Inadequate (Ax) Transbronchial Lung Transplant Biopsies-Scope and the Potential Contributing Factors.

BACKGROUND: Transbronchial biopsy is the cornerstone for the evaluation of graft function after lung transplant and a standard of care to diagnose acute cellular rejection. However, the yield from these biopsies is variable, with about 15% to 50% of samples being judged as nondiagnostic, leading to additional procedures. The factors contributing to the nondiagnostic sampling have not been delineated, and the discordance in sample assessment between the bronchoscopist and pathologist has not been quantified. METHODS: A retrospective cohort of patients who had bronchoscopies with biopsies for surveillance and graft assessment at a large-volume transplant center was studied. The occurrence of nondiagnostic alveolar sampling was assessed, and the patient demographics and procedural characteristics were compared with the diagnostic group. RESULTS: We included 128 patients in our study and found the inadequacy rate for alveolar tissue sampling to be 15.5%. The median number of passes made by the bronchoscopist was 9, and the number of samples assessed by the bronchoscopist was 8, with a median of 6 adequate samples identified by the pathologist. The frequency of previous biopsies, history of prior inadequate samples, need for a higher number of pass attempts, presence of airway abnormalities, and the use of general anesthesia increased the odds of inadequate sampling. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with the identified factors may be at risk of inadequate sampling on transbronchial biopsies. The bronchoscopist could consider getting additional samples to avoid a nondiagnostic alveolar sample. Further multicenter studies would help to elucidate other contributing factors.

Circulating metabolic profile in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: data from the IPF-PRO Registry.

BACKGROUND: The circulating metabolome, reflecting underlying cellular processes and disease biology, has not been fully characterized in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We evaluated whether circulating levels of metabolites correlate with the presence of IPF, with the severity of IPF, or with the risk of clinically relevant outcomes among patients with IPF. METHODS: We analyzed enrollment plasma samples from 300 patients with IPF in the IPF-PRO Registry and 100 individuals without known lung disease using a set of targeted metabolomics and clinical analyte modules. Linear regression was used to compare metabolite and clinical analyte levels between patients with IPF and controls and to determine associations between metabolite levels and measures of disease severity in patients with IPF. Unadjusted and adjusted univariable Cox regression models were used to evaluate associations between circulating metabolites and the risk of mortality or disease progression among patients with IPF. RESULTS: Levels of 64 metabolites and 5 clinical analytes were significantly different between patients with IPF and controls. Among analytes with greatest differences were non-esterified fatty acids, multiple long-chain acylcarnitines, and select ceramides, levels of which were higher among patients with IPF versus controls. Levels of the branched-chain amino acids valine and leucine/isoleucine were inversely correlated with measures of disease severity. After adjusting for clinical factors known to influence outcomes, higher levels of the acylcarnitine C:16-OH/C:14-DC were associated with all-cause mortality, lower levels of the acylcarnitine C16:1-OH/C14:1DC were associated with all-cause mortality, respiratory death, and respiratory death or lung transplant, and higher levels of the sphingomyelin d43:2 were associated with the risk of respiratory death or lung transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: IPF has a distinct circulating metabolic profile characterized by increased levels of non-esterified fatty acids, long-chain acylcarnitines, and ceramides, which may suggest a more catabolic environment that enhances lipid mobilization and metabolism. We identified select metabolites that were highly correlated with measures of disease severity or the risk of disease progression and that may be developed further as biomarkers. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; No: NCT01915511; URL: www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov .

Myositis-Associated Autoantibodies in Patients With Juvenile Myositis Are Associated With Refractory Disease and Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Myositis-associated autoantibodies (MAAs) have been associated with overlap myositis, certain disease manifestations such as interstitial lung disease (ILD), and worse prognosis in the idiopathic inflammatory myopathies. MAAs overall remain largely uncharacterized in patients with juvenile-onset myositis. Moreover, it is unknown whether the number of MAAs is associated with disease severity. METHODS: Patients with juvenile myositis in cross-sectional natural history studies who underwent testing for myositis autoantibodies were included. Demographics, myositis autoantibodies, clinical characteristics, medications received, and outcomes of those with and without MAAs were compared. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine whether the number of MAAs detected was associated with severe disease features. RESULTS: Among 551 patients, 36% had an MAA and 13% had more than one MAA. Among those who were MAA positive, there was a higher frequency of overlap myositis (18% vs 5.9%, P < 0.001). MAA positivity was associated with certain clinical features, including Raynaud phenomenon (odds ratio [OR] 2.44, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41-4.28) and ILD (OR 3.43, 95% CI 1.75-6.96), as well as a chronic disease course (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.10-2.72) and mortality (OR 3.76, 95% CI 1.72-8.43). The number of MAAs was also associated with mortality (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.16-2.86). CONCLUSION: MAAs were prevalent in a large cohort of patients with juvenile myositis. ILD, refractory disease, and mortality were associated with MAA positivity. Prospective studies are needed to determine whether early detection of MAAs may lead to improved outcomes for patients with juvenile myositis.

Treatment Effect Estimates From Pilot Trials Are Unreliable.

CONTEXT: The CONSORT guideline defines a pilot trial as a small-scale version of a desired future efficacy trial that is intended to answer the key questions of whether and how a larger study should be done. For example, a pilot trial might evaluate different approaches to data collection or outcome measurement. However, pilot trials are unreliable for assessing treatment efficacy due to the statistical phenomenon called sampling variability. OBJECTIVES: In this tutorial we use computer simulation to demonstrate the influence of sampling variability on efficacy estimates from pilot trials, illustrating why pilot trial designs should not be used to evaluate whether a treatment is promising or not. METHODS: We simulate a 2-arm parallel group trial (N=20 per group) with a survival outcome as an example. Simulations are done under two scenarios: 1) the treatment is efficacious at the level of a hypothetical minimum clinically important difference (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.75); and 2) the treatment is not efficacious (HR=1). RESULTS: As expected, in both simulated scenarios the range of observed results is distributed around the true treatment effect, HR=0.75 or HR=1. Importantly, ∼20% of trials simulated under scenario 1 incorrectly suggest the treatment may be harmful (HR > 1). Under scenario 2, half of the simulated studies incorrectly suggest the treatment is beneficial. CONCLUSION: Treatment effect estimates from pilot trials should not be used to make future development decisions regarding a novel therapy because of the high risk of misleading conclusions.

Lung function trajectories in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease characterised by decline in lung function. We evaluated trajectories of forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusing capacity (DLco) in a cohort of patients with IPF. METHODS: Patients with IPF that was diagnosed or confirmed at the enrolling centre in the previous 6 months were enrolled into the IPF-PRO Registry between June 2014 and October 2018. Patients were followed prospectively, with lung function data collected as part of routine clinical care. Mean trajectories of FVC and DLco % predicted in all patients and in subgroups by characteristics assessed at enrolment were estimated using a joint model that accounted for factors such as disease severity and visit patterns. RESULTS: Of 1002 patients in the registry, 941 had ≥ 1 FVC and/or DLco measurement after enrolment. The median (Q1, Q3) follow-up period was 35.1 (18.9, 47.2) months. Overall, mean estimated declines in FVC and DLco % predicted were 2.8% and 2.9% per year, respectively. There was no evidence that the mean trajectories of FVC or DLco had a non-linear relationship with time at the population level. Patients who were male, white, had a family history of ILD, were using oxygen, or had prior/current use of antifibrotic therapy at enrolment had greater rates of decline in FVC % predicted. Patients who were male or white had greater rates of decline in DLco % predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the IPF-PRO Registry suggest a constant rate of decline in lung function over a prolonged period, supporting the inexorably progressive nature of IPF. A graphical abstract summarising the data in this manuscript is available at: https://www.usscicomms.com/respiratory/IPF-PRORegistry_LungFunctionTrajectories . TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01915511.

