Insights into drug development with quantitative systems pharmacology: A prospective case study of uncovering hyperkalemia risk in diabetic nephropathy with virtual clinical trials.

The quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) approach is widely applied to address various essential questions in drug discovery and development, such as identification of the mechanism of action of a therapeutic agent, patient stratification, and the mechanistic understanding of the progression of disease. In this review article, we show the current landscape of the application of QSP modeling using a survey of QSP publications over 10 years from 2013 to 2022. We also present a use case for the risk assessment of hyperkalemia in patients with diabetic nephropathy treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs, renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors), as a prospective simulation of late clinical development. A QSP model for generating virtual patients with diabetic nephropathy was used to quantitatively assess that the nonsteroidal MRAs, finerenone and apararenone, have a lower risk of hyperkalemia than the steroidal MRA, eplerenone. Prospective simulation studies using a QSP model are useful to prioritize pharmaceutical candidates in clinical development and validate mechanism-based pharmacological concepts related to the risk-benefit, before conducting large-scale clinical trials.

Quantitative Consideration of Clinical Increases in Serum Creatinine Caused by Renal Transporter Inhibition.

Creatinine is a common biomarker of renal function and is secreted in the renal tubular cells via drug transporters, such as organic cation transporter 2 and multidrug and toxin extrusion (MATE) 1/2-K. To differentiate between drug-induced acute kidney injury (AKI) and drug interactions through the renal transporter, it has been examined whether these transporter inhibitions quantitatively explained increases in serum creatinine (SCr) at their clinically relevant concentrations using drugs without any changes in renal function. For such renal transporter inhibitors and recently approved tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), this mini-review describes clinical increases in SCr and inhibitory potentials against the renal transporters. Most cases of SCr elevations can be explained by considering the renal transporter inhibitions based on unbound maximum plasma concentrations, except for drugs associated with obvious changes in renal function. SCr increases for cobicistat, dolutegravir, and dronedarone, and some TKIs were significantly underestimated, and these underestimations were suggested to be associated with low plasma unbound fractions. Sensitivity analysis of SCr elevations regarding inhibitory potentials of MATE1/2-K demonstrated that typical inhibitors such as cimetidine, DX-619, pyrimethamine, and trimethoprim could give false interpretations of AKI according to the criteria based on relative or absolute levels of SCr elevations. Recent progress and current challenges of physiologically-based pharmacokinetics modeling for creatinine disposition were also summarized. Although it should be noted for the potential impact of in vitro assay designs on clinical translatability of transporter inhibitions data, mechanistic approaches could support decision-making in clinical development to differentiate between AKI and creatinine-drug interactions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Serum creatinine (SCr) is widely used as an indicator of kidney function, but it increases due to inhibitions of renal transporters, such as multidrug and toxin extrusion protein 1/2-K despite no functional changes in the kidney. Such SCr elevations were quantitatively explained by renal transporter inhibitions except for some drugs with high protein binding. The present analysis demonstrated that clinically relevant inhibitors of the renal transporters could cause SCr elevations above levels corresponding to acute kidney injury criteria.

Systems model identifies baseline cytokine concentrations as potential predictors of rheumatoid arthritis inflammatory response to biologics.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Circulating cytokines are central pathological mediators of inflammatory autoimmune diseases like rheumatoid arthritis. Immunological diversity in patients might contribute to inadequate responses to biological drugs. To address this therapeutic challenge, we developed a mathematical model that simultaneously describes temporal patterns of drug disposition for several biologics and their corresponding targeted cytokines, which were linked to triggering inflammatory responses. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: A modelling framework was applied to rheumatoid arthritis-relevant cytokines regulating C-reactive protein (CRP) as an inflammatory marker. Clinical data were extracted from the literature for anakinra, canakinumab, infliximab, secukinumab and tocilizumab, along with their corresponding cytokines, interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, IL-1ß, tumour necrosis factor α (TNFα), IL-17A and IL-6 receptor (IL-6R). Based on prior knowledge of regulatory mechanisms, cytokines were integrated with CRP profiles. KEY RESULTS: The model well captured all serum concentration-time profiles of cytokines and CRP ratios to respective baselines following drug treatment with good precision. On external validation, reasonable model performance on CRP dynamics, including rebound effects, was confirmed with clinical data not used in model development. Model-based simulations demonstrated that serum infliximab concentrations were accurately recapitulated in both a dose- and baseline TNFα-dependent manner. Furthermore, high baseline profiles of both IL-1ß and/or targeted cytokines could be predictors of poor responses to biologics targeting TNFα and IL-6R, although the impact of IL-1ß must be carefully interpreted. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATION: Our model provides a quantitative platform to guide targeting and dosing strategies, including combination and/or sequential therapy, according to distinct baseline cytokine patterns in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Prediction of human pharmacokinetics for low-clearance compounds using pharmacokinetic data from chimeric mice with humanized livers.

