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PURPOSE: To develop a mortality risk score for COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and to compare it with other existing scores. MATERIALS AND METHODS: It is a retrospective observational study, including consecutive adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 18 hospitals from nine Brazilian cities, from 09/2021 to 07/2022. Potential predictors were selected based on the literature review. Generalized Additive Models were used to examine outcomes and predictors. LASSO regression was used to derive the mortality score. RESULTS: From 558 patients, median age was 69 years (IQR 58-78), 56.3% were men, 19.7% required mechanical ventilation (MV), and 44.8% died. The final model comprised six variables: age, pO2/FiO2, respiratory function (respiratory rate or if in MV), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and obesity. The AB2CO had an AUROC of 0.781 (95% CI 0.744 to 0.819), good overall performance (Brier score=0.191) and an excellent calibration (slope=1.063, intercept=0.015, p-value=0.834). The model was compared with other scores and displayed better discrimination ability than the majority of them. CONCLUSIONS: The AB2CO score is a fast and easy tool to be used upon ICU admission.
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[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2023.1130218.].
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Objectives: To assess the ABC2-SPH score in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, during intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to compare its performance with other scores (SOFA, SAPS-3, NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, SOARS, CURB-65, modified CHA2DS2-VASc, and a novel severity score). Materials and methods: Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 25 hospitals, located in 17 Brazilian cities, from October 2020 to March 2022, were included. Overall performance of the scores was evaluated using the Brier score. ABC2-SPH was used as the reference score, and comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores were performed by using the Bonferroni method of correction. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Results: ABC2-SPH had an area under the curve of 0.716 (95% CI 0.693-0.738), significantly higher than CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, SOARS, and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. There was no statistically significant difference between ABC2-SPH and SAPS-3, 4C Mortality Score, and the novel severity score. Conclusion: ABC2-SPH was superior to other risk scores, but it still did not demonstrate an excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate the need to develop a new score, for this subset of patients.
