second, abortion becomes illegal in an additional 13 states classified as at high risk of outlawing abortions under most circumstances. Using previously-published estimates of the short-run causal effects of increases in travel distances on abortion rates in Texas, we estimate changes in abortion incidence under each scenario. RESULTS: If Roe were reversed and all high-risk states banned abortion, 39% of the national population of women aged 15-44 would experience increases in travel distances ranging from less than 1 mile to 791 miles. If these women respond similarly to travel distances as Texas women, county-level abortion rates would fall by amounts ranging from less than 1% to more than 40%. Aggregating across all affected regions, the average resident is expected to experience a 249 mile increase in travel distance, and the abortion rate is predicted to fall by 32.8% (95% confidence interval 25.9-39.6%) in the year following a Roe reversal. CONCLUSION: In the year following a reversal, increases in travel distances are predicted to prevent 93,546-143,561 women from accessing abortion care. IMPLICATIONS: A reversal or weakening of Roe is likely to increase spatial disparities in abortion access. This could translate to a reduction in abortion rates and an increase in unwanted births and self-managed abortions.

Can a social media campaign increase the use of long-acting reversible contraception? Evidence from a cluster randomized control trial using Facebook.

OBJECTIVE: To test whether an informational campaign carried out on social media increased use of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). STUDY DESIGN: We implemented a stratified cluster randomized control trial to identify the effect of an informational campaign carried out using Facebook advertisements designed to increase knowledge of the efficacy, ease of use and safety of LARC. We randomized all zip codes in a three-state study area to either a control group or a treatment group. Female Facebook users age 18-34 living in treated clusters received advertisements developed by the researchers in partnership with Planned Parenthood of Northern New England (PPNNE), which sponsored the campaign. We assessed changes in the number and rate of LARC insertions at PPNNE health centers by patients' treatment status. RESULTS: Facebook showed 1.8 million advertisements to women residing in 536 randomly assigned treatment clusters. Women living in 545 control clusters did not receive advertisements. We observed 152,743 patient visits across PPNNE's 21 health centers over a 26-month period spanning the advertisement campaign. After treatment, the number of LARC insertions increased by 5.7% (95% CI 0.4%-11.3%, p=.04) among patients living in treated relative to control clusters. This result, however, is driven by patients at a single large health center that was experiencing an increase in patient volume prior to the intervention. If we drop this clinic from the sample, we find no evidence that the campaign had an effect on LARC insertions (0.8% reduction, 95% CI -7.6 to 6.5, p=.83). Moreover, if we control for patient volume, we also find no evidence that the campaign increased insertions per patient (0.5% relative increase in insertions, 95% CI -4.9% to 5.2%, p=.87). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the intervention did not have a detectable impact on LARC insertions in the 4 months after the ad campaign. IMPLICATIONS: This project demonstrates the importance of evaluating the impact of resources invested on advertising with the goal of promoting public health.

Comparative Effectiveness of a Technology-Facilitated Depression Care Management Model in Safety-Net Primary Care Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: 6-Month Outcomes of a Large Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Comorbid depression is a significant challenge for safety-net primary care systems. Team-based collaborative depression care is effective, but complex system factors in safety-net organizations impede adoption and result in persistent disparities in outcomes. Diabetes-Depression Care-management Adoption Trial (DCAT) evaluated whether depression care could be significantly improved by harnessing information and communication technologies to automate routine screening and monitoring of patient symptoms and treatment adherence and allow timely communication with providers. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare 6-month outcomes of a technology-facilitated care model with a usual care model and a supported care model that involved team-based collaborative depression care for safety-net primary care adult patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: DCAT is a translational study in collaboration with Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, the second largest safety-net care system in the United States. A comparative effectiveness study with quasi-experimental design was conducted in three groups of adult patients with type 2 diabetes to compare three delivery models: usual care, supported care, and technology-facilitated care. Six-month outcomes included depression and diabetes care measures and patient-reported outcomes. Comparative treatment effects were estimated by linear or logistic regression models that used generalized propensity scores to adjust for sampling bias inherent in the nonrandomized design. RESULTS: DCAT enrolled 1406 patients (484 in usual care, 480 in supported care, and 442 in technology-facilitated care), most of whom were Hispanic or Latino and female. Compared with usual care, both the supported care and technology-facilitated care groups were associated with significant reduction in depressive symptoms measured by scores on the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (least squares estimate, LSE: usual care=6.35, supported care=5.05, technology-facilitated care=5.16; P value: supported care vs usual care=.02, technology-facilitated care vs usual care=.02); decreased prevalence of major depression (odds ratio, OR: supported care vs usual care=0.45, technology-facilitated care vs usual care=0.33; P value: supported care vs usual care=.02, technology-facilitated care vs usual care=.007); and reduced functional disability as measured by Sheehan Disability Scale scores (LSE: usual care=3.21, supported care=2.61, technology-facilitated care=2.59; P value: supported care vs usual care=.04, technology-facilitated care vs usual care=.03). Technology-facilitated care was significantly associated with depression remission (technology-facilitated care vs usual care: OR=2.98, P=.04); increased satisfaction with care for emotional problems among depressed patients (LSE: usual care=3.20, technology-facilitated care=3.70; P=.05); reduced total cholesterol level (LSE: usual care=176.40, technology-facilitated care=160.46; P=.01); improved satisfaction with diabetes care (LSE: usual care=4.01, technology-facilitated care=4.20; P=.05); and increased odds of taking an glycated hemoglobin test (technology-facilitated care vs usual care: OR=3.40, P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: Both the technology-facilitated care and supported care delivery models showed potential to improve 6-month depression and functional disability outcomes. The technology-facilitated care model has a greater likelihood to improve depression remission, patient satisfaction, and diabetes care quality.

Two food-assisted maternal and child health nutrition programs helped mitigate the impact of economic hardship on child stunting in Haiti.

Rigorous evaluations of food-assisted maternal and child health and nutrition programs are stymied by the ethics of randomizing recipients to a control treatment. Using nonexperimental matching methods, we evaluated the effect of 2 such programs on child linear growth in Haiti. The 2 well-implemented programs offered the same services (food assistance, behavior change communication, and preventive health services) to pregnant and lactating women and young children. They differed in that one (the preventive program) used blanket targeting of all children 6-23 mo, whereas the other (the recuperative program) targeted underweight (weight-for-age Z score < -2) children 6-59 mo, as traditionally done. We estimated program effects on height-for-age Z scores (HAZ) and stunting (HAZ < -2) by comparing outcomes of children in program areas with matched children from comparable populations in the Haiti Demographic and Health Survey. Children 12-41 mo in the preventive and recuperative program areas had lower prevalence of stunting than those in the matched control group [16 percentage points (pp) lower in preventive and 11 pp in recuperative]. Children in the 2 program areas also were more likely than those in the matched control group to be breast-fed up to 24 mo (25 pp higher in preventive, 22 in recuperative) and children 12 mo and older were more likely to have received the recommended full schedule of vaccinations (32 pp higher in preventive, 31 in recuperative). Both programs improved targeted behaviors and protected child growth in a time of deteriorating economic circumstances.