How to spot the recurring lumbar disc? Risk factors for recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) in adult patients with lumbar disc prolapse: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Despite a fast-growing evidence-base examining the relationship of certain clinical and radiological factors such as smoking, BMI and herniation-type with rLDH, there remains much debate around which factors are clinically important. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify risk factors for recurrent lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) in adults after primary discectomy. A systematic literature search was carried out using Ovid-Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane library and Web of Science databases from inception to 23rd June-2022. Observational studies of adult patients with radiologically-confirmed rLDH after ≥3 months of the initial surgery were included, and their quality assessed using the Quality-In-Prognostic-Studies (QUIPS) appraisal tool. Meta-analyses of univariate and multivariate data and a sensitivity-analysis for rLDH post-microdiscectomy were performed. Twelve studies (n=4497, mean age:47.3; 34.5% female) were included, and 11 studies (n=4235) meta-analysed. The mean follow-up was 38.4 months. Mean recurrence rate was 13.1% and mean time-to-recurrence was 24.1 months (range: 6-90 months). Clinically, older age (OR:1.04, 95%CI:1.00-1.08, n=1014), diabetes mellitus (OR:3.82, 95%CI:1.58-9.26, n=2330) and smoking (OR:1.80, 95%CI:1.03- 3.14, n=3425) increased likelihood of recurrence. Radiologically, Modic-change type-2 (OR:7.93, 95%CI:5.70-11.05, n=1706) and disc extrusion (OR:12.23, 95%CI:8.60-17.38, n=1706) increased likelihood of recurrence. The evidence did not support an association between rLDH and sex; BMI; occupational labour/driving; alcohol-consumption; Pfirmann- grade, or herniation-level. Older patients, smokers, patients with diabetes, those with type-2 Modic-changes or disc extrusion are more likely to experience rLDH. Higher quality studies with robust adjustment of confounders are required to determine the clinical bearing of all other potential risk factors for rLDH.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents and anastomotic leak rates across colorectal cancer operations and anastomotic sites: A systematic review and meta-analysis of anastomosis specific leak rate and confounding factors.

BACKGROUND: Surgical intervention presents a fundamental therapeutic choice in the management of colorectal malignancies. Complications, the most serious one being anastomotic leak (AL), still have detrimental effects upon patients' morbidity and mortality. We aimed to assess whether NSAIDs, and their sub-categories, increase AL in colonic anastomoses and to identify whether this affects specific anastomotic sites. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic search of MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov, Web of Science, Science Direct, Google Scholar was conducted between January 1, 1999 till the October 30, 2020. Cohort studies and randomized control trials examining AL events in NSAID-exposed, colorectal cancer patients were included. NSAIDs were grouped according to the 2019 NICE guidelines in non-specific (NS-NSAIDs) and specific COX-2 inhibitors. The primary outcome was AL events in NSAID-exposed patients undergoing operations with either ileocolic, colocolic or colorectal anastomoses. Secondary outcomes included NSAID category-specific AL events and demographic confounding factors increasing AL risk in this patient population. RESULTS: Fifteen studies involving 25,395 patients were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Of all anastomoses, colocolic anastomoses were found to be statistically more prone to AL events in the NS-NSAID-exposed population [OR 3.24 (95% CI 0.98-10.72), p = 0.054]. Male gender was an independent confounder increasing AL rate regardless of NSAID exposure. CONCLUSION: The association between NSAID exposure and AL in oncology patients remains undetermined. Whilst in present work, colocolic anastomoses appear to be more sensitive to AL events, the observed association may be anastomotic site and NSAID-category dependent.