Integrative multi-omics analysis reveals novel idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis endotypes associated with disease progression.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by the accumulation of extracellular matrix in the pulmonary interstitium and progressive functional decline. We hypothesized that integration of multi-omics data would identify clinically meaningful molecular endotypes of IPF. METHODS: The IPF-PRO Registry is a prospective registry of patients with IPF. Proteomic and transcriptomic (including total RNA [toRNA] and microRNA [miRNA]) analyses were performed using blood collected at enrollment. Molecular data were integrated using Similarity Network Fusion, followed by unsupervised spectral clustering to identify molecular subtypes. Cox proportional hazards models tested the relationship between these subtypes and progression-free and transplant-free survival. The molecular subtypes were compared to risk groups based on a previously described 52-gene (toRNA expression) signature. Biological characteristics of the molecular subtypes were evaluated via linear regression differential expression and canonical pathways (Ingenuity Pathway Analysis [IPA]) over-representation analyses. RESULTS: Among 232 subjects, two molecular subtypes were identified. Subtype 1 (n = 105, 45.3%) and Subtype 2 (n = 127, 54.7%) had similar distributions of age (70.1 +/- 8.1 vs. 69.3 +/- 7.6 years; p = 0.31) and sex (79.1% vs. 70.1% males, p = 0.16). Subtype 1 had more severe disease based on composite physiologic index (CPI) (55.8 vs. 51.2; p = 0.002). After adjusting for CPI and antifibrotic treatment at enrollment, subtype 1 experienced shorter progression-free survival (HR 1.79, 95% CI 1.28,2.56; p = 0.0008) and similar transplant-free survival (HR 1.30, 95% CI 0.87,1.96; p = 0.20) as subtype 2. There was little agreement in the distribution of subjects to the molecular subtypes and the risk groups based on 52-gene signature (kappa = 0.04, 95% CI= -0.08, 0.17), and the 52-gene signature risk groups were associated with differences in transplant-free but not progression-free survival. Based on heatmaps and differential expression analyses, proteins and miRNAs (but not toRNA) contributed to classification of subjects to the molecular subtypes. The IPA showed enrichment in pulmonary fibrosis-relevant pathways, including mTOR, VEGF, PDGF, and B-cell receptor signaling. CONCLUSIONS: Integration of transcriptomic and proteomic data from blood enabled identification of clinically meaningful molecular endotypes of IPF. If validated, these endotypes could facilitate identification of individuals likely to experience disease progression and enrichment of clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01915511.

Exploration of model misspecification in latent class methods for longitudinal data: Correlation structure matters.

Modeling longitudinal trajectories and identifying latent classes of trajectories is of great interest in biomedical research, and software to identify latent classes of such is readily available for latent class trajectory analysis (LCTA), growth mixture modeling (GMM) and covariance pattern mixture models (CPMM). In biomedical applications, the level of within-person correlation is often non-negligible, which can impact the model choice and interpretation. LCTA does not incorporate this correlation. GMM does so through random effects, while CPMM specifies a model for within-class marginal covariance matrix. Previous work has investigated the impact of constraining covariance structures, both within and across classes, in GMMs-an approach often used to solve convergence problems. Using simulation, we focused specifically on how misspecification of the temporal correlation structure and strength, but correct variances, impacts class enumeration and parameter estimation under LCTA and CPMM. We found (1) even in the presence of weak correlation, LCTA often does not reproduce original classes, (2) CPMM performs well in class enumeration when the correct correlation structure is selected, and (3) regardless of misspecification of the correlation structure, both LCTA and CPMM give unbiased estimates of the class trajectory parameters when the within-individual correlation is weak and the number of classes is correctly specified. However, the bias increases markedly when the correlation is moderate for LCTA and when the incorrect correlation structure is used for CPMM. This work highlights the importance of correlation alone in obtaining appropriate model interpretations and provides insight into model choice.

