Precision Phenotyping of Dilated Cardiomyopathy Using Multidimensional Data.

BACKGROUND: Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a final common manifestation of heterogenous etiologies. Adverse outcomes highlight the need for disease stratification beyond ejection fraction. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to identify novel, reproducible subphenotypes of DCM using multiparametric data for improved patient stratification. METHODS: Longitudinal, observational UK-derivation (n = 426; median age 54 years; 67% men) and Dutch-validation (n = 239; median age 56 years; 64% men) cohorts of DCM patients (enrolled 2009-2016) with clinical, genetic, cardiovascular magnetic resonance, and proteomic assessments. Machine learning with profile regression identified novel disease subtypes. Penalized multinomial logistic regression was used for validation. Nested Cox models compared novel groupings to conventional risk measures. Primary composite outcome was cardiovascular death, heart failure, or arrhythmia events (median follow-up 4 years). RESULTS: In total, 3 novel DCM subtypes were identified: profibrotic metabolic, mild nonfibrotic, and biventricular impairment. Prognosis differed between subtypes in both the derivation (P < 0.0001) and validation cohorts. The novel profibrotic metabolic subtype had more diabetes, universal myocardial fibrosis, preserved right ventricular function, and elevated creatinine. For clinical application, 5 variables were sufficient for classification (left and right ventricular end-systolic volumes, left atrial volume, myocardial fibrosis, and creatinine). Adding the novel DCM subtype improved the C-statistic from 0.60 to 0.76. Interleukin-4 receptor-alpha was identified as a novel prognostic biomarker in derivation (HR: 3.6; 95% CI: 1.9-6.5; P = 0.00002) and validation cohorts (HR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.3-2.8; P = 0.00005). CONCLUSIONS: Three reproducible, mechanistically distinct DCM subtypes were identified using widely available clinical and biological data, adding prognostic value to traditional risk models. They may improve patient selection for novel interventions, thereby enabling precision medicine.

Using Negative Control Outcomes and Difference-in-Differences Analysis to Estimate Treatment Effects in an Entirely Treated Cohort: The Effect of Ivacaftor in Cystic Fibrosis.

When an entire cohort of patients receives a treatment, it is difficult to estimate the treatment effect in the treated because there are no directly comparable untreated patients. Attempts can be made to find a suitable control group (e.g., historical controls), but underlying differences between the treated and untreated can result in bias. Here we show how negative control outcomes combined with difference-in-differences analysis can be used to assess bias in treatment effect estimates and obtain unbiased estimates under certain assumptions. Causal diagrams and potential outcomes are used to explain the methods and assumptions. We apply the methods to UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry data to investigate the effect of ivacaftor, introduced in 2012 for a subset of the cystic fibrosis population with a particular genotype, on lung function and annual rate (days/year) of receiving intravenous (IV) antibiotics (i.e., IV days). We consider 2 negative control outcomes: outcomes measured in the pre-ivacaftor period and outcomes among persons ineligible for ivacaftor because of their genotype. Ivacaftor was found to improve lung function in year 1 (an approximately 6.5-percentage-point increase in ppFEV1), was associated with reduced lung function decline (an approximately 0.5-percentage-point decrease in annual ppFEV1 decline, though confidence intervals included 0), and reduced the annual rate of IV days (approximately 60% over 3 years).

Second-Line Tisagenlecleucel or Standard Care in Aggressive B-Cell Lymphoma.