Increased care at discharge from COVID-19: The association between pre-admission frailty and increased care needs after hospital discharge; a multicentre European observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed significant pressure on health and social care. Survivors of COVID-19 may be left with substantial functional deficits requiring ongoing care. We aimed to determine whether pre-admission frailty was associated with increased care needs at discharge for patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. METHODS: Patients were included if aged over 18 years old and admitted to hospital with COVID-19 between 27 February and 10 June 2020. The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) was used to assess pre-admission frailty status. Admission and discharge care levels were recorded. Data were analysed using a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, comorbidities, and admission CRP as a marker of severity of disease. RESULTS: Thirteen hospitals included patients: 1671 patients were screened, and 840 were excluded including, 521 patients who died before discharge (31.1%). Of the 831 patients who were discharged, the median age was 71 years (IQR, 58-81 years) and 369 (44.4%) were women. The median length of hospital stay was 12 days (IQR 6-24). Using the CFS, 438 (47.0%) were living with frailty (≥ CFS 5), and 193 (23.2%) required an increase in the level of care provided. Multivariable analysis showed that frailty was associated with an increase in care needs compared to patients without frailty (CFS 1-3). The adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were as follows: CFS 4, 1.99 (0.97-4.11); CFS 5, 3.77 (1.94-7.32); CFS 6, 4.04 (2.09-7.82); CFS 7, 2.16 (1.12-4.20); and CFS 8, 3.19 (1.06-9.56). CONCLUSIONS: Around a quarter of patients admitted with COVID-19 had increased care needs at discharge. Pre-admission frailty was strongly associated with the need for an increased level of care at discharge. Our results have implications for service planning and public health policy as well as a person's functional outcome, suggesting that frailty screening should be utilised for predictive modelling and early individualised discharge planning.

Nosocomial COVID-19 infection: examining the risk of mortality. The COPE-Nosocomial Study (COVID in Older PEople).

BACKGROUND: Hospital admissions for non-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathology have decreased significantly. It is believed that this may be due to public anxiety about acquiring COVID-19 infection in hospital and the subsequent risk of mortality. AIM: To identify patients who acquire COVID-19 in hospital (nosocomial COVID-19 infection (NC)) and their risk of mortality compared to those with community-acquired COVID-19 (CAC) infection. METHODS: The COPE-Nosocomial Study was an observational cohort study. The primary outcome was the time to all-cause mortality (estimated with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR)), and secondary outcomes were day 7 mortality and the time-to-discharge. A mixed-effects multivariable Cox's proportional hazards model was used, adjusted for demographics and comorbidities. FINDINGS: The study included 1564 patients from 10 hospital sites throughout the UK, and one in Italy, and collected outcomes on patients admitted up to April 28th, 2020. In all, 12.5% of COVID-19 infections were acquired in hospital; 425 (27.2%) patients with COVID died. The median survival time in NC patients was 14 days compared with 10 days in CAC patients. In the primary analysis, NC infection was associated with lower mortality rate (aHR: 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.51-0.98). Secondary outcomes found no difference in day 7 mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.47-1.31), but NC patients required longer time in hospital during convalescence (aHR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37-0.66). CONCLUSION: The minority of COVID-19 cases were the result of NC transmission. No COVID-19 infection comes without risk, but patients with NC had a lower risk of mortality compared to CAC infection; however, caution should be taken when interpreting this finding.

Estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of poor outcomes after stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The relationship of the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with complications after stroke has not been fully characterized for the entire clinical spectrum of eGFR and for the fluctuation in eGFR during hospital stay. METHODS: Data from the Norfolk and Norwich Stroke Registry recorded between January 2003 and April 2015 were analysed. eGFR was categorized into six clinically relevant categories as per the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes guidelines. The change in eGFR during acute admission was categorized into the following: within 5% change (reference), 5%-20% decline, >20% decline, 5%-20% increase and >20% increase. All-cause mortality, recurrent stroke, incident myocardial infarction, prolonged hospital stay and stroke disability at discharge were outcomes of interest. RESULTS: In all, 10 329 stroke patients (mean age 77.8 years) were followed for a mean of 2.9 years (30 126 person-years). Multivariable adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for all-cause mortality were 0.91 (0.80-1.04), 0.96 (0.83-1.11), 1.23 (1.06-1.43), 1.54 (1.31-1.82) and 2.38 (1.91-2.97) for eGFR levels 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29 and <15 respectively, compared to eGFR ≥ 90 ml/min/1.73 m2 . The hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for eGFR change were 1.56 (1.36-1.79), 1.17 (1.05-1.30), 1.47 (1.32-1.62) and 1.71 (1.55-1.88) for >20% decline, 5%-20% decline, 5%-20% increase and >20% increase, respectively, compared to change within 5%. Results were similar for other outcomes except recurrent stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke patients with eGFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m2 at hospital admission and >5% decline or increase in eGFR during hospital stay were at substantially higher risk of poor outcomes, particularly all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, prolonged hospital stay and disability at discharge.

