Will climate change affect the survival of tropical and subtropical species? Predictions based on Bulwer's petrel populations in the NE Atlantic Ocean.

Climate change has repeatedly been shown to impact the demography and survival of marine top predators. However, most evidence comes from single populations of widely distributed species, limited mainly to polar and subpolar environments. Here, we aimed to evaluate the influence of environmental conditions on the survival of a tropical and migratory seabird over the course of its annual cycle. We used capture-mark-recapture data from three populations of Bulwer's petrel (Bulweria bulwerii) spread across the NE Atlantic Ocean, from the Azores, Canary, and Cabo Verde Islands (including temperate to tropical zones). We also inferred how the survival of this seabird might be affected under different climatic scenarios, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Among the environmental variables whose effect we evaluated (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Southern Oscillation Index, Sea Surface Temperature [SST] and wind speed), SST estimated for the breeding area and season was the variable with the greatest influence on adult survival. Negative effects of SST increase emerged across the three populations, most likely through indirect trophic web interactions. Unfortunately, our study also shows that the survival of Bulwer's petrel will be profoundly affected by the different scenarios of climate change, even with the most optimistic trajectory involving the lowest greenhouse gas emission. Furthermore, for the first time, our study predicts stronger impacts of climate change on tropical populations than on subtropical and temperate ones. This result highlights the devastating effect that climate change may also have on tropical areas, and the importance of considering multi-population approaches when evaluating its impacts which may differ across species distributions.

Does sexual segregation occur during the nonbreeding period? A comparative analysis in spatial and feeding ecology of three Calonectris shearwaters.

Sexual segregation (SS) is widespread among animal taxa, with males and females segregated in distribution, behavior, or feeding ecology but so far, most studies on birds have focused on the breeding period. Outside this period, the relevance of segregation and the potential drivers of its persistence remain elusive, especially in the marine environment, where animals can disperse over vast areas and are not easily observed. We evaluated the degree of SS in spatio-temporal distribution and phenology, at-sea behavior, and feeding ecology during the nonbreeding period among three closely related shearwaters: Scopoli's, Cory's, and Cape Verde shearwaters (Calonectris diomedea, C. borealis, and C. edwardsii, respectively). We tracked 179 birds (92 males and 87 females) from 2008 to 2013 using geolocation-immersion loggers and collected the 13th secondary remige (molted in winter) for stable isotope analyses as a proxy of trophic level and diet. The global nonbreeding distribution did not differ between sexes for the three species, but one specific nonbreeding area was visited only by males. Cory's shearwater males remained in areas closer to the colony in a larger proportion compared to females and returned earlier to the colony, probably to defend their nests. Males presented a slightly lower nocturnal flying activity and slightly (but consistently) higher isotopic values of δ13C and δ15N compared to females. These differences suggest subtle sexual differences in diet and a slightly higher trophic level in males, but the extent to which sexual dimorphism in bill size can determine them remains unclear. Our study showed that SS in ecological niche in seabirds can persist year-round consistently but at a different extent when comparing the breeding and nonbreeding periods. Based on our findings, we propose that SS in these seabird species might have its origin in an ecological specialization derived from the different roles of males and females during reproduction, rather than from social dominance during the nonbreeding period.

Reduced population size does not affect the mating strategy of a vulnerable and endemic seabird.

Bottleneck episodes may occur in small and isolated animal populations, which may result in decreased genetic diversity and increased inbreeding, but also in mating strategy adjustment. This was evaluated in the vulnerable and socially monogamous Monteiro's Storm-petrel Hydrobates monteiroi, a seabird endemic to the Azores archipelago which has suffered a dramatic population decline since the XVth century. To do this, we conducted a genetic study (18 microsatellite markers) in the population from Praia islet, which has been monitored over 16 years. We found no evidence that a genetic bottleneck was associated with this demographic decline. Monteiro's Storm-petrels paired randomly with respect to genetic relatedness and body measurements. Pair fecundity was unrelated to genetic relatedness between partners. We detected only two cases of extra-pair parentage associated with an extra-pair copulation (out of 71 offspring). Unsuccessful pairs were most likely to divorce the next year, but genetic relatedness between pair mates and pair breeding experience did not influence divorce. Divorce enabled individuals to improve their reproductive performances after re-mating only when the new partner was experienced. Re-pairing with an experienced partner occurred more frequently when divorcees changed nest than when they retained their nest. This study shows that even in strongly reduced populations, genetic diversity can be maintained, inbreeding does not necessarily occur, and random pairing is not risky in terms of pair lifetime reproductive success. Given, however, that we found no clear phenotypic mate choice criteria, the part played by non-morphological traits should be assessed more accurately in order to better understand seabird mating strategies.