RESUMEN
Nowadays, the ability to make data-driven decisions in public health is of utmost importance. To achieve this, it is necessary for modelers to comprehend the impact of models on the future state of healthcare systems. Compartmental models are a valuable tool for making informed epidemiological decisions, and the proper parameterization of these models is crucial for analyzing epidemiological events. This work evaluated the use of compartmental models in conjunction with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to determine optimal solutions and understand the dynamics of Dengue epidemics. The focus was on calculating and evaluating the rate of case reproduction, R 0 , for the Republic of Panama. Three compartmental models were compared: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Human-Susceptible-Infected Vector (SIR Human-SI Vector, SIR-SI). The models were informed by demographic data and Dengue incidence in the Republic of Panama between 1999 and 2022, and the susceptible population was analyzed. The SIR, SEIR, and SIR-SI models successfully provided R 0 estimates ranging from 1.09 to 1.74. This study provides, to the best of our understanding, the first calculation of R 0 for Dengue outbreaks in the Republic of Panama.
RESUMEN
The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999-2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015-2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM models were 25.76, 108.44 and 26.16, 59.68, which suggest that any of these models can be used to predict new outbreaks. Although, it can be said that there is a limited role of climatic variables in the outputs the models. The value of this work is that it helps understand the behaviour of cases in a tropical setting as is the Metropolitan Region of Panama City, and provides the basis needed for a much needed early alert system for the region.