Prevalence and documented causes of hyponatraemia among geriatric patients attending a primary care clinic.

INTRODUCTION: Hyponatraemia is the commonest electrolyte abnormality and has major clinical implications. However, few studies of hyponatraemia in the primary care setting has been published to date. OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence, potential causes and management of hyponatraemia and to identify factors associated with severity of hyponatraemia among older persons in a primary care setting. METHODS: Electronic records were searched to identify all cases aged ≥60 years with a serum sodium <135mmol/l, attending outpatient clinic in 2014. Patients' medical records with the available blood test results of glucose, potassium, urea and creatinine were reviewed. RESULTS: Of the 21,544 elderly, 5873 patients (27.3%) had electrolyte profile tests. 403 (6.9%) had hyponatraemia in at least one blood test. Medical records were available for 253, mean age 72.9±7.3 years, 178 (70.4%) had mild hyponatraemia, 75 (29.6%) had moderate to severe hyponatraemia. Potential causes were documented in 101 (40%). Patients with moderate to severe hyponatraemia were five times more likely to have a cause of hyponatraemia documented (p<0.01). Medications were the commonest documented cause of hyponatraemia (31.7%). Hydrochlorothiazide use was attributed in 25 (78.1%) of 32 with medication-associated hyponatraemia. Repeat renal profile (89%) was the commonest management of hypotonic hyponatraemia. CONCLUSION: Whilst hyponatraemia was common in the clinic setting, many cases were not acknowledged and had no clear management strategies. In view of mild hyponatraemia has deleterious consequences, future studies should determine whether appropriate management of mild hyponatraemia will lead to clinical improvement.

Frailty predicts mortality in all emergency surgical admissions regardless of age. An observational study.

BACKGROUND: frail patients in any age group are more likely to die than those that are not frail. We aimed to evaluate the impact of frailty on clinical mortality, readmission rate and length of stay for emergency surgical patients of all ages. METHODS: a multi-centre prospective cohort study was conducted on adult admissions to acute surgical units. Every patient presenting as a surgical emergency to secondary care, regardless of whether they ultimately underwent a surgical procedure was included. The study was carried out during 2015 and 2016.Frailty was defined using the 7-point Clinical Frailty Scale. The primary outcome was mortality at Day 90. Secondary outcomes included: mortality at Day 30, length of stay and readmission within a Day 30 period. RESULTS: the cohort included 2,279 patients (median age 54 years [IQR 36-72]; 56% female). Frailty was documented in patients of all ages: 1% in the under 40's to 45% of those aged 80+. We found that each incremental step of worsening frailty was associated with an 80% increase in mortality at Day 90 (OR 1.80, 95% CI: 1.61-2.01) supporting a linear dose-response relationship. In addition, the most frail patients were increasingly likely to stay in hospital longer, be readmitted within 30 days, and die within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: worsening frailty at any age is associated with significantly poorer patient outcomes, including mortality in unselected acute surgical admissions. Assessment of frailty should be integrated into emergency surgical practice to allow prognostication and implementation of strategies to improve outcomes.

Orientation and verbal fluency in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing: modifiable risk factors for falls?

OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between falls and deficits in specific cognitive domains in older adults. DESIGN: An analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) cohort. SETTING: United Kingdom community-based. PARTICIPANTS: 5197 community-dwelling older adults recruited to a prospective longitudinal cohort study. MEASUREMENTS: Data on the occurrence of falls and number of falls, which occurred during a 12-month follow-up period, were assessed against the specific cognitive domains of memory, numeracy skills, and executive function. Binomial logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association between each cognitive domain and the dichotomous outcome of falls in the preceding 12 months using unadjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: Of the 5197 participants included in the analysis, 1308 (25%) reported a fall in the preceding 12 months. There was no significant association between the occurrence of a fall and specific forms of cognitive dysfunction after adjusting for self-reported hearing, self-reported eyesight, and functional performance. After adjustment, only orientation (odds ratio [OR]: 0.80; 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.65-0.98, p = 0.03) and verbal fluency (adjusted OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.96-1.00; p = 0.05) remained significant for predicting recurrent falls. CONCLUSIONS: The cognitive phenotype rather than cognitive impairment per se may predict future falls in those presenting with more than one fall.