BACKGROUND: Patient outcomes are poor for aggressive B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphomas not responding to or progressing within 12 months after first-line therapy. Tisagenlecleucel is an anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapy approved for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after at least two treatment lines. METHODS: We conducted an international phase 3 trial involving patients with aggressive lymphoma that was refractory to or progressing within 12 months after first-line therapy. Patients were randomly assigned to receive tisagenlecleucel with optional bridging therapy (tisagenlecleucel group) or salvage chemotherapy and autologous hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation (HSCT) (standard-care group). The primary end point was event-free survival, defined as the time from randomization to stable or progressive disease at or after the week 12 assessment or death. Crossover to receive tisagenlecleucel was allowed if a defined event occurred at or after the week 12 assessment. Other end points included response and safety. RESULTS: A total of 322 patients underwent randomization. At baseline, the percentage of patients with high-grade lymphomas was higher in the tisagenlecleucel group than in the standard-care group (24.1% vs. 16.9%), as was the percentage with an International Prognostic Index score (range, 0 to 5, with higher scores indicating a worse prognosis) of 2 or higher (65.4% vs. 57.5%). A total of 95.7% of the patients in the tisagenlecleucel group received tisagenlecleucel; 32.5% of the patients in the standard-care group received autologous HSCT. The median time from leukapheresis to tisagenlecleucel infusion was 52 days. A total of 25.9% of the patients in the tisagenlecleucel group had lymphoma progression at week 6, as compared with 13.8% of those in the standard-care group. The median event-free survival in both groups was 3.0 months (hazard ratio for event or death in the tisagenlecleucel group, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.40; P = 0.61). A response occurred in 46.3% of the patients in the tisagenlecleucel group and in 42.5% in the standard-care group. Ten patients in the tisagenlecleucel group and 13 in the standard-care group died from adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Tisagenlecleucel was not superior to standard salvage therapy in this trial. Additional studies are needed to assess which patients may obtain the most benefit from each approach. (Funded by Novartis; BELINDA ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03570892.).

Prognostic Significance of Nonischemic Myocardial Fibrosis in Patients With Normal LV Volumes and Ejection-Fraction.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to investigate the prognostic significance of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) in patients without coronary artery disease and with normal range left ventricular (LV) volumes and ejection fraction. BACKGROUND: Nonischemic patterns of LGE with normal LV volumes and ejection fraction are increasingly detected on cardiovascular magnetic resonance, but their prognostic significance, and consequently management, is uncertain. METHODS: Patients with midwall/subepicardial LGE and normal LV volumes, wall thickness, and ejection fraction on cardiovascular magnetic resonance were enrolled and compared to a control group without LGE. The primary outcome was actual or aborted sudden cardiac death (SCD). RESULTS: Of 748 patients enrolled, 401 had LGE and 347 did not. The median age was 50 years (interquartile range: 38-61 years), LV ejection fraction 66% (interquartile range: 62%-70%), and 287 (38%) were women. Scan indications included chest pain (40%), palpitation (33%) and breathlessness (13%). No patient experienced SCD and only 1 LGE+ patient (0.13%) had an aborted SCD in the 11th follow-up year. Over a median of 4.3 years, 30 patients (4.0%) died. All-cause mortality was similar for LGE+/- patients (3.7% vs 4.3%; P = 0.71) and was associated with age (HR: 2.04 per 10 years; 95% CI: 1.46-2.79; P < 0.001). Twenty-one LGE+ and 4 LGE- patients had an unplanned cardiovascular hospital admission (HR: 7.22; 95% CI: 4.26-21.17; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: There was a low SCD risk during long-term follow-up in patients with LGE but otherwise normal LV volumes and ejection fraction. Mortality was driven by age and not LGE presence, location, or extent, although the latter was associated with greater cardiovascular hospitalization for suspected myocarditis and symptomatic ventricular tachycardia.

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance predictors of heart failure in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: the role of myocardial replacement fibrosis and the microcirculation.

INTRODUCTION: Heart failure (HF) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Predictors of HF, in particular the role of myocardial fibrosis and microvascular ischemia remain unclear. We assessed the predictive value of cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) for development of HF in HCM in an observational cohort study. METHODS: Serial patients with HCM underwent CMR, including adenosine first-pass perfusion, left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) volumes indexed to body surface area (i) and late gadolinium enhancement (%LGE- as a % of total myocardial mass). We used a composite endpoint of HF death, cardiac transplantation, and progression to NYHA class III/IV. RESULTS: A total of 543 patients with HCM underwent CMR, of whom 94 met the composite endpoint at baseline. The remaining 449 patients were followed for a median of 5.6 years. Thirty nine patients (8.7%) reached the composite endpoint of HF death (n = 7), cardiac transplantation (n = 2) and progression to NYHA class III/IV (n = 20). The annual incidence of HF was 2.0 per 100 person-years, 95% CI (1.6-2.6). Age, previous non-sustained ventricular tachycardia, LV end-systolic volume indexed to body surface area (LVESVI), LA volume index ; LV ejection fraction, %LGE and presence of mitral regurgitation were significant univariable predictors of HF, with LVESVI (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.16-1.78, p = 0.001), %LGE per 10% (HR 1.44, 95%CI 1.14-1.82, p = 0.002) age (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.06-1.77, p = 0.02) and mitral regurgitation (HR 2.6, p = 0.02) remaining independently predictive on multivariable analysis. The presence or extent of inducible perfusion defect assessed using a visual score did not predict outcome (p = 0.16, p = 0.27 respectively). DISCUSSION: The annual incidence of HF in a contemporary ambulatory HCM population undergoing CMR is low. Myocardial fibrosis and LVESVI are strongly predictive of future HF, however CMR visual assessment of myocardial perfusion was not.

