Global reductions in manual agricultural work capacity due to climate change.

Manual outdoor work is essential in many agricultural systems. Climate change will make such work more stressful in many regions due to heat exposure. The physical work capacity metric (PWC) is a physiologically based approach that estimates an individual's work capacity relative to an environment without any heat stress. We computed PWC under recent past and potential future climate conditions. Daily values were computed from five earth system models for three emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and three time periods: 1991-2010 (recent past), 2041-2060 (mid-century) and 2081-2100 (end-century). Average daily PWC values were aggregated for the entire year, the growing season, and the warmest 90-day period of the year. Under recent past climate conditions, the growing season PWC was below 0.86 (86% of full work capacity) on half the current global cropland. With end-century/SSP5-8.5 thermal conditions this value was reduced to 0.7, with most affected crop-growing regions in Southeast and South Asia, West and Central Africa, and northern South America. Average growing season PWC could falls below 0.4 in some important food production regions such as the Indo-Gangetic plains in Pakistan and India. End-century PWC reductions were substantially greater than mid-century reductions. This paper assesses two potential adaptions-reducing direct solar radiation impacts with shade or working at night and reducing the need for hard physical labor with increased mechanization. Removing the effect of direct solar radiation impacts improved PWC values by 0.05 to 0.10 in the hottest periods and regions. Adding mechanization to increase horsepower (HP) per hectare to levels similar to those in some higher income countries would require a 22% increase in global HP availability with Sub-Saharan Africa needing the most. There may be scope for shifting to less labor-intensive crops or those with labor peaks in cooler periods or shift work to early morning.

Assessing temperature-based adaptation limits to climate change of temperate perennial fruit crops.

Temperate perennial fruit and nut trees play varying roles in world food diversity-providing edible oils and micronutrient, energy, and protein dense foods. In addition, perennials reuse significant amounts of biomass each year providing a unique resilience. But they also have a unique sensitivity to seasonal temperatures, requiring a period of dormancy for successful growing season production. This paper takes a global view of five temperate tree fruit crops-apples, cherries, almonds, olives, and grapes-and assesses the effects of future temperature changes on thermal suitability. It uses climate data from five earth system models for two CMIP6 climate scenarios and temperature-related indices of stress to indicate potential future areas where crops cannot be grown and highlight potential new suitable regions. The loss of currently suitable areas and new additions in new locations varies by scenario. In the southern hemisphere (SH), end-century (2081-2100) suitable areas under the SSP 5-8.5 scenario decline by more than 40% compared to a recent historical period (1991-2010). In the northern hemisphere (NH) suitability increases by 20% to almost 60%. With SSP1-2.6, however, the changes are much smaller with SH area declining by about 25% and NH increasing by about 10%. The results suggest substantial restructuring of global production for these crops. Essentially, climate change shifts temperature-suitable locations toward higher latitudes. In the SH, most of the historically suitable areas were already at the southern end of the landmass limiting opportunities for adaptation. If breeding efforts can bring chilling requirements for the major cultivars closer to that currently seen in some cultivars, suitable areas at the end of the century are greater, but higher summer temperatures offset the extent. The high value of fruit crops provides adaptation opportunities such as cultivar selection, canopy cooling using sprinklers, shade netting, and precision irrigation.

Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Heat stress in animals is one of the major climate change impacts on domesticated livestock raised in both intensive and extensive production systems. At temperatures higher than an animal's thermoneutral zone, heat stress can affect liveweight gain, milk yield, and fertility. Animal welfare may also be negatively affected by heat stress even in the absence of effects on productivity, at least in the short term. METHODS: We estimated the comparative statics change in the value of cattle milk and meat production from heat stress-induced losses at the global level, using climate scenario outputs for the middle (2045) and end of the century (2085). The loss estimates are based on bioenergetic equations that relate changes in dry matter intake (DMI) to both cold and hot, humid weather. DMI changes were estimated using CMIP6 climate data and linked to a global dataset containing information on livestock production systems, animal numbers, and region-specific and system-specific animal diets. Changes in DMI were converted to changes in milk and meat production and valued using early 20th century world prices (ie, constant 2005 US dollars). FINDINGS: For a high greenhouse-gas emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), production losses from heat stress were estimated to amount to $39·94 billion (95% CI 34·39-45·49 billion) per year by the end of the century, or 9·8% of the value of production of meat and milk from cattle in 2005. For a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), the value of production losses was $14·89 billion (12·62-16·95 billion) per year, or 3·7% of 2005 value. In both scenarios, losses in most tropical regions were projected to be far greater than they were in temperate regions. INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the potential magnitude and extent of the adaptation efforts that will be necessary to combat the effects of increasing heat stress on cattle production during this century if food security challenges are to be minimised. Adaptations include switching to more heat-tolerant breeds and provision of shade, ventilation, and cooling systems. FUNDING: CGIAR Trust Fund and bilateral donors.