A practical risk scale for predicting morbidity and mortality in the emergency general surgical setting: A prospective multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: Low albumin is a prognostic factor associated with poor surgical outcomes. We aimed to examine the predicative ability of easily obtainable point-of-care variables in combination, to derive a practical risk scale for predicting older adults at risk of poor outcomes on admission to the emergency general surgical setting. METHODS: This is an international multi-center prospective cohort study conducted as part of the Older Persons Surgical Outcomes Collaboration (www.OPSOC.eu). The effect of having hypoalbuminemia (defined as albumin ≤3.5 g/dL) on selected outcomes was examined using fully adjusted multivariable models. In a subgroup of patients with hypoalbuminemia, we observed four risk characteristics (Male, Anemia, Low albumin, Eighty-five and over [MALE]). Subsequently, the impact of incremental increase in MALE score (each characteristic scoring 1 point (maximum score 4) on measured outcomes was assessed. RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 1406 older patients with median (IQR) age of 76 (70-83) years. In fully adjusted models, hypoalbuminemia was significantly associated with undergoing emergency surgery (1.32 (95%CI 1.03-1.70); p = 0.03), 30-day mortality (4.23 (2.22-8.08); p < 0.001), 90-day mortality (3.36 (2.14-5.28); p < 0.001) (primary outcome), and increased hospital length of stay, irrespective of whether a patient received emergency surgical intervention. Every point increase in MALE score was associated with higher odds of mortality, with a MALE score of 4 being associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR(95% CI) = 33.38 (3.86-288.7); p = 0.001) and 90-day mortality (11.37 (3.85-33.59); p < 0.001) compared to the reference category of those with MALE score 0. CONCLUSIONS: The easy to use and practical MALE risk score calculated at point of care identifies older adults at a greater risk of poor outcomes, thereby allowing clinicians to prioritize patients who may benefit from early comprehensive geriatric assessment in the emergency general surgical setting.

Impact of stroke-associated pneumonia on mortality, length of hospitalization, and functional outcome.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is common and associated with adverse outcomes. Data on its impact beyond 1 year are scarce. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This observational study was conducted in a cohort of stroke patients admitted consecutively to a tertiary referral center in the east of England, UK (January 2003-April 2015). Logistic regression models examined inpatient mortality and length of stay (LOS). Cox regression models examined longer-term mortality at predefined time periods (0-90 days, 90 days-1 year, 1-3 years, and 3-10 years) for SAP. Effect of SAP on functional outcome at discharge was assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 9238 patients (mean age [±SD] 77.61 ± 11.88 years) were included. SAP was diagnosed in 1083 (11.7%) patients. The majority of these cases (n = 658; 60.8%) were aspiration pneumonia. After controlling for age, sex, stroke type, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project (OCSP) classification, prestroke modified Rankin scale, comorbidities, and acute illness markers, mortality estimates remained significant at 3 time periods: inpatient (OR 5.87, 95%CI [4.97-6.93]), 0-90 days (2.17 [1.97-2.40]), and 91-365 days (HR 1.31 [1.03-1.67]). SAP was also associated with higher odds of long LOS (OR 1.93 [1.67-2.22]) and worse functional outcome (OR 7.17 [5.44-9.45]). In this cohort, SAP did not increase mortality risk beyond 1 year post-stroke, but it was associated with reduced mortality beyond 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke-associated pneumonia is not associated with increased long-term mortality, but it is linked with increased mortality up to 1 year, prolonged LOS, and poor functional outcome on discharge. Targeted intervention strategies are required to improve outcomes of SAP patients who survive to hospital discharge.

Impact of HIV on inpatient mortality and complications in stroke in Thailand: a National Database Study.

The co-existence of stroke and HIV has increased in recent years, but the impact of HIV on post-stroke outcomes is poorly understood. We examined the impact of HIV on inpatient mortality, length of acute hospital stay and complications (pneumonia, respiratory failure, sepsis and convulsions), in hospitalized strokes in Thailand. All hospitalized strokes between 1 October 2004 and 31 January 2013 were included. Data were obtained from a National Insurance Database. Characteristics and outcomes for non-HIV and HIV patients were compared and multivariate logistic and linear regression models were constructed to assess the above outcomes. Of 610 688 patients (mean age 63·4 years, 45·4% female), 0·14% (866) had HIV infection. HIV patients were younger, a higher proportion were male and had higher prevalence of anaemia (P < 0·001) compared to non-HIV patients. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors, hypertension and diabetes, were more common in the non-HIV group (P < 0·001). After adjusting for age, sex, stroke type and co-morbidities, HIV infection was significantly associated with higher odds of sepsis [odds ratio (OR) 1·75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·29-2·4], and inpatient mortality (OR 2·15, 95% CI 1·8-2·56) compared to patients without HIV infection. The latter did not attenuate after controlling for complications (OR 2·20, 95% CI 1·83-2·64). HIV infection is associated with increased odds of sepsis and inpatient mortality after acute stroke.