BAL Fluid Eosinophilia Associates With Chronic Lung Allograft Dysfunction Risk: A Multicenter Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) is the leading cause of death among lung transplant recipients. Eosinophils, effector cells of type 2 immunity, are implicated in the pathobiology of many lung diseases, and prior studies suggest their presence associates with acute rejection or CLAD after lung transplantation. RESEARCH QUESTION: Does histologic allograft injury or respiratory microbiology correlate with the presence of eosinophils in BAL fluid (BALF)? Does early posttransplant BALF eosinophilia associate with future CLAD development, including after adjustment for other known risk factors? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed BALF cell count, microbiology, and biopsy data from a multicenter cohort of 531 lung recipients with 2,592 bronchoscopies over the first posttransplant year. Generalized estimating equation models were used to examine the correlation of allograft histology or BALF microbiology with the presence of BALF eosinophils. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the association between ≥ 1% BALF eosinophils in the first posttransplant year and definite CLAD. Expression of eosinophil-relevant genes was quantified in CLAD and transplant control tissues. RESULTS: The odds of BALF eosinophils being present was significantly higher at the time of acute rejection and nonrejection lung injury histologies and during pulmonary fungal detection. Early posttransplant ≥ 1% BALF eosinophils significantly and independently increased the risk for definite CLAD development (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.04; P = .009). Tissue expression of eotaxins, IL-13-related genes, and the epithelial-derived cytokines IL-33 and thymic stromal lymphoprotein were significantly increased in CLAD. INTERPRETATION: BALF eosinophilia was an independent predictor of future CLAD risk across a multicenter lung recipient cohort. Additionally, type 2 inflammatory signals were induced in established CLAD. These data underscore the need for mechanistic and clinical studies to clarify the role of type 2 pathway-specific interventions in CLAD prevention or treatment.

Early posttransplant reductions in club cell secretory protein associate with future risk for chronic allograft dysfunction in lung recipients: results from a multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) increases morbidity and mortality for lung transplant recipients. Club cell secretory protein (CCSP), produced by airway club cells, is reduced in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) of lung recipients with CLAD. We sought to understand the relationship between BALF CCSP and early posttransplant allograft injury and determine if early posttransplant BALF CCSP reductions indicate later CLAD risk. METHODS: We quantified CCSP and total protein in 1606 BALF samples collected over the first posttransplant year from 392 adult lung recipients at 5 centers. Generalized estimating equation models were used to examine the correlation of allograft histology or infection events with protein-normalized BALF CCSP. We performed multivariable Cox regression to determine the association between a time-dependent binary indicator of normalized BALF CCSP level below the median in the first posttransplant year and development of probable CLAD. RESULTS: Normalized BALF CCSP concentrations were 19% to 48% lower among samples corresponding to histological allograft injury as compared with healthy samples. Patients who experienced any occurrence of a normalized BALF CCSP level below the median over the first posttransplant year had a significant increase in probable CLAD risk independent of other factors previously linked to CLAD (adjusted hazard ratio 1.95; p = 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: We discovered a threshold for reduced BALF CCSP to discriminate future CLAD risk; supporting the utility of BALF CCSP as a tool for early posttransplant risk stratification. Additionally, our finding that low CCSP associates with future CLAD underscores a role for club cell injury in CLAD pathobiology.

Effect of Antifibrotic Therapy on Survival in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.

