The prevalence of probable depression and probable anxiety, and associations with adverse childhood experiences and socio-demographics: A national survey in South Africa.

Objective and methods: Mental health problems among adults are a growing public health concern, and middle-income countries such as South Africa are disproportionally affected. Using a large scale nationally representative weighted survey, we assessed the prevalence of probable depression, probable anxiety, and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), and explored associations between probable depression, probable anxiety, ACEs, socio-economic status, and demographic characteristics. Results: Nationally, 25.7, 17.8, and 23.6% of respondents, respectively, reported scores of ≥10 on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) and Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7), indicating probable depression or probable anxiety, and an ACE score of ≥4 (high exposure). Overall probable depression prevalence across South Africa varied from 14.7 to 38.8%. Both probable depression and probable anxiety were more frequently reported among adults who were: retired and older (>65 years of age), and widowed, divorced, or separated; living in metropolitan areas; and only had primary school education. In a multivariable adjusted logistic regression, the likelihood of reporting probable depression or probable anxiety was also found to increase with each standard deviation increase in the ACE score (p < 0.001), independent of other socio-demographic determinants. Conclusion: The prevalence of probable depression among respondents in South Africa varies significantly across the nine provinces. Furthermore, higher ACE score and several socio-demographic determinants were associated with a higher likelihood of probable depression and probable anxiety. Adult mental health services are urgently needed to identify groups of the population vulnerable to mental health problems for better targeting of interventions. Given the range of probable depression prevalence across the country, provincial level plans and resources should also reflect the burden of mental health problems in that province.

Assessing the prevalence of young children living in households prepared for COVID-19 in 56 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and governments' attempts to contain it are negatively affecting young children's health and development in ways we are only beginning to understand and measure. Responses to the pandemic are driven largely by confining children and families to their homes. This study aims to assess the levels of and associated socioeconomic disparities in household preparedness for protecting young children under the age of five from being exposed to communicable diseases, such as COVID-19, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Using data from nationally representative household surveys in 56 LMICs since 2016, we estimated the percentages of young children under the age of five living in households prepared for communicable diseases (e.g., COVID-19) and associated residential and wealth disparities at the country- and aggregate-level. Preparedness was defined on the basis of space for quarantine, adequacy of toilet facilities and hand hygiene, mass media exposure at least once a week, and phone ownership. Disparities within countries were measured as the absolute gap in two domains-household wealth and residential area - and compared across regions and country income groups. RESULTS: The final data set included 766,313 children under age five. On average, 19.4% of young children in the 56 countries lived in households prepared for COVID-19, ranging from 0.6% in Ethiopia in 2016 to 70.9% in Tunisia in 2018. In close to 90% of countries (50), fewer than 50% of young children lived in prepared households. Young children in rural areas or in the poorest households were less likely to live in prepared households than their counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: A large portion of young children under the age of five in LMICs were living in households that did not meet all preparedness guidelines for preventing COVID-19 and caring for patients at home. This study highlights the need to ensure all families in LMICs have the means to prevent the spread of the pandemic or other communicable illnesses to young children during pandemics.

The Long-Term Health and Human Capital Consequences of Adverse Childhood Experiences in the Birth to Thirty Cohort: Single, Cumulative, and Clustered Adversity.

Human capital-that is the cumulative abilities, education, social skills, and mental and physical health one possesses-is increasingly recognized as key to the reduction of inequality in societies. Adverse childhood experiences have been linked to a range of human capital indicators, with the majority of research in high-income, western settings. This study aims to examine the link between adverse childhood experiences and adult human capital in a South African birth cohort and to test whether associations differ by measurement of adversity. Secondary analysis of data from the Birth to Thirty study was undertaken. Exposure data on adversity was collected prospectively throughout childhood and retrospectively at age 22. Human capital outcomes were collected at age 28. Adversity was measured as single adverse experiences, cumulative adversity, and clustered adversity. All three measurements of adversity were linked to poor human capital outcomes, with risk for poor human capital increasing with the accumulation of adversity. Adversity was clustered by quantity (low versus high) and type (household dysfunction versus abuse). Adversity in childhood was linked to a broad range of negative outcomes in young adulthood regardless of how it was measured. Nevertheless, issues of measurement are important to understand the risk mechanisms that underlie the association between adversity and poor human capital.

Secondary analysis of retrospective and prospective reports of adverse childhood experiences and mental health in young adulthood: Filtered through recent stressors.

