Extreme thermal fluctuations from climate change unexpectedly accelerate demographic collapse of vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

Global climate is warming rapidly, threatening vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) by disrupting sex ratios and other traits. Less understood are the effects of increased thermal fluctuations predicted to accompany climate change. Greater fluctuations could accelerate feminization of species that produce females under warmer conditions (further endangering TSD animals), or counter it (reducing extinction risk). Here we use novel experiments exposing eggs of Painted Turtles (Chrysemys picta) to replicated profiles recorded in field nests plus mathematically-modified profiles of similar shape but wider oscillations, and develop a new mathematical model for analysis. We show that broadening fluctuations around naturally male-producing (cooler) profiles feminizes developing embryos, whereas embryos from warmer profiles remain female or die. This occurs presumably because wider oscillations around cooler profiles expose embryos to very low temperatures that inhibit development, and to feminizing temperatures where most embryogenesis accrues. Likewise, embryos incubated under broader fluctuations around warmer profiles experience mostly feminizing temperatures, some dangerously high (which increase mortality), and fewer colder values that are insufficient to induce male development. Therefore, as thermal fluctuations escalate with global warming, the feminization of TSD turtle populations could accelerate, facilitating extinction by demographic collapse. Aggressive global CO2 mitigation scenarios (RCP2.6) could prevent these risks, while intermediate actions (RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios) yield moderate feminization, highlighting the peril that insufficient reductions of greenhouse gas emissions pose for TSD taxa. If our findings are generalizable, TSD squamates, tuatara, and crocodilians that produce males at warmer temperatures could suffer accelerated masculinization, underscoring the broad taxonomic threats of climate change.

Thermal Response of Epigenetic Genes Informs Turtle Sex Determination with and without Sex Chromosomes.

Vertebrate sexual fate can be established by environmental cues (e.g., temperature-dependent sex determination, TSD) or by genetic content (genotypic sex determination, GSD). While methylation is implicated in TSD, the influence of broader epigenetic processes in sexual development remains obscure. Here, we investigated for the first time the embryonic gonadal expression of the genome-wide epigenetic machinery in turtles, including genes and noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs) involved in DNA/histone acetylation, methylation, ubiquitination, phosphorylation, and RNAi. This machinery was active and differentially thermosensitive in TSD versus GSD (ZZ/ZW) turtles. Methylation and histone acetylation genes responded the strongest. The results suggest these working hypotheses: (i) TSD might be mediated by epigenetically controlled hormonal pathways (via acetylation, methylation, and ncRNAs), or by (ii) hormonally controlled epigenetic processes, and (iii) key epigenetic events prior to the canonical thermosensitive period may explain differences between TSD and GSD. Novel epigenetic candidate regulators other than methylation were identified, including previously unknown ncRNAs that could potentially mediate gonadogenesis. These findings illuminate the molecular ecology of reptilian sex determination and permitted hypothesis building to help guide future functional studies on the epigenetic transduction of external cues in TSD versus GSD systems.

Genetic demography at the leading edge of the distribution of a rabies virus vector.

The common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, ranges from South America into northern Mexico in North America. This sanguivorous species of bat feeds primarily on medium to large-sized mammals and is known to rely on livestock as primary prey. Each year, there are hotspot areas of D. rotundus-specific rabies virus outbreaks that lead to the deaths of livestock and economic losses. Based on incidental captures in our study area, which is an area of high cattle mortality from D. rotundus transmitted rabies, it appears that D. rotundus are being caught regularly in areas and elevations where they previously were thought to be uncommon. Our goal was to investigate demographic processes and genetic diversity at the north eastern edge of the range of D. rotundus in Mexico. We generated control region sequences (441 bp) and 12-locus microsatellite genotypes for 602 individuals of D. rotundus. These data were analyzed using network analyses, Bayesian clustering approaches, and standard population genetic statistical analyses. Our results demonstrate panmixia across our sampling area with low genetic diversity, low population differentiation, loss of intermediate frequency alleles at microsatellite loci, and very low mtDNA haplotype diversity with all haplotypes being very closely related. Our study also revealed strong signals of population expansion. These results follow predictions from the leading-edge model of expanding populations and supports conclusions from another study that climate change may allow this species to find suitable habitat within the U.S. border.