A global dataset for the projected impacts of climate change on four major crops.

Reliable estimates of the impacts of climate change on crop production are critical for assessing the sustainability of food systems. Global, regional, and site-specific crop simulation studies have been conducted for nearly four decades, representing valuable sources of information for climate change impact assessments. However, the wealth of data produced by these studies has not been made publicly available. Here, we develop a global dataset by consolidating previously published meta-analyses and data collected through a new literature search covering recent crop simulations. The new global dataset builds on 8703 simulations from 202 studies published between 1984 and 2020. It contains projected yields of four major crops (maize, rice, soybean, and wheat) in 91 countries under major emission scenarios for the 21st century, with and without adaptation measures, along with geographical coordinates, current temperature and precipitation levels, projected temperature and precipitation changes. This dataset provides a solid basis for a quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change on crop production and will facilitate the rapidly developing data-driven machine learning applications.

Three-dimensional evaluation of the transfer accuracy of a bracket jig fabricated using computer-aided design and manufacturing to the anterior dentition: An in vitro study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of a one-piece bracket jig system fabricated using computer-aided design and manufacturing (CAD/CAM) by employing three-dimensional (3D) digital superimposition. METHODS: This in vitro study included 226 anterior teeth selected from 20 patients undergoing orthodontic treatment. Bracket position errors from each of the 40 arches were analyzed quantitatively via 3D digital superimposition (best-fit algorithm) of the virtual bracket and actual bracket after indirect bonding, after accounting for possible variables that may affect accuracy, such as crowding and presence of the resin base. RESULTS: The device could transfer the bracket accurately to the desired position of the patient's dentition within a clinically acceptable range of ± 0.05 mm and 2.0° for linear and angular measurements, respectively. The average linear measurements ranged from 0.029 to 0.101 mm. Among the angular measurements, rotation values showed the least deviation and ranged from 0.396° to 0.623°. Directional bias was pronounced in the vertical direction, and many brackets were bonded toward the occlusal surface. However, no statistical difference was found for the three angular measurement values (torque, angulation, and rotation) in any of the groups classified according to crowding. When the teeth were moderately crowded, the mesio-distal, bucco-lingual, and rotation measurement values were affected by the presence of the resin base. CONCLUSIONS: The characteristics of the CAD/CAM one-piece jig system were demonstrated according to the influencing factors, and the transfer accuracy was verified to be within a clinically acceptable level for the indirect bracket bonding of anterior teeth.

Geometry of anchoring miniscrew in the lateral palate that support a tissue bone borne maxillary expander affects neighboring root damage.

Anchoring miniscrews used for a tissue bone borne maxillary expander (C-expander) can fail if they contact tooth roots or perforate the maxillary sinus. Cone beam computed tomography images were reviewed retrospectively to evaluate the geometric factors of miniscrew placement in the palate that contribute to root proximity (RP) and sinus perforation (SP), and to investigate the differences of miniscrew placement depth (PD) and placement angle (PA) among the groups in each variable from 340 anchoring miniscrews on 70 patients whose C-expanders showed sufficient stability after palatal expansion for orthodontic treatment. Two types of miniscrews were used: a self-tapping miniscrew with 1.8 mm-in-diameter, and a self-drilling miniscrew with 1.6 mm-in-diameter. While the self-tapping larger diameter miniscrew influenced root proximity significantly, the screw location and PD affected the rate of sinus perforation. PA was significantly different between the right and left sides of the palate. The results of this study confirmed that root proximity and sinus perforation of anchoring miniscrews in a tissue bone borne palatal expander occurred due to certain risk factors, even when the palates were expanded successfully. Knowledge of these factors can help the clinician place miniscrews with less risk of root proximity or sinus perforation.

Increases in extreme heat stress in domesticated livestock species during the twenty-first century.