BACKGROUND: Evidence has identified the detrimental effects that adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have on outcomes across the life course. We assess associations between prospective and retrospective ACEs and mental health in young adulthood and the influence of recent stressors. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a sample of 1592 young adults from the Birth to Twenty Plus cohort, from 1990 to 2013, were assessed throughout their first 18 years for prospective ACEs. Retrospective ACEs and an assessment of mental health were collected at the 22-23-year data point. FINDINGS: Prospective physical and sexual abuse are associated with an increased risk of depression (OR 1·7 [95% CI 1·37-1·93, p = 0·034], and OR 1·8 [95% CI 1·27-2·07, p = 0·018], respectively). Retrospective emotional abuse/neglect is associated with increased anxiety (OR 1·8 [95% CI 1·32-2·36, p = 0·000]), depression (OR 1·6 [95% CI 1·08-2·25, p = 0·018]) and overall psychological distress (OR 1·6 [95% CI 1·18-2·17, p = 0·002]). Prospectively reporting four or more ACEs is associated with a twofold increase in risk for overall psychological distress (OR 2·2 [95% CI 1·58-3.12, p = 0·008]). Retrospectively reporting four or more ACEs is associated with increased likelihood of somatization (p = 0·004), anxiety (p = 0·002), depression (p = 0·021), and overall psychological distress (p = 0·005). INTERPRETATION: Both individual and combined retrospective and prospective ACEs are related to mental health in young adulthood. Recent stressors reinforce this relationship; the likelihood of those who report more ACEs experiencing psychological distress increases when adjusting for recent stressors. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust (UK), South African Medical Research Council, Human Sciences Research Council, University of the Witwatersrand and supported by the DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence in Human Development.

Measuring and forecasting progress in education: what about early childhood?

A recent Nature article modelled within-country inequalities in primary, secondary, and tertiary education and forecast progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets related to education (SDG 4). However, their paper entirely overlooks inequalities in achieving Target 4.2, which aims to achieve universal access to quality early childhood development, care and preschool education by 2030. This is an important omission because of the substantial brain, cognitive and socioemotional developments that occur in early life and because of increasing evidence of early-life learning's large impacts on subsequent education and lifetime wellbeing. We provide an overview of this evidence and use new analyses to illustrate medium- and long-term implications of early learning, first by presenting associations between pre-primary programme participation and adolescent mathematics and science test scores in 73 countries and secondly, by estimating the costs of inaction (not making pre-primary programmes universal) in terms of forgone lifetime earnings in 134 countries. We find considerable losses, comparable to or greater than current governmental expenditures on all education (as percentages of GDP), particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries. In addition to improving primary, secondary and tertiary schooling, we conclude that to attain SDG 4 and reduce inequalities in a post-COVID era, it is essential to prioritize quality early childhood care and education, including adopting policies that support families to promote early learning and their children's education.

Adolescent Mental Health Problems and Adult Human Capital: Findings From the South African Birth to Twenty Plus Cohort at 28 Years of Age.

PURPOSE: We investigated associations between adolescent internalizing and externalizing problems and adult human capital in a non-Western setting. Little is known about adolescent mental health problems and adult outcomes in low- and middle-income countries, many of which are characterized by high levels of adversities. METHODS: Data came from the Birth to Twenty Plus cohort, started in Soweto, Johannesburg, South Africa, in 1990. We estimated associations of internalizing and externalizing problems at the age of 14 years with self-reported educational, employment, welfare receipt, psychosocial (psychological distress, criminality, substance use), interpersonal (social isolation, intimate partner violence, partnership status), and HIV outcomes at the age of 28 years. RESULTS: Adolescents with high internalizing problems were less likely to have completed secondary school or be formally employed and more likely to report psychological distress. Those with high levels of externalizing problems were more likely to report adulthood criminal activity and substance use. We found significant associations between internalizing and externalizing problems and intimate partner violence. There was no association between adolescent mental health problems and welfare receipt, HIV, social isolation, or partnership status. Men were more likely to report incomplete secondary education, no formal employment, criminality and substance use, social isolation, and no serious relationship, whereas women were more likely to experience psychological distress and be in receipt of welfare. CONCLUSIONS: Adolescent mental health problems are associated with long-term negative adult functioning under varying socioeconomic conditions. Interventions to recognize and address youth mental health problems in low- and middle-income countries are needed to avert serious adverse adult and societal consequences.

An analysis of retrospective and repeat prospective reports of adverse childhood experiences from the South African Birth to Twenty Plus cohort.

Most studies rely on cross-sectional retrospective reports from adult samples to collect information about adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) to examine relationships with adult outcomes. The problems associated with these reports have long been debated, with only a few studies determining their reliability and validity and fewer still reaching consensus on the matter. This paper uses repeat prospective and retrospective reports of adverse childhood experiences from two respondent sources in the South African Birth to Twenty Plus (Bt20+) cohort to explore agreement and concordance in the prospective reporting of ACEs by caregivers and respective children as adolescents and then as young adults. The findings demonstrate little overall agreement between prospective and retrospective accounts of childhood experiences, with 80% of kappa values below the moderate agreement cutoff (k = .41). The highest levels of agreement were found between prospective and retrospective reporting on parental and household death (kappas ranging from .519 to .944). Comparisons between prospective caregiver reports and retrospective young adult reports yielded high concordance rates on sexual and physical abuse and exposure to intimate partner violence (91.0%, 87.7% and 80.2%, respectively). The prevalence of reported ACEs varied with the age of the respondent, with adolescents reporting much higher rates of exposure to violence, physical and sexual abuse than are reported retrospectively or by caregivers. This variation may partly reflect actual changes in circumstances with maturation, but may be influenced by developmental stage and issues of memory, cognition and emotional state more than has been considered in previous analyses. More research, across disciplines, is needed to understand these processes and their effect on recall. Long-term prospective studies are critical for this purpose. In conclusion, methodological research that uses a range of information sources to establish the reliability and validity of both retrospective and prospective reports ‒ recognizing that the two approaches may fundamentally answer different questions ‒ should be encouraged.