PURPOSE: Real-world studies have reported reduced mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) treated with antifibrotic therapy; however, the initiation or discontinuation of therapy during these studies may have introduced bias. This study investigated the effect of antifibrotic therapy on mortality and other outcomes in patients with IPF using causal inference methodology. METHODS: Data from a multicenter US registry of patients with IPF were used to assess the effect of antifibrotic therapy (nintedanib or pirfenidone) on death, death or lung transplant, respiratory-related hospitalization, and acute worsening of IPF (defined as any health care encounter deemed due to acute worsening of IPF). This study used the Gran method, which accounts for differences in patient characteristics and for treatment initiations and discontinuations during follow-up. The analysis cohort was limited to patients who started antifibrotic therapy on or after the day of enrollment or had never taken it. FINDINGS: Among the 499 patients analyzed, 352 (70.5%) received antifibrotic therapy. Estimated event rates of death at 1 year were 6.6% (95% CI, 6.1-7.1) for treated patients and 10.2% (95% CI, 9.5-10.9) for control patients. There was a numerical reduction in the risk of death (hazard ratio [HR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.28-1.03; P = 0.060) but numerical increases in risks of respiratory-related hospitalization (HR, 1.88; 95% CI, 0.90-3.92; P = 0.091) and acute worsening of IPF (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.36-8.09; P = 0.496) in treated versus control patients. IMPLICATIONS: Analyses based on causal inference methodology suggest that patients with IPF who receive antifibrotic therapy have improved survival.

A Visual Tool to Help Develop a Statistical Analysis Plan for Randomized Trials in Palliative Care.

Collaboration with a statistician about the design of a statistical analysis plan can be enhanced by illustrating how statisticians conceptualize their task. This conceptualization can be represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG), which illustrates the statistician's approach and also provides an actionable tool to assist in the development of the plan.

Timing of Treatment Outcomes and Risk Factors for Failure of BPAP in Patients Hospitalized for COPD Exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: Patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbation have an increased risk of mortality, particularly among those who fail bi-level positive airway pressure (BPAP) for hypercapnic respiratory failure subsequently requiring invasive mechanical ventilation. Therefore, we sought to investigate the treatment course of BPAP and factors associated with BPAP treatment failure. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using real-world evidence to investigate subjects with COPD who were treated with BPAP during a hospitalization for COPD exacerbation. Treatment outcomes were defined within 7 d from BPAP initiation as either failure, persistent, or success. Failure was defined as death or progression to invasive ventilation. Persistent was defined as receiving BPAP during hospital day 7. Success was defined as liberation from BPAP prior to hospital day 7 and not meeting criteria for failure. Unadjusted multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BPAP treatment outcomes and 17 recipient characteristics. RESULTS: Among the 427 clinical encounters, 78% were successful, 10% were persistent, and 12% experienced failure. The median time to failure and success was 8 h and 16 h, respectively. Increasing age, body mass index (BMI), bicarbonate level, and creatinine level were significantly associated with either BPAP treatment failure, persistent treatment, or both. CONCLUSIONS: The first 8 h following initiation of BPAP is a critical time period where patients are at high risk for life-threatening decompensation. Careful consideration should be given to increasing age, BMI, bicarbonate level, and creatinine level as these factors were associated with BPAP treatment failure or persistent treatment.

Prognostic implications of and clinical risk factors for acute lung injury and organizing pneumonia after lung transplantation: Data from a multicenter prospective cohort study.

We determined prognostic implications of acute lung injury (ALI) and organizing pneumonia (OP), including timing relative to transplantation, in a multicenter lung recipient cohort. We sought to understand clinical risks that contribute to development of ALI/OP. We analyzed prospective, histologic diagnoses of ALI and OP in 4786 lung biopsies from 803 adult lung recipients. Univariable Cox regression was used to evaluate the impact of early (≤90 days) or late (>90 days) posttransplant ALI or OP on risk for chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD) or death/retransplantation. These analyses demonstrated late ALI/OP conferred a two- to threefold increase in the hazards of CLAD or death/retransplantation; there was no association between early ALI/OP and these outcomes. To determine risk factors for late ALI/OP, we used univariable Cox models considering donor/recipient characteristics and posttransplant events as candidate risks. Grade 3 primary graft dysfunction, higher degree of donor/recipient human leukocyte antigen mismatch, bacterial or viral respiratory infection, and an early ALI/OP event were significantly associated with increased late ALI/OP risk. These data from a contemporary, multicenter cohort underscore the prognostic implications of ALI/OP on lung recipient outcomes, clarify the importance of the timing of these events, and identify clinical risks to target for ALI/OP prevention.