Predictors and Mechanisms of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients With Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HC) is associated with significant symptomatic deterioration, heart failure, and thromboembolic disease. There is a need for better mechanistic insight and improved identification of at risk patients. We used cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) to assess predictors of AF in HC, in particular the role of myocardial fibrosis. Consecutive patients with HC referred for CMR 2003 to 2013 were prospectively enrolled. CMR parameters including left ventricular volumes, presence and percentage of late gadolinium enhancement in the left ventricle (%LGE) and left atrial volume index (LAVi) were measured. Overall, 377 patients were recruited (age 62 ± 14 years, 73% men). Sixty-two patients (16%) developed new-onset AF during a median follow up of 4.5 (interquartile range 2.9 to 6.0) years. Multivariable analysis revealed %LGE (hazard ratio [HR] 1.3 per 10% (confidence interval: 1.0 to 1.5; p = 0.02), LAVi (HR 1.4 per 10 mL/m2[1.2 to 1.5; p < 0.001]), age at HC diagnosis, nonsustained ventricular tachycardia and diabetes to be independent predictors of AF. We constructed a simple risk prediction score for future AF based on the multivariable model with a Harrell's C-statistic of 0.73. In conclusion, the extent of ventricular fibrosis and LA volume independently predicted AF in patients with HC. This finding suggests a mechanistic relation between fibrosis and future AF in HC. CMR with quantification of fibrosis has incremental value over LV and LA measurements in risk stratification for AF. A risk prediction score may be used to identify patients at high risk of future AF who may benefit from more intensive rhythm monitoring and a lower threshold for oral anticoagulation.

A model based on clinical parameters to identify myocardial late gadolinium enhancement by magnetic resonance in patients with aortic stenosis: An observational study.

OBJECTIVE: With increasing age, the prevalence of aortic stenosis grows exponentially, increasing left heart pressures and potentially leading to myocardial hypertrophy, myocardial fibrosis and adverse outcomes. To identify patients who are at greatest risk, an outpatient model for risk stratification would be of value to better direct patient imaging, frequency of monitoring and expeditious management of aortic stenosis with possible earlier surgical intervention. In this study, a relatively simple model is proposed to identify myocardial fibrosis in patients with a diagnosis of moderate or severe aortic stenosis. DESIGN: Patients with moderate to severe aortic stenosis were enrolled into the study; patient characteristics, blood work, medications as well as transthoracic echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance were used to determine potential identifiers of myocardial fibrosis. SETTING: The Royal Brompton Hospital, London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred and thirteen patients in derivation cohort and 26 patients in validation cohort. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Identification of myocardial fibrosis. RESULTS: Three blood biomarkers (serum platelets, serum urea, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) and left ventricular ejection fraction were shown to be capable of identifying myocardial fibrosis. The model was validated in a separate cohort of 26 patients. CONCLUSIONS: Although further external validation of the model is necessary prior to its use in clinical practice, the proposed clinical model may direct patient care with respect to earlier magnetic resonance imagining, frequency of monitoring and may help in risk stratification for surgical intervention for myocardial fibrosis in patients with aortic stenosis.

Predictors of left ventricular remodelling in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy - a cardiovascular magnetic resonance study.