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to have major impacts on domesticated livestock, including increased heat stress in animals in both intensive and extensive livestock systems. We estimate the changes in the number of extreme heat stress days per year for animals raised outdoors that can be expected in the major domesticated animal species (cattle, sheep, goats, poultry, and pigs) across the globe during this century. We used the temperature humidity index as a proxy for heat stress, calculated using temperature and relative humidity data collated from an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model output for mid and end century. We estimate changes in the proportions of different livestock species that may be at increased risk of extreme heat stress under two contrasting greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results are discussed in relation to changes in the suitability of different climate conditions for domesticated livestock during the current century. We find that by end century, extreme heat stress risk is projected to increase for all livestock species in many parts of the tropics and some of the temperate zones, and to become climatically more widespread, compared to 2000. Although adaptation options exist for both intensive and extensive livestock production systems, the increasing pervasiveness of extreme heat stress risk in the future will seriously challenge the viability of outdoor livestock keeping, particularly in the lower latitudes in lower and middle-income countries where the costs of adaptation may be challenging to address.

Quantitative cone-beam computed tomography evaluation of hard and soft tissue thicknesses in the midpalatal suture region to facilitate orthodontic mini-implant placement.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the most favorable sites that optimize the initial stability and survival rate of orthodontic mini-implants, this study measured hard and soft tissue thicknesses in the median and paramedian regions of the palate using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) and determined possible sexand age-related differences in these thicknesses. METHODS: The study sample comprised CBCT images of 189 healthy subjects. The sample was divided into four groups according to age. A grid area was set for the measurement of hard and soft tissue thicknesses in the palate. Vertical lines were marked at intervals of 0, 1.5, and 3.0 mm lateral to the midpalatal suture, while horizontal lines were marked at 2-mm intervals up to 24 mm from the posterior margin of the incisive foramen. Measurements were made at 65 points of intersection between the horizontal and vertical lines. RESULTS: The palatal hard tissue thickness decreased from the anterior to the posterior region, with a decrease in the medial-to-lateral direction in the middle and posterior regions. While the soft tissue was rather thick around the lateral aspects of the palatal arch, it formed a constant layer that was only 1-2-mm thick throughout the palate. Statistically significant differences were observed according to sex and age. CONCLUSIONS: The anterolateral palate as well as the midpalatal suture seem to be the most favorable sites for insertion of orthodontic mini-implants. The thickness of the palate differed by age and sex; these differences should be considered while planning the placement of orthodontic mini-implants.

Effect of Different Head Hole Position on the Rotational Resistance and Stability of Orthodontic Miniscrews: A Three-Dimensional Finite Element Study.

The orthodontic miniscrew is driven into bone in a clockwise direction. Counter-clockwise rotational force applied to the implanted miniscrew can degrade the stability. The purpose of this three-dimensional finite element study was to figure out the effect of shifting the miniscrew head hole position from the long axis. Two miniscrew models were developed, one with the head hole at the long axis and the other with an eccentric hole position. One degree of counter-clockwise rotation was applied to both groups, and the maximum Von-Mises stress and moment was measured under various wire insertion angles from -60° to +60°. All Von-Mises stress and moments increased with an increase in rotational angle or wire insertion angle. The increasing slope of moment in the eccentric hole group was significantly higher than that in the centric hole group. Although the maximum Von-Mises stress was higher in the eccentric hole group, the distribution of stress was not very different from the centric hole group. As the positive wire insertion angles generated a higher moment under a counter-clockwise rotational force, it is recommended to place the head hole considering the implanting direction of the miniscrew. Clinically, multidirectional and higher forces can be applied to the miniscrew with an eccentric head hole position.

Modeling impacts of faster productivity growth to inform the CGIAR initiative on Crops to End Hunger.

In 2017-2018, a group of international development funding agencies launched the Crops to End Hunger initiative to modernize public plant breeding in lower-income countries. To inform that initiative, USAID asked the International Food Policy Research Institute and the United States Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service to estimate the impacts of faster productivity growth for 20 food crops on income and other indicators in 106 countries in developing regions in 2030. We first estimated the value of production in 2015 for each crop using data from FAO. We then used the IMPACT and GLOBE economic models to estimate changes in the value of production and changes in economy-wide income under scenarios of faster crop productivity growth, assuming that increased investment will raise annual rates of yield growth by 25% above baseline growth rates over the period 2015-2030. We found that faster productivity growth in rice, wheat and maize increased economy-wide income in the selected countries in 2030 by 59 billion USD, 27 billion USD and 21 billion USD respectively, followed by banana and yams with increases of 9 billion USD each. While these amounts represent small shares of total GDP, they are 2-15 times current public R&D spending on food crops in developing countries. Income increased most in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Faster productivity growth in rice and wheat reduced the population at risk of hunger by 11 million people and 6 million people respectively, followed by plantain and cassava with reductions of about 2 million people each. Changes in adequacy ratios were relatively large for carbohydrates (already in surplus) and relatively small for micronutrients. In general, we found that impacts of faster productivity growth vary widely across crops, regions and outcome indicators, highlighting the importance of identifying the potentially diverse objectives of different decision makers and recognizing possible tradeoffs between objectives.