Genetic restoration in the eastern collared lizard under prescribed woodland burning.

Eastern collared lizards of the Ozarks live in glades--open, rocky habitats embedded in a woodland matrix. Past fire suppression had made the woodlands a barrier to dispersal, leading to habitat destruction, fragmentation and local extinction. Reintroduced populations of lizards were subjected to 10 years of habitat fragmentation under continued fire suppression followed by twelve years of landscape restoration with prescribed burns. Prior to prescribed burning, genetic diversity decreased within glades and differentiation increased among glades. With woodland burning, genetic diversity within glades first decreased during an expanding colonization phase, but then increased as a dynamically stable metapopulation was established. Population differentiation among glades also stabilized in the metapopulation under weak isolation-by-distance. This study is one of the first to examine the genetic changes in a species of conservation concern throughout all the stages of decline and recovery and shows the importance of landscape-level restoration for maintaining the genetic integrity of populations. This study also demonstrates how mark-recapture and genetic data together can yield detailed insight into metapopulation dynamics that would be impossible from just one type of data alone.

Transcriptional evolution underlying vertebrate sexual development.

Explaining the diversity of vertebrate sex-determining mechanisms ranging from genotypic (GSD) to temperature-dependent (TSD) remains a developmental and evolutionary conundrum. Using a phylogenetic framework, we explore the transcriptional evolution during gonadogenesis of several genes involved in sexual development, combining novel data from Chrysemys picta turtles (TSD) and published data from other TSD and GSD vertebrates. Our novel C. picta dataset underscores Sf1 and Wt1 as potential activators of the thermosensitive period and uncovered the first evidence of Dax1 involvement in male development in a TSD vertebrate. Contrasting transcriptional profiles revealed male-biased Wt1 expression in fish while monomorphic expression is found in tetrapods but absent in turtles. Sf1 expression appears highly labile with transitions among testicular, ovarian, and non-sex-specific gonadal formation patterns among and within lineages. Dax1's dual role in ovarian and testicular formation is found in fish and mammals but is dosage-sensitive exclusively in eutherian mammals due to its X-linkage in this group. Contrastingly, Sox9 male-biased and Aromatase female-biased expression appear ancestral and virtually conserved throughout vertebrates despite significant heterochronic changes in expression as other elements likely replaced their function in early gonadogenesis. Finally, research avenues are highlighted to further study the evolution of the regulatory network of sexual development.

The transition from isolated patches to a metapopulation in the eastern collared lizard in response to prescribed fires.

Habitat fragmentation often arises from human-induced alterations to the matrix that reduce or eliminate dispersal between habitat patches. Elimination of dispersal increases local extinction and decreases recolonization. These phenomena were observed in the eastern collared lizard (Crotaphytus collaris collaris), which lives in the mid-continental highland region of the Ozarks (Missouri, USA) on glades: habitats of exposed bedrock that form desert-like habitats imbedded in a woodland matrix. With the onset of woodland fire suppression, glade habitats degenerated and the woodland matrix was altered to create a strong barrier to dispersal. By 1980, lizard populations in the Ozarks were rapidly going extinct. In response to this decline, some glades were restored by clearing and burning. Starting in 1984, collared lizard populations were translocated onto these restored habitats. The translocated populations persisted but did not colonize nearby glades or disperse among one another. In 1994 prescribed woodland fires were initiated, which unleashed much dispersal and colonizing behavior. Dispersal was highly nonrandom by both intrinsic variables (age, gender) and extrinsic variables (overall demography, glade population sizes, glade areas, landscape features), resulting in different classes of lizards being dominant in creating demographic cohesiveness among glades, colonizing new glades on a mountain, and colonizing new mountain systems. A dramatic transition was documented from isolated fragments, to a nonequilibrium colonizing metapopulation, and finally to a stable metapopulation. This transition is characterized by the convergence of rates of extinction and recolonization and a major alteration of dispersal probabilities and pattern in going from the nonequilibrium to stable metapopulation states.

The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.