AIMS: There is an important need for better biomarkers to predict left ventricular (LV) remodelling in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). We undertook a comprehensive assessment of cardiac structure and myocardial composition to determine predictors of remodelling. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of patients with recent-onset DCM with cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) assessment of ventricular structure and function, extracellular volume (T1 mapping), myocardial strain, myocardial scar (late gadolinium enhancement) and contractile reserve (dobutamine stress). Regression analyses were used to evaluate predictors of change in LV ejection fraction (LVEF) over 12 months. We evaluated 56 participants (34 DCM patients, median LVEF 43%; 22 controls). Absolute LV contractile reserve predicted change in LVEF (1% increase associated with 0.4% increase in LVEF at 12 months, P = 0.02). Baseline myocardial strain (P = 0.39 global longitudinal strain), interstitial myocardial fibrosis (P = 0.41), replacement myocardial fibrosis (P = 0.25), and right ventricular contractile reserve (P = 0.17) were not associated with LV reverse remodelling. There was a poor correlation between contractile reserve and either LV extracellular volume fraction (r = -0.22, P = 0.23) or baseline LVEF (r = 0.07, P = 0.62). Men were more likely to experience adverse LV remodelling (P = 0.01) but age (P = 0.88) and disease-modifying heart failure medication (beta-blocker, P = 0.28; angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, P = 0.92) did not predict follow-up LVEF. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial recovery of LV function occurs within 12 months in most patients with recent-onset DCM. Women had the greatest improvement in LVEF. A low LV contractile reserve measured by dobutamine stress CMR appears to identify patients whose LVEF is less likely to recover.

Microvascular Dysfunction in Dilated Cardiomyopathy: A Quantitative Stress Perfusion Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Study.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to quantify myocardial blood flow (MBF) and myocardial perfusion reserve (MPR) in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and examine the relationship between myocardial perfusion and adverse left ventricular (LV) remodeling. BACKGROUND: Although regarded as a nonischemic condition, DCM has been associated with microvascular dysfunction, which is postulated to play a role in its pathogenesis. However, the relationship of the resulting perfusion abnormalities to myocardial fibrosis and the degree of LV remodeling is unclear. METHODS: A total of 65 patients and 35 healthy control subjects underwent adenosine (140 µg/kg/min) stress perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance with late gadolinium enhancement imaging. Stress and rest MBF and MPR were derived using a modified Fermi-constrained deconvolution algorithm. RESULTS: Patients had significantly higher global rest MBF compared with control subjects (1.73 ± 0.42 ml/g/min vs. 1.14 ± 0.42 ml/g/min; p < 0.001). In contrast, global stress MBF was significantly lower versus control subjects (3.07 ± 1.02 ml/g/min vs. 3.53 ± 0.79 ml/g/min; p = 0.02), resulting in impaired MPR in the DCM group (1.83 ± 0.58 vs. 3.50 ± 1.45; p < 0.001). Global stress MBF (2.70 ± 0.89 ml/g/min vs. 3.44 ± 1.03 ml/g/min; p = 0.017) and global MPR (1.67 ± 0.61 vs. 1.99 ± 0.50; p = 0.047) were significantly reduced in patients with DCM with LV ejection fraction ≤35% compared with those with LV ejection fraction >35%. Segments with fibrosis had lower rest MBF (mean difference: -0.12 ml/g/min; 95% confidence interval: -0.23 to -0.01 ml/g/min; p = 0.035) and lower stress MBF (mean difference: -0.15 ml/g/min; 95% confidence interval: -0.28 to -0.03 ml/g/min; p = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with DCM exhibit microvascular dysfunction, the severity of which is associated with the degree of LV impairment. However, rest MBF is elevated rather than reduced in DCM. If microvascular dysfunction contributes to the pathogenesis of DCM, then the underlying mechanism is more likely to involve stress-induced repetitive stunning rather than chronic myocardial hypoperfusion.

Impact of known or new-onset atrial fibrillation on 2-year cardiovascular event rate in patients with acute coronary syndromes: results from the prospective EPICOR Registry.

BACKGROUND:: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity in acute coronary syndrome patients, but impact on outcomes beyond 1 year is unclear. METHODS:: This was a post-hoc analysis from the long-tErm follow-uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients (EPICOR) registry (NCT01171404), a prospective, observational study conducted in Europe and Latin America, which enrolled acute coronary syndrome survivors at discharge. Antithrombotic management patterns, mortality, a composite endpoint of death/new non-fatal myocardial infarction/stroke and bleeding events were assessed after 2 years of follow-up in patients with or without AF. RESULTS:: Of 10,568 patients enrolled, 397 (4.7%) had prior AF and 382 (3.6%) new-onset AF during index hospitalisation. Fewer patients with AF underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (52.1% vs. 66.6%; P<0.0001). At discharge, fewer AF patients received dual antiplatelet therapy (71.6% vs. 89.5%; P<0.0001); oral anticoagulant use was higher in AF patients but was still infrequent (35.0% vs. 2.5%; P<0.0001). Use of dual antiplatelet therapy and oral anticoagulants declined over follow-up with over 50% of all AF/no AF patients remaining on dual antiplatelet therapy (55.6% vs. 60.6%), and 23.3% (new-onset AF) to 42.1% (prior AF) on oral anticoagulants at 2 years. At 2 years, mortality, composite endpoint and bleeding rates were higher in AF patients (all P<0.0001) compared to patients without AF. On multivariable analysis, the risk of mortality or the composite endpoint was significant for prior AF ( P=0.003, P=0.001) but not new-onset AF ( P=0.88, P=0.92). CONCLUSIONS:: Acute coronary syndrome patients with AF represent a high-risk group with increased event rates during long-term follow-up. Prior AF is an independent predictor of mortality and/or ischaemic events at 2 years. Use of anticoagulants in AF after acute coronary syndrome is still suboptimal.