Development of low-clearance (CL) compounds that are slowly metabolized is a major goal in the pharmaceutical industry. However, the pursuit of low intrinsic CL (CLint ) often leads to significant challenges in evaluating the pharmacokinetics of such compounds. Although in vitro-in vivo extrapolation is widely used to predict human CL, its application has been limited for low-CLint compounds because of the low turnover of parent compounds in metabolic stability assays. To address this issue, we focused on chimeric mice with humanized livers (PXB-mice), which have been increasingly reported to accurately predict human CL in recent years. The predictive accuracy for nine low-CLint compounds with no significant turnover in a human hepatocyte assay was investigated using PXB-mouse methods, such as single-species allometric scaling (PXB-SSS) approach and a novel physiologically based scaling (PXB-PBS) approach that assumes that the CLint per hepatocyte is equal between humans and PXB-mice. The percentages of compounds with predicted CL within 2- and 3-fold ranges of the observed CL for low-CLint compounds were 89% and 100%, respectively, for both PXB-SSS and PXB-PBS approaches. Moreover, the predicted CL was mostly consistent among the methods. Conversely, the percentages of compounds with predicted CL within 2- and 3-fold ranges of the observed CL for low-CLint compounds were 50% and 63%, respectively, for multispecies allometric (MA) scaling. Overall, these PXB-mouse methods were much more accurate than conventional MA scaling approaches, suggesting that PXB-mice are useful tools for predicting the human CL of low-CLint compounds that are slowly metabolized.

Mechanistic evaluation of the effect of sodium-dependent glucose transporter 2 inhibitors on delayed glucose absorption in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using a quantitative systems pharmacology model of human systemic glucose dynamics.

Sodium-dependent glucose transporter (SGLT) 2 is specifically expressed in the kidney, while SGLT1 is present in the kidneys and small intestine. SGLT2 inhibitors are a class of oral antidiabetic drugs that lower elevated plasma glucose levels by promoting the urinary excretion of excess glucose through the inhibition of renal glucose reuptake. The inhibition selectivity for SGLT2 over SGLT1 (SGLT2/1 selectivity) of marketed SGLT2 inhibitors is diverse, while SGLT2/1 selectivity of canagliflozin is relatively low. Although canagliflozin suppresses postprandial glucose levels, the degree of contribution for SGLT1 inhibition to this effect remains unproven. To analyze the effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on postprandial glucose level, we constructed a novel quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model, called human systemic glucose dynamics (HSGD) model, integrating intestinal absorption, metabolism, and renal reabsorption of glucose. This HSGD model reproduced the postprandial plasma glucose concentration-time profiles during a meal tolerance test under different clinical trial conditions. Simulations after canagliflozin administration showed a dose-dependent delay of time (Tmax,glc ) to reach maximum concentration of glucose (Cmax,glc ), and the delay of Tmax,glc disappeared when inhibition of SGLT1 was negated. In addition, contribution ratio of intestinal SGLT1 inhibition to the decrease in Cmax,glc was estimated to be 23%-28%, when 100 and 300 mg of canagliflozin are administered. This HSGD model enabled us to provide the partial contribution of intestinal SGLT1 inhibition to the improvement of postprandial hyperglycemia as well as to quantitatively describe the plasma glucose dynamics following SGLT2 inhibitors.

Estimation of changes in serum creatinine and creatinine clearance caused by renal transporter inhibition in healthy subjects.