Effectiveness of 2D radiographs in detecting CBCT-based incidental findings in orthodontic patients.

Some craniofacial diseases or anatomical variations are found in radiographic images taken for other purposes. These incidental findings (IFs) can be detected in orthodontic patients, as various radiographs are required for orthodontic diagnosis. The radiographic data of 1020-orthodontic patients were interpreted to evaluate the rates of IFs in three-dimensional (3D) cone-beam-computed tomography (CBCT) with a large field of view (FOV) and investigate the effectiveness and accuracy of two-dimensional (2D) radiographs for detecting IFs compared to CBCT. Prevalence and accuracy in five areas was measured for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). The accuracies of various 2D-radiograph were compared through a proportion test. A total of 709-cases (69.5%) of 1020-subjects showed one or more IFs in CBCT images. Nasal cavity was the most affected area. Based on the CBCT images as a gold standard, different accuracies of various 2D-radiographs were observed in each area of the findings. The highest accuracy was confirmed in soft tissue calcifications with comprehensive radiographs. For detecting nasal septum deviations, postero-anterior cephalograms were the most accurate 2D radiograph. In cases the IFs were not determined because of its ambiguity in 2D radiographs, considering them as an absence of findings increased the accuracy.

Detection of Dental Caries and Cracks with Quantitative Light-Induced Fluorescence in Comparison to Radiographic and Visual Examination: A Retrospective Case Study.

The aim of this study was to present an optimal diagnostic protocol by comparing and analyzing a conventional examination and the quantitative light-induced fluorescence (QLF) technique. Selected were 297 teeth of 153 patients to take QLF images and bitewing radiographs. Occlusal dental caries, proximal dental caries and cracks were evaluated and scored using QLF, X-ray and/or visual criteria. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic analysis were calculated. Two fluorescence parameters (|ΔFmax| and ΔRmax) were utilized to evaluate the fluorescence pattern according to the severity of lesions based on QLF or X-ray criteria. QLF showed higher scores for detecting occlusal dental caries and cracks than the conventional method. ΔRmax increased more clearly than ΔFmax did with occlusal dental caries. The |ΔFmax| values of occlusal dental caries, proximal dental caries and cracks showed good AUC levels (0.84, 0.81 and 0.83, respectively). The ΔRmax of occlusal dental caries showed the highest AUC (0.91) and the ΔRmax of proximal dental caries showed a fail level (0.59) compared to bitewing radiographs. The QLF image could visualize and estimate the degree of occlusal dental caries or cracks. Consequently, the QLF technique may be an adjunct tool to conventional methods for the detection of occlusal caries and peripheral cracks.

Effect of Different Surface Designs on the Rotational Resistance and Stability of Orthodontic Miniscrews: A Three-Dimensional Finite Element Study.

High orthodontic forces and various directions of applied forces can be associated with loosening of the screw anchorage in the bone. Screw designs have been modified to increase the stability of the miniscrews. This research evaluates the influence of three-designs on the stability of orthodontic miniscrews. A conventionally cylinder-type miniscrew design (Bio-Action screw, Jin-Biomed co., Bucheon, Korea) was set as a control, and three conditions were studied based on modifications of this control design. Condition-1 has narrowed threads in the upper part of the screw; Condition-2 has a notch at the middle part; and Condition-3 has the combination of Condition-1 and Condition-2. The moment required to unwind the miniscrew to five degrees is tested, and the moment generated at the cortical bone and the trabecular bone were calculated with finite element analysis. Compared to the control, all three conditions showed a higher moment required to unwind the miniscrew and a higher moment generated at the cortical bone. At the trabecular bone, condition-2 and -3 showed higher moment than the control, and condition-1 showed similar moment to the control. Condition-3 required a higher overall moment to unwind the miniscrew. These findings validate the design modifications used to increase the rotational resistance.