Predicting two-year mortality from discharge after acute coronary syndrome: An internationally-based risk score.

BACKGROUND: Long-term risk of post-discharge mortality associated with acute coronary syndrome remains a concern. The development of a model to reliably estimate two-year mortality risk from hospital discharge post-acute coronary syndrome will help guide treatment strategies. METHODS: EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients, NCT01171404) and EPICOR Asia (EPICOR Asia, NCT01361386) are prospective observational studies of 23,489 patients hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome event, who survived to discharge and were then followed up for two years. Patients were enrolled from 28 countries across Europe, Latin America and Asia. Risk scoring for two-year all-cause mortality risk was developed using identified predictive variables and forward stepwise Cox regression. Goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power was estimated. RESULTS: Within two years of discharge 5.5% of patients died. We identified 17 independent mortality predictors: age, low ejection fraction, no coronary revascularization/thrombolysis, elevated serum creatinine, poor EQ-5D score, low haemoglobin, previous cardiac or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated blood glucose, on diuretics or an aldosterone inhibitor at discharge, male sex, low educational level, in-hospital cardiac complications, low body mass index, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction diagnosis, and Killip class. Geographic variation in mortality risk was seen following adjustment for other predictive variables. The developed risk-scoring system provided excellent discrimination (c-statistic=0.80, 95% confidence interval=0.79-0.82) with a steep gradient in two-year mortality risk: >25% (top decile) vs. ~1% (bottom quintile). A simplified risk model with 11 predictors gave only slightly weaker discrimination (c-statistic=0.79, 95% confidence interval =0.78-0.81). CONCLUSIONS: This risk score for two-year post-discharge mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients ( www.acsrisk.org ) can facilitate identification of high-risk patients and help guide tailored secondary prevention measures.

Withdrawal of pharmacological treatment for heart failure in patients with recovered dilated cardiomyopathy (TRED-HF): an open-label, pilot, randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with dilated cardiomyopathy whose symptoms and cardiac function have recovered often ask whether their medications can be stopped. The safety of withdrawing treatment in this situation is unknown. METHODS: We did an open-label, pilot, randomised trial to examine the effect of phased withdrawal of heart failure medications in patients with previous dilated cardiomyopathy who were now asymptomatic, whose left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) had improved from less than 40% to 50% or greater, whose left ventricular end-diastolic volume (LVEDV) had normalised, and who had an N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) concentration less than 250 ng/L. Patients were recruited from a network of hospitals in the UK, assessed at one centre (Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Foundation Trust, London, UK), and randomly assigned (1:1) to phased withdrawal or continuation of treatment. After 6 months, patients in the continued treatment group had treatment withdrawn by the same method. The primary endpoint was a relapse of dilated cardiomyopathy within 6 months, defined by a reduction in LVEF of more than 10% and to less than 50%, an increase in LVEDV by more than 10% and to higher than the normal range, a two-fold rise in NT-pro-BNP concentration and to more than 400 ng/L, or clinical evidence of heart failure, at which point treatments were re-established. The primary analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02859311. FINDINGS: Between April 21, 2016, and Aug 22, 2017, 51 patients were enrolled. 25 were randomly assigned to the treatment withdrawal group and 26 to continue treatment. Over the first 6 months, 11 (44%) patients randomly assigned to treatment withdrawal met the primary endpoint of relapse compared with none of those assigned to continue treatment (Kaplan-Meier estimate of event rate 45·7% [95% CI 28·5-67·2]; p=0·0001). After 6 months, 25 (96%) of 26 patients assigned initially to continue treatment attempted its withdrawal. During the following 6 months, nine patients met the primary endpoint of relapse (Kaplan-Meier estimate of event rate 36·0% [95% CI 20·6-57·8]). No deaths were reported in either group and three serious adverse events were reported in the treatment withdrawal group: hospital admissions for non-cardiac chest pain, sepsis, and an elective procedure. INTERPRETATION: Many patients deemed to have recovered from dilated cardiomyopathy will relapse following treatment withdrawal. Until robust predictors of relapse are defined, treatment should continue indefinitely. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, Alexander Jansons Foundation, Royal Brompton Hospital and Imperial College London, Imperial College Biomedical Research Centre, Wellcome Trust, and Rosetrees Trust.