Associations of clinical and circulating metabolic biomarkers with low physical fitness and function in adults with chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Many patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) experience physical dysfunction and low overall fitness. It remains unknown what factors drive CLL physical dysfunction. We assessed physical function and metabolic lipoprotein panels in 106 patients with CLL. In univariate analyses of clinical factors, a longer time since diagnosis was associated with a higher likelihood of dysfunctional aerobic fitness (OR = 3.56, 95% CI: 1.37-9.22; p = 0.002) and physical performance (SPPB: OR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.20-3.44; p = 0.004). Having received treatment was associated with a higher likelihood of dysfunctional aerobic fitness (OR = 1.57, 95% CI: 1.02-2.40; p = 0.036), SPPB (OR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.13-3.03; p = 0.011) and grip strength (OR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.10-2.55; p = 0.015). We found that several small HDL particle parameters, higher levels of citrate (OR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.22-3.31; p = 0.030), and lower levels of hemoglobin (OR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.31-0.82; p = 0.030) were associated with a higher likelihood of dysfunctional aerobic fitness. Multivariable least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-penalized regression analyses using variable importance measures (VIM) showed that 7.8-nm HDL particles (VIM = 1.000) and total HDL particle levels (VIM = 1.000) were more informative than clinical measures for the odds of dysfunctional aerobic fitness and 6-min walk functional fitness, respectively, while 10.3-nm HDL particles (VIM = 0.383) were more informative for grip strength. Time since diagnosis (VIM = 0.680) and having received treatment (VIM = 0.490) were more informative than lipoprotein measures for the odds of having dysfunctional SPPB. Taken together, we establish significant relationships between clinical and metabolic factors and physical characteristics that might prompt early use of ancillary support services.

Survival difference between high-risk and low-risk CFTR genotypes after lung transplant.

BACKGROUND: While cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) genotypes are associated with clinical outcomes in cystic fibrosis patients, it is unknown if genotype impacts lung transplant outcomes. We sought to compare lung transplant survival and time to bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) between high-risk, low-risk, and not yet classified CFTR genotypes. METHODS: We used merged data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (2005-2017) and United States Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (2005-2016). Cox Proportional Hazards models compared graft failure after lung transplant and time to BOS among high-risk, low-risk, and not yet classified risk CFTR genotype classes. RESULTS: Among 1,830 cystic fibrosis lung transplant recipients, median survival for those with low-risk, high-risk, and not yet classified genotype was 9.83, 6.25, and 5.75 years, respectively. Adjusted Cox models showed recipients with a low-risk genotype had 39% lower risk of death or re-transplant compared to those with high-risk genotype (adjusted HR 0.61, 95% CI = 0.40, 0.91). A subset of 1,585 lung transplant recipients were included in the BOS subgroup analysis. Adjusted analyses showed no significant difference of developing BOS among high-risk, low-risk, or not yet classified genotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Lung transplant recipients with low-risk CFTR genotype have better survival after transplant compared to recipients with high-risk or not yet classified genotypes. Given these differences, future studies evaluating the mechanism by which CFTR genotype affects post-transplant survival could identify potential targets for intervention.

Plasma CXCL9 and CXCL10 at allograft injury predict chronic lung allograft dysfunction.

Histopathologic lung allograft injuries are putative harbingers for chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD). However, the mechanisms responsible are not well understood. CXCL9 and CXCL10 are potent chemoattractants of mononuclear cells and potential propagators of allograft injury. We hypothesized that these chemokines would be quantifiable in plasma, and would associate with subsequent CLAD development. In this prospective multicenter study, we evaluated 721 plasma samples for CXCL9/CXCL10 levels from 184 participants at the time of transbronchial biopsies during their first-year post-transplantation. We determined the association between plasma chemokines, histopathologic injury, and CLAD risk using Cox proportional hazards models. We also evaluated CXCL9/CXCL10 levels in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fluid and compared plasma to BAL with respect to CLAD risk. Plasma CXCL9/CXCL10 levels were elevated during the injury patterns associated with CLAD, acute rejection, and acute lung injury, with a dose-response relationship between chemokine levels and CLAD risk. Importantly, there were strong interactions between injury and plasma CXCL9/CXCL10, where histopathologic injury associated with CLAD only in the presence of elevated plasma chemokines. We observed similar associations and interactions with BAL CXCL9/CXCL10 levels. Elevated plasma CXCL9/CXCL10 during allograft injury may contribute to CLAD pathogenesis and has potential as a minimally invasive immune monitoring biomarker.