Addition of sodium criterion to SOAR stroke score.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the usefulness of including sodium (Na) levels as a criterion to the SOAR stroke score in predicting inpatient and 7-day mortality in stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from the Norfolk and Norwich University Hospital Stroke & TIA register (2003-2015) were analysed. Univariate and then multivariate models controlling for SOAR variables were used to assess the association between admission sodium levels and inpatient and 7-day mortality. The prognostic ability of the SOAR and SOAR Na scores for mortality outcomes at both time points were then compared using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values from the Receiver Operating Characteristic curves. RESULTS: A total of 8493 cases were included (male=47.4%, mean (SD) 77.7 (11.6) years). Compared with normonatremia (135-145 mmol/L), hypernatraemia (>145 mmol/L) was associated with inpatient mortality and moderate (125-129 mmol/L) and severe hypontraemia (<125 mmol/L) with 7-day mortality after adjustment for stroke type, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, age, prestroke modified Rankin score and sex. The SOAR and SOAR-Na scores both performed well in predicting inpatient mortality with AUC values of .794 (.78-.81) and .796 (.78-.81), respectively. 7-day mortality showed similar results. Both scores were less predictive in those with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and more so in those with hypoglycaemia. CONCLUSION: The SOAR-Na did not perform considerably better than the SOAR stroke score. However, the performance of SOAR-Na in those with CKD and dysglycaemias requires further investigation.

Habitual chocolate consumption and the risk of incident heart failure among healthy men and women.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the association between chocolate intake and the risk of incident heart failure in a UK general population. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify this association. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used data from a prospective population-based study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort. Chocolate intake was quantified based on a food frequency questionnaire obtained at baseline (1993-1997) and incident heart failure was ascertained up to March 2009. We supplemented the primary data with a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies which evaluated risk of incident heart failure with chocolate consumption. A total of 20,922 participants (53% women; mean age 58 ± 9 years) were included of whom 1101 developed heart failure during the follow up (mean 12.5 ± 2.7 years, total person years 262,291 years). After adjusting for lifestyle and dietary factors, we found 19% relative reduction in heart failure incidence in the top (up to 100 g/d) compared to the bottom quintile of chocolate consumption (HR 0.81 95%CI 0.66-0.98) but the results were no longer significant after controlling for comorbidities (HR 0.87 95%CI 0.71-1.06). Additional adjustment for potential mediators did not attenuate the results further. We identified five relevant studies including the current study (N = 75,408). The pooled results showed non-significant 19% relative risk reduction of heart failure incidence with higher chocolate consumption (HR 0.81 95%CI 0.66-1.01). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that higher chocolate intake is not associated with subsequent incident heart failure.

Frailty and cognitive impairment: Unique challenges in the older emergency surgical patient.

INTRODUCTION: Older patients (>65 years of age) admitted as general surgical emergencies increasingly require improved recognition of their specific needs relative to younger patients. Two such needs are frailty and cognitive impairment. These are evolving research areas that the emergency surgeon increasingly requires knowledge of to improve short- and long-term patient outcomes. METHODS: This paper reviews the evidence for frailty and cognitive impairment in the acute surgical setting by defining frailty and cognitive impairment, introducing methods of diagnosis, discussing the influence on prognosis and proposing strategies to improve older patient outcomes. RESULTS: Frailty is present in 25% of the older surgical population. Using frailty-scoring tools, frailty was associated with a significantly longer hospital stay and higher mortality at 30 and 90 days after admission to an acute surgical unit. Cognitive impairment is present in a high number of older acute surgical patients (approximately 70%), whilst acute onset cognitive impairment, termed delirium, is documented in 18%. However, patients with delirium had significantly longer hospital stays and higher in-hospital mortality than those with cognitive impairment. CONCLUSIONS: Improved knowledge of frailty and delirium by the emergency surgeon allows the specialised needs of older surgical patients to be taken into account. Early recognition, and consideration of minimally invasive surgery or radiological intervention alongside potentially transferable successful elective interventions such as comprehensive geriatric assessment, may help to improve short- and long-term patient outcomes in this vulnerable population.