Outcome in Dilated Cardiomyopathy Related to the Extent, Location, and Pattern of Late Gadolinium Enhancement.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate the association between the extent, location, and pattern of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and outcome in a large dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) cohort. BACKGROUND: The relationship between LGE and prognosis in DCM is incompletely understood. METHODS: The authors examined the association between LGE and all-cause mortality and a sudden cardiac death (SCD) composite based on the extent, location, and pattern of LGE in DCM. RESULTS: Of 874 patients (588 men, median age 52 years) followed for a median of 4.9 years, 300 (34.3%) had nonischemic LGE. Estimated adjusted hazard ratios for patients with an LGE extent of 0 to 2.55%, 2.55% to 5.10%, and >5.10%, respectively, were 1.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99 to 2.55), 1.56 (95% CI: 0.96 to 2.54), and 2.31 (95% CI: 1.50 to 3.55) for all-cause mortality, and 2.79 (95% CI: 1.42 to 5.49), 3.86 (95% CI: 2.09 to 7.13), and 4.87 (95% CI: 2.78 to 8.53) for the SCD endpoint. There was a marked nonlinear relationship between LGE extent and outcome such that even small amounts of LGE predicted a substantial increase in risk. The presence of septal LGE was associated with increased mortality, but SCD was most associated with the combined presence of septal and free-wall LGE. Predictive models using LGE presence and location were superior to models based on LGE extent or pattern. CONCLUSIONS: In DCM, the presence of septal LGE is associated with a large increase in the risk of death and SCD events, even when the extent is small. SCD risk is greatest with concomitant septal and free-wall LGE. The incremental value of LGE extent beyond small amounts and LGE pattern is limited.

Absence of Myocardial Fibrosis Predicts Favorable Long-Term Survival in New-Onset Heart Failure.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial fibrosis, identified by late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance, predicts outcomes in chronic heart failure (HF). Its prognostic significance in new-onset HF and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is unclear. We investigated whether the pattern and extent of fibrosis predict survival in new-onset HF and reduced LVEF of initially uncertain pathogenesis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 120 consecutive patients with new-onset (<6 months) HF and reduced LVEF, 31 (26%) had infarct fibrosis, 25 (21%) had midwall fibrosis, and 64 (53%) had no fibrosis. During median follow-up of 8.9 years, 33 (28%) patients died. Patients with infarct fibrosis (hazard ratios [HR], 3.32; 95% CI, 1.46-7.58; P=0.004) or midwall fibrosis (HR, 2.99; 95% CI, 1.24-7.19; P=0.014) were more likely to die compared with those without fibrosis. On multivariable analysis, the pattern and extent of fibrosis were both associated with all-cause mortality (by fibrosis pattern: infarct: HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 1.08-6.27; P=0.033; midwall: HR, 2.64; 95% CI, 1.08-6.47; P=0.034; by fibrosis extent per 1%: HR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.12; P<0.001). Fibrosis pattern also predicted composites of cardiovascular mortality or aborted sudden cardiac death (infarct: HR, 3.45; 95% CI, 1.20-9.90; P=0.022; midwall: HR, 6.59; 95% CI, 2.26-19.22; P<0.001), and all-cause mortality, HF hospitalization, or aborted sudden cardiac death (infarct: HR, 2.69; 95% CI, 1.26-5.76; P=0.011; midwall fibrosis: HR, 2.97; 95% CI, 1.37-6.45; P=0.006). Addition of fibrosis pattern to LVEF improved risk prediction for all-cause mortality (LVEF versus LVEF+fibrosis C statistic: 0.66 versus 0.71; P=0.033). Importantly, the absence of fibrosis heralded a favorable prognosis with an 85% survival rate over the duration of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern and extent of myocardial fibrosis predict adverse outcomes in new-onset HF and reduced LVEF. In contrast, the absence of fibrosis portends a durable warranty period with a low incidence of adverse events. These findings support a role for late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the early risk stratification of patients with HF of uncertain pathogenesis.

