Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.

Wastewater can play a vital role in infectious disease surveillance, especially in underserved communities where it can reduce the equity gap to larger municipalities. However, using wastewater surveillance in a predictive manner remains a challenge. We tested if detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can predict outbreaks in rural communities. Under the CDC National Wastewater Surveillance program, we monitored several rural communities in Idaho (USA). While high daily variations in wastewater viral load made real-time interpretation difficult, a SEIR model could factor out the data noise and forecast the start of the Omicron outbreak in five of the six cities that were sampled soon after SARS-CoV-2 quantities increased in wastewater. For one city, the model could predict an outbreak 11 days before reported clinical cases began to increase. An epidemiological modeling approach can transform how epidemiologists use wastewater data to provide public health guidance on infectious diseases in rural communities.

Evolution of a Plasmid Regulatory Circuit Ameliorates Plasmid Fitness Cost.

Plasmids play a major role in rapid adaptation of bacteria by facilitating horizontal transfer of diverse genes, most notably those conferring antibiotic resistance. While most plasmids that replicate in a broad range of bacteria also persist well in diverse hosts, there are exceptions that are poorly understood. We investigated why a broad-host range plasmid, pBP136, originally found in clinical Bordetella pertussis isolates, quickly became extinct in laboratory Escherichia coli populations. Through experimental evolution we found that inactivation of a previously uncharacterized plasmid gene, upf31 , drastically improved plasmid maintenance in E. coli . This gene inactivation resulted in decreased transcription of the global plasmid regulators ( korA , korB, and korC) and numerous genes in their regulons. It also caused transcriptional changes in many chromosomal genes primarily related to metabolism. In silico analyses suggested that the change in plasmid transcriptome may be initiated by Upf31 interacting with the plasmid regulator KorB. Expression of upf31 in trans negatively affected persistence of pBP136Δ upf31 as well as the closely related archetypal IncP-1ß plasmid R751, which is stable in E. coli and natively encodes a truncated upf31 allele. Our results demonstrate that while the upf31 allele in pBP136 might advantageously modulate gene expression in its original host, B. pertussis , it has harmful effects in E. coli . Thus, evolution of a single plasmid gene can change the range of hosts in which that plasmid persists, due to effects on the regulation of plasmid gene transcription.