Long-term mortality of hospitalized pneumonia in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

Little is known about cause-specific long-term mortality beyond 30 days in pneumonia. We aimed to compare the mortality of patients with hospitalized pneumonia compared to age- and sex-matched controls beyond 30 days. Participants were drawn from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk prospective population study. Hospitalized pneumonia cases were identified from record linkage (ICD-10: J12-J18). For this study we excluded people with hospitalized pneumonia who died within 30 days. Each case identified was matched to four controls and followed up until the end June 2012 (total 15 074 person-years, mean 6·1 years, range 0·08-15·2 years). Cox regression models were constructed to examine the all-cause, respiratory and cardiovascular mortality using date of pneumonia onset as baseline with binary pneumonia status as exposure. A total of 2465 men and women (503 cases, 1962 controls) [mean age (s.d.) 64·5 (8·3) years] were included in the study. Between a 30-day to 1-year period, hazard ratios (HRs) of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 7·3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5·4-9·9] and 5·9 (95% CI 3·5-9·7), respectively (with very few respiratory deaths within the same period) in cases compared to controls after adjusting for age, sex, asthma, smoking status, pack years, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, physical activity, waist-to-hip ratio, prevalent cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. All outcomes assessed also showed increased risk of death in cases compared to controls after 1 year; respiratory cause of death being the most significant during that period (HR 16·4, 95% CI 8·9-30·1). Hospitalized pneumonia was associated with increased all-cause and specific-cause mortality beyond 30 days.

Prognostic indices for early mortality in ischaemic stroke - meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Several models have been developed to predict mortality in ischaemic stroke. We aimed to evaluate systematically the performance of published stroke prognostic scores. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE in February 2014 for prognostic models (published between 2003 and 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) after ischaemic stroke. We evaluated discriminant ability of the tools through meta-analysis of the area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of study validity: collection of prognostic variables, neuroimaging, treatment pathways and missing data. RESULTS: We identified 18 articles (involving 163 240 patients) reporting on the performance of prognostic models for mortality in ischaemic stroke, with 15 articles providing AUC for meta-analysis. Most studies were either retrospective, or post hoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but three reported validation data. The iSCORE had the largest number of validation cohorts (five) within our systematic review and showed good performance in four different countries, pooled AUC 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.87). We identified other potentially useful prognostic tools that have yet to be as extensively validated as iSCORE - these include SOAR (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.80), GWTG (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.72) and PLAN (1 study, pooled AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Our meta-analysis has identified and summarized the performance of several prognostic scores with modest to good predictive accuracy for early mortality in ischaemic stroke, with the iSCORE having the broadest evidence base.

Does anticholinergics drug burden relate to global neuro-disability outcome measures and length of hospital stay?

PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between disability, length of stay (LOS) and anticholinergic burden (ACB) with people following acquired brain or spinal cord injury. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective case note review assessed total rehabilitation unit admission. METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Assessment of 52 consecutive patients with acquired brain/spinal injury and neuropathy in an in-patient neuro-rehabilitation unit of a UK university hospital. Data analysed included: Northwick Park Dependency Score (NPDS), Rehabilitation complexity Scale (RCS), Functional Independence Measure and Functional Assessment Measure FIM-FAM (UK version 2.2), LOS and ACB. Outcome was different in RCS, NPDS and FIM-FAM between admission and discharge. MAIN OUTCOMES AND RESULTS: A positive change was reported in ACB results in a positive change in NPDS, with no significant effect on FIM-FAM, either Motor or Cognitive, or on the RCS. Change in ACB correlated to the length of hospital stay (regression correlation = -6.64; SE = 3.89). There was a significant harmful impact of increase in ACB score during hospital stay, from low to high ACB on NPDS (OR = 9.65; 95% CI = 1.36-68.64) and FIM-FAM Total scores (OR = 0.03; 95% CI = 0.002-0.35). CONCLUSIONS: There was a statistically significant correlation of ACB and neuro-disability measures and LOS amongst this patient cohort.