Evaluation of a multi-stage convolutional neural network-based fully automated landmark identification system using cone-beam computed tomographysynthesized posteroanterior cephalometric images.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of a multi-stage convolutional neural network (CNN) model-based automated identification system for posteroanterior (PA) cephalometric landmarks. METHODS: The multi-stage CNN model was implemented with a personal computer. A total of 430 PA-cephalograms synthesized from cone-beam computed tomography scans (CBCT-PA) were selected as samples. Twenty-three landmarks used for Tweemac analysis were manually identified on all CBCT-PA images by a single examiner. Intra-examiner reproducibility was confirmed by repeating the identification on 85 randomly selected images, which were subsequently set as test data, with a two-week interval before training. For initial learning stage of the multi-stage CNN model, the data from 345 of 430 CBCT-PA images were used, after which the multi-stage CNN model was tested with previous 85 images. The first manual identification on these 85 images was set as a truth ground. The mean radial error (MRE) and successful detection rate (SDR) were calculated to evaluate the errors in manual identification and artificial intelligence (AI) prediction. RESULTS: The AI showed an average MRE of 2.23 ± 2.02 mm with an SDR of 60.88% for errors of 2 mm or lower. However, in a comparison of the repetitive task, the AI predicted landmarks at the same position, while the MRE for the repeated manual identification was 1.31 ± 0.94 mm. CONCLUSIONS: Automated identification for CBCT-synthesized PA cephalometric landmarks did not sufficiently achieve the clinically favorable error range of less than 2 mm. However, AI landmark identification on PA cephalograms showed better consistency than manual identification.

Evaluation of interradicular space, soft tissue, and hard tissue of the posterior palatal alveolar process for orthodontic mini-implant, using cone-beam computed tomography.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate the anatomy of the posterior palatal alveolar process, which is often used for placement of the orthodontic mini-implant (OMI), and to suggest simple guidelines for safe placement of OMI. METHODS: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans of 60 patients (30 men, 30 women; age range, 18-39 years; average age, 25.8 years) was used to measure the palatal interradicular distance, the palatal bone thickness, and the palatal soft-tissue thickness. Measurements were performed on the area from the maxillary canine to the maxillary second molar based on the vertical distance apical from the cementoenamel junction. The CBCT data were analyzed by Bonferroni correction for multiple testing and the multivariable mixed linear model. RESULTS: The palatal interradicular distance was the widest between the second premolar and the first molar and the narrowest between the first and second premolars. The palatal bone thickness at interdental sites was the thickest between the first and second premolars and the thinnest between the first and second molars. The interdental palatal soft-tissue thickness from the canine to the second premolar was thicker than any other area. There were minor measurement differences between genders and positive correlations between vertical distance from the cementoenamel junction plane and all of the parameters. CONCLUSION: In this study, we evaluated the anatomy of the posterior palatal area using CBCT scans of adult patients. The data will provide guidelines to the clinicians before OMI placement in the posterior palatal alveolar process.

Treatment outcomes of various force applications in growing patients with skeletal Class III malocclusion.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate skeletal, dentoalveolar, and soft tissue changes between intraoral light force application and extraoral heavy force application in growing patients with skeletal Class III malocclusion. MATERIALS AND: Methods: A retrospective study was conducted with pretreatment and posttreatment lateral cephalometric data from 50 subjects with skeletal Class III malocclusion. In the first group (15 boys, 10 girls; 8.67 ± 2.13 years old), each subject wore a biocreative horseshoe appliance (CHS) with two Class III elastics that exerted a force of 200 g. In the second group (13 boys, 12 girls; 8.96 ± 1.82 years old), each subject wore a Petit-type facemask and a lingual arch with hooks fixed to the maxillary arch with a total force of 700 g. Both groups of patients were instructed to wear the appliance approximately 14 hours a day, and 22 linear measurements and 8 angular measurements were evaluated. Changes of measurements from each group were compared by paired t-tests, considering a 5% significance level. RESULTS: Forward growth of the maxilla, improvement of the maxilla-mandible relationship, and upper incisor flaring were achieved in both groups without any statistically significant difference between them. Lateral cephalometric analysis also showed that U1 exposure, IMPA (Angle between mandibular plane and mandibular incisor axis), FMIA (Angle between FH plan and mandibular incisor axis), and L1-APog (Angle formed by the intersection of tooth axis of lower incisor and A-Pog line, Distance from lower incisor edge to A-Pog line) showed statistically significant differences. Lower incisors were inclined lingually in the CHS group. CONCLUSIONS: During treatment of skeletal Class III malocclusion, the CHS with light Class III intermaxillary elastics therapy exhibits similar orthopedic changes to the maxillary complex and more dental changes to the lower anterior teeth compared with facemask therapy.