Creatinine is excreted into urine by glomerular filtration and renal tubular secretion through drug transporters such as organic anion transporter 2 (OAT2), organic cation transporter 2 (OCT2), OCT3, multidrug and toxin extrusion protein 1 (MATE1), and MATE2-K. We aimed to investigate whether our method for estimating percentage changes in serum creatinine concentration (SCr) and creatinine clearance (CLcre) from the baseline is applicable for studying renal transporter inhibitors. We tested 14 compounds (cimetidine, cobicistat, dolutegravir, dronedarone, DX-619, famotidine, INCB039110, nizatidine, ondansetron, pyrimethamine, rabeprazole, ranolazine, trimethoprim, and vandetanib), which were reported to cause reversible changes in SCr and/or CLcre in healthy subjects excluding elderly. Percentage changes were estimated from the relative contributions of the forementioned transporters to CLcre and competitive inhibition by these compounds at their maximum plasma unbound concentrations. For 7 and 9 out of these compounds, changes in SCr and/or CLcre were estimated within 2- and 3-fold of observed values, respectively. Less than 10% changes in SCr and/or CLcre caused by cobicistat, dolutegravir, and rabeprazole were reproduced as such by our method. These findings suggest that our method can be used to estimate changes in SCr and CLcre caused by competitive inhibitions of renal drug transporters.

Prediction of Human Distribution Volumes of Compounds in Various Elimination Phases Using Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling and Experimental Pharmacokinetics in Animals.

Predicting the pharmacokinetics of compounds in humans is an important part of the drug development process. In this study, the plasma concentration profiles of 10 marketed compounds exhibiting two-phase elimination after intravenous administration in humans were evaluated in terms of distribution volumes just after intravenous administration (V 1), at steady state (V ss), and in the elimination phase (Vß ) using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling implemented in a commercially available simulator (Simcyp). When developing human PBPK models, the insight gained from prior animal PBPK models based on nonclinical data informed the optimization of the lipophilicity input of the compounds and the selection of the appropriate mechanistic tissue partition methods. The accuracy of V 1, V ss, and Vß values predicted that using human PBPK models developed in accordance with prior animal PBPK models was superior to using those predicted using conventional approaches, such as allometric scaling, especially for V 1 and Vß By conventional approaches, the V 1 and Vß values of 4-5 of 10 compounds were predicted within a 3-fold error of observed values, whereas V ss values for their majority were predicted as such. PBPK models predicted V 1, V ss, and Vß values for almost all compounds within 3-fold errors, resulting in better predictions of plasma concentration profiles than allometric scaling. The distribution volumes predicted using human PBPK models based on prior animal PBPK modeling were more accurate than those predicted without reference to animal models. This study demonstrated that human PBPK models developed with consideration of animal PBPK models could accurately predict distribution volumes in various elimination phases.

Quantitative analysis of elevation of serum creatinine via renal transporter inhibition by trimethoprim in healthy subjects using physiologically-based pharmacokinetic model.

Serum creatinine (SCr) levels rise during trimethoprim therapy for infectious diseases. This study aimed to investigate whether the elevation of SCr can be quantitatively explained using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model incorporating inhibition by trimethoprim on tubular secretion of creatinine via renal transporters such as organic cation transporter 2 (OCT2), OCT3, multidrug and toxin extrusion protein 1 (MATE1), and MATE2-K. Firstly, pharmacokinetic parameters in the PBPK model of trimethoprim were determined to reproduce the blood concentration profile after a single intravenous and oral administration of trimethoprim in healthy subjects. The model was verified with datasets of both cumulative urinary excretions after a single administration and the blood concentration profile after repeated oral administration. The pharmacokinetic model of creatinine consisted of the creatinine synthesis rate, distribution volume, and creatinine clearance (CLcre), including tubular secretion via each transporter. When combining the models for trimethoprim and creatinine, the predicted increments in SCr from baseline were 29.0%, 39.5%, and 25.8% at trimethoprim dosages of 5 mg/kg (b.i.d.), 5 mg/kg (q.i.d.), and 200 mg (b.i.d.), respectively, which were comparable with the observed values. The present model analysis enabled us to quantitatively explain increments in SCr during trimethoprim treatment by its inhibition of renal transporters.

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Unbound Intracellular-to-Medium Concentration Ratios in Rat and Human Hepatocytes Using Statins.

It is essential to estimate concentrations of unbound drugs inside the hepatocytes to predict hepatic clearance, efficacy, and toxicity of the drugs. The present study was undertaken to compare predictability of the unbound hepatocyte-to-medium concentration ratios (Kp,uu) by two methods based on the steady-state cell-to-medium total concentration ratios at 37°C and on ice (Kp,uu,ss) and based on their initial uptake rates (Kp,uu,V0). Poorly metabolized statins were used as test drugs because of their concentrative uptake via organic anion-transporting polypeptides. Kp,uu,ss values of these statins provided less interexperimental variation than the Kp,uu,V0 values, because only data at longer time are required for Kp,uu,ss Kp,uu,V0 values for pitavastatin, rosuvastatin, and pravastatin were 1.2- to 5.1-fold Kp,uu,ss in rat hepatocytes; Kp,uu,V0 values in human hepatocytes also tended to be larger than corresponding Kp,uu,ss To explain these discrepancies, theoretical values of Kp,uu,ss and Kp,uu,V0 were compared with true Kp,uu (Kp,uu,true), considering the inside-negative membrane potential and ionization of the drugs in hepatocytes and medium. Membrane potentials were approximately -30 mV in human hepatocytes at 37°C and almost abolished on ice. Theoretical equations considering the membrane potentials indicate that Kp,uu,ss values for the statins are 0.85- to 1.2-fold Kp,uu,true, whereas Kp,uu,V0 values are 2.2- to 3.1-fold Kp,uu,true, depending on the ratio of the passive permeability of the ionized to nonionized forms. In conclusion, Kp,uu,ss values of anions are similar to Kp,uu,true when the inside-negative membrane potential is considered. This suggests that Kp,uu,ss is preferable for estimating the concentration of unbound drugs inside the hepatocytes.

Evaluation of the potency of telaprevir and its metabolites as inhibitors of renal organic cation transporters, a potential mechanism for the elevation of serum creatinine.

Telaprevir-based triple therapy is a highly effective treatment for chronic hepatitis C. However, adverse reactions include reversible and dose-dependent elevation of serum creatinine levels. We speculated that this effect reflects inhibition of the renal organic cation transporters hOCT2, hMATE1, and hMATE2-K by telaprevir or its metabolites (VRT-127394 and VRT-0922061). Telaprevir, VRT-127394, and VRT-0922061 showed negligible or weak effects on hOCT2 at concentrations of ≥20 µM, but inhibited hMATE1 by 35, 38, and 53% and hMATE2-K by 47, 45, and 61% at 100 µM, respectively. Telaprevir or its metabolites (10 µM) did not affect basal-to-apical transport of MPP(+) across monolayers of hOCT2-hMATE1 double-transfected MDCKII cells, whereas pyrimethamine, a potent inhibitor of hMATE1, markedly inhibited MPP(+) transport. Taken together, inhibition of hOCT2, hMATE1, and hMATE2-K is unlikely to be clinically relevant because unbound plasma concentrations of telaprevir and its metabolites reach only 2 µM following oral administration of a dose of 750 mg telaprevir. Hence, elevated serum creatinine during telaprevir therapy may not be related to direct inhibition of renal organic cation transporters.

Lung tumorigenesis promoted by anti-apoptotic effects of cotinine, a nicotine metabolite through activation of PI3K/Akt pathway.

We previously found that genetic polymorphism in cytochrome P450 2A6 (CYP2A6) is one of the potential determinants of tobacco-related lung cancer risk. It has been reported that the plasma concentration of cotinine, a major metabolite of nicotine, in carriers of wild-type alleles of CYP2A6 is considerably higher than that in carriers of null or reduced-function alleles of CYP2A6, raising the possibility that cotinine plays an important role in the development of lung cancer. As a novel mechanism of lung tumorigenesis mediated by CYP2A6, we investigated the effects of cotinine on the suppression of apoptosis and promotion of lung tumor growth. In human lung adenocarcinoma A549 cells, cotinine inhibited doxorubicin-induced cell death by suppressing caspase-mediated apoptosis. Enhanced phosphorylation of Akt, a key factor responsible for cell survival and inhibition of apoptosis, was detected after cotinine treatment. These data suggest that cotinine suppresses caspase-mediated apoptosis induced by doxorubicin through activation of the PI3K/Akt pathway. Furthermore, we clarified that cotinine significantly facilitated tumor growth in the Lewis lung cancer model and accelerated development of lung adenomas induced by 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone in A/J mice. We herein propose that cotinine induces tumor promotion by inhibiting apoptosis and enhancing cellular proliferation, thus underlining the importance of CYP2A6 in tobacco-related lung tumorigenesis.