Osteoprotegerin and Myocardial Fibrosis in Patients with Aortic Stenosis.

Left ventricular myocardial fibrosis in patients with aortic stenosis (AS) confers worse prognosis. Plasma osteoprotegerin (OPG), a cytokine from the TNF receptor family, correlates with the degree of valve calcification in AS, reflecting the activity of the tissue RANKL/RANK/OPG (receptor activator of nuclear factor κΒ ligand/RANK/osteoprotegerin) axis, and is associated with poorer outcomes in AS. Its association with myocardial fibrosis is unknown. We hypothesised that OPG levels would reflect the extent of myocardial fibrosis in AS. We included 110 consecutive patients with AS who had undergone late-gadolinium contrast enhanced cardiovascular magnetic resonance (LGE-CMR). Patients were characterised according to pattern of fibrosis (no fibrosis, midwall fibrosis, or chronic myocardial infarction fibrosis). Serum OPG was measured with ELISA and compared between groups defined by valve stenosis severity. Some 36 patients had no fibrosis, 38 had midwall fibrosis, and 36 had chronic infarction. Patients with midwall fibrosis did not have higher levels of OPG compared to those without fibrosis (6.78 vs. 5.25 pmol/L, p = 0.12). There was no difference between those with midwall or chronic myocardial infarction fibrosis (6.78 vs. 6.97 pmol/L, p = 0.27). However, OPG levels in patients with chronic myocardial infarction fibrosis were significantly higher than those without fibrosis (p = 0.005).

External Aortic Root Support to Prevent Aortic Dilatation in Patients With Marfan Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Personalized external aortic root support (PEARS) was introduced in 2004 for prevention of aortic root dilatation in Marfan patients. The individual's aortic root is replicated by 3-dimensional printing. A polymer mesh sleeve is manufactured, which is implanted with the aim to support and stabilize the aortic wall. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to assess effectiveness of PEARS for prevention of aortic root dilatation in Marfan patients. METHODS: A total of 24 consecutive Marfan patients operated 2004 to 2012 were prospectively monitored with magnetic resonance imaging. Following a pre-defined protocol, baseline and follow-up aorta measurements were made in a blinded random sequence. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 33 ± 13.3 years (range: 16 to 58 years), and the mean aortic root diameter was 45 ± 2.8 mm (range: 41 to 52 mm). Follow-up was 6.3 ± 2.6 years. There was no increase in the aortic root and ascending aorta diameters, but there was a tendency toward reduction: annulus diameter 28.9 ± 2.3 mm to 28.5 ± 2.4 mm (change -0.39 mm, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.05 to 0.27 mm), sinus of Valsalva diameter 44.9 ± 2.9 mm to 44.5 ± 3.0 mm (change -0.37 mm, 95% CI: -1.23 to 0.51 mm), and ascending aorta diameter 32.4 ± 3.6 mm to 32.3 ± 3.7 mm (change -0.10 mm, 95% CI: -0.92 to 0.74 mm). In the same period, the descending aorta diameter increased from 22.9 ± 2.4 mm to 24.2 ± 3.0 mm (change 1.32 mm, 95% CI: 0.70 to 1.94 mm; p < 0.001) with a tendency toward increase in aortic arch diameter 24.1 ± 2.0 mm to 24.5 ± 2.8 mm (change 0.41 mm, 95% CI: -0.56 to 1.37 mm). CONCLUSIONS: PEARS is effective in stabilizing the aortic root and preventing its dilatation. It is a viable alternative for prevention of aortic root dissection in Marfan patients.

Sex- and age-based differences in the natural history and outcome of dilated cardiomyopathy.

AIM: To evaluate the relationship between sex, age and outcome in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used proportional hazard modelling to examine the association between sex, age and all-cause mortality in consecutive patients with DCM. Overall, 881 patients (290 women, median age 52 years) were followed for a median of 4.9 years. Women were more likely to present with heart failure (64.0% vs. 54.5%; P = 0.007) and had more severe symptoms (P < 0.0001) compared to men. Women had smaller left ventricular end-diastolic volume (125 mL/m2 vs. 135 mL/m2 ; P < 0.001), higher left ventricular ejection fraction (40.2% vs. 37.9%; P = 0.019) and were less likely to have mid-wall late gadolinium enhancement (23.0% vs. 38.9%; P < 0.0001). During follow-up, 149 (16.9%) patients died, including 41 (4.7%) who died suddenly. After adjustment, all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.61, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.41-0.92; P = 0.018] was lower in women, with similar trends for cardiovascular (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.35-1.05; P = 0.07), non-sudden (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.39-1.02; P = 0.06) and sudden death (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.30-1.63; P = 0.41). All-cause mortality (per 10 years: HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.20-1.55; P < 0.0001) and non-sudden death (per 10 years: HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.26-1.82; P < 0.00001) increased with age. Cumulative incidence curves confirmed favourable outcomes, particularly in women and those <60 years. Increased all-cause mortality in patients >60 years of age was driven by non-sudden death. CONCLUSION: Women with DCM have better survival compared to men, which may partly be due to less severe left ventricular dysfunction and a smaller scar burden. There is increased mortality driven by non-sudden death in patients >60 years of age that is less marked in women. Outcomes with contemporary treatment were favourable, with a low incidence of sudden death.

Estimating long-term treatment effects in observational data: A comparison of the performance of different methods under real-world uncertainty.

In the presence of time-dependent confounding, there are several methods available to estimate treatment effects. With correctly specified models and appropriate structural assumptions, any of these methods could provide consistent effect estimates, but with real-world data, all models will be misspecified and it is difficult to know if assumptions are violated. In this paper, we investigate five methods: inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models, history-adjusted marginal structural models, sequential conditional mean models, g-computation formula, and g-estimation of structural nested models. This work is motivated by an investigation of the effects of treatments in cystic fibrosis using the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry data focussing on two outcomes: lung function (continuous outcome) and annual number of days receiving intravenous antibiotics (count outcome). We identified five features of this data that may affect the performance of the methods: misspecification of the causal null, long-term treatment effects, effect modification by time-varying covariates, misspecification of the direction of causal pathways, and censoring. In simulation studies, under ideal settings, all five methods provide consistent estimates of the treatment effect with little difference between methods. However, all methods performed poorly under some settings, highlighting the importance of using appropriate methods based on the data available. Furthermore, with the count outcome, the issue of non-collapsibility makes comparison between methods delivering marginal and conditional effects difficult. In many situations, we would recommend using more than one of the available methods for analysis, as if the effect estimates are very different, this would indicate potential issues with the analyses.

Phenotype and Clinical Outcomes of Titin Cardiomyopathy.

BACKGROUND: Improved understanding of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) due to titin truncation (TTNtv) may help guide patient stratification. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to establish relationships among TTNtv genotype, cardiac phenotype, and outcomes in DCM. METHODS: In this prospective, observational cohort study, DCM patients underwent clinical evaluation, late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance, TTN sequencing, and adjudicated follow-up blinded to genotype for the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, and major arrhythmic and major heart failure events. RESULTS: Of 716 subjects recruited (mean age 53.5 ± 14.3 years; 469 men [65.5%]; 577 [80.6%] New York Heart Association function class I/II), 83 (11.6%) had TTNtv. Patients with TTNtv were younger at enrollment (49.0 years vs. 54.1 years; p = 0.002) and had lower indexed left ventricular mass (5.1 g/m2 reduction; padjusted = 0.03) compared with patients without TTNtv. There was no difference in biventricular ejection fraction between TTNtv+/- groups. Overall, 78 of 604 patients (12.9%) met the primary endpoint (median follow-up 3.9 years; interquartile range: 2.0 to 5.8 years), including 9 of 71 patients with TTNtv (12.7%) and 69 of 533 (12.9%) without. There was no difference in the composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death, heart failure, or arrhythmic events, for patients with or without TTNtv (hazard ratio adjusted for primary endpoint: 0.92 [95% confidence interval: 0.45 to 1.87]; p = 0.82). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, prospective, genotype-phenotype study of ambulatory DCM patients, we show that prognostic factors for all-cause DCM also predict outcome in TTNtv DCM, and that TTNtv DCM does not appear to be associated with worse medium-term prognosis.