The living heart: Climate gradients predict desert mountain endemism.

Mountain regions are centers of biodiversity endemism at a global scale but the role of arid-zone mountain ranges in shaping biodiversity patterns is poorly understood. Focusing on three guilds of taxa from a desert upland refugium in Australia, we sought to determine: (a) the relative extent to which climate, terrain or geological substrate predict endemism, and (b) whether patterns of endemism are complimentary across broad taxonomic guilds. We mapped regional endemism for plants, land snails, and vertebrates using combined Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for all endemic taxa (n = 82). We then modelled predictors of endemism using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) and geology, terrain, and climate variables. We tested for the presence of inter- and intraguild hotspots of endemism. Many individual plant and land snail taxa were tightly linked with geology, corresponding to small distributions. Conversely, most vertebrate taxa were not constrained to specific geological substrates and occurred over larger areas. However, across all three guilds climate was the strongest predictor of regional endemism, particularly for plants wherein discrete hotspots of endemism were buffered from extreme summer temperatures. Land snail and vertebrate endemism peaked in areas with highest precipitation in the driest times of the year. Hotspots of endemism within each guild poorly predicted endemism in other guilds. We found an overarching signal that climatic gradients play a dominant role in the persistence of endemic taxa in an arid-zone mountain range system. An association with higher rainfall and cooler temperatures indicates that continuing trends toward hotter and drier climates may lead to range contractions in this, and potentially other, arid-zone mountain biotas. Contrasting patterns of endemism across guilds highlight the need to couple comprehensive regional planning for the protection of climate refugia, with targeted management of more localized and habitat specialist taxa.

Habitat as a mediator of mesopredator-driven mammal extinction.

A prevailing view in dryland systems is that mammals are constrained by the scarcity of fertile soils and primary productivity. An alternative view is that predation is a primary driver of mammal assemblages, especially in Australia, where 2 introduced mesopredators-feral cat (Felis catus) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes)-are responsible for severe declines of dryland mammals. We evaluated productivity and predation as drivers of native mammal assemblage structure in dryland Australia. We used new data from 90 sites to examine the divers of extant mammal species richness and reconstructed historic mammal assemblages to determine proportional loss of mammal species across broad habitat types (landform and vegetation communities). Predation was supported as a major driver of extant mammal richness, but its effect was strongly mediated by habitat. Areas that were rugged or had dense grass cover supported more mammal species than the more productive and topographically simple areas. Twelve species in the critical weight range (CWR) (35-5500 g) that is most vulnerable to mesopredator predation were extirpated from the continent's central region, and the severity of loss of species correlated negatively with ruggedness and positively with productivity. Based on previous studies, we expect that habitat mediates predation from red foxes and feral cats because it affects these species' densities and foraging efficiency. Large areas of rugged terrain provided vital refuge for Australian dryland mammals, and we predict such areas will support the persistence of CWR species in the face of ongoing mammal declines elsewhere in Australia.

A synthesis of postfire recovery traits of woody plants in Australian ecosystems.

Postfire resprouting and recruitment from seed are key plant life-history traits that influence population dynamics, community composition and ecosystem function. Species can have one or both of these mechanisms. They confer resilience, which may determine community composition through differential species persistence after fire. To predict ecosystem level responses to changes in climate and fire conditions, we examined the proportions of these plant fire-adaptive traits among woody growth forms of 2880 taxa, in eight fire-prone ecosystems comprising ~87% of Australia's land area. Shrubs comprised 64% of the taxa. More tree (>84%) than shrub (~50%) taxa resprouted. Basal, epicormic and apical resprouting occurred in 71%, 22% and 3% of the taxa, respectively. Most rainforest taxa (91%) were basal resprouters. Many trees (59%) in frequently-burnt eucalypt forest and savanna resprouted epicormically. Although crown fire killed many mallee (62%) and heathland (48%) taxa, fire-cued seeding was common in these systems. Postfire seeding was uncommon in rainforest and in arid Acacia communities that burnt infrequently at low intensity. Resprouting was positively associated with ecosystem productivity, but resprouting type (e.g. basal or epicormic) was associated with local scale fire activity, especially fire frequency. Although rainforest trees can resprout they cannot recruit after intense fires and may decline under future fires. Semi-arid Acacia communities would be susceptible to increasing fire frequencies because they contain few postfire seeders. Ecosystems dominated by obligate seeders (mallee, heath) are also susceptible because predicted shorter inter-fire intervals will prevent seed bank accumulation. Savanna may be resilient to future fires because of the adaptive advantage of epicormic resprouting among the eucalypts. The substantial non-resprouting shrub component of shrublands may decline, but resilient Eucalyptus spp. will continue to dominate under future fire regimes. These patterns of resprouting and postfire seeding provide new insights to ecosystem assembly, resilience and vulnerability to changing fire regimes on this fire-prone continent.

Woody-grass ratios in a grassy arid system are limited by multi-causal interactions of abiotic constraint, competition and fire.

Predicting changes in vegetation structure in fire-prone arid/semi-arid systems is fraught with uncertainty because the limiting factors to coexistence between grasses and woody plants are unknown. We investigated abiotic and biotic factors influencing boundaries and habitat membership in grassland (Triodia or 'spinifex' grassland)-shrubland (Acacia aneura or 'mulga' shrubland) mosaics in semi-arid central Australia. We used a field experiment to test for the effects of: (1) topographic relief (dune/swale habitat), (2) adult neighbour removal, and (3) soil type (sand/clay) on seedling survival in three shrub and two grass species in reciprocal field plantings. Our results showed that invasion of the shrubland (swale) by neighbouring grassland species is negated by abiotic limitations but competition limits shrubland invasion of the grassland (dune). All species from both habitats had significantly reduced survival in the grassland (dune) in the presence of the dominant grass (Triodia) regardless of soil type or shade. Further, the removal of the dominant grass allowed the shrubland dominant (A. aneura) to establish outside its usual range. Seedling growth and sexual maturation of the shrubland dominant (A. aneura) was slow, implying that repeated fire creates an immaturity risk for this non-sprouter in flammable grassland. By contrast, rapid growth and seed set in the grassland shrubs (facultative sprouters) provides a solution to fire exposure prior to reproductive onset. In terms of landscape dynamics, we argue that grass competition and fire effects are important constraints on shrubland patch expansion, but that their relative importance will vary spatially throughout the landscape because of spatial and temporal rainfall variability.