Association of Circulating Proteins with Death or Lung Transplant in Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in the IPF-PRO Registry Cohort.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and ultimately fatal disease with a variable clinical course. Biomarkers that predict patient outcomes are needed. We leveraged data from 300 patients in the multicenter IPF-PRO Registry to determine associations between circulating proteins and the composite outcome of respiratory death or lung transplant. Plasma collected at enrollment was analyzed using aptamer-based proteomics (1305 proteins). Over a median follow-up of 30.4 months, there were 76 respiratory deaths and 26 lung transplants. In unadjusted univariable analyses, 61 proteins were significantly associated with the outcome (hazard ratio > 2 or < 0.5, corrected p ≤ 0.05). In multivariable analyses, a set of 4 clinical measures and 47 unique proteins predicted the probability of respiratory death or lung transplant with an optimism-corrected C-index of 0.76. Our results suggest that select circulating proteins strongly associate with the risk of mortality in patients with IPF and confer information independent of clinical measures.

Proteomic biomarkers of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease: a multicentre cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (ILD) is characterised by parenchymal scar formation, leading to high morbidity and mortality. The ability to predict this phenotype remains elusive. We conducted a proteomic analysis to identify novel plasma biomarkers of progressive fibrosing ILD and developed a proteomic signature to predict this phenotype. METHODS: Relative plasma concentrations for 368 biomarkers were determined with use of a semi-quantitative, targeted proteomic platform in patients with connective tissue disease-associated ILD, chronic hypersensitivity pneumonitis, or unclassifiable ILD who provided research blood draws at the University of California (discovery cohort) and the University of Texas (validation cohort). Univariable logistic regression was used to identify individual biomarkers associated with 1-year ILD progression, defined as death, lung transplant, or 10% or greater relative forced vital capacity (FVC) decline. A proteomic signature of progressive fibrosing ILD was then derived with use of machine learning in the University of California cohort and validated in the University of Texas cohort. FINDINGS: The discovery cohort comprised 385 patients (mean age 63·6 years, 59% female) and the validation cohort comprised 204 patients (mean age 60·7 years, 61% female). 31 biomarkers were associated with progressive fibrosing ILD in the discovery cohort, with 17 maintaining an association in the validation cohort. Validated biomarkers showed a consistent association with progressive fibrosing ILD irrespective of ILD clinical diagnosis. A proteomic signature comprising 12 biomarkers was derived by machine learning and validated in the University of Texas cohort, in which it had a sensitivity of 0·90 and corresponding negative predictive value of 0·91, suggesting that approximately 10% of patients with a low-risk proteomic signature would experience ILD progression in the year after blood draw. Those with a low-risk proteomic signature experienced an FVC change of +85·7 mL (95% CI 6·9 to 164·4) and those with a high-risk signature experienced an FVC change of -227·1 mL (-286·7 to -167·5). A theoretical clinical trial restricted to patients with a high-risk proteomic signature would require 80% fewer patients than one designed without regard to proteomic signature. INTERPRETATION: 17 plasma biomarkers of progressive fibrosing ILD were identified and showed consistent associations across ILD subtypes. A proteomic signature of progressive fibrosing ILD could enrich clinical trial cohorts and avoid the need for antecedent progression when defining progressive fibrosing ILD for clinical trial enrolment. FUNDING: National Heart Lung